Past time for a new thread, though inevitably given the time of year there is not a lot to report. Polling fans might care to take note of Mark the Ballot’s latest update of a poll aggregate that tracks a three-point increase in the “others” vote over the past six months of last year, which came cleanly at the expense of the Coalition, and a neat display of pollster house effects that calibrates what close observers will have already noticed: that Resolve Strategic is (relatively speaking) high for “others” and low for Labor, Essential Research is high for both major parties, and Roy Morgan is high for the Greens.
Then there’s the New South Wales state by-elections, which deserves a thread of its own but won’t get one until the date is formally announced. The Speaker, Jonathan O’Dea, has strongly indicated it will be February 12. A milestone was reached last week when four of the departing MPs finally lodged their formal resignations. Not among them was Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons holding out until she is confirmed as the federal candidate for Hughes, if indeed that occurs. That leaves:
Strathfield (Labor 5.0%): Both parties now have candidates in place for the seat being vacated by Jodi McKay. Labor’s is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a former lawyer who worked for a time for the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and is now executive chairman of Vantage Asia Holdings. Yat-Sen Li was Labor’s candidate for Bennelong in 2013 third on the Senate ticket in 2019. The Liberal candidate is Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate after her daughter and three of her cousins were killed in a car crash in Oatlands in February last year.
Bega (Liberal 6.9%): The Liberal candidate to succeed Andrew Constance is Fiona Kotvojs, a beef farmer who has twice been narrowly unsuccessful as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro: in 2019, when she fell 0.8% short of unseating Mike Kelly, and at the by-election following Kelly’s retirement in July 2020, when Kristy McBain retained the seat for Labor by 0.4%. Labor’s candidate is Michael Holland, an obstetrician-gynaecologist at Moruya District Hospital and lecturer at the Australian National University medical school.
Monaro (Nationals 11.6%): The Nationals have had their candidate to succeed John Barilaro in place since October: Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer. Conversely, Labor initially planned to forfeit before a rebellion by local party branches prompted a change of heart.
Willoughby (Liberal 21.0%): The Liberals are yet to conduct a preselection that has attracted three candidates: Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney, who is reportedly backed by Gladys Berejiklian, Paul Fletcher and Andrew Bragg; former television journalist Kellie Sloane, who is backed by Mike Baird; and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, a factional conservative. Labor will not contest the seat, and in the absence of a strong independent emerging, of which I’ve seen no indication, the winner should have an easy time of it.
3,324 comments on “Poll relativities and the state of New South Wales”
Dr Doolittle @ #3289 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 10:22 pm
Thank you Dr Doolittle. That first link was very helpful indeed. A conflation it is. Poll Bludger is very helpful for such questions and thank you for the additional background 🙂
Expat Follower @ #3291 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 9:16 pm
Well, huge win except for that the right trucks with the anti-vaxxers and pretty much needs their support to win an election. The most strongly pro-vax cohort favors their opponents.
“Why is Novak a dick? He followed the advice he received and conducted himself in good faith.”
He is an anti vaxxer and his whole ‘having covid and cured’ smells like a pile of money.
At the very beginning, there was general anger at perceptions of special treatement, and the onus was on Djokovic to explain why he was eligible for the exemption. But by ballsing this up so badly, including very confident chest-thumping from the SfM, the onus has now shifted on the Government to explain why they handled this SO BADLY.
The question for the Government is, do they double-down and hope for the best or concede defeat?
This. In a nutshell.
I don’t care what happens. The Court was right to set aside on procedural grounds – so right, that the Minister conceded and an agreement was reached. But the substantive grounds were never tested. So the Minister has every right to reconsider whether a cancellation is justified.
However, most of the general public are not interested in the niceties of proper administrative process. Some are still strong on getting Novax tossed; others see the Federal Court as having adjudicated the matter and that should be the end of it.
Truly a justified horns of a dilemma for this bunch of clowns.
Imagine if he plays after all this, takes all the abuse and vitriol thrown his way, and still wins it… all else aside, that would be the most resilient sporting achievement in history i reckon
Yep. Way bigger and a greater feat of sporting resiliency than Jesse Owens’ gold medals at the 1936 Berlin Olympics in front of Adolf Hitler. 🙄
WeWantPaul @ #3299 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 10:48 pm
I still can’t get over the photos of him on Dec 17 and 18 looking hale and hearty when he was supposed to be sick with Covid again. I also reflect back on seeing both Glenn McGrath and Nick Kyrgios looking sick as dogs with Covid last week. Something doesn’t gel.
a r @ #3298 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 10:47 pm
Yes, the whole thing must be playing merry hell with Morrison’s demographic calculations wrt his path to victory at the election.
And just so we don’t forget that two are playing this game:
Because his Covid test status is far too convenient to be anything other than dodgy.
