Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 32
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  1. @nath yes Balmain is solid Greens territory now. But the NSW Labor Left still cares deeply about it. It would have the NSW Branch Bankrupt itself to win it back cause outside the inner city/west and perhaps the Hunter it struggles for branch numbers. And there are only so many seats in the inner west/CBD and somebody needs to fund their ambitions.

  2. nath, maybe trending Green now – with a strong Teal undercurrent – but back in the Painters and Dockers Union days, solid ALP..

  3. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:12 pm

    nath, maybe trending Green now – with a strong Teal undercurrent – but back in the Painters and Dockers Union days, solid ALP..
    ________
    Did they run crime in Sydney or was it just a Melbourne thing?

  4. C@t
    A couple of years ago you posted a photo of your house and seemed to be bragging about living so close to a National Park. NSW was on fire at the time.

    The 1st thing i noticed was that it looked overgrown and with what looked like weeds growing up the side of the house. I made a comment and mentioned 3 things. Bushfire plan, snakes and vermin. I also added that if I was your neighbour I would report you to the local council which was probably not wise.

    You then made a comment the other night about foxes passing by your window when you lived there and I commented that they were probably looking for vermin and i also added “god knows what was under that house” which was probably not wise.

    Believe it or not, but after GG’s generosity, I was half tempted to buy you and your sons a whipper snipper when you 1st posted that photo, but could not see how whilst remaining anonymous.

  5. Cud Chewersays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:11 pm
    Dr John

    The Seekers we still big in the 70s. That’s where I remember them from. Many happy memories.
    ——————————————
    I used to see Keith Potger in his garden at his house overlooking Elsternwick Park when I was walking the dog in the early 2000’s

  6. Cud

    Thanks I agree with your comments on offshore wind. The greater generation time I referred to relates to the reliability and need for firming you referred to. The differing time of generation I understand is one of the factors favoring the Gippsland site.

  7. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:17 pm

    Nath, there were allegations….
    ______
    There were a lot more than allegations down here. Starting with the Dock wars of the 70s, a Royal Commission and probably a few hundred dead bodies.

    I think the Melbourne branch was a lot more successful in terms of criminality. The Sydney branch was no doubt outgunned by a bigger criminal gang. The NSW police.

  8. “ Will be interesting and positive if something like this gets underway. Keep ASC going with the Collins LOTE and ramp up for SSN Barracuda / Attack production.”

    My main concern is for this decade and the first half of next. That is the period where we are most vulnerable, given the current shenanigans between ‘Merica and the ChiComms.

    A key concern of the ADF, and our underlying defence policy, must be to enhance capabilities NOW. Not only does that mean many many many long range strike missiles (with throw weights of up to 500kg and ranges between 350-1200nm – of which we have exactly … zero at the moment, notwithstanding 9 years of LNP grandstanding) but also upgrading existing platforms to use such weapons as part of an effective A2-AD kill chain. Frankly 6 SSKs – based in Perth is not enough. i think we need to enhance the time we cabin have boats ‘on station’. At the moment, we can basically have one boat ‘on station’ about 180-200 days a year. However if we used Darwin and Townsville as FOBs – with enough infrastructure and personnel to undertake light maintenance between missions, then we could probably increase that time ‘on station’ to over 700 days per year (ie. 2 boats), a 400% increase in capability.

    We could probably increase that figure to over 1000 days per year ‘on station’ if we could acquire even just two more SSKs this decade. Recently Socrates and I have been ruminating about buying 2-3 foreign built SSKs (and the type 218Sg looks to be a pretty good option), but perhaps there is an even better, cheap and cheerful option, namely acquiring two upgraded Vastergotland boats from either the Swedes or Singaporean navies:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Västergötland-class_submarine

    At the moment, Singapore has an option to acquire another two 218SGs at the end of the current build run of four and retire their recently overhauled and upgraded Vastergotlands (ie. the Archer class). We should encourage Singapore to do so asap, on the basis that we will buy their Archer class boats (and perhaps the plant, equipment and even some of their personnel) to operate alongside our Collins class between say 2028 and 2035 (maybe even permanently based in Darwin), until our new SSN fleet starts to come into service. That would save us from having to find a role for any new SSKs past the middle of next decade, and would also help Singapore completely modernise its own SSK fleet (and Singapore will play an important role in any joint indo-pacific A2-SD network) over the same period.

