Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)

A look at preference flow data from the 2019 and 2022 elections, and the latest on looming by-elections in the Northern Territory, Tasmania and (sort of) Western Australia.

Something I really should have noted in last week’s post is that the Australian Electoral Commission has now published two-candidate preferred preference flow data from the election, showing how minor party and independent preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The table below shows how Labor’s share increased for the four biggest minor parties and independents collectively (and also its fraction decrease for “others”) from the last election to this and, in the final column, how much difference each made to Labor’s total share of two-party preferred, which was 52.13%.

Note that the third column compares how many preference Labor received with how many they would have if preference flows had been last time, which is not the same thing as how many preferences they received. Labor in fact got nearly 2% more two-party vote share in the form of Greens preferences at this election because the Greens primary vote was nearly 2% higher this time.

State and territory by-election:

• Six candidates for the August 20 by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Fannie Bay, in ballot paper order: Brent Potter, described in a report as a “government adviser, army veteran and father of four”, for Labor; independent George Mamouzellos; independent Raj Samson Rajwin, who was a Senate candidate for the United Australia Party; Jonathan Parry of the Greens; independent Leah Potter; and Ben Hosking, “small business owner and former police officer”, for the Country Liberals.

• Following the resignation of Labor member Jo Siejka, a by-election will be held for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on September 10. Siejka defeated a Liberal candidate by 8.65% to win the eastern Hobart seat at the periodic election in 2019. There will also be a recount of 2021 election ballots in Franklin to determine which of the three unelected Liberals will replace Jacquie Petrusma following her resignation announcement a fortnight ago. As Kevin Bonham explains, the order of probability runs Bec Enders, Dean Young and James Walker.

• Still no sign of a date for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,594 comments on “Preference flows and by-elections (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 32
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  1. Mavis
    I have no problem with testing the validity of the claim.
    I do have a serious problem with an inadequately resourced system that, regardless of the validity of the claim, delivers additional stress and anxiety.

  2. it makes litle sence the west is triying desperatly to prove us impearilizm let china distroy honcongs democrasy buy taking over and abolishing the one country 2 systems policy effectively abandond ucraine in order for rusian invation apart frojm weaponms lacking the courige to send in troops but will stop china from taking over tiwon whicus has not had diplomatec relaeetions with since nickson it is crazysell out ucraine toand force them to negociate and sell out to rusia while policy making an un nesesery viset to tiwon

  5. The us oficial all ready said they will abandon ucraine and apease rusia buy forcing ucraine to give up there teritory to rusia same with afganistan they were all ways willing to let taliban come back but to save face wanted it to be dun in a election did nothing to defend hongcongsdefend hongong but pilosey makes a big deal abbout a country with out any diplomatick presents the obsetion with tiwon makes no sence but not sending troops to ucrane

  6. An

    I am not so sure about your points. Consider:

    The consistency is that the West is arming both Ukraine and Taiwan.

    Two World Wars seem to have been enough to deprive europeans of the motivation to fight a Third World War.

    The US is war weary and isolationist following three decades and a trillion dollars worth of defeats.

  7. S
    Embattled, embattled on several fronts, embattled on the flanks, embattled on the Home Front, embattled by saboteurs, embattled by fifth columnists, circling the wagons, pell mell retreat..

  8. this mightnot be popular but rusias invation off rusia is just like piloseys visetto tiwon would be good if countries stop the impearial mind set that says american must not be chalinged as a supper power that is what this tiwon thing is abboutthe west over looked chinas terible human rights record until they over took americas mythical supper power status this is a country who has lost evry war since ww2 but claims to be a supper power and will stop any country from competing with them after vietnam and afghanistan have no idea whiy the so called stratagists desbite two mas defeats still peddle the myth that our defence luys in america

  9. if the us sendss combat troops to tiwon desbite having no diplomatic presents but not doingt the same foor ucrane desbite warnings since 2014 that an invation was iminent then it shows america has double standards i do not think us even has an embasy in tiwonthe west should have pulled out of afghanistan and let the taliban come back as the publick did not want democrasy but help countries like ucrane and honcong that have been calling foor years for help to defend them

  10. bw have to disagree whiy should we arm tiwon yet we apeeesed china by allowing the ccp to trash honcongs democrasy buy abolishing 2 systems with the west leetting it happin yetadopting a differnt policy on tiwon which has litle trade unlike hongcong

  11. If, as some are saying, Pelosi’s motive for the Taiwan visit was to enhance her own election standing, then she is pure evil.

