Past time for a new thread, though inevitably given the time of year there is not a lot to report. Polling fans might care to take note of Mark the Ballot’s latest update of a poll aggregate that tracks a three-point increase in the “others” vote over the past six months of last year, which came cleanly at the expense of the Coalition, and a neat display of pollster house effects that calibrates what close observers will have already noticed: that Resolve Strategic is (relatively speaking) high for “others” and low for Labor, Essential Research is high for both major parties, and Roy Morgan is high for the Greens.
Then there’s the New South Wales state by-elections, which deserves a thread of its own but won’t get one until the date is formally announced. The Speaker, Jonathan O’Dea, has strongly indicated it will be February 12. A milestone was reached last week when four of the departing MPs finally lodged their formal resignations. Not among them was Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons holding out until she is confirmed as the federal candidate for Hughes, if indeed that occurs. That leaves:
Strathfield (Labor 5.0%): Both parties now have candidates in place for the seat being vacated by Jodi McKay. Labor’s is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a former lawyer who worked for a time for the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and is now executive chairman of Vantage Asia Holdings. Yat-Sen Li was Labor’s candidate for Bennelong in 2013 third on the Senate ticket in 2019. The Liberal candidate is Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate after her daughter and three of her cousins were killed in a car crash in Oatlands in February last year.
Bega (Liberal 6.9%): The Liberal candidate to succeed Andrew Constance is Fiona Kotvojs, a beef farmer who has twice been narrowly unsuccessful as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro: in 2019, when she fell 0.8% short of unseating Mike Kelly, and at the by-election following Kelly’s retirement in July 2020, when Kristy McBain retained the seat for Labor by 0.4%. Labor’s candidate is Michael Holland, an obstetrician-gynaecologist at Moruya District Hospital and lecturer at the Australian National University medical school.
Monaro (Nationals 11.6%): The Nationals have had their candidate to succeed John Barilaro in place since October: Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer. Conversely, Labor initially planned to forfeit before a rebellion by local party branches prompted a change of heart.
Willoughby (Liberal 21.0%): The Liberals are yet to conduct a preselection that has attracted three candidates: Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney, who is reportedly backed by Gladys Berejiklian, Paul Fletcher and Andrew Bragg; former television journalist Kellie Sloane, who is backed by Mike Baird; and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, a factional conservative. Labor will not contest the seat, and in the absence of a strong independent emerging, of which I’ve seen no indication, the winner should have an easy time of it.
Re Confessions at 1.59 pm, Rex at 2.08 pm, Cat at 2.11 pm, Bludging at 4.57 pm, Rossmcg at 5.27 pm
Brent’s thoughts are unlikely to have been updated since 1 Dec, when they were published at:
https://insidestory.org.au/western-australia-to-the-rescue/
Brent explained his assumptions thus:
“by the time of the election next year, if the new Omicron strain allows it, Western Australia’s borders will again be reasonably porous. Covid restrictions will largely be scaled back and cross-jurisdictional bickering mostly a thing of the past.”
His conclusion then was that in WA “there should be a decent swing to the opposition, but not enough to even hit the 50–50 vote mark.”
Brent is not a stellar pundit, as Cat notes, but in the past he has been capable of revising his thoughts when events turn out otherwise than he expected, albeit belatedly. However, don’t expect a revision on this matter until after 5 February, whatever happens to the border then.
Brent’s earlier musings are at: https://insidestory.org.au/up-close-and-personal/
Regarding Tasmania he said “really, who can say what will happen down there?”. Some Tasmanians, such as Jacqui Lambie, for a start.
Brent presumes the swing to Labor will be less than 5.5% across WA. See if he says the same in April.
C@t ” Do you know if his case was confirmed by a PCR or a RAT?”
Re Nick Kyrgios – the SMH story doesn’t say:
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/covid-positive-kyrgios-in-doubt-for-australian-open-20220110-p59n71.html
Thanks, Steve777. 🙂
Scotty was pretty strong about his covid border policies.
I expect him to capitulate on these words.
Steve,
Just been confirmed on ABC TV news.
I don’t get this part of the federal government’s 13 page submission to the court:
The unvaccinated player allegedly poses a “greater health risk of contracting Covid-19 and spreading Covid-19 to others”, which would “further burden” Australia’s health system, the documents read.
If Djokovic has recovered from his bout of Covid, how could he be at greater risk of contracting it again so soon after he just had it, and thus, spreading it to others?