    Even with a shorter range, Archer class subs could do excellent work patrolling the key passages of the Indonesian archipelago [given that we only would operate these boats for 7 years, I wouldn’t bother with any further upgrades of combat or weapons systems to American kit: they are fine for this specific purpose as they are].

  9. Perhaps the reason offshore wind power is so attractive to both major parties is that – unlike onshore wind and onshore solar – it is more expensive than coal.

    Just like both major parties are so keen on Abbott’s “direct action” policies.

    Odd, don’t you think?

    I do.

  10. sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:31 pm

    nath, some mention of SP bookmaking up here, but otherwise cleared of mis-doing
    _____
    apples and oranges then. The Melbourne branch had the motto; “We catch and kill our own”.

  11. C@t
    A couple of years you made a trip to Melbourne and gave us the pleasure of your insights into how well Victoria was doing under Daniel Andrews.

    I made a comment that if you wanted “some action” go to the McDonald’s on Fitzgerald Road Laverton late on a Friday night.

    You took it as action of a ‘sexual’ nature but I was referring to African Gang action which you had attempted to downplay as an issue in the posts prior.

    Just a misunderstanding that one.

  12. Player One @ #614 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:29 pm

    Perhaps the reason offshore wind power is so attractive to both major parties is that – unlike onshore wind and onshore solar – it is more expensive than coal.

    Just like both major parties are so keen on Abbott’s “direct action” policies.

    Odd, don’t you think?

    I do.

    So is that why the Poms have so much offshore windfarming?

  13. Andrew E

    Sorry I don’t agree with you on the Vastgoterlands. Their hulls are older than the Collins! Built 1983-88. They are OK in Singapore because all the nearby water is very shallow, but not for us.

    They would be costly to maintain and run. Singapore are replacing them for a reason, not much life left. All these old sub options tend to spend a lot of time in dock. The cost to maintain a sub over the last 10 years of its service life is often equal to its capital cost to build. New French or German subs would be a far better option IMO.

  14. It’s Time @ #618 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:37 pm

    Player One @ #614 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:29 pm

    Perhaps the reason offshore wind power is so attractive to both major parties is that – unlike onshore wind and onshore solar – it is more expensive than coal.

    Just like both major parties are so keen on Abbott’s “direct action” policies.

    Odd, don’t you think?

    I do.

    So is that why the Poms have so much offshore windfarming?

    The Poms have nuclear as well. What works for one country won’t necessarily work for another.

  15. Herald Sun 2018
    A young fast food worker was hit over the head with a metal pole as four masked offenders stormed his McDonald’s store in Melbourne’s west early this morning.

    Police say the offenders, described as African in appearance, used concrete to smash their way into the Fitzgerald Rd, Laverton outlet about 3.20am and demanded cash.
    _____________________
    Just for the sake of it.
    Was probably around the time of C@t’s visit as well.

  16. “Perhaps the reason offshore wind power is so attractive to both major parties is that – unlike onshore wind and onshore solar – it is more expensive than coal.”

    wow….i think P1 has now actually lost the plot completely. 🙁

  17. Sprocket. Here’s a sample!

    One of the Melbourne underworld’s great survivors, former Painters and Dockers union hardman Billy “The Texan” Longley, has died.
    Longley, who was convicted of ordering a rival’s murder during the Painters and Dockers wars in the 1970s.

