Poll relativities and the state of New South Wales

How the federal pollsters are differing, and an update on New South Wales by-elections likely to be held on February 12.

Past time for a new thread, though inevitably given the time of year there is not a lot to report. Polling fans might care to take note of Mark the Ballot’s latest update of a poll aggregate that tracks a three-point increase in the “others” vote over the past six months of last year, which came cleanly at the expense of the Coalition, and a neat display of pollster house effects that calibrates what close observers will have already noticed: that Resolve Strategic is (relatively speaking) high for “others” and low for Labor, Essential Research is high for both major parties, and Roy Morgan is high for the Greens.

Then there’s the New South Wales state by-elections, which deserves a thread of its own but won’t get one until the date is formally announced. The Speaker, Jonathan O’Dea, has strongly indicated it will be February 12. A milestone was reached last week when four of the departing MPs finally lodged their formal resignations. Not among them was Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons holding out until she is confirmed as the federal candidate for Hughes, if indeed that occurs. That leaves:

Strathfield (Labor 5.0%): Both parties now have candidates in place for the seat being vacated by Jodi McKay. Labor’s is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a former lawyer who worked for a time for the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and is now executive chairman of Vantage Asia Holdings. Yat-Sen Li was Labor’s candidate for Bennelong in 2013 third on the Senate ticket in 2019. The Liberal candidate is Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate after her daughter and three of her cousins were killed in a car crash in Oatlands in February last year.

Bega (Liberal 6.9%): The Liberal candidate to succeed Andrew Constance is Fiona Kotvojs, a beef farmer who has twice been narrowly unsuccessful as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro: in 2019, when she fell 0.8% short of unseating Mike Kelly, and at the by-election following Kelly’s retirement in July 2020, when Kristy McBain retained the seat for Labor by 0.4%. Labor’s candidate is Michael Holland, an obstetrician-gynaecologist at Moruya District Hospital and lecturer at the Australian National University medical school.

Monaro (Nationals 11.6%): The Nationals have had their candidate to succeed John Barilaro in place since October: Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer. Conversely, Labor initially planned to forfeit before a rebellion by local party branches prompted a change of heart.

Willoughby (Liberal 21.0%): The Liberals are yet to conduct a preselection that has attracted three candidates: Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney, who is reportedly backed by Gladys Berejiklian, Paul Fletcher and Andrew Bragg; former television journalist Kellie Sloane, who is backed by Mike Baird; and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, a factional conservative. Labor will not contest the seat, and in the absence of a strong independent emerging, of which I’ve seen no indication, the winner should have an easy time of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,324 comments on “Poll relativities and the state of New South Wales”

Comments Page 63 of 67
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  1. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 6:11 pm

    Back in about 2011-18…’
    =======================
    One of the virtues of the current approach is standardization. Fixing a weight problem by deviating from standardization is not a good principle.

  3. Relations between K. Andrews’ department and A .Hawke’s could be interesting over the next three or four hours.

  4. The court gave Scotty a slap down and an out.
    The smart move would be to cut your losses and maximize any gains: execute a junior functionary and wish Djolo well with his endeavours.
    Arresting Djoko would be dumb and dumber, IMO.
    So it could well happen.

  6. The federal minister for immigration has warned he may exercise further powers to cancel Djokovic’s visa again, just after a judge overturned the initial cancellation.

  9. Presumably Tennis Oz is currently lobbying the minister not to deport Djokovic. They want him as a drawcard for the Open and the prospect of him being banned from Australia for three years would cost them many $$$.

  11. Morrison and his cronies will look more incompetent and sore losers

    Djokovic wins a court case against the Minister of home Affairs

    Federal Immigration minister intervenes , Djokovic gets deported

    The Minister of home Affairs remains

  14. ABC’s The Drum.. such an easygoing informative program ( except when Stan Grant is hosting) … very informative tonight…

    Edit
    Rex Douglas
    My money is on Morrison capitulating and Djokovic stays.

