Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.
Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.
State and territory by-election:
• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.
• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.
• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.
‘Kosmos Samaras, expects to see a surge in the Greens vote across the state, driven largely by people in their 20s living in Melbourne’s inner-city.’
Er, isn’t this sentence self contradictory?
‘“Some of these people have never voted for a major party before. ‘
So not voting for a major party now is going to change things exactly how?
‘Samaras says events at parliament this week will fuel the perception the major parties are “just as bad as each other”.’
You have to know that they’ve happened. I’m only tangently aware and I’m more interested in politics than most.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/06/the-integrity-push-thats-driving-a-confidence-boost-for-the-victorian-greens?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
The article otherwise seems to be the usual pre election claim by the Greens that they’re going to take a swag of seats (although they’re being a bit more modest about it than usual) as well as the ‘we were robbed by the system’ whinge (you’d think they’d have worked out how to use it by now…)
The man responsible for eradicating small pox said that it would be impossible to eradicate a disease if it also infected other animals, as they would create an ongoing reserve for it.
It’s why we still have bubonic plague.
(He basically says, based on several criteria, that smallpox was the only one that could have been eradicated, and even then it was an almost impossible task…)
Morning all. Thanks for trying on the roundup BK. I can’t help thinking that the lack of political commentary is because Labor had a great week in Federal parliament and the usual suspects simply don’t want to dwell on it.
My sympathies on the local footy team. I know you put a lot of time into them and such things bind communities together.
sprocket_ @ #697 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 8:12 am
Plus
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/10/nsw-police-minister-david-elliott-under-fire-over-photo-firing-prohibited-weapons
Elliot as Deputy Premier is some sick joke.
Getting my haircut at 9. Too sad.
Yes Socrates. There is a distinct absence of federal rorts, cockups, inaction, bad behaviour from government for the usual hacks to write about.
They have started the process of passing the Inflation Reduction Act in the US Senate
The vote is currently 50-47 to start the tortuous ‘reconciliation’ process .. 3 Repubs are waiting till the last minute to tie the vote, and force Kamala Harris to cast her tie-breaker vote, just to drag the thing out
Hours of debate and amendments lie ahead, the so-called vote-o-rama
‘Samaras says events at parliament this week will fuel the perception the major parties are “just as bad as each other”.’
Especially if Kos Samaras has anything to say about it.
Compare the pair:
Labor: Investigated by IBAC and the Victorian Ombudsmen. Found nothing of a kind to be referred to the Police. Situation dealt with by the Premier.
Liberals: Back door donations. Liberal leader slipping and sliding and trying to deflect from taking full accountability for what seems a very dodgy situation. Trouble only just begun for him.
Plus, does Kos Samaras have to be reminded of the Victorian Greens’ saga of bullying and misogyny?
ItzaDream @ #704 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 8:48 am
… Resembling the dying days of the Roman Empire.
Ray (UK) @ #707 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 8:50 am
And the Democrats thank them for their recalcitrance. 🙂
Just for the record
https://youtu.be/BJEEPTMC2lY
C@tmomma @ #709 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 8:54 am
Morning C@t. New day.
Confessions and Cat
Thanks for the link on Andrew Hastie on Insiders and his bizarre view that combating climate change will make national security worse?? I suppose letting sea level rise create several million climate refugees looking for new homes in our region will make national security better? I won’t be watching either.
To me Hastie illustrates the Hogan’s Heroes style approach to defence and national security under the LNP both in government and since. Silly people saying silly things about a serious subject.
Hastie was a low level infantry officer before parliament. That is fine, but means he would have had nothing to do with defence policy or strategy. Now, without regular Ministerial briefings from real experts, he is exposed as knowing nothing. Dutton was worse – a beat cop for a few years before politics. A real tough guy.
Looking back, the string of defence ministers under the LNP highlights that none knew much about Defence, or what to do about our region. They were all more interested in their obsession with ties to England than SE Asia.
Their ideological hatred of local manufacturing ensured that naval shipbuilding was treated as nothing more than pork to win votes in marginal seats. Projects were shifted from NSW to Vic to SA to WA as polling demanded. There was no strategy or consistency. Poor outcomes then allowed a switch to foreign construction to be justified.
I’m not sure upbeat music is an appropriate soundtrack for a story about missiles being fired…
BK says:
Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 7:52 am
BK
Local footy team update?
______________
Shellbell
“They ventured to play the Cabbagecutters at Kersbrook and suffered a 37.22 to 0.0 mauling.”
