Poll relativities and the state of New South Wales

How the federal pollsters are differing, and an update on New South Wales by-elections likely to be held on February 12.

Past time for a new thread, though inevitably given the time of year there is not a lot to report. Polling fans might care to take note of Mark the Ballot’s latest update of a poll aggregate that tracks a three-point increase in the “others” vote over the past six months of last year, which came cleanly at the expense of the Coalition, and a neat display of pollster house effects that calibrates what close observers will have already noticed: that Resolve Strategic is (relatively speaking) high for “others” and low for Labor, Essential Research is high for both major parties, and Roy Morgan is high for the Greens.

Then there’s the New South Wales state by-elections, which deserves a thread of its own but won’t get one until the date is formally announced. The Speaker, Jonathan O’Dea, has strongly indicated it will be February 12. A milestone was reached last week when four of the departing MPs finally lodged their formal resignations. Not among them was Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons holding out until she is confirmed as the federal candidate for Hughes, if indeed that occurs. That leaves:

Strathfield (Labor 5.0%): Both parties now have candidates in place for the seat being vacated by Jodi McKay. Labor’s is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a former lawyer who worked for a time for the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and is now executive chairman of Vantage Asia Holdings. Yat-Sen Li was Labor’s candidate for Bennelong in 2013 third on the Senate ticket in 2019. The Liberal candidate is Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate after her daughter and three of her cousins were killed in a car crash in Oatlands in February last year.

Bega (Liberal 6.9%): The Liberal candidate to succeed Andrew Constance is Fiona Kotvojs, a beef farmer who has twice been narrowly unsuccessful as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro: in 2019, when she fell 0.8% short of unseating Mike Kelly, and at the by-election following Kelly’s retirement in July 2020, when Kristy McBain retained the seat for Labor by 0.4%. Labor’s candidate is Michael Holland, an obstetrician-gynaecologist at Moruya District Hospital and lecturer at the Australian National University medical school.

Monaro (Nationals 11.6%): The Nationals have had their candidate to succeed John Barilaro in place since October: Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer. Conversely, Labor initially planned to forfeit before a rebellion by local party branches prompted a change of heart.

Willoughby (Liberal 21.0%): The Liberals are yet to conduct a preselection that has attracted three candidates: Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney, who is reportedly backed by Gladys Berejiklian, Paul Fletcher and Andrew Bragg; former television journalist Kellie Sloane, who is backed by Mike Baird; and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, a factional conservative. Labor will not contest the seat, and in the absence of a strong independent emerging, of which I’ve seen no indication, the winner should have an easy time of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,324 comments on “Poll relativities and the state of New South Wales”

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  1. Just FYI

    SteelyDan it was NSW WHO wanted to open up because the economy and it looked bad for LIBERALS AND SCOMO.

    Also Fed Libs pushes the county to open and refuse to lockdown ever again or wanted any restrictions

    Ya fuxkwit.

  2. Should we take bets on Tim James being the Liberal candidate in Willoughby? He ticks all the right boxes:
    – white male
    – from the ‘conservative’ faction

  6. Australia will “ride the wave” of Omicron as record daily coronavirus cases overwhelm hospitals and testing sites, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison declaring the nation has no choice but to press on as he confirmed major changes to pandemic testing.

    About 6.6 million Australians will be eligible for 10 free rapid antigen tests over three months, but national cabinet chose not to make them free for everyone, in part due to concerns about the strain on a stretched transport network.

    More than 64,700 people tested positive for coronavirus in Australia on Wednesday as Victoria cancelled elective surgery, 50 medical staff tested positive at one hospital in Hobart, and testing sites were shut around the nation in the morning. Experts predict cases will continue to surge and may be as much as 10 times higher than official figures.

    “We have no choice but to ride the wave. What’s the alternative? What we must do is press on,” Mr Morrison told reporters on Wednesday afternoon.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/free-rapid-antigen-tests-for-four-million-eligible-australians-but-others-pay-20220105-p59m3x.html

    Well he’s right about that. Thanks to him and his government’s incompetence, actively abetted by Perrottet’s arrogance and ignorance, we now have no choice but to ‘ride the wave’.

    The choices we could’ve made way back when to procure vaccines, roll the program out efficiently and effectively, procure RATs and have these available free to the public for use, keep public health measures in place to slow (even stop) the spread of infection, and stage the reopening of our borders have now long passed.