He says he tested positive on December 16th, perfect timing… with just enough margin to test clear by now, and still count as a medical exemption, while allowing his pre-test and post-test schedule of clubbing, public events , tennis tournaments and social events to proceed unimpared.
No symptoms, though. How wonderful. But Novac is a health nut. Everybody knows that. He’s the man who can get Covid twice, have no symptoms, refuse to be vaccinated, go out socializing without infecting anyone else, avoid all the rules and anti-infection protocols everybody else has to obey, and win Grand slam tennis tournaments with millions in prize money. No wonder the Serbs reckon he’s divine.
And if he had not tested positive so fortuitously?
No AO for Novac.
And there is the rub: without the positive test result arriving just when it did, almost to the day, Djokovic couldn’t possibly have played in the Open, which must have had him as favourite, given his record here.
It pretty obviously needs a little more investigation..
It’s as if Novax knows what procedural fairness means as indicated in this section of his interview, released by the Federal Court:
[‘DJOKOVIC: So you’re giving me legally 20 minutes to try to provide additional information that I don’t have? At 4 o’clock in the morning? I mean you kind of put me in a very awkward position where at four in the morning I can’t call director of Tennis Australia, I can’t engage with anybody from the Victorian state government through Tennis Australia. I just you put me in a very uncomfortable position. I don’t know what else can I tell you. I mean everything that they, I was asked to do is here.
And I wouldn’t be here sitting in front of you if I if I wasn’t complying to all the rules and regulations set by your government. I mean to me it is a little bit shocking that you are going to give me the notice to cancel my visa based on what?
You’re giving me 20 minutes to do what? I tell you right away I have nothing else to tell you. If you can, we wait for eight in the morning and then I can call Tennis Australia and then we can try and figure this out. But right now?
They’re all sleepy, I don’t know. I mean I just arrived at 1am, I don’t know what else I can do at this moment. It just doesn’t make any sense. I mean I have done everything I possibly can. Right now I can call my agent. You told me not to use my phone, so I’m not communicating with anybody, no one knows what’s going on.’]
The average person in this situation would probably start throwing
anything not screwed down but Novax was cool as a cucumber. And it’s little wonder that Kelly, J found in his favour.
“The average person in this situation would probably start throwing
anything not screwed down but Novax was cool as a cucumber. And it’s little wonder that Kelly, J found in his favour”
The average person probably would have been put into a cell and on a flight out without access to lawyers, in the unlikely event they had the money And if they did get to contact a lawyer and got into the hotel detention it would probably have taken 6 months to get a hearing and the odds of a different outcome is very high.
Cat said “All I know is, if Hawke and Morrison cancel the visa again, they’ll lose every Serbian-Australian vote in the country. ”
However he may well get the votes of every Australian of Croatian, Slovenian, Bosnian, Kosovarian etc. descent!! Not a lot of love lost in the Balkans for the Serbs.
C@tmomma @ #3305 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 10:57 pm
You may want to reconsider this comparison, let alone the outcome of said comparison.
poroti @ #3284 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 9:57 pm
A belated thank you as well poroti.
Mavis @ #3310 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 10:27 pm
I mean, if you’re just handing out accolades to anyone that’s not a total psycho, I think that’s a very low bar to clear but I guess I’ll take some.
“The average person probably would have been put into a cell and on a flight out without access to lawyers”
Not if they are an au-pair. 🙂
Morrison will shrug his shoulder, claim the courts decision to be correct, blame everyone and anybody available, declare the issue finished and move on to the next calamity.
Morrison will show himself to be correct as most Australians don’t engage with tennis or politics.
Toilet paper is the major issue for the majority of Australians.
Australia is overdue for some “wholesome” holiday snaps of the most self-indulgent PM ever.
Half of Australia would be unable to confidently name the current PM.
A delightful mess. Like watching a fight between two annoying neighbours. Difficult to know who to barrack for.
Seems pretty unlikely he had COVID (again) in December as he claims. Looks fine in videos from 15,16 and 17th. Why would he bother having a test?
Should be sent home for trying to BS us. Once he has caused some more pain to Scotty
bryon says Tuesday, January 11, 2022 at 1:49 am
While I share a degree of skepticism about his December COVID-19 positive COVID-19 PCR test, he has produced medical records supporting his claim. I think it would therefore be up to those making accusations against him to prove that he was not infected. I’m not sure how they would do this short of some sort of antibody count in a blood test. Somehow I can’t see Djokovic willingly providing a blood sample, even if had in fact been infected.
As to why he would have had the PCR test in December? I don’t know the specifics of his case, but there are plenty of people in Australia, including professional athletes, who are required to regularly undergo testing despite having no symptoms.
How Athletes Fall for Pseudoscience, and Wellness Leads to Conspiracy Theories: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqyRPHJ8JZM
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Griff @ #3313 Monday, January 10th, 2022 – 11:49 pm
I hope he gets beaten in round one by some nobody from Uzbekistan.
But still, amazing how resilient multi-millionaires can be.