    Longley gained the nickname “The Texan” because he wore a Stetson hat and carried a Colt .45.
    He served 13 years in Pentridge prison after he was found guilty of organising the murder of union rival Pat Shannon.
    Longley was linked to more than a dozen others, in which he denied involvement.

  18. Taylormade @ #617 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:34 pm

    C@t
    A couple of years you made a trip to Melbourne and gave us the pleasure of your insights into how well Victoria was doing under Daniel Andrews.

    I made a comment that if you wanted “some action” go to the McDonald’s on Fitzgerald Road Laverton late on a Friday night.

    You took it as action of a ‘sexual’ nature but I was referring to African Gang action which you had attempted to downplay as an issue in the posts prior.

    Just a misunderstanding that one.

    Social media, it is true, doesn’t do nuance well. And so you have to be specific, especially wrt to societal cues that others may not understand. Otherwise people might take you the wrong way.

    Wrt the ‘African Gangs’, it was probably also the case that I had been to the NSW State Parliament for a meeting just prior to that and had come across the members of the South Sudanese Friendship Society having a meet and greet with Members of Parliament. They were all really polite, and genteel-seeming. So I was sceptical of the claim that ‘African Gangs’ in Victoria could be terrorising Victoria. I just thought it was likely only some bad apples blown out of all proportion. There’s bad apples in every bunch.

    Anyway, go Peter Bol tomorrow in the 800M!

  19. @socrates:

    “ Sorry I don’t agree with you on the Vastgoterlands. Their hulls are older than the Collins! Built 1983-88. They are OK in Singapore because all the nearby water is very shallow, but not for us.”

    I’m only talking about a single 7 year operational cycle – between 2028-35; operating mainly in the Arafura and Solomon seas, and around the Indonesian archipelago. Perfect for us. They may be 40 years old, but they were laid up in ordinary in Sweden for over a decade or more before their complete rebuild and upgrade last decade.

    I suppose if you don’t like my Vastgoterland option, you also wouldn’t be keen on acquiring the 2-3 youngest Rubis class SSNs off the french to operate over the same period …

  20. Victoria says:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:47 pm

    Its really easy to pick which commenters have small dicks on this blog.
    Whatayoudo. If life gives you lemons……
    _______
    Haha. Funniest thing you’ve ever said!

  21. Taylormadesays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:43 pm
    Herald Sun 2018
    A young fast food worker was hit over the head with a metal pole as four masked offenders stormed his McDonald’s store in Melbourne’s west early this morning.

    Police say the offenders, described as African in appearance, used concrete to smash their way into the Fitzgerald Rd, Laverton outlet about 3.20am and demanded cash.
    _____________________
    Just for the sake of it.
    Was probably around the time of C@t’s visit as well.
    ——————————————-
    For the sake of it imbecile are you suggesting C@t was involved?

  22. Victoriasays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 9:47 pm
    Its really easy to pick which commenters have small dicks on this blog.
    Whatayoudo. If life gives you lemons……
    ———————————
    I might be old but I don’t drive a Porsche!

  23. Taylormade @ #608 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 9:19 pm

    C@t
    A couple of years ago you posted a photo of your house and seemed to be bragging about living so close to a National Park. NSW was on fire at the time.

    The 1st thing i noticed was that it looked overgrown and with what looked like weeds growing up the side of the house. I made a comment and mentioned 3 things. Bushfire plan, snakes and vermin. I also added that if I was your neighbour I would report you to the local council which was probably not wise.

    You then made a comment the other night about foxes passing by your window when you lived there and I commented that they were probably looking for vermin and i also added “god knows what was under that house” which was probably not wise.

    Believe it or not, but after GG’s generosity, I was half tempted to buy you and your sons a whipper snipper when you 1st posted that photo, but could not see how whilst remaining anonymous.

    Ah, I see.

    Actually, what you never saw was the property when we moved in. It was an absolute disaster area. The guys who had lived in the house before I moved in with my young family were alcoholics and used to just throw their empty bottles out the kitchen window. And obviously did no gardening. So it was a couple of hectares of native vestigial Temperate Rainforest, interspersed with weeds of every variety imaginable.

