This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Bloos
In other words, you don’t care. Thanks for making that clear.
Of course, you could redeem yourself by pointing out the pathway towards Labor winning and then phasing out coal. Would that involve lying? That is of course, if you care.
The far-right advocacy group Advance Australia has had a lot of ads up on Facebook lately, mostly anti-lockdown / open-the-borders stuff. Out of curiosity, I clicked on the comments on one today attacking the Palazcszuk government’s border policies. I would estimate that maybe 95% of people who bothered to write something strongly approved of the Queensland Government’s actions here.
I see Mr Shanks has issued a grovelling apology to Mr Barilaro.
Principles have a price apparently.
Asha – how many people are vaccine resisters? 2-3% maybe ? – More than enough to swing an election if they are in the right demographics.
Its been described as a low education, low information demographic. More Lindsay than Wentworth presumably?
Cud Chewer says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 11:14 am
Bloos
In other words, you don’t care. Thanks for making that clear.
Of course, you could redeem yourself by pointing out the pathway towards Labor winning and then phasing out coal. Would that involve lying? That is of course, if you care.
It’s not that I don’t care. And it does not involve any deception.
Politics is not about the self. It’s about the people. One’s own aspirations are going to be sublimated by the common result. This is democratic politics. What I want or don’t want is just completely beside the point. What the people want – that is the point of democracy.
Of course, it has been the case in my life that I only very rarely get what I want. I’m not used to it. I don’t evaluate life in those terms. I have learned to watch what others do and to try to learn from it.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 11:19 am
I see Mr Shanks has issued a grovelling apology to Mr Barilaro.
Principles have a price apparently.
_____________________________________
The victor is clear-cut in this one. And it aint bushfire bill’s mate.
In the race that is not a race we have moved ahead of the US and Germany and lag behind UK and France and China.
.
COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?country=AUS~NZL~GBR~USA~DEU~FRA~CHN
Singing Bloos @ #99 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 11:09 am
And there it is, folks … some people are perfectly ok with other people suffering or dying, or whole species going extinct, as long as Labor wins the election 🙁
lizzie @ #101 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 11:14 am
Election campaign. There’s no pre about it.
Wentworth is narcissist central, plenty of my body is my temple types who won’t take the jab. Try going there on a sunny weekend, FMD you’d think masks had never been invented.
Rex Douglas @ #105 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 11:19 am
Where did you see the grovelling apology?
This is the apology, read to court:
““Throughout 2020 and 2021 Mr Shanks posted many videos about John Barilaro the former deputy premier of NSW. Freedom of expression for political communication is important, but Mr Shanks accepts some of the videos he posted were offensive to Mr Barilaro,”
“Mr Shanks understands Mr Barilaro has been hurt, and apologises to him for that hurt.”
I sense no grovel at all.
Also:
“In a statement after the decision on Friday, Shanks’ lawyer, Mark Davis, said his client would “not be paying a cent in damages to Mr Barilaro”.
“Not one video will be taken down,” he said.
Such abject grovelling.
On Tim Smith, he doesn’t need to resign from parliament, no. There’s nothing on the books (as far as I know) saying you can’t be an MP if you have a DUI. It’s about what his leader, his party, and his electorate consider acceptable. Matthew Guy thinks Smith is now damaged enough to be a liability, and wants him gone at the next election. Some other senior Victorian Liberal either disagree with that assessment or just don’t care.
I happen to think Guy’s correct, and that anyone dumb enough to use their own political capital to save Smith risks becoming damaged goods themselves. That’s fine by me – I’m all for the Liberals making stupid political decisions and alienating their constituents – but I’m not the one making these decisions.
Lars mentioned a state pollie in NSW who is still in parliament despite a DUI with a similar blood alcohol reading. That may be true. But did this person get into an accident? Did they almost hit the side of a house where a kid was sleeping? Did they give a totally tone-deaf interview afterwards where they tried to blame it on the Premier? Did they have their own party leader – who is also a close friend and political ally – calling for their resignation.