  9. Reminder
    Morrison lies will not stop , he tried to blame the Victorian government yesterday
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jan/05/novak-djokovics-australian-open-participation-in-doubt-over-visa-row

    “The federal government has asked if we will support Novak Djokovic’s visa application to enter Australia,” Pulford said. “We will not be providing Novak Djokovic with individual visa application support to participate in the 2022 Australian Open grand slam [tournament]. We’ve always been clear on two points: visa approvals are a matter for the federal government, and medical exemptions are a matter for doctors.”

  10. As the smoke clears at Old Parliament House, there’s glimmers of hope from the blackened wreckage

    […] the doors, built in the 1920s from solid jarrah timber, may well be salvaged thanks to old-school craftsmanship.

    “We had thought that they’d completely gone, and the conservators came and had a look and because of the construction and age of the doors, they’ve actually got four layers of jarrah, and [only] the outside layers are completely charred,” Ms Gwynn said.

    She said if the doors had been constructed in recent decades, with a more streamlined design, or even a different timber, it’s likely they would not have withstood the flames.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7571339/glimmers-of-hope-from-blackened-wreckage/

  12. Morning all. With covid rampant in NSW and the state bi-elections approaching, are any of the seats now in the contestable range? Scomo dropping Novak like a hot spud illustrates he realises public sentiment is hostile. Omicron Dom surely faces a backlash?

  13. In a separate issue that complicated his arrival, acting Victorian Sports Minister Jaala Pulford said Australian Border Force officials contacted the state government hours before Djokovic landed. The 20-time grand slam winner was attempting to enter the country on a visa that did not permit medical exemptions for being unvaccinated, a source briefed on the matter told The Age and the Herald.

    As a result, Ms Pulford said Border Force sought Victorian government support to facilitate Djokovic’s entry. The federal agency asked for the Andrews government’s support because Victoria partners with Tennis Australia in running the event that Djokovic’s visa pertains to. Victorian officials asked the federal authorities to put their request in writing and Ms Pulford said the request to sponsor Djokovic’s visa was rejected.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/visa-bungle-delays-novak-djokovic-s-entry-into-australia-20220105-p59m75.html

    Interesting. And contrary to reports we saw yesterday.

  14. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/cases-covid-19-climb-in-sydney-s-aged-care-facilities-20220105-p59m2j.html

    COVID-19 cases are climbing in NSW aged care facilities, with concerns about infection control, staffing shortages and the mental health of locked-down residents as the sector struggles to provide care in the Omicron surge.

    There were 652 active COVID-19 cases in residents of NSW aged care facilities by Tuesday, an increase of nearly 100 in four days.

  15. Confessionssays:
    Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 6:51 am

    This to me screams fed involvement in trying to get him to play, then blame the state (being a labor state).

  17. No matter what happens now even if Djokovic is deported , Morrison and his cronies must explain why they and Border Force allowed Djokovic onto the plane to come to Australia in the first place

  18. One more comment on the submarine saga, based on my holiday reading: there is an amazing disconnect in “expert” opinion pieces on nuclear submarines between the cost (everyone says it will be higher) and the choice of submarine (lots of the defense fanboys want us to get the latest greatest sub, the US Virginia Block 5).

    This article by government funded think tank ASPI is a good example. It completely ignores cost in recommending the US sub.
    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/implementing-australias-nuclear-submarine-program/

    Yet the cost differences between the options are huge – tens of billions. The current costs per sub are Astute A$2.6 billion each, Virginia Block 4 A$3.9 billion each, Virginia Block 5 A$4.8 billion each, Shortfin Barracuda A$7.4 billion each. There would be additional costs to set up nuclear sub construction and inspection infrastructure (billions) and operating costs for 30 years each ($200 million per sub or approx $2 billion per year x 30 years. The US boats have the largest crews and so highest operating cost as well as higher capital cost than the UK subs. Overall the UK subs are cheaper by $20+ billion to buy and $10+ billion over 30 years to operate.

    So you can see where this is headed. All options are expensive but some are far more expensive than others. The difference between the latest, greatest US subs and the (still more than adequate and easier to build locally) UK subs is $30+ billion – literally enough to fund the NDIS.

    (The price of the French boats had become absurd and I only included them for purposes of comparison. Naval Group was charging Australia more per sub to build diesel Attack Class than they charged the French government to build their nuclear subs).

    For comparison, lest people criticise them too much, the Collins Class subs cost $850 million each in 1999, or about $1.5 billion each in 2022 dollars. So important to note the real cost of building subs ourselves last time was actually cheaper than all current options. Hence don’t let anyone say Australia is “too expensive”. So is every other western nation when it comes to building submarines.