  14. any imformation on new deputy leader liberal contest between elliott and kean as a labor voter would hope elliott gets it as he is as good a gift to us as barilarow with him impersonationg a police officer and his constant distabalization triying to sabitage the government to help minns winn as the morrison club hats kean but hopefuly logic will prevail 2gb were the chear leader believig morrison would win buy attacking kean and trans kids butif liberals liston to 2gb and morrison operrettet wil go the same way as mathew guy as an un electible government

  15. matt kean is quit a clever mp desbite backing in barilarows distraction offf the colard and being part off a government moore cerupt then kenearleys he has convinced the main stream media that he is a champion off net 0 climate change and is a champion of moderit liberals which should fool theteel voters however 2gb thinks perrettet should follow morrisons loosing stratigy of culture wars and picking on minorities and egnoring your base in faver off 2gb and sky news if perrettet wants to lose elliott wil be deputy over the obvious choice kean

  18. suprised its takin the nsw liberals this long to realise you dont win elections buy pandering to the reactionaries on 2gb and sky news you have to winn through the centre but the three liberal leaders that did not liston to 2gb and listond to the public at times bairdturnbull and perretett 2gb tried and is triying to distroy them and back labor because they dont do what hadley wants berijeckliens bigest mistake was in stead off investing in health listond to the rugbey league lobey to build stadiums that would be under used in stead off listining to the publick verlandies and 2gb are in ther own buble thinking evry one is a hard lin reactionary not the minority perrettet how saw 2gbs championing of climate denile and catrhine deves anti trans rubish worked out foor morrison

  19. The only time the victorian liberals worked out you do not winn elections buy pandering to niel mitchel they actualy won in 2010 under napthinemaybi if guy learnt and stopt triying to get rid off andrews the liberals might be competative

  21. An
    Sort of agree re: Hong Kong and Taiwan and consistency. The difference is that there are reasonable prospects that Taiwan will defend itself.

  22. A long time ago now I was accused by a university of cheating. I had written a short paper as part of an honours level physics course I was taking. I was enrolled at one university but taking part of my studies at another, with one other person doing the same. We would travel together to the ‘other’ campus, sit the lectures together, and travel back. Since we were only at the ‘other’ campus for the one lecture on any day and didn’t know anyone at that ‘other’ campus, we would work out anything that puzzled us by ourselves. That aspect of the course was actually quite enjoyable, working stuff out together.

    But when it came to writing the paper I can only guess that what we wrote was too similar. We were both judged to have cheated, because the examiner couldn’t tell which one of us cheated off the other. The feeling never leaves.

  25. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, August 5, 2022 at 4:31 pm

    Biloela family granted permanent residency.

    I’d love to see Dutton’s reaction.

  27. I love satire. Here we have the Chaser’s news quiz:

    The Coalition accused a Greens MP of acting inappropriately in Parliament this week after:

    1. He brought sex workers into the prayer room
    2. He shared a video pleasuring himself on a staffers desk
    3. He impregnated his staff member while married
    4. He didn’t wear a tie

  30. My go to on FMD gets a big mention for his work with University of Sydney in leading the countries approach to FMD. Emeritus Professor Peter Windsor is an expert in Asian ruminant farming systems and has been one of those watching FMD for years.
    We were at USyd together in the early 70s when he was a brilliant young vet student from Wagga and I was a mediocre Agriculture student. We both attended St Andrew’s College (until we both got sick of the dickheads that frequented the place) and lived in the Palm Beach end of Newtown in relative squalor before both finishing our studies at the Cobbity Campus of USyd.
    https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/our-universities/fmd-outbreak/

  33. Shadow home affairs Minister Karen Andrews has reacted to the decision to let the Nadesalingam family stay permanently in the country, saying it has undermined Australia’s strict border policy.
    ______
    Well there you go. Now for a comment from Dutton about the terrorists in Queensland.

  35. Bill Shorten has been revealed as a massive Neighbours fan. Obviously he hasn’t been that busy over the past 30 years.

  37. Rex Douglas @ #161 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 4:00 pm

    If, as some are saying, Pelosi’s motive for the Taiwan visit was to enhance her own election standing, then she is pure evil.

    I think Pelosi was playing a sophisticated game of Diplomacy. You know, the board game, popular among VicAus uni students in the 70s. Distracting China’s ability to arm Russia, for an immediate threat on its home front.

    Well played Pelosi.

  38. Rex Douglas @ #161 Friday, August 5th, 2022 – 4:00 pm

    If, as some are saying, Pelosi’s motive for the Taiwan visit was to enhance her own election standing, then she is pure evil.
    ______________
    You can’t judge politicians by the standards of normal morality.

  40. A question to any bludgers who may have acquired an EV recently. Xanthippe and I have a Nisan Leaf on order which will finally arrive in October. I was wondering about home chargers?

    Nissan provides a Type 2 to Type 2 Charger cord as standard and there is a wall box installation via Jet Charge.

    My questions are:
    – has anyone used Jet Charge and would you recommend them?
    – Has anyone installed a fast charger in their home and if so, what was it, by whom and how much? Would you recommend it?
    – anyon recommend a good fast charger installer in Adelaide?

    We already have a 13 kW home solar PV system with 10 kW hr LG home battery and it would be great to get something compatible with that.

  43. Socrates at 5:43 pm
    One thing I’d research re ‘fast’ chargers is whether they have an effect on battery longevity. I have no idea if they do or not but ‘turbo charging’ a process often comes at a cost.

  45. “Shadow home affairs Minister Karen Andrews has reacted to the decision to let the Nadesalingam family stay permanently in the country, saying it has undermined Australia’s strict border policy.”

    Well, they have no plans for the future, at lease none that they want to telegraph until a post-election budget should they eventually get back in. They have no record to be proud of. And now from the Opposition benches they can’t help out mates. So negativity it is. They are desperately hoping for the boats to restart. They want blackouts and soaring power prices that they can blame on the 43% target. Hell, I think they might even be barracking for the F&M virus.

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