Context matters here.
Very happy to report that I have just returned from the pharmacy after getting my first shot of Moderna. Took far longer than it should have (no thanks to ScoMo and the NSW Libs) but it is a relief to have the first one out of the way. Feeling pretty normal and my shoulder isn’t even sore like I thought it might be. Probably the least painful needle I’ve ever had actually, the pharmacist did a great job.
“The Greens have spent the last 500 years trying to provoke a split inside Labor on the environment and on coal in particular.”
***
The last 500 years?? Just a tiny bit of an exaggeration lol
I understand how Parliamentary privilege protects a person from being prosecuted based on them, but I don’t understand how it can be used by the person speaking them in an action against another person.
How is it possible to comment on what is said in our Parliaments when the words that provoked the comment are not admissible in court as part of your defence?
a r, the difference between the 1980s and now is those were CHILDHOOD vaccinations that were mandated (and not in all states I think?)
Now it is adults who are being affected by vaccine mandates and face losing their livelihoods if they don’t agree. And they vote.
On Tim Smith, he doesn’t need to resign from parliament, no. There’s nothing on the books (as far as I know) saying you can’t be an MP if you have a DUI.
_____________________________________
We know from experience that Tim Smith would have been at the front of the queue screaming that a Labor MP in the same circumstances should be hounded not only from the Parliament, but the State of Victoria.
On that basis alone he should go. I cannot stand hypocrites and moralistic ones are the worst.
Asha @ #114 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 8:35 am
What’s the maximum prison sentence for a DUI conviction?
And what other charges may he be facing related to the accident?
Do Vic MPs have the same rules regarding criminal convictions as federal MPs?
Apparently coal-burning was banned in London (under pain of death) in 1306.
https://deadfryday.wordpress.com/2011/09/27/history-and-the-environment-7-the-first-clean-air-regulations-in-1306/
Firefox at 11:38 am
For non aficionados of the Budgertariat Green vs Labor War and the assorted claims hurled to and fro it sure feels like it has been going on for 500 years 🙂
I had my second astra dose yesterday.
Worst thing about it was having to endure half an hour of Sunrise on the surgery TV before and after the jab.
People actually watch that stuff?
Downloading the vaccination certificate to my phone, getting a hard copy and linking it to my passport was seamless.
Shocking footage has emerged of West Ham fans singing anti-Semitic football chants at an Orthodox Jewish man as he takes his seat on a flight to Belgium. The supporters were understood to be on board a plane bound for Genk, where David Moyes’ side were playing in the Europa League on Thursday evening. However, as a man dressed in religious clothing makes his way down the aisle, a small crowd of passengers can be heard singing vile songs about Jewish men’s penises. The club tonight told MailOnline it was ‘appalled’ by the video and insisted any individuals identified would be banned. The men use the sick chant to reference Tottenham, one of West Ham’s fiercest rivals and traditionally home to a large Jewish community.
Smith could just have said something like:
‘I have a serious problem with alcohol. This problem ended up endangering other people. I take full responsibility for this. I apologize for all the damage I have caused and will make full restitution. I will not be defending any charges arising. I am entering a drug rehabilitation program. This is not just a personal problem but a problem for acceptable standards in Victorian governance, so from time to time I will let you know how I am progressing.’
Everyone of us who has done something stupid while under the influence of too much turps would have said something like, ‘Fair cop. Good luck with it.’
“I’m of the view that Tim Smith shouldn’t have to resign from parliament.
He made a mistake, a huge one and of course he is an arsehat but plenty of others have made similar mistakes and after a period of contrition, rehabilitation and remorse, got on with their lives and careers.”
Tim Smith has called on Labor Mp’s to resign in similar or even lesser circumstances. You can’t apply standards to others and then start crying when others apply those same standards against you.
Barney:
Good questions. I’m afraid I don’t know the answer to any of them.
