Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all, considering the corporate welfare that was handed out by the shedload during the time of the Coalition government, that the Single Mothers therefore received a reconsideration of their circumstances. The ‘Debt and Deficit Disaster’ mantra wedged Labor into some uncomfortable positions. I think it’s obvious now that there’s enough money to adjust the financial circumstances of those who need to bring up a family on their own. The country won’t go broke if it’s done and you absolutely don’t have to go for a Surplus ridiculously quickly. Most other countries are in a worse economic position and surviving just fine. As will we if we head towards a Surplus at a reasonable and not a breakneck pace.
I hope so c@t. It was (and is) a stain on the legacy, if any, of Gillard especially for a PM who likes to style herself as a feminist. It was and remains a disgraceful episode in Labor history.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, August 6, 2022 at 10:26 pm
It wouldn’t surprise me at all, considering the corporate welfare that was handed out by the shedload during the time of the Coalition government, that the Single Mothers therefore received a reconsideration of their circumstances.
___________________
That’s a bit odd. When I used to rage against the treatment of single mothers by the Howard and Gillard governments I was sure you used to claim with anecdotal evidence that it had done Single Mothers good to be put on less payments, leading to some of them being forced into some employment.
wranslide @ #650 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:24 pm
It’s complicated. Obviously I’m not suggesting something as serious as that. However, whilst there are misdemeanours and crimes in the law, so, to my mind, is there a similar scale of affronts via the written word on social media. So, I think that what you wrote about me, the branchie stuff, wasn’t harmless and rose to the level of a misdemeanour, that is, it hurt me deeply, mainly because it’s just not true. So I alluded to the sort of repetitive verbal abuse that sufferers of DV are subject to. Whilst not making a direct accusation, or not wanting to anyway.
I know I am not as popular or valued on this blog as you are c@t but it hurt and shocked me deeply to have it suggested I had engaged in the equivalence of DV by you.
nath @ #653 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:31 pm
I know. I remember that well. At that time Labor were being caned over the Surplus thing and so I understood why they did it. Kind of.
However, as a Single Mother myself, at that time, having to find enough money to survive on it did make me look at doing something to make that extra bit of income. So I could see the positives in the project. And I’m still making that little bit extra to this day. Plus the local community now has a reliable Dog, Cat and House Minder at their disposal. Win-win. 🙂
wranslide @ #655 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:39 pm
Well I sincerely apologise for that, wranslide.
I guess, as someone who suffered at the hands of a partner that routinely denigrated me it’s a sensitive issue. And one I shouldn’t have over-reacted to.
Incredible victory by Oliver Hoare in the 1500m, just stunning.
“ Incredible victory by Oliver Hoare in the 1500m, just stunning.”
Wow!
https://thenewdaily-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/08/05/australia-taiwan-china/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16597936407525&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthenewdaily.com.au%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Faustralian-politics%2F2022%2F08%2F05%2Faustralia-taiwan-china%2F
Australia government’s handling of Taiwan issue
Australia’s nuanced response to Taiwan tensions shows ‘adults are back in charge’
https://thenewdaily-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/08/05/australia-taiwan-china/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16597936407525&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthenewdaily.com.au%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Faustralian-politics%2F2022%2F08%2F05%2Faustralia-taiwan-china%2F
John Tingle, father of Laura Tingle has passed away.
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/101307794?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16597949132804&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2022-08-06%2Ffounder-nsw-shooters-party-john-tingle-dad-laura-tingle-dies%2F101307794
Apparently St.Bernard of Sanders is getting a hard time from the Tankies for his NATO vote on Sweden and Finland …..
Glenn Greenwald
@ggreenwald
Bernie doesn’t even pretend any more to have anything resembling a left-wing foreign policy or any minimal divergence from the neocon-driven Dem Party’s foreign policy dogma. Opposing NATO expansion was long a mainstream liberal view. Now only Hawley & Paul will get near it
______________________________________________________
I followed a few links through to an obscure hard left podcast and learnt that the new Truth is that Bernie started his “sellout of the global working class” way back in the 1990’s 🙂
Archie Battersbee has passed away in hospital 🙁
RIP
https://news.sky.com/story/archie-battersbee-12-dies-after-life-support-is-turned-off-12633585
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/08/05/preference-flows-and-by-elections-open-thread/comment-page-14/#comment-3962391
I guess the previous ‘PM’ forgot being known is one thing, liked another, trusted a third, and so there was no repeat ‘purchase’ at the 2022 Federal Election …
There are a few “blokes”, and I use that term loosely (I’d get booted if I wrote what I really think of them) that need to pull their heads in before they get them torn off.
The language directed at C@t last night was disgraceful in the extreme and wranslide, C@t might not say it but I will. What you said IS no different to domestic violence or any other form of abuse. You and a couple of others are nothing but pure slime.
Don’t let the bastards get you down C@t
What did he say, exactly?
Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17
17h
There it is: for the first time since November, Democrats take the lead on the @FiveThirtyEight polling average for the generic ballot
Kyle Griffin
@kylegriffin1
NBC News: The Senate Parliamentarian has OK’d the clean energy provisions in the Democratic reconciliation bill
According to Schumer, the Senate Parliamentarian has OK’d the Medicare portions of Democrats’ prescription drug reform plan
Ray (UK) @ #663 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 1:06 am
As an American podcaster commented the other day, Glenn Greenwald is the ‘Left Wing’ Go To Guy for the MAGA crowd who always has a ready criticism of Progressive politicians, ‘by someone from the Left’, that they can use against the Left.
His disdain for ‘the Left’ went via Edward Snowden and Putin.
Ray (UK) says:
Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 3:29 am
Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17
17h
“There it is: for the first time since November, Democrats take the lead on the @FiveThirtyEight polling average for the generic ballot”
Seems as though Americans might finally be understanding the reality of the threat to their democracy and freedoms. Should at least make for an interesting mid-terms is they can just be motivated to get out and vote.
William Bowe @ #667 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 1:37 am
The ‘branchie stuff’. Which lampooned and impugned the contribution I have made to the ALP. And the Warc@t epithet. Which isn’t true either. War is the last thing I want. That’s why I’m so anti China and their military build-up.
Also, it was the pile-on that really got to me. Especially what Andrew Gold said a few mornings ago.
Anyway I hope it’s all been sorted out now. 🙂
C@T
Just read back through yesterday evening’s offerings, looks like things got a little overly willing. Hang in there and keep challenging, I thoroughly enjoy most of your commentary.
Cronus,
Kansas showed that there is hope to be had.
Especially considering that petrol prices are going down, unemployment is way down, and Indiana just introduced one of those draconian Anti Abortion Bills with no exceptions. Still! After Kansas!
C@tmomma @ #655 Saturday, August 6th, 2022 – 10:39 pm
I thought nath was a relatively recent arrival to PB? That comment suggests s/he was around during the Gillard years. Which makes me wonder what screen name they were using back then?
Cronus @ #673 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 6:21 am
Thanks, Cronus. I just answered people’s misconceptions honestly and at length until I think everything was ultimately sorted out. 🙂
The graveyard/nightshifts are getting worse IMO. It used to be the really nasty stuff happened after or just before midnight. Now it starts in the late afternoon and early evening.
Must say I remain a Cat fan. Keep on keeping on Cat!
Thank you, Bert and pritu too. Knights in Shining Armour. 🙂
I can only imagine what policy delights Hastie will share. I’m having breakfast with friends this morning so will miss Insiders.
#sosad
‘fess,
nath brought up the Single Mother thing during Bill Shorten’s time as Opposition Leader as a retrospective swipe at the ALP.
Further to the stadium collapse at Leichardt Oval. Luckily nobody was hurt but Perrottet is likely to face some uncomfortable questions about the decision to reverse the funding agreement.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/railing-collapse-at-leichhardt-oval-mars-schoolboy-rugby-clash-20220806-p5b7u5.html
How will Andrew Hastie answer for his time in the last government as Assistant Defence Minister? Will he be asked?
Apparently, according to his wiki, he is staunchly against taking action to deal with Climate Change, for national security reasons. That would be interesting to ask him about.
Hastie has publicly opposed the Paris Agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the National Energy Guarantee. He made it clear in August 2018 that he did not support the NEG as it existed at the time. He cited issues including unclear assurances of energy affordability and energy related risks to national security as his reasons for opposing the policies. [62]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Hastie
???
C@tmomma @ #680 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 6:33 am
The Shorten obsession.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/dominic-perrottet-proposed-new-trade-role-to-minister-20220806-p5b7t0.html
Perrottet is just going from scandal to scandal at the moment. The wheels are clearly falling off the wagon. If you can’t govern yourselves, you can’t govern the state.
Hang in there C@T
Nil desperandum carburundum illegitami
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Sorry folks, this is the best I can do today.
Jon Faine reckons it really can get worse for the Victorian Liberal party.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/can-it-get-any-worse-for-the-victorian-liberals-yes-it-can-20220805-p5b7jy.html
Victoria’s latest quarterly health performance data released shows hospitals are grappling with COVID, the flu and the impact of delayed care, write Aisha Dow and Rachel Eddy.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-patients-languish-longer-in-emergency-departments-and-ambulance-queues-20220806-p5b7rp.html
Gaping loopholes, earnest advisers and an international reputation for stability have made Australia a place of choice for illicit funds. Despite a crackdown on the foreign ownership of established houses, there are still many ways for crooks to score a piece of the action, no matter which government is in power, writes Nathan Lynch in an extract from his book The Lucky Laundry – how the Aussie economy got hooked on the world’s dirtiest cash.
https://michaelwest.com.au/money-laundering-fuels-house-prices-aml-ctf/
Survivors of sex offences in Victoria will no longer be told ‘if they didn’t scream, they consented’, explains Kathleen Maltzham.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/survivors-of-sex-offences-will-no-longer-be-told-if-they-didn-t-scream-they-consented-20220805-p5b7jx.html
Here’s Amanda Meade’s weekly media roundup.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/aug/05/sydney-morning-herald-slips-up-on-shape-of-water-nonsense
Cartoon Corner
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Matt Davidson
Reg Lynch
Fiona Katauskas
Mark Knight
From the US
Confessions @ #685 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 6:49 am
Channel 7 has been publicising an ‘Expenses Scandal’ to be revealed during the News on Monday night. It involves a ‘Top Public Servant’, apparently. The hits keep on coming for the Perrottet government.