    Have a good day all.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Kevin Rudd hits Morrison with both barrels, saying his dereliction of duty over rapid Covid tests is a threat to Australians’ public safety. He describes the PM’s hogwash arguments against free rapid tests as ranging from hypocritical to obscene. OUCH!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/05/scott-morrisons-dereliction-of-duty-over-rapid-covid-tests-is-a-threat-to-australians-public-safety
    Australia will “ride the wave” of Omicron as record daily coronavirus cases overwhelm hospitals and testing sites, with Scott Morrison declaring the nation has no choice but to press on as he confirmed major changes to pandemic testing, writes Rachel Clun.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/free-rapid-antigen-tests-for-four-million-eligible-australians-but-others-pay-20220105-p59m3x.html
    As Australia moves from Covid control to chaos, Raina McIntyre says there are two ways laying ahead for us. This is quite confronting.
    https://theconversation.com/from-covid-control-to-chaos-what-now-for-australia-two-pathways-lie-before-us-174325
    Elective surgery has been halted again as pressure mounts on Victoria’s hospitals, ambulances and testing systems amid escalating Omicron infections.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/hospitals-are-being-crippled-elective-surgery-halted-as-health-system-strains-under-pressure-20220105-p59m1j.html
    Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases are climbing in NSW aged care facilities, with concerns about infection control, staffing shortages and the mental health of locked-down residents as the sector struggles to provide care in the Omicron surge.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/cases-covid-19-climb-in-sydney-s-aged-care-facilities-20220105-p59m2j.html
    A south-west Sydney nursing home is battling a major Covid outbreak with families now questioning the timing of booster shots and why positive cases were kept in close quarters with uninfected residents. It has 38 residents and 25 staff who have tested positive to Covid.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/06/covid-outbreak-at-sydney-nursing-home-leaves-residents-petrified
    Peter Hannam reports that Tweed hospital has no Covid diagnosis equipment, is operating a makeshift triage tent and has nurses doing ‘double shifts every day’ as local cases triple
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/06/falling-over-in-a-screaming-heap-over-worked-staff-quit-under-resourced-nsw-regional-hospital
    A NSW emergency nurse anonymously writes that the foundations of our healthcare system have been washed away.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/05/the-foundations-of-our-healthcare-system-have-been-washed-away
    Failing to ensure that every Australian has free and easy access to RAT tests will worsen the economic impact of the current outbreak, argues Angela Jackson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-it-makes-economic-sense-to-make-rats-free-20220105-p59lzn.html
    The Canberra Times editorial is unimpressed with Morrison’s gyrations and says that the only way to ensure potentially infectious, but asymptomatic, close contacts – of whom there are now probably millions – keep out of circulation is to fix the supply chain and distribute rapid antigen tests for free.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7571342/morrisons-covid-catch-22-must-end-now/?cs=14258
    And the editorial in the AFR says that with an election approaching, the Prime Minister appears to be being dragged along by omicron rather than confidently leading the nation out of the pandemic.
    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/morrison-trails-on-the-testing-politics-of-omicron-20220104-p59lsx
    The distributor of Australia’s only locally made and approved rapid antigen test has hit out at retailers for selling the sought-after kits at excessive prices. Shida Kebriti, the managing director of Eczanes Pharmaceuticals, which distributes the Innoscreen COVID-19 test, said her company charged pharmacies about $15 for two tests.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/absolutely-price-gouging-australian-rapid-test-distributor-slams-retail-price-rises-20220105-p59m0r.html
    The Herald-Sun reckons the latest Covid chaos shows the Morrison government continues to be stuck in reactionary mode, despite being able to learn from international experiences.
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/jade-gailberger-morrison-government-stuck-in-reactionary-mode/news-story/5a54c2324d91b578caf35f92723c937d
    The aborted ‘Gladys for Warringah’ campaign demonstrated the Liberal Party’s contempt for propriety and morality in public life, writes Ian Kerridge.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-pm-the-premier-and-the-demoralisation-of-public-service/
    Abul Rizvi says that, whether running immigration or being PM, Morrison fiddles the books.
    https://johnmenadue.com/whether-running-immigration-or-being-pm-morrison-fiddles-the-books/
    The wait for COVID-19 test results by truckies and warehouse workers is fuelling empty supermarket shelves and supply chain pressures, and logistics operators say up to half their workforce is missing.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/supply-chain-crunch-as-up-to-half-of-truckies-isolating-20220105-p59m22
    Paul Sakkal tells us that Novak Djokovic’s entry into Australia was in limbo early this morning due to concerns over evidence supporting his vaccine exemption, as well as a potentially erroneous visa application. And the Victorian government claimed that it rejected a late-night request to sponsor the world No. 1’s visa hours before he landed in Melbourne about 11.30pm.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/visa-bungle-delays-novak-djokovic-s-entry-into-australia-20220105-p59m75.html
    Neil McMahon reckons Novax will get a hell of a heckling from the crowd if he does make it to the Open.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/novak-won-t-be-exempt-from-melbourne-s-fury-20220105-p59lxf.html
    The drop in skilled workers arriving in Australia has hit the economy, and it began six years before the Pandemic. Alan Austin reports on the decline of innovation and the jobs crisis.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/skilled-migrant-arrivals-hit-20-year-low-but-covid-is-not-the-reason-for-innovation-deflation/
    As our technological landscape continues to adapt to the pandemic, Paul Budde makes some predictions for the digital economy in 2022.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/how-the-government-could-shape-the-2022-digital-economy,15898
    While university jobs disappeared, Jobkeeper provided a windfall to wealthy private schools, explains Kaye Lee.
    https://theaimn.com/while-university-jobs-disappeared-jobkeeper-provided-a-windfall-to-wealthy-private-schools/
    The escalating boycott of Sydney Festival over a grant from the Israeli embassy has disrupted more than 20 shows and events, including cancellations, withdrawals from the program and cast changes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/art-and-design/escalating-boycott-over-israeli-embassy-funding-disrupts-23-shows-at-sydney-festival-20220105-p59lxz.html
    As America tears itself apart, its corporate giants continue to grow, with predatory takeovers and abusive market practice widely tolerated in a way that would have been unthinkable 50 years ago, writes the London Telegraph’s Jeremy Warner.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/apple-s-us3-trillion-milestone-highlights-corporate-usa-s-sickness-20220105-p59lx4.html
    Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday he wanted to “piss off” the unvaccinated – a slangy, cutting remark that prompted howls of condemnation from opposition rivals less than four months before the next presidential election.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/macron-sparks-outrage-with-cutting-jab-at-the-unvaccinated-20220106-p59m77.html
    Janan Ganesh opines that endemic civil disorder could be America’s future.
    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/endemic-civil-disorder-could-be-america-s-future-20220105-p59m08
    More than 40% of Americans still do not believe that Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud, according to a new Axios-Momentive poll. There is no hope!
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/05/america-biden-election-2020-poll-victory
    Almost all federal parliamentarians have now been educated in respectful workplace relationships and dealing with sexual harassment, but a public register designed to inform people of this is far from complete. Just one, Pauline Hanson, has told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age she would not be taking the education unit – enough to earn her a nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/a-kinder-parliament-politicians-complete-respectful-workplace-training-20211231-p59l2k.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Pater Broelman