    Consensus seems to be Aust vaccination laws have been tough for 10 years.. for better or worse… .. Djokovic is a risk to others…

  17. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 6:42 pm
    My money is on Morrison capitulating and Djokovic stays.

    Not Morrison…..he is one stubborn bastard and he won’t want to be seen as losing anything……especially on borders.

  18. Confessions at 6:41 pm

    Yep Tennis Australia have 4 hours to prove how good their lobbying skills are.

    Josh Boy could a good ‘inside contact’ for them.

  23. The focus group would be members of the Kooyong tennis club the Grace Park tennis club and the Royal South Yarra tennis club and the question will be what will they do to Joshie and Katie.

  25. “Nath and L’arse right into the circular arse sniffing and licking, on cue. Sad, but sick-funny all the same.”

    Oh you’re such an old cynic, yabba. Nath and LVT are an adorable couple. Who knew that their two-way circle jerk would lead to true love?

  27. Mexicanbeemer
    “The focus group would be members of the Kooyong tennis club the Grace Park tennis club and the Royal South Yarra tennis club and the question will be what will they do to Joshie and Katie.”

    If you want to exonerate ScoMo, you don’t need to go to that much trouble. Just ask the Herald-Sun to conduct an on-line poll.

  28. to GG, I appreciate the pun on saving ‘our borders’. Short on printer paper today and unwilling to risk a covid / Officeworks trip I reversed old tax returns. But reversed the date order of the stack and printed on the 2020 return and most of 2019. oops

  29. When the govt lawyer Tran flagged to judge that the only grounds on which the cancellation was made on Thu was that Novak was a threat to the health of the Australian community (as opposed to safety or good order), that stuck me as strange as it was the weakest of the three s116 grounds

    can see now that they were shaping up to argue that basis only, knowing there was a chance that it would be thrown out… but leaving the other two grounds as a basis for a subsequent cancellation

    turns out they didnt even think it was worth arguing that basis. Hawke has very broad powers, pretty much can decide that Novak is a threat to good order and cancel away (his anti-vax anti-mask symbolism poses a tenable threat to public order at the aussie open, not to mention any susceptible people he might influence by being able to play)

    i wouldnt be surprised if his staff are in direct negotiations with Novak’s team – “mate, get on a plane and leave now… you miss this year but can come back next year… or you can roll the dice and risk being banned for 3 yrs if i go ahead, and your chances of winning in court are small”. Pretty high stakes gamble to take on the Immi Minister’s v broad s133 power i think. natural justice rights excluded, odds stacked against you.

    politically, i cant see how Hawke doesnt act? too much egg on face to let Novak compete?

  30. Kakauru
    Those clubs members wouldn’t be herald sun readers but are more like the age or AFR readers but maybe they might glance at the herald sun when no one is looking. 😉

  34. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 6:49 pm

    Boerwar at 6:43 pm
    We’ll get to be informed that “Australia continues serving aces against the covid virus”.’
    ============================================
    Double fault?

  36. Those with money can afford to use the law.

    Those without (refugees) are not entitled to use the same use of the ‘law’.

    Embarrassing.

  37. I am not a TERF. I wish men, as well as women, and LHBTQI etc be freed by Feminism from exclusive roles imposed on them by a
    patriarchal ideology.

    Patriarchy fucks up men’s lives too. This includes anyone who trans from any gender to another, womb or not. Why women who transitioned from maleness would be a threat I am I do not know. They are just another group who have been vilified by society and its binary view of humans, at least in the’ Western’ world. Other societies value transgender people and have valued roles for them in the community.

    I am saying that treating women with questions, or women who see the possibility that we could end up with two genders in our society, Men and everyone else shoved under the label of ‘Persons’ and who reject that, as the evil female is perpetuating a patriarchal and misogynist discrimination.

