Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
davo
Thats good to hear.
By the same token, Taylormade may find it “hard to ignore” being compared to Josef Goebbels for having the temerity to criticise Richard Marles.
i think we should help ucrane stop rusia invation still think it was a mistake not to send troops in desbite ucranes many requests for nato membership shorly us wont send troops to tiwon if china invaded maybi us should focus on triying to restore honcongs democrasy after china broke its 1999 promis off one country 2 systems but after strong retorick honcong is not under total ccp control and us prepairing to make ucrane sell some off there country to rusi as a suposid negociation whiy will us not stand up to putin ucrane all ready lost crimea and dombask think they have lost enough terotory
RIP Judith Durham. A beautiful voice.
C@t
Thanks, Dr John. Sticks and stones
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And play some Stones!
My favourite band and even house partied with them in St Kilda in 1966 after their Palais show.
Remember learning to sing Georgie girl and mornington ride in primary school.
Boerwar at 4.36 pm and phoenixRED at 4.42
Yes, no less an authority on the US military than Robert McNamara said that luck was a key part of the world surviving the Cuban missile crisis.
For the story about the greatest man of the Cold War, Vasili Arkhipov, see:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/27/vasili-arkhipov-soviet-submarine-captain-who-averted-nuclear-war-awarded-future-of-life-prize
And: https://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/the-man-who-saved-the-world-about-this-episode/871/
There’s a photo of that Russian submarine surfacing the next day, 28 October 1962, at:
https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/nuclear-close-calls-cuban-missile-crisis
Temperatures in his submarine when he used his authority in favour of caution were above 100 deg F.
Note Kennedy’s comment about the idiotic advice he received from US military leaders, not including McNamara, who recognised early on in the crisis that it was a political rather than a military problem:
“These brass hats have one great advantage in their favor. If we listen to them, and do what they want us to do, none of us will be alive later to tell them that they were wrong” (N. Sheehan, A Fiery Peace in a Cold War, 2009, 445) Yet early in the crisis his brother Robert also had brass hat thinking.
Lots of relevant documents are at: https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/index.htm
A good summary of the crisis as it really was, in contrast to official US myth-making about it, is at:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/the-real-cuban-missile-crisis/309190/
Parts of a key book on the crisis by Serhii Plokhy, Socrates’ favourite historian, are available at:
https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Nuclear_Folly/_fHzDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover
The broader context of the crisis is described at: https://sci-hub.ru/10.1017/CHOL9780521837200.005
On Hiroshima Day, Ms Pelosi, would have done more for humanity if she had visited Hiroshima, or demonstrated that she understands the dangers of nuclear weapons, instead of being feted in Taipei. Of course, she could have chosen to do all three, but that would have been too sophisticated for her.
For comments by UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, and Hiroshima’s Mayor, Matsui Kazumi, see:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-06/hiroshima-anniversary-atomic-bombing-russia/101307694
Note the Japanese people are wearing masks, even outdoors in summer. We should learn from them.
Four corners promo just now: toxic culture of fear for whistle-blowers at the U.N. all the way to the top, should be interesting…
nath:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 7:21 pm
[‘I’m on C@t’s side for as long as WB is.’]
That’s not right, the overt implication being that those supporting cat & Player One are attempting to ingratiate themselves with dear moderator.
Mavis, I cast no nasturtiums on anyone else. That’s just me trying to survive.
‘Almost 35,000 Britons in limbo as Portugal fails to issue post-Brexit ID cards .. British nationals living in country are unable to access healthcare, change jobs or travel in and out’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/06/britons-portugal-post-brexit-id-cards
Ray
They could always try the rubber ducky ride from Calais to Dover.
All’s good, nath.
nathsays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 7:39 pm
Mavis, I cast no nasturtiums on anyone else. That’s just me trying to survive.
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Nasturtiums are a plant.
Explain?
Dr John @ #564 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 7:44 pm
It’s a joke, Joyce.
‘Mystery man dubbed ‘The Gentleman’ found in North Sea may have spent most of his life in Australia .. Breakthrough in the decades-old cold case comes after scientists conducted an isotope ratio analysis of the man’s bones’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/06/mystery-man-dubbed-the-gentleman-found-in-north-sea-may-have-spent-most-of-his-life-in-australia
As a Galah I can have a useless view.