    Mark David

    Andrew Dyson

    Glen Le Lievre

    John Spooner

    From the US









  22. Just sitting here having a flash back to my nursing days in the early 80’s in Victoria.
    Golden Staph was all the rage ,with staff member after staff member having to go off on sick leave ,leaving the hospital chief knobs scrambling to manage the crisis.
    Ward after ward getting filled with patients,barrier nursing (out the window )magically special curtains were employed that stopped golden staph in its tracks from going past them .LOL

    Government and hospital management solution……

    Mmmmmmm if we stop testing for it ,it just might disappear ……..
    And viola….. golden staph disappeared overnight….

    Now how to get rid of Covid ………. Any suggestions.

  23. ‘Socrates says:
    Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 7:19 am

    One more comment on the submarine saga, based on my holiday reading: there is an amazing disconnect in “expert” opinion pieces on nuclear submarines between the cost (everyone says it will be higher) and the choice of submarine (lots of the defense fanboys want us to get the latest greatest sub, the US Virginia Block 5).
    …’
    ===================================
    When China cuts out our iron ore exports we won’t be able to afford rowboats.

  24. Hamish soon to interview Colbeck on RN in his capacity as Minister for Sport re Novak. Will he take the opportunity to ask the minister, as Minister for Aged Care, about current problems in aged care homes?

  26. ‘Stephanie Ferrier
    @FerrierSteph
    ·
    28m
    Acting Sports Minister Jaala Pulford tells
    @abcnews
    that the state govt was approached 3 times by federal govt agencies to support Djokovic’s visa bid, but entry to Aust is “in spite of the fed govt’s best efforts to deny it, undeniably the responsibility of the federal govt”.

  27. SMH continues to be bias…. they changed the opening text again:

    Djokovic held at airport as visa, exemption papers queried
    The world no.1’s entry into Australia is in limbo due to concerns over evidence supporting his vaccine exemption. His father is claiming this is a ‘fight for the liberal world’.

    36 minutes ago

  29. There is no other word to describe the situation in Australia this morning, one I normally would not use.
    It’s a Morrison-created clusterfuck.

