Poll relativities and the state of New South Wales

How the federal pollsters are differing, and an update on New South Wales by-elections likely to be held on February 12.

Past time for a new thread, though inevitably given the time of year there is not a lot to report. Polling fans might care to take note of Mark the Ballot’s latest update of a poll aggregate that tracks a three-point increase in the “others” vote over the past six months of last year, which came cleanly at the expense of the Coalition, and a neat display of pollster house effects that calibrates what close observers will have already noticed: that Resolve Strategic is (relatively speaking) high for “others” and low for Labor, Essential Research is high for both major parties, and Roy Morgan is high for the Greens.

Then there’s the New South Wales state by-elections, which deserves a thread of its own but won’t get one until the date is formally announced. The Speaker, Jonathan O’Dea, has strongly indicated it will be February 12. A milestone was reached last week when four of the departing MPs finally lodged their formal resignations. Not among them was Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons holding out until she is confirmed as the federal candidate for Hughes, if indeed that occurs. That leaves:

Strathfield (Labor 5.0%): Both parties now have candidates in place for the seat being vacated by Jodi McKay. Labor’s is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a former lawyer who worked for a time for the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and is now executive chairman of Vantage Asia Holdings. Yat-Sen Li was Labor’s candidate for Bennelong in 2013 third on the Senate ticket in 2019. The Liberal candidate is Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate after her daughter and three of her cousins were killed in a car crash in Oatlands in February last year.

Bega (Liberal 6.9%): The Liberal candidate to succeed Andrew Constance is Fiona Kotvojs, a beef farmer who has twice been narrowly unsuccessful as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro: in 2019, when she fell 0.8% short of unseating Mike Kelly, and at the by-election following Kelly’s retirement in July 2020, when Kristy McBain retained the seat for Labor by 0.4%. Labor’s candidate is Michael Holland, an obstetrician-gynaecologist at Moruya District Hospital and lecturer at the Australian National University medical school.

Monaro (Nationals 11.6%): The Nationals have had their candidate to succeed John Barilaro in place since October: Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer. Conversely, Labor initially planned to forfeit before a rebellion by local party branches prompted a change of heart.

Willoughby (Liberal 21.0%): The Liberals are yet to conduct a preselection that has attracted three candidates: Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney, who is reportedly backed by Gladys Berejiklian, Paul Fletcher and Andrew Bragg; former television journalist Kellie Sloane, who is backed by Mike Baird; and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, a factional conservative. Labor will not contest the seat, and in the absence of a strong independent emerging, of which I’ve seen no indication, the winner should have an easy time of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,324 comments on “Poll relativities and the state of New South Wales”

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  1. Just caught up with Puffy’s post at 3.28pm and although I disagree with much of what she said about the position of women in today’s (western) society I fully support her comments about the changing of the word ‘women’ to ‘people’ on official documents when describing those who have babies; and I am surprised that there are not more women speaking out against it. With everything they have to go through for much of their lives and the sacrifices they make to bring the next generation into the world, they surely deserve more respect and recognition than that.

  2. What a dung hill to die on…

    Former Australian tennis player and the federal member for Bennelong John Alexander says ministerial powers to cancel visas should be reserved for criminals, not the “political problem of the day”.

    In a post on his Facebook page, the Liberal politician said Novak Djokovic appeared to have complied with all the health entry requirements, and he did not seem to present an unreasonable risk to Australia.

  3. “Do you still have to be double vaccinated to watch the Oz open?”

    No, but a double lobotomy would probably explain why you were doing it!

  4. Djokovic suspected visa cancellation decision made by ‘someone above’
    By Adam Cooper

    Novak Djokovic suspected the decision to cancel his visa granting him entry into Australia was made by people above the officials he dealt with at Melbourne Airport, according to an affidavit made by the tennis star and released by the Federal Circuit Court.

    In his signed affidavit, released after Djokovic successfully had his visa cancellation overturned, the Serbian star said he was tired, upset and confused when an Australian Border Force official advised him he could be refused entry into the country early last Thursday, in the hours after his arrival at Melbourne Airport.

    Djokovic wrote that he told the official that he had been granted a medical exemption by Tennis Australia, and endorsed by the Victorian government, to compete in the Australian Open because he had recently recovered from COVID-19. He tested positive on December 16 and recorded a negative PCR test on December 22.