    If someone wants to use ‘person’ so be it. But if it is part of rendering the female invisible then others, including women, men, transitioning men and women and any one of the six or more genders that exist, or a genderless human, can comment on it. It is not that only women with inside female bits are the only ones who might not be happy to see ‘women’ replaced by ‘persons’.

    Person, in my opinion, should mean that, everyone; men women, men and women who have transitioned, non-binary gender identifiers, and even those who describe themselves as Alien (there is at least one). It does to me.

    No doubt there are women, even feminist females born with a womb, who see transitioned women as male gatecrashers into the sacred and holy Feminine of Human existence, see them as and acting like ‘typical’ men, crying ‘Look at me, my needs first and all, shut up you with wombs, this is my territory now, and if you do not do as I say I will see you ostracised, shouted down and cancelled, out of a job and vilified’.

    That is not me, I totally accept transitioning both ways. Having my womb removed has not lessened my idea of being a woman. But these attitudes are out there, as those who have transitioned well know. What to do about these attitudes, if anything, is up to individuals themselves I suppose.

    But one thing is sure, the answers are not going to be simple, like slapping a TERF label on anyone who asks a question, and using the label to silence them. Debate is my idea of a useful strategy.

    My discussion of domestic violence was an example of having a broad view and being willing to support people whom one might be expected to not care about. Just because I suffered under Patriarchy and the resulting misogyny has not made me immune to the needs of people who can be rescued from being perpetrators of Domestic Violence. I drew the analogy from that.
    I just want to show that one does not have to be locked into a box by one’s past experience.

    I hope this clarify things a bit, as I know I am a bit strange in my thoughts, sometimes.

  38. Zerlo @ #3127 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 3:59 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 6:53 pm

    It doesn’t matter, they are separated and cannot travel.

    “separated,” really????????????

    That decision means the family will not be able to return to their community in Biloela. Instead, they will remain in community detention in Perth.

  39. Scout
    There is a whole legal industry specialising in supporting them but the problem is the use of ministerial powers by the minister.

  40. ”
    sprocket_says:

    Monday, January 10, 2022 at 5:38 pm

    Not sure what is being reported, but just having watched Djokovic submissions and the decision to throw out the visa cancellation – I reckon someone in BorderForce is going to get the Order of the Boot.

    In short, by holding Djokovic at the airport and issuing him a flawed Notice of Intention of Cancellation, led to the visa cancellation being squashed
    ”

    This reminds me of the Court case in 2007 just before Federal election where an Indian Muslim Doctor was arrested at Airport and put in detention centre with charges “Terrorism”. The case was thrown out of Court, the Doctor released and allowed to go home.

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2007/07/hane-j20.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/23/australia-sorry-doctor-terrorism-charges

  41. The federal government has also suffered more egg on face today with reports of how the children’s vaccine rollout is going. Or not going as it turns out.

    And WTF with the army guy standing up there in full dress uniform yammering about how there are heaps of vaccines to go around? He looks ridiculous, esp when on the ground reports say otherwise.

  43. Mr Morrison insisted the best medical advice was to avoid lockdowns and to ride out the wave of Omicron cases, which the government expects will peak in late January.

    “You push through, you don’t lock down,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/omicron-spread-faster-than-first-thought-pm-20220110-p59n46.html

    Many people are choosing to lock down, if the empty Sydney trains, CBD, shop and hospitality outlet closures are any indication.

  46. Renae Stubbs, fwiw, was just interviewed on The Project and she was of the view that it was all a Morrison ‘Tough On Borders’ ‘I Stopped This Guy’, political stunt.

  48. ” And WTF with the army guy standing up there in full dress uniform yammering about how there are heaps of vaccines to go around? He looks ridiculous, esp when on the ground reports say otherwise.”

    This guy?

  50. nath @ #3060 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 6:09 pm

    that’s a good point Lars. The eventual outcome could be a black eye for Dan Andrews and a feather in the cap of Scott Morrison.

    —
    You forgot to mention Bill Sh0rten in your fantasy outcome Nath. Lift your game son.

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