  30. Taylormade

    How is me quoting a tweet quoting Pulford (hint, it’s not Pulford’s tweet) equate with ‘we are being governed by tweet’?

    Pulford made the statement in the way pollies usually make such statements, in response to a question asked by the media.

    If you’re going to be consistent, next time Morrison makes a statement in response to a question, you need to reject that, too.

  31. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 7:55 am
    Are we being governed by tweet now.
    Pulford way out of her depth.
    It is what it is.
    —————————————-
    At least Victoria has a government
    Federal and NSW lib/nats are not attempting to govern at all

  32. Taylormade,

    Your daily Lib talking points arrived early this morning I see.

    Karen Andrews summed up the situation perfectly. The Feds are responsible for Borders and Visas.

  33. Hhaaaa. Taylormade no sometimes we get minister inspired $680,000 dollar

    Txt reports to the prime minister from Barnaby after doing all that hard work
    Not a piece of paper to show for it, now there’s value for money.


  34. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 7:55 am

    Are we being governed by tweet now.
    Pulford way out of her depth.
    It is what it is.

    Poor little didams. The incompetent federal government caught out again.
    If they wanted to give Novak Djokovic’s a visa they should have stepped up instead of trying to shaft the state Government.

  35. Having been involved in a similar (but not identical – fewer $m involved) case, I suspect that the problem for the Brat king of tennis is the ATAGI requirement for PCR proof of COVID within 6 months as the “medical” exemption. Unless Djokovic has been reinfected, his last PCR positive test was 23/06/21 – more than six months ago. Scummo’s stuffed this one too.

  36. Oliver Brown
    @oliverbrown_tel
    As Novak Djokovic’s detention at Melbourne Airport extends beyond six hours, his father Srdan tells media, via @sunriseon7: ‘They are holding my son captive. If they don’t release him in the next half an hour, we will fight them on the street.’

    Day started well, then?

  39. Has Matthew Guy and his deputy resigned yet

    They played politics and it backfired , because it was Federal government and border force responsibly to allow International sports/travellers into Australia

  41. lizzie @ #36 Thursday, January 6th, 2022 – 8:08 am

    Oliver Brown
    @oliverbrown_tel
    As Novak Djokovic’s detention at Melbourne Airport extends beyond six hours, his father Srdan tells media, via @sunriseon7: ‘They are holding my son captive. If they don’t release him in the next half an hour, we will fight them on the street.’

    Day started well, then?

    So, maybe Novak and Srdan shouldn’t have conspired to get Novak into Australia with a lie on his Visa application?

    However, earlier in the evening the Australian Border Force contacted the state government after learning of an issue with the visa submitted by Djokovic’s team.

    The 20-time grand slam winner was attempting to enter the country on a visa that does not permit medical exemptions for being unvaccinated, a source briefed on the matter told The Age and the Herald.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/visa-bungle-delays-novak-djokovic-s-entry-into-australia-20220105-p59m75.html

  43. Are we on the brink of War with Serbia?

    Chelsea Hetherington
    @chelsea_hetho
    Serbia’s president has posted on Instagram, saying he’s spoken to Djokovic:

    “Our authorities are taking all measures to stop the harassment of the best tennis player in the world in the shortest possible period… Serbia will fight for Novak Djokovic, for justice and truth.”

  45. Just watching Albo being interviewed and attempting to get a word in on News 24 breakfast whilst the rude, ignorant woman supposedly doing the interviewing keeps talking over him. I’m surprised that he has kept his cool as well as he has

  46. Bulldust @ #45 Thursday, January 6th, 2022 – 8:16 am

    Just watching Albo being interviewed and attempting to get a word in whilst the rude, ignorant woman supposedly doing the interviewing keeps talking over him. I’m surprised that he has kept his cool as well as he has

    Word must have come down from the top to try and take the shine off him and dust him up.

  47. Paul Sakkal
    @paulsakkal
    ·
    5m
    Breaking: Novak Djokovic’s visa has been cancelled. He’s been told to leave the country today, two sources confirmed to
    @theage. His Lawyers are in the process of appealing. He’s not demonstrated to Border Force sufficient evidence for his exemption

  48. Bulldust @ #45 Thursday, January 6th, 2022 – 8:16 am

    Just watching Albo being interviewed and attempting to get a word in whilst the rude, ignorant woman supposedly doing the interviewing keeps talking over him. I’m surprised that he has kept his cool as well as he has

    If it’s the interview I’m watching Albo has worn the tory lass down and he’s pretty much got a free run.

  49. Hmm, maybe ‘the best tennis player in the world’ shouldn’t have been a dick and taken up the cause of Anti Maskers and Anti Vaxxers?

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