Someone said earlier that the General says there are plenty of vaccines. Why then is Mark McGowan saying the promised delivery from the Feds didn’t arrive? Mr Brent doesn’t think there will be a substantial swing to the ALP in WA. Tell him he’s dreaming.
The ethics of the move to cancel Djokovic’s visa again are questionable but in order to save face for Morrison I think that’s what they will do. Also, if the other 2 tennis people were sent packing, then, for consistency’s sake, you’d think Djokovic will be sent packing as well.
Laura on now, with steam coming out of her ears.
Editorializing…
“We the people made the sacrifices, did everything and more that was asked of us, while our leaders printed pamphlets and made Power Point presentations.”
Fightin’ words.
Border force is an organisation with massive power and likes to act in secrecy, it is the willing, nay eager torture refugees and kids, oh and it is incompetent.
How good is that.
And another thing for our LNP boosters, supermarket shelves are bare, even in WA. Do you really think that voters don’t know why. Anger is mounting, not even Bullshitman can save them this time.
Wasn’t going to post but will to upgrade pcr s and rats
Daughter in New York hanging out with here +ve brothers in New York
Has pcr 2 days before boarding plane to fly back to Singapore…result -ve
Day to fly does rat test. -ve
Lands in Singapore 24 hrs later has another pcr to enter Singapore
Goes home next morning does another rat test -ve
1 hr later gets her pcr result from airport +ve.
Next day another rat test (doesn’t believe pcr result)….result -ve
Next does another rat test …..result -ve……mmmmmmm
Next day going to have a repeat pcr. But does a rat test first…….
Result +ve. Confirming +ve pcr from 3 days ago….
Have a son already has to postpone flight home twice his partner landed back in Melbourne this morning after flying home alone.
He has done a pcr a few hours ago hoping for -ve result so he can fly home rat test -ve but fingers x for -pcr
“I think it will be useful for your honour to consider two cases – both of them are going to be losses of mine, so I’ll be revisiting happy memories.”
I have made that joke. Next the judge tells you not only you lost but you don’t understand why you lost and shoves your loss back down your throat.
This Djokovic episode has all the hallmarks of someone trying to embarrass the PM.
Dutton getting busy?
C@tmomma @ #3154 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 4:30 pm
The ethics of the situation are pretty clear;
Do we want a high profile antivaxer coming to Australia?
If that was the question being considered, then his Visa should have been revoked before he got on a plane.
Apparently Novax has been arrested and forced in to one of the tunnels underneath the local Pizza Shop.
“I don’t stack a shelf, mate”
The rumour mill is running hot here in Melbourne re Novak Djokovic. Not sure what to believe. Lol!
the war with anti-vaxxors are not over until the fat lady sings!
Fuckwit at work:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/10/tough-times-scott-morrison-says-economy-obviously-taking-a-hit-from-omicron
Greensborough Growler @ #3162 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 4:38 pm
No, that’s a rescue mission. 🙂
There is talk of a 3 year ban now.
Are we seeing the final scene of the painfully lengthy collapse of this wretched Govt …?
It’s rather ironic that it involves Morrison’s baby – borders.
Or will he die on his feet and deport Djoko anyway ..?
I think Laura Tingle is a queen, but . . . .
Wardrobe mistress at ABC is an arsehole, her outfit tonight highlights all her figure faults [I have more]
@BiTB……”No, that’s a rescue mission.”
……or an intervention….lol
billie says:
Monday, January 10, 2022 at 7:42 pm
I think Laura Tingle is a queen, but . . . .
Wardrobe mistress at ABC is an arsehole, her outfit tonight highlights all her figure faults [I have more]
____________________
Don’t worry – BB will overlook the blemishes.
If Morrison and his cronies decide to deport Djokovic for less than 3 years
It will confirm to a lot of people , its political not a health decision in protecting people lives
Dr Doolittle @ #3150 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 7:23 pm
Brent explained his assumptions thus:
“by the time of the election next year, if the new Omicron strain allows it, Western Australia’s borders will again be reasonably porous. Covid restrictions will largely be scaled back and cross-jurisdictional bickering mostly a thing of the past.”
Brent presumes the swing to Labor will be less than 5.5% across WA. See if he says the same in April.
—
These days I take what the polls say in WA and QLD, cut them in half and take whatever that is as the upper limit of the swing against the Coalition in that state as best case scenario for Labor. So Brent might be on the money about WA but for different reasons than my own. i would not want to be relying on WA to win this election for either camp.