Thanks BK
Perhaps there’s a correlation between the mauling and the dawn patrol (chuckles). The Dawn Patrol at least is in good hands as opposed to the footy team (sad).
The question is, for how long should a “single parent”, who is the mother, remain on the public purse?
And then to clarify a “single parent”
What I do know is that my children spent every second weekend and half of school holidays with their birth mother by Court Order
And that Child Support continued until the youngest left education. (altho this was minimal because of the employment status of the other party)
I also know that means testing meant I received no support from government over and above what a 2 parent family received (so Child Endowment or whatever it was called)
The question I had was, given the children were at school and of increasing age, for how long can a “single parent”sit behind that status and not embrace employment to accrue an income (along with Child Support, which continues)
The other party in my matter once went th Child Support seeking relief from the assessment of her, the Notice of Decision in my favour and specifically drawing attention to the care arrangements of the children and asking why the applicant was not more engaged in employment including on a full time basis
The other question is, if a single parent sits behind government remittances and Child Support until a child leaves school, have they compromised their ability to enter the work force, so longer term damage is done?
My “employment income” post being the parent with the principal care of the children was the use of my work place experience (and contacts) to provide business overview and to, in some instances, negotiate facilities at bank
So I had a choice as to what I did, who for and the times I engaged in providing as I did to those businesses (so when the children were at school)
I continued in that field for some 10 years until declining all requests by my choice, including considering my financial needs (now a fully self funded retiree which has been my status for the last 10 or more years)
And, in regards family support, my parents were Aged Pensioners
Everyone has a story to tell
But my take on the headlines from the Gillard government decision is that sometimes you need to be cruel to be kind
So once your children are at school you should embrace exploring employment as a source of income because at some point they are no longer at school and what happens then?
Further, not all “single parents” are female
UK Cartoons:
2 hours after voting started it’s 50-50 in the Senate
Kamala is on the way 🙂
It has been argued that a boost to the elimination of smallpox was one of the few benefits of Mrs Gandhi declaring a state of emergency in 1975. Foci of the disease due to vaccine resistance still existed in India but with the state of emergency, informed consent was no longer an issue.
Polio is also a stable virus with no animal reserve. It has had an effect, life-long vaccine for 70 years but despite an enormous effort, elimination has still not been achieved. George W Bush shares some of the blame for this
Cronus
I have a horrible suspicion that we have seen organised competitive sport played on our oval for the last time – at least while I’m alive.
Sad.
“Thanks for the link on Andrew Hastie on Insiders and his bizarre view that combating climate change will make national security worse?? ”
Hastie has a VERY narrow view of what “National Security means”.
Penny Wong in FA, Rebuilding South Pacific relations, Climate Bills through the HoR, ABC funded to get Australia’s pov out there, calm handling of Foot & Mouth in Indonesia, rapprochement with those naughty French people…….all real and relevant and contributing to better “National Security” for Australia at the moment as well as laying the groundwork better in the future.
Coalition just has no fracking idea. National Security for Australia, in our region needs a credible military. But………there are a vast number of other factors that matter, not just bombs and boats.
NSW Liberals preparing to spend 6 months in a leaky boat. Will changing captain help? 🙂
Andrews made a mistake buy bringing somyurek back to cabenit after 2018 however has shown great leadership since 60 minutes managed a deal with marles to isolate shrortens group that ment helping albanese winn federaly with andrews deal with marles and shoppies and cleared out the somyurek forcis while still keeping shortins allies natuli huchins in cabenit while the liberals covered up guys chief off staff
Thank you, BK
Elliott, Barilaro: the Rum Corps is rolling out the barrel.
Regarding Matthew Guy Faine notes:
“ The opposition leader has argued there is no problem because the proposed side-hustle never went ahead. Guy Fawkes would be pleased – he only plotted to blow up Britain’s parliament.”
Hilarious if it wasn’t such a prime example of a lack of principles wrapped in gross incompetence.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/can-it-get-any-worse-for-the-victorian-liberals-yes-it-can-20220805-p5b7jy.html
But 3aw and herald sun triying to sbinn that getting rid of somyureks key lutenant marline kairouz will cost labor the inner suberbs seat desbite andrews managed to convince her former allie gregoravitch rayol union to defect o get the seat preveously alind with somyurek also sbinning that getting rid of seazer melhim found guilty over awu scandleand others would distroy the government media quickly lost intereist in somyureks allie after ombudsman dismised read shirts stunt
Was funty somyureks faction melhim complaining abbout being roled given somyurek wanted to roll alll of andrews faction at least his kept a couple tim richardson so so it does not look like a total clear out
Why would anyone ask Andrew Hastie anything?