  5. “ One of the virtues of the current approach is standardization. Fixing a weight problem by deviating from standardization is not a good principle.”

    huh? that sort of rigidity of thinking is the hallmark of military catastrophe. The sort of thinking behind Omar Bradley rejecting ‘Hobart’s Funnies’ in the planning for Operation Overlord – which led to unnecessary carnage amongst the first echelon of the first wave on Omaha and Utah Beaches. The sort of thinking that saw the Americans refuse to deviate from the standard Sherman design to create an irregular, high velocity gunned ‘special’ with additional frontal armour to at least give the western allies a fighting chance against the Tigers and Panthers in the bocage maze of the hinterland behind the landing beaches, which led to said allies being stuck in Normandy for the whole of summer, which in turn led to the panicked Operation Market Garden in the fall.

    The Romans were probably the most standardised army systems in the ancient world. They never hesitated in deviating from standardisation if operational requirements dictated it.

    Can you imagine if Aulus Hurtius told Caesar on the morning of the battle of Pharsalus that he couldn’t possibly take one cohort from each legion out of the front line to form a fourth, secret line, armed with thrusting spears to counter Titus Labienus’s anticipated cavalry flanking manoeuvre because such a tactic ‘doesn’t conform to Legionary standardisation’? No? Me neither. Yet there you are. Doing exactly that.

    What you are effectively saying is that the Australian Army should not deviate from some idealised ‘standardisation’ even if it means leaving the first echelon of the first wave of any amphibious deployment without heavy armour: which if history has taught us anything is a recipe for carnage and very probably a failure of the entire operation.

    Of course there is enough ‘standardisation’ persisting with a small number of M1A1s If that is required. It has the same chassis, engine, 99% of the various subsystems. It’s effectively 99% interoperable with the heavier M1A2 and a platform which the army now have 15 years experience in operating.

    Here is another Idea – let me even bolder: I’d also retain our fleet of Tiger Helicopters to use for Amphibious Warfare, even though the government has decided to make the Apache the standard Attack/Reconnaissance Helo (too heavy and prone to rusting in maritime operations).

  6. Simon Banks is an interested observer…

    If you don’t understand how @ScottMorrisonMP is losing the LNP base over the @DjokerNole visa scandal

    You simply aren’t paying attention

  7. billie says:
    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 8:23 pm

    The world press is aligned with the government.

    don’t think they ‘strong arming’ him, more like he is trying to bend the rules exclusively for him.

  8. “FMD! Why does ABF think they can get away with strong arming Novax Djocovid if the world press is watching”

    They have a vast array of powers all they needed was one they could apply and a grad with a law degree (or probably any high school grad) to write a para or two explaining the decision strictly aligned to the law.

    Even assuming the Minister wanted it done but was unwilling to exercise any specific Ministerial powers. FFS these are the people who sent women back to saudi arabia so they could be killed. Surely there is someone there with admin law 101 skills.

  9. Billie

    I don’t see why we have to pretend we can’t appreciate an attractive outfit (or criticise bad taste) when watching TV. It’s all part of the entertainment really.

  10. From 9fax…

    The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald’s foreign affairs and national security correspondent Anthony Galloway reported earlier that the immigration minister has about four hours to decide whether to exercise his “personal power of cancellation” under section 133C(3) of the Migration Act.

    We are estimating the minister has until about 9.15pm

  11. shellbell
    Spectators at the Australian Open have to show proof they are double vaccinated or have a medical exemption certified by a doctor. The medical exemption must be in line with ATAGI rules. And the medical exemption can be given on the grounds that one has had COVID in the last 6 months.

  12. Lizzie what Laura was wearing tonight was wrong colours, wrong style that highlighted her figure faults, I have many more

    I assume that a wardrobe mistress is hired to acquire outfits for the talent that enhanced their authority and attractiveness. Tonight’s effort did nothing to promote authority or IEHCANDY. That’s an IBM in joke

  13. sprocket_says:

    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 8:26 pm

    Simon Banks is an interested observer…

    If you don’t understand how @ScottMorrisonMP is losing the LNP base over the @DjokerNole visa scandal

    You simply aren’t paying attention

    It appears to be all downhill after the statement”I don’t think. I know”.