I predicted this outcome for the Dokjovic case. Morrison fecks up everything he touches. I was hoping for this, not because I have any care or respect for Dokjovic but so that Border Force and Morrison get a slap in the face by the courts.
It may also help raise awareness of those poor blighters who have been locked up, against all international human rights, for years in detention.
As soon as I saw Morrison do his hairy-chest act, I knew he was going to fail. He fails at everything.
Now Alex Hawke could cancel Dokjovic’s visa, which would lock Dokjovic out of Australia for three years. I suspect this could lead to Melbourne being removed from whatever international tennis tournament competition this is, and it going to another country. Tennis Australia, Victoria, and sports fans generally will not be happy about that.
So Minister Hawke can court the right-winger border-security botherers by cancelling the visa, but enrage Melburnians, sport and tennis fans and the anit-vaxxer crowd, or do the reverse and enrage people who see favouritism for rich sports stars and unnecessary support for the anti-vaxx knobhead mob.
Either decision could feed into a swing against the Lib candidates in Victoria, both State and Federal.
It is lose/lose for Minister Hawke and PM Morrison.
For Labor this is a strategically helpful decision.
For the imprisoned asylum seekers, perhaps a beam of light.
I said I would like to see Morrison peeing on his own foot, and he managed to hose down both of them!
who gives a shit about a wardrobe, male or female.
ye gads, when will this crap ever end.
Let’s just hear the unadorned truth.
The Liberals ground game in WA sounds like it has gone to pot. Having far less operatives in paid government employment really messes with that.
The rumour around the traps is that Novak has been detained again.
No idea if there is any truth to it.
Beguiledagain:
Why didn’t you use your putter on that 30 meter par three? I’ve putted from longer than that.
Many do use the Texas wedge on this hole but it actually is quite tricky.
There are bunkers on both sides of the hole with only a narrow space between the two so you really need to thread the needle.
Plus the green is quite elevated compared to the tee, I’ve seen plenty of players take the putter out, swing away then only to watch in horror as the ball doesn’t quite make it to the green, rolls back down the hill and stops virtually from where they “teed” off.
I heard he has been kidnapped by aliens….
On supermarket supplies. Morrison says he’s working on it.
Won’t be long before they’re completely empty, then.
lol #BoycottAustralianOpen on twitter.
compared to #BoycottChina.
The Guardian blog
Henry @ #3183 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 7:56 pm
Whereabouts is the windmill in relation to the hole? I detest those pesky windmills.
The Coming Storm BBC 4 podcast is well worth the time.
Like Puff I am not a Djokevic supporter but have no sympathy for Border Farce losing the court case.
If the ABF can screw up the exercise of their powers on such a high profile case, you have to wonder how many poor unfortunates languishing in immigration detention have been wrongly treated, but lack the means or opportunity to take legal action?
This government does not give a damn for the rule of law.
“These days I take what the polls say in WA and QLD, cut them in half and take whatever that is as the upper limit of the swing against the Coalition in that state as best case scenario for Labor. So Brent might be on the money about WA but for different reasons than my own. i would not want to be relying on WA to win this election for either camp.”
Well we all know there has never been and will never ever be a big red wave in WA at any level of Govt. Foolish to think otherwise. Put all your money on Labor losing all its WA seats.
WeWantPaul, who said that? Mark McGowan achieved a tidal wave of red.
WWP
Thanks for the heads up. I have subscribed to the podcast
“WeWantPaul, who said that? Mark McGowan achieved a tidal wave of red.”
Yeah it was a joke, and for the record I’m not saying it is LIKELY, just that ignoring the polls because ‘you know they are wrong’ is not all that well informed.
What did old mumble mumble before the red tidal wave at the state election? Honest question I can’t remember.
Socrates @ #3186 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 5:03 pm
Yep, all the Government lawyers had to do today was demonstrate that Border Force had followed the rules.
“This government does not give a damn for the rule of law.”
They haven’t since Howard’s time, a lot of what is rotten can be traced back directly to Howard.
Cheers, Poroti @6.35:
Inclined to agree. Time will tell.
Apologies for latish acknowledgement. Sustenance to prepare.
Socrates
If the ABF can screw up the exercise of their powers on such a high profile case, you have to wonder how many poor unfortunates languishing in immigration detention have been wrongly treated, but lack the means or opportunity to take legal action?
_________________________________
Indeed.
Okay channel nine is now reporting that Novak djokovics family believe ABF have detained him.
The wardrobe mistakes Tingle has appeared in while hosting 7:30 are quite a few. Never see those mistakes when Tingle is a guest on Insiders or at National Press Club