Andrews keeping Somyurek in cabinet was a case of ‘keeping your enemies closer’ while preparing the sting that brought down the dodgy Somyurek and his allies.
It is only those who cannot stomach a socialist as Premier, who are the ones smearing Daniel Andrews.
eliott reminds me of a certain sacked victorian labor minister now triying to help guy with out much success through herald sun appears to be a bomb thrower who when does not get his way tries to blow the government up ben fordum triying to get elliott to get in to a fight with matt kean thankfuly kean is smart enough not to attack back using others such as constence after impersonating a police officer and shutting down the trains i think perretttet would be glad if he retired his part of the morrrison faction
Hastie has shown he’s simply yet another religiously-tuned dim wit. The country is very badly served by the Lying Reactionaries.
BK
“ BK says:
Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 9:09 am
Cronus
I have a horrible suspicion that we have seen organised competitive sport played on our oval for the last time – at least while I’m alive. Sad.”
And part of a broader malaise from my humble observations BK regarding local sports, community contributions and even the willingness of teens in particular to seek to undertake paid work (mowing/gardening etc) to earn money to prepare for saving or making early small purchases. Apparently the bank of mom and dad mitigates all these old community norms now. I love change but not all change is good nor prepares our young folk for resilient and innovative lives.
Richard marles on the other hand desbite having a back grojund in unions seems be across his portfoleo and know a lot abbout defence which his predesesers did not desbite liberals brand advantige its labor that is best on national securityhastie was talked up heavilyas a future leader due to his leaks abbout inteligents committy to jernalists such as mackenzey that is whiy mckenzey was upset that labors anthony byrne retired so no more leaks from labor on defence
Still waiting to see whether David Speers is going to ask Andrew Hastie about the climate change bill.
Cronus
It’s a hard gig. I put the word out for young new committee members for the running and maintenance of our community-owned facility. I defined young as being less than 65.
Crickets.
Richard marles on the other hand desbite having a back grojund in unions seems be across his portfoleo and know a lot abbout defence which his predesesers did not desbite liberals brand advantige its labor that is best on national securityhastie was talked up heavilyas a future leader due to his leaks abbout inteligents committy to jernalists such as mackenzey that is whiy mckenzey was upset that labors anthony byrne retired so no more leaks from labor on defenc
“Why would anyone ask Andrew Hastie anything?”
Boredom?? I am very glad that we are having a posture review, and gladder that the Libs aren’t the ones doing it.
Whatever comes out of it the Libs will screech that the sky is falling and the Chinese and/or Brown People on Boats are coming to have unnatural relations with your dog and murder the womenfolk.
War or close to it in 3 places at least now, Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan…..not good. Many ways things can go awful at short notice. But, at least we have adults in charge in Australia as the moment.
”
BKsays:
Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 8:49 am
Yes Socrates. There is a distinct absence of federal rorts, cockups, inaction, bad behaviour from government for the usual hacks to write about.
”
The new government is only 2 1/2 months old and most senior ministers are experienced as Ministers earlier.
Not a single question to a member of the Coalition about their total irrelevance in the passing (through the house at least) of the first movement on climate change legislation in almost a decade.
Great job Speersy!
in duttons first pres conference as opposition leader showed his incompetents basickly said he was right to apose the apoligie to stollin generation but regreted boicotting it as it was a bad look but then acused indeginis people of high demestick violents seems to constantly sexxualize woman constant referentsis to sexual asult and said labor had been in opposition foor years and should have known the liberals left them in a biger mes then puplickly addmitted and should kbnow what to do
zoomster says:
I’m not defending, I’m clarifying, but I’ve always found it weird that people who got so emotional about is didn’t seem to give a toss about the single parents who had already been moved off the payments.
___________
You used to defend it, and by extension, you defended the Howard cuts too.
The reason why people get emotional about it, in relation to Gillard, is that you expect that sort of thing from Howard. To have the Labor party push an extra 85,000 single mothers into poverty was more than a shock. To people like me who were actually expecting Labor to reverse Howard’s policy it was more than disappointing.
To add further insult to injury Gillard now parades around the world, racking up honorary doctorates and awards for…… god knows what. She is now taking to the stage, regurgitating her misogyny speech about how hard done by she was. These stage shows will be a fascinating study in political narcissism.
#weatheronPB
I listen under the stillness,
of the dominant empty pale blue sky.