  14. Nino Bucci
    Imagine cancelling Djokovic’s visa again and the soon-to-be best player of all time can’t play at your grand slam for three years. Or imagine not cancelling and having him rub it in your face for three weeks. Could say the Djok’s on the government…

  15. For what it is worth, I cannot see any value – political or logistical – in detaining Djokovic again unless and until his visa is cancelled by the Minister. As natural justice does not apply there is no need to give him a notice of intention to cancel or to give him an opportunity to argue his case.

    If Djokovic is detained again, I expect it will only be because the Minister personally (not a delegate) has cancelled the visa.

  16. BB
    ““We the people made the sacrifices, did everything and more that was asked of us, while our leaders printed pamphlets and made Power Point presentations.”

    Fightin’ words.”

    I thought Laura’s editorial was spot on. Blam! right between the eyes.

  17. John Goss

    Thanks. Does the exemption operate on the basis that an unvaccinated person who has suffered covid in the previous six months does not represent any great risk than a vaccinated person?

  18. A-E
    Standardization was one of THE major military innovations in its day. It is still good. One set of training. One set of spares. Battle replacements (which are huge issue with Australia’s supply chains), ditto. Ammunition that fits the barrels. Etc. etc. etc. Ammunition stockpiles, etc, etc, etc.

    Deliberate variations from standardization have their place. Introducing them because of weight issues is a piss poor first principle.

    Solving a weight problem, which apparently was the issue, by introducing a whole new weapons system is not nearly as clear cut as you make out.

    As for the Tigers, some very senior people should be sacked for the Tiger debacle.
    But not in the Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison governments. No doubt the reverse happened and some humungous gravy flowed with the extra Blackhawk sales.

  19. Not only is Morrison potentially alienating the “protect our borders” camp with this almighty screw-up, but I can’t imagine the anti-vaxxers he’s been stealthily trying to keep on board would be all too impressed with the strict stance on vaccines being shown here.

    Personally, I don’t really give a damn what happens with Djokovic, but it sure is fun watching Scomo dig yet another totally unnecessary hole for himself.

  20. Colbeck!
    He’s the Minister for Sport!
    Wiped out lots of clients in aged care!
    Hasn’t cooked a barramundi for ages!
    There’s your sacrificial goat right there!

  21. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/i-don-t-understand-what-djokovic-told-border-force-at-the-airport-20220110-p59n80.html

    Transcript of Novak Border Control interviews.. Novak’s command of English appears stronger than the BC official.. if you can get past all the ‘Um’s ” uttered it’s obvious Novak was offered an opportunity to differ decision & provision of additional information. I believe BC training is obviously extremely deficient to say the least.. maybe Qantas could be asked to provide a course or 2 of remedial training .. or someone form police hostage negotiation.

  22. is it possible Hawke is deliberately waiting until wed/thu so that, if Djoker takes the legal contest route, it wont resolve until after the Aus Open starts nxt monday thus preventing him from participating no matter what?

    will be short term galling to have Novak out and about for a couple of days, but he can always say he needed this time to consult and get legal advice etc… possibly negotiate with Novak to voluntarily leave rather than face a 3 yr ban

    doing it right now gives Novak the chance to litigate again and win his way towards being able to play, even though i would say its not a great chance

    if i were a true macchiavellian, its what I would do in their position!

  23. Novak’s conduct in the transcript is impressive actually. Can see why he is world champion as anybody normal would lose their cool.

  24. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 8:49 pm
    Federal Government divided by Novax. Could this be the end for the Libs?


    Nah. John Alexander is being managed out, Rex style. Too wet.

  25. John Alexander is retiring this election, so can probably speak a bit more freely than the average backbencher, but it will be interesting if a few more Libs come out with similar sentiments.

  26. shellbell
    For Australian residents the medical exemption due to having had covid is only a temporary exemption. You need to get vaccinated 6 months after you have had COVID. I’m not sure why having COVID gives one a medical exemption but it may be because of possible negative interactions between a vaccination and recent infection.

  27. Immigration minister will not decide to cancel visa again tonight
    By Anthony Galloway

    Immigration Minister Alex Hawke will not make a decision on whether to cancel Djokovic’s visa tonight.

    Mr Hawke had four hours to use his personal power under the Migration Act if the government wanted to try to keep the tennis champion in detention.

    But the government has decided to not make a decision within the four-hour period, meaning Djokovic is free to leave.

    It is expected Mr Hawke will make a decision on whether to cancel his visa as early as tomorrow.

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