When someone attacks you personally you have won. Take the win. You lose if you hit back.
https://wordhistories.net/2020/07/09/cast-nasturtiums/
It’s Timesays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 7:46 pm
Dr John @ #564 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 7:44 pm
nathsays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 7:39 pm
Mavis, I cast no nasturtiums on anyone else. That’s just me trying to survive.
——————————————-
Nasturtiums are a plant.
Explain?
It’s a joke, Joyce.
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With nath’s history here time after time it’s obviously too subtle for you.
“ the article in Pearls and Irritations admonished Nancy Pelosi for going to Taiwan. As the Chinese would expect him to say on their behalf.”
… there you go again, C@t. For all your caterwauling about a ‘kinder gentler blog’, boo hoo, you can’t help yourself. This time, you have effectively called Bob Carr a traitor.
Pelosi wasn’t even mentioned in the article. For the record:
https://johnmenadue.com/bob-carr-keep-the-peace-our-goal/
What the article WAS about is a dystopian future where our national cabinet throws our lot in with an American war with China. The point Carr was making was that the 2022 election appears to be a ‘sliding doors’ moment, thanks in large part due the pivot back to a sensible foreign policy: instead of talking hypotheticals, we should- and are (hopefully) talking keeping the status quo regarding Taiwan.
It appears to me, that Carr is making these comments in support of the current Labor Government, and on behalf of us, Australians, and not the ChiComms. This is the key paragraph:
“ The new Labor government has tugged Australia’s diplomatic language back to where it had always been before the Turnbull-Dutton-Garnaut heresy. This may be the single most weighty contribution of the Albanese government. Even before the election Albanese and Wong had made it clear they weren’t being influenced by the new orthodoxy that declared it “inconceivable” that Australia would not join a war over Taiwan.”
Should I assume that you made the above comment about Carr having actually read the article this afternoon? If so, I really am struggling to see how calling you a warmonger is overreach, because – as Carr points out – the alternative path – ‘the new orthodoxy’ that every word you write about China, Taiwan etc endorses empathically is likely to lead straight to that hypothetical dystopian moment in a not too distant future, or as Carr penned it:
“ If there is conflict between the US and China this is how things might go- a crisis meeting of the Australian cabinet with a resigned air and desultory exchanges, until someone – defence minister or prime minister – says something like, “Well, there’s no alternative, is there?”
And the war comes, to strains of the World War I recruiting song “Australia Will Be There.” The vision is pure dystopia, our national nightmare. It could spell the end of the Australian national story as we know it.”
The clear fact is that you obviously didn’t bother to read the article this morning before off loading on Carr as “reaping the rewards of Chinese sycophantology”, and then following that up with a little drive by shooting of your own when you accused Wranslide and moi as being in the same club of sino sycophants.
It’s incredible the extent to which you are prepared to ‘throw down’ shade at other posters, often – as I’ve just pointed out – in a state of pure unadulterated ignorance of what said posters are actually talking about and yet claim ‘domestic violence’ like victim hood when subjected to return fire.
Boo Hoo C@t.
Dr John @ #569 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 7:50 pm
Please explain.
Please explain.
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see above
I’d like to hear more of Dr John partying with the Stones. I expect before too long he will tell us of the night he spent with Judith Durham.
Times change
A 23-year-old male driver from South Australia was detected by Deniliquin Highway Patrol last weekend pushing his Holden Barina to 162km/h on a 100km/h stretch of the remote Riverina Highway in the state’s far west.
100 mph on a remote road, and it is considered exceptional, how times change.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/holden-barina-driver-busted-at-162kmh/?utm_campaign=syndication&utm_source=smh.com.au&utm_content=article_3&utm_medium=partner
My farther once commented, bugs don’t splatter like that if you hit them at 60 mph.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1555701550319898625
and the amnesty report, and some other recent indicators. coincidence? sometimes i get a feeling the collective biden might be turning away from ukraine. mmm, pivoting away. -a.v.
Evening all. This AFR article earlier today has some interesting comments on Defense, subs and the review
– Macron offered Albo for France to build four interim SSKs (what about SSNs?)