Light warmth caresses my face.
also blamed labor foor the energy price rise and also fooor all manufacturing going off shore no one in pres pack bothered to ask him off his concern foor woman in covering up porter and renyolds but susan ley was even worse said she has to go on a nation wide search to find out whiy woman abandond them
The IPCC deliberately downplays these scenarios, but some climate scientists think it’s time they started talking about the possibility of truly catastrophic climate outcomes.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01082022/scientists-study-catastrophic-climate-outcomes/
It is insane to be considering opening up new coal mines and gas fields. Just madness.
Clanell off all the jernalists and probin gave him the toughist grilling clanell suprises me is on sky news and worked foor teligraph and new corp gfoor years but was the only main stream jernalist to go after gladys on integrity when fordum was saying she did nothing rong and was also one off morrisons toughist criticks yet works on sky news the mouth pease off the liberals saidduttons anti china retorick damaged ournational security
Hastie can ‘bang the table’ as hard as he wants, but neither AUKUS partner can deliver us a SSN capability (ie. not just one sub, but at least 3 in service) before 2040 UNLESS they are prepared to compromise their own order book.
When one looks at the number of clapped out Los Angeles class subs that are due to retire over that period (they were built at a rate of 3 per year at peak production) with the fact that the Americans are only building 2 Virginia class subs per year (and the ability to increase that back up to 3 boats per year is compromised by the fact that they are now just starting to build Columbia Class SSBNs to replace their aging Ohio class boats) then for the American’s to compromise their order book in favour of us … compromises their actual capability. That is simply not going to happen. Nor is it even desirable in the context of ‘countering China’.
Britain is in a worse position. They are fully committed to their Dreadnaught SSBN program – having laid down two hulls already with another two to be laid down over the next few years. They simply have no capability to build us a single SSN submarine – even if they could (which is doubtful given that the Astute class reactor isnt being built anymore, and they would have to do design work to accomodate a new one – not to mention design work to accomodate US combat and weapons systems) – and even if they wanted to (which is also extremely doubtful in a post Johnson era).
The Dutton/Hastie line – begging/demanding/stamping of feet until AUKUS coughs up some subs THIS decade is beyond mere wishcasting.
Also – can I have a shoutout to the fecklessness of the Insiders panel – Waleed mentioned the French offer to build 4 SSKs (presumably Attack class boats) in France this decade. Much chortling, but everybody missed the play, didnt they?
If France has the capacity to lay down 4 Attack class subs in Cherbourg this decade, they have the capacity to lay down 4 Suffren class SSN subs for us this decade as well (and being build at a pace of 8 years on the production line, with 1-2 years for post launch fit out and sea trials, this means we could have 2-3 SSN subs in service by 2035/36, with the final two in service by 2040).
That’s before one considers that we could also start building French SSNs concurrently in Adelaide. Probably from 2025-27 – at a drum beat of one hull being laid down every two years, and even allowing for a slower initial build pace, one would expect that build could produce 3-4 boats into service by 2040-42 as well. This is a decade ahead of AUKUS, and if the Collins class isnt phased out until 2038-44, then there would be no capability gap (measured on current capabilities) either.
BK says:
Sunday, August 7, 2022 at 9:32 am
Cronus
“It’s a hard gig. I put the word out for young new committee members for the running and maintenance of our community-owned facility. I defined young as being less than 65.
Crickets.”
Yep, at our local Showgrounds a lady in her mid 80s has been cleaning the seating and helping out for 60 years. She can no longer drive and just needs a lift weekly to continue this service, do you think she can get a ride, no?
I need mowing done and mulch moved (my last teen worker finally grew into an adult with a fulltime job). I’m surrounded by about 8 teen male neighbours. I can’t get a single one to take my cash (tax free and good rates) to undertake this work. Seems their parents give them sufficient pocket money gratis and they don’t need to pay for petrol or board so no need to earn. What chance they’ll ever undertake community service gratis?
Player One
“It is insane to be considering opening up new coal mines and gas fields. Just madness.”
Could you tell us just what coal mines and gas fields are to be opened and who are supporting these proposals ?
Goll @ #748 Sunday, August 7th, 2022 – 9:55 am
Beetaloo. Scarborough. Narrabri. North West Shelf.
All supported by Labor (State or Federal).
“Beetaloo. Scarborough. Narrabri. North West Shelf.”
Can’t see any coal mines on that list.
As well, exactly when are these mentioned gas projects meant to actually be up and running at full capacity?
Not exploration and test drilling, actually in full operation.
I seriously doubt any will go to the production stage.