Thanks, dave. 🙂
#internethug
BK
Local footy team update?
C@t:
As I said the other day, these sorts of appointments happen all the time, esp to get rid of troublesome MPs like David Elliot is. You just have to own it outright that you’re appointing a mate rather than try to cover it up, as what happened with Barilaro.
It’s often the cover up that gets you, not the deed.
wranslide
Single mothers were already being denied the extra years on benefits for years before Gillard came along.
It was not her policy.
What she did was remove the grandfathering. This allowed single parents who were already on the benefit to stay on it until their youngest was 16 instead of 8. As it had been some years since this provision was put in place, most of those effected were almost off it anyway.
I’m not defending, I’m clarifying, but I’ve always found it weird that people who got so emotional about is didn’t seem to give a toss about the single parents who had already been moved off the payments.
Neither did they seem to care much about couples on the dole, both of whom were being forced to seek work (if the argument is that it’s good to have a parent at home, then let’s be consistent).
By demanding that Gillard’s policy be reversed, you’re arguing for a nonsense, because the people it applied to basically don’t exist any more.
If you’re asking that Howard’s be, that’s a different story.
BK
Local footy team update?
______________
Shellbell
They ventured to play the Cabbagecutters at Kersbrook and suffered a 37.22 to 0.0 mauling.
The true impact of economic sanctions on Russia:
https://youtu.be/vzvR958CYTw
1. If you have to go back and explain that a comment you made back in the past was misinterpreted, the question that raises is why you didn’t do that at the time.
2. It’s easy to stick to the facts we know about each other, rather than resorting to assumptions.
3. And (while we’re here) let’s try not to lump a whole group of posters into one basket. It’s some kind of -ism, surely – the basis of prejudice is to assume, after all, that a group of people are all the same.
And yes, I’m probably guilty of all of those, because of being human.
The factional dysfunction in the NSW Liberal Party goes beyond DeScomification. This will not end without a lengthy spell in Opposition….
Barilaro, who was forced to withdraw from the $500,000-a-year trade commissioner role amid a public backlash, will appear before a parliamentary inquiry tomorrow and Liberals believe the former deputy premier and Nationals leader has the potential to badly damage the premier.
MPs told The Sun-Herald of deep unease within the backbench and ministry over the premier’s handling of the saga. A tussle over whether Elliott or Treasurer Matt Kean will replace Ayres as deputy party leader has also stoked tensions.
……
Elliott and Perrottet have had an at-times strained relationship, while Elliott and Kean have made no secret of their mutual loathing.
Sources with knowledge of the discussion say Perrottet also spoke to Elliott about the role of agent-general in London and described Stephen Cartwright, who holds the position, as “a problem”.
Ayres, who resigned as trade minister on Tuesday after a draft excerpt of an independent probe into the Barilaro appointment raised questions about whether he breached the ministerial code of conduct, also spoke to Elliott about his political plans.
Ayres went to Elliott’s office to discuss whether the minister intended to stay in parliament and also spoke about the agent-general, two with knowledge of the conversion have confirmed..
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/dominic-perrottet-proposed-new-trade-role-to-minister-20220806-p5b7t0.html
David Elliot would have made an excellent Agent General in London…. An excellent CV I’m sure the independent panel would appreciate.
And as a bonus, he could help sort the Pommies out…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/police-minister-denies-grabbing-arm-of-17-year-old-during-alleged-road-rage-incident-20191108-p538kr.html
https://www.criminaldefencelawyers.com.au/blog/minister-david-elliot-cleared-of-impersonating-police-officer-by-internal-review-without-following-proper-process/
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/he-s-an-animal-divisive-minister-david-elliott-faces-summer-of-scrutiny-20191121-p53cw6.html
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/transport-minister-david-elliott-accuses-treasurer-matt-kean-of-treachery-over-federal-election-move-on-katherine-deves/news-story/f786c69a1af013fd7a7515b8504e3d31
He may have to be satisfied with being NSW Deputy Premier, breathing over the embattled Dom’s shoulder.
Much thanks BK.
Jon faine is spot on about Matthew Guy and the liberals.
Meanwhile Kos Samaras of Redbridge
—-
At this stage. The Greens May surge should be expected to be replicated in November.
Super charged by a generation who discovered during the pandemic that even well meaning governments cannot protect all of society from existential threats. 1/
https://t.co/xDNjO5XEsw
Interesting piece
—
https://fortune.com/2022/08/05/when-will-pandemic-end-can-animals-catch-covid-future-omicron-zoonotic-disease-monkeypox/amp/
It was very obvious when the supreme court overturned roe va wade, that the dems would garner support for the mid terms.
As has been posited by many commentators, the republicans currently resemble the dog that caught the car.