– AFR alleges unions are pushing to build six interim SSKs at ASC (no, build SSNs)
– the RAAF will get a fourth squadron of F35s (sensible)
– the 450 infantry IFVs “loom as a casualty” (sensible)
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/french-made-another-bid-to-albanese-to-build-submarines-20220804-p5b764
Andrew Earlwood and I have both previously suggested that the option of French SSNs was discarded too soon. If France was still willing to build four SSKs for the RAN in Cherbourg it would be fascinating to ask if they might build 2 or 3 SSNs instead? This would solve the timing problem the RAN faces with both introducing SSNs and keeping serviceable subs in the water in the mean time.
This assumes 8 or 9 Australian built SSNs would then commence building at ASC as promised, but of the French design not UK or US. Naval would then supply the reactor compartments but otherwise it would proceed as per the Attack Class.
Getting a few SSNs built in France would be a cost saving compared to Australian construction, and much quicker to start. 8 built at ASC would satisfy promises.
Hang in there c@t. Thoughts and Prayers.
nathsays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 8:04 pm
I’d like to hear more of Dr John partying with the Stones. I expect before too long he will tell us of the night he spent with Judith Durham.
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Your over fertilizing your nasturtiums!
Correction to my above post. there was one paragraph mentioning Pelosi’s visit in that Carr article today:
“ Definitely to be avoided is saying of the Pelosi visit that “it shows America’s commitment to the region”- a formula that was briefly picked up by Marles and echoed by Peter Khalil as chair of the Joint Intelligence and Security Committee but more recently relegated. It should stay relegated. The simple fact is White House advisors and the American military did not want the Pelosi visit. They did not see it as a useful symbol- of US commitment to the region or anything else.”
Is that evidence of sino sycophancy? Or talking on behalf of the chi-comms? Carr goes on to say this:
“ Action that ramps up tensions in the strait is, in fact, a threat to a continuing American presence in the region. Hugh White points out that a showdown over Taiwan involves a high risk of American defeat. (I would add, if not a defeat, a risk of both sides fighting to a draw).
Either defeat or draw sends a message to the whole region that America does not prevail in the Western Pacific. It could be an invitation for an administration to withdraw from Asia- gradually, or in a Kabul style rush. That means it’s in Australia’s interest that both sides exercise restraint and avoid provocative gestures like the Pelosi adventure. Avoid anything that risks war and the US defeat that would despatch American power from our north.”
@andrew_earlwood please don’t be sensible. Please encourage war with China. I am sure we will be competitive when our subs arrive in 49 years time or when the floatilla of ASPI sea doos arrive
Vale Judith Durham
https://youtu.be/z4ZipKdI1sY
And Judith Durham at the 1994 Grand Final pre match entertainment…
https://youtu.be/xjYEskzWt6I
May I also add vale Judith Durham.
Her music was not my cup of tea but she had a beautiful voice and I heard a lot of it. Growing up my mum and dad (both much more conservative than moi) both loved the Seekers and so it was a frequent sound in our home. In fact I didn’t hear much of the Beetles by comparison! I agree the lack of an OA was odd, given she was the star of the show.
@Socrates:
“ If France was still willing to build four SSKs for the RAN in Cherbourg it would be fascinating to ask if they might build 2 or 3 SSNs instead? ”
If the reports of this offer are correct, then my long held assumption that France’s build program for its next gen SSBNs would not get in the way of Naval group building us between 2 and 4 ‘Aussie Suffrens’ in Cherbourg THIS DECADE must also be correct.
This fact alone puts France at the top of the list of preferred SSN providers (unless of course America was prepared to compromise its own order book and build us a couple of ‘Dutton Dreaming Class’ variants of its Virginias).
If Labor could pull this off, we could have between 4 and 6 SSNs in production (spread between Cherbourg and Osborne) by 2030, and 2-3 actually in service by 2035/6 (and up to 8 SSNs in service by 2042). A clear decade ahead of any AUKUS deal.
alfred venison,
Biden and the west are not turning away from Ukraine. The support is serious. The Russians have lost about 41K troops as dead. If you times that by about 2-5 you get an idea of the injuries.
Ukraine is training soldiers and has a massive front line. Not only does it need to defeat Russia it has to push them back, an hold ground. It’s a tough job. Think about the Australian Army without the Airforce, trying to secure a place the size of Queensland. They’d be stretched thin.