    By the time we left I had eliminated virtually all the weeds, grown grass around the house and picked through the dirt for every piece of broken glass I could find so that my children could play there in safety.

    However, we lived downhill from the top of the hill and when it rains, it pours and runs downhill to the creek below us. Hence, it is classified as a Rainforest. So, after the rain and in the heat of summer, and with the fact that there are mosquitos in the air so thick it looks like an Aerogard ad, the native grasses and everything else grows like crazy and so it might be a while before you get out to mow them down. Not being able to carry a Whippersnipper around (this is back in the days of the heavy petrol whippersnipper), I pulled the weeds out by hand. I did get around to it though.

    I will admit, however, one spring I got the fright of my life when I opened up a draw to find that a mother Antechinus had decided to have a litter in there! I would never call them ‘vermin’ though. Plus I migrated them back out into the garage outside once I found them. The perils of living across from a National Park. 🙂

  24. Andrew Earlwood
    “I suppose if you don’t like my Vastgoterland option, you also wouldn’t be keen on acquiring the 2-3 youngest Rubis class SSNs off the french to operate over the same period …”

    No I’m afraid not. Subs really need a lot of maintenance. Old nuclear boats are worst of all. The radiation from the reactor can embrittle the metal around them over time. We have nowhere near the skills at ASC maintenance to handle an old SSN.

    I appreciate you are trying to think laterally, and we both have the same objective. But the lack of good options for old second hand subs is exactly why the failure to start building under the previous government was so scandalous.

    There is no easy way out of our looming capability hole unless someone else can help us by starting to build for the RAN now. Hence my interest in the French build offer. And the sooner ASC can start building our next subs the better.

  25. wranslide @ #636 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:06 pm

    Thank you for your service to National Parks c@t.

    You’re probably being sarcastic, but yeah, I have done a lot in my time. So have my kids. My greatest achievement was getting rid of most of the weeds from the side of the winding road up the hill to home so that the Flannel Flowers had room to establish themselves again on the rocks. It’s now a very pretty site as you drive up when they are flowering.

  26. Does anyone have any guesses on how long Peter Dutton will remain as Opposition Leader? The dearth of talent in the Liberals is obvious when compared to 2007 and they had Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop and Peter Costello who didn’t want the leadership of course. Dutton might shore up the conservative base but there are no moderates left to try and win back the Teal and Green seats. It would be a hard sell to get quality candidates to run against the Teals and Greens when the only prospect is being an opposition backbencher for the foreseeable future. I personally cannot see any way realistic way back for Coalition within two to three terms.

  27. wranslidesays:
    Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 10:06 pm
    Thank you for your service to National Parks c@t.
    —————————————-
    And wran & Taylormade et al have a bridge for sale.

  28. “ There is no easy way out of our looming capability hole unless someone else can help us by starting to build for the RAN now. Hence my interest in the French build offer. And the sooner ASC can start building our next subs the better.”

    It still wouldn’t get us any more subs before 2035.

    So, back to the germans and a hope that they can build us 2 subs to be in service by 2030 (and another 1-2 by 2032) I guess.

  29. Now. Back to some policy issues. I hope Labor reverses the travesty that Gillard imposed on single mums. Disgraceful for a Labor PM. Good article in the SMH this week calling it out and hoping to get a reversal.

  30. Wranslide,
    One thing you need to remember, ‘is almost the equivalent of’ does not = is. Saying someone’s words ‘is almost the equivalent of’ is a very long way from ‘is’ DV. Consider it a teachable moment that words can have a force of their own that may hurt more than you intend. I’m still trying to learn this lesson.

  31. Thank you c@t. I do not get what you are saying. Are you saying I am subjecting you to the equivalence of domestic violence? Or I am? Or I am not?

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