Given that the option of remaining in parliament is even discussed as an option, you would have to assume that a DUI conviction (or whatever the appropriate term is in Victoria) is no barrier to state office.
Matthew Guy has now been shown to have very little authority.
We are led to believe the Vic federal Libs are the puppet masters of the state Libs.
Tim Smith’s actions have rendered the Vic Liberal Party utterly dysfunctional in the eyes of Vic voters.
I don’t think that it’s entirely the car crash DUI that is causing the push for Tim Smith to resign. It’s his general arrogance and stupidity in his attacks on Andrews. However, Frydenberg would be a fan of that as he is just as vicious.
Beorwar:
I agree.
The car-crash interviews afterwards did almost as much damage as the actual car crash.
I love to hate them but sometimes you have to set that aside when they do something that you might like them for:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/686597/carlton-reveals-gobsmacking-financial-response-to-doingitfordoc-campaign
Mind you, next season it will be back to ‘the filth’ as normal.
A steady (boiling frog) decline from a low base.
The worrying thing is – this is how many people get their ‘information’. It is Murdoch tabloids on screen. They started playing it (or Today, cont remember) at a local cafe. I stopped going.
ACT down to six new cases:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-05/act-records-six-new-covid-19-cases-one-death-man-40s/100597062
There is a narrative that you can’t catch Covid if you are vaccinated (possibly encouraged by pollies and media and the emphasis on vax figures), but it’s not so.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 11:19 am
You seem to have misread ( or didn’t read the outcome at all)
Xenophon Davis
@xenophondavis
Barilaro v Shanks. Clarifying some media accounts of the settlement. No damages are being paid whatsoever. We are properly paying the costs for the applications we made and lost on parliamentary privilege and a jury. Capped at 100k. No other legal costs are being paid to B.
Costs were only paid on the Parliamentary Privileges issue only!
Mavis/Shellbell/AE and others of PB legal fraternity
Barilaro settled defamation legal case against Friendlyjordies with a lame apology from Jordon Shanks by reading out an apology in the court that states that he apologised for the hurt he caused for those videos he posted. No damages.
https://amp-9news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/cc55325a-2a16-4c34-93a0-9d26d4329651?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16360734439338&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.9news.com.au%2Fnational%2Fjohn-barilaro-friendlyjordies-jordan-shanks-defamation-case-settlement%2Fcc55325a-2a16-4c34-93a0-9d26d4329651
True. But you have to say, watching covid numbers decline in Vic and NSW from before, that transmission is very much reduced. Which makes you wonder that if they could get rates up a little higher and keep some of the restrictions for long enough….
Sheesh.
Guardian.
Barilaro’s “win” against Shanks is in the same ballpark as Porter’s “win” against the ABC….
mikehilliard says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 11:31 am
Mikehilliard, please differentiate between the Bondi Instagram Cocaine crowd & those closer to Darlinghurst.
Loris @ #118 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 10:40 am
Yes, although the net effect today is that most adults have either already been subject to mandatory vaccination or else were fine with putting their (or everybody else’s) children through it.
For the ~40 and under cohort, it’s just one more mandatory vaccination after already enduring several. For the 40+ cohort, it’s time to step up and experience the same thing you were happy for all the children to go through. Fair is fair.
That’s fine. Politicians have to stop pandering to stupid just because it votes. Some principles are needed, or at least a minimum standard.
Has Rex Douglas gone all RW!?! Friendly Jordies hardly had to make a ‘grovelling apology’.
“Worst thing about it was having to endure half an hour of Sunrise on the surgery TV before and after the jab.
People actually watch that stuff?”
***
I sat outside the pharmacy for the 15 mins after I had it done and occupied myself by reading PB comments on my phone. My thoughts were somewhat similar to yours – people actually write that stuff? 😉
How many people kick up a stink about getting vaccinated before they go on vacation to Bali or Thailand I wonder? I’d