One other thing, there are naturla ebbs and flows to this sort of thing. Ukraine has lasted this long, they will last longer. If anything the fight is getting harder because Ukraine doesn’t have that much in the way of good Russian targets to attack anymore. The Ukrainians keep degrading their logistics chains and drawing them to a standstill.
I expect that major offensives in the south will start to occur as Autumn sets in with the Ukrainians looking to use the winter to strengthen their gains before the last little push over summer 23.
And one more Judith Durham.
I remember as a boy in short pants going to a milk bar in Beverly Hills and putting coins in a juke box – the song we played was this…
https://youtu.be/PSxwqBJLU8A
Be cool C@t. 🙂
The women’s bowling gold medal match just finished. After 19 ends, Aussies win by 1. Lot of fun!
“This assumes 8 or 9 Australian built SSNs would then commence building at ASC as promised, but of the French design not UK or US. Naval would then supply the reactor compartments but otherwise it would proceed as per the Attack Class.”
Will be interesting and positive if something like this gets underway. Keep ASC going with the Collins LOTE and ramp up for SSN Barracuda / Attack production.
ItI am comparatively new on this blog. I have not had the chance to build up the level or kudos that comes with being a long time poster. I appreciate that. But I have been relentlessly attacked and ridiculed by the c@t. It started when I dared questioned her assertions that there was a secret Chinese plan to invade Australia and then equated with being a domestic violence abuser because I dared disagree and call her out on her ridiculous stances that risks Australian lives and working class kids I appreciate I have called her out. Referred to her as a branchie. Yes, I should not have.. But to be bullied and harassed by c@t is too much for me and compared and called out as domestic violence abuser is too much . I will try to hang in there. But w@rcat seems insignificant compared to wife beater wranslide. I stood up for Mavis a few days ago against the badgering of the c@t. I realise that wasn’t cool. But I tried to do what was right against the onslaught of the cool kids and the general business c@t.
Dr John @ #578 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 8:10 pm
In 1963 I danced to Judith Durham on several Saturday nights when she sang with my mate Paul’s jazz band at the Jazz Club in the Ironworkers Hall in George St., Sydney, down near the Quay.
Andrew Earlwood, Imacca
Yes exactly re RAN SSNs. A joint Cherbourg and ASC build would be much faster than waiting for ASC alone to start up with UK or US support.
As I have said before, if neither UK nor USA could stump an early SSN build or two to assist the RAN then AUKUS was not much of a bargain for Australia after all. The other stuff we are getting via AUKUS (cyber, missiles, more planes) we were already getting anyway. And we are paying full commercial prices. There is no gift.
Wranslide , I wouldn’t get to het up about anyone posting anonymously on this blog. We all have our moments.
Remember the words of the late, great Neville Wran – your handle’s namesake:
There are two types of people in this world. Those who were born in Balmain, and those who wish they were.
You can’t argue with that!
Thanks Sprocket. I appreciate the reminder. He was a good man despite the attempts by the ABC to undermine his legacy.
I see a certain party here is still doing his best to support the terrorist state. Here’s a bit of relevant information.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheCPTChaos/status/1555740816076840962
I saw some comments on offshore wind power before. I don’t understand the argument.
Yes offshore wind power is more expensive than onshore. It also generates power more of the time but not enough extra power to cancel out the extra cost.
But price and power is not the main advantage. Offshore wind typically blows at different times of day compared to onshore. So a combination of offshore and onshore wind covers a wider range of daily demand than onshore alone. This reduces the need for storage and improves overall RE power supply reliability and economics.
I see no reason to have an ideological view on different forms of RE power. Offshore is a technically feasible option and we should be open to private offers for offshore wind to compete with onshore wind and solar. Where it is viable will vary with region. Also cost will come down over time.
yabbasays:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 8:55 pm
Dr John @ #578 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 8:10 pm
I expect before too long he will tell us of the night he spent with Judith Durham.
In 1963 I danced to Judith Durham on several Saturday nights when she sang with my mate Paul’s jazz band at the Jazz Club in the Ironworkers Hall in George St., Sydney, down near the Quay.
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Yabba don’t.
Next according to nath Judith will be 2 timing us!
Balmain. Isn’t that Greens territory now?
frednk
A Barina can actually do 160? Wow.
Socrates
What gives offshore wind power the edge is its more reliable, has a higher capacity factor and you don’t need to spend as much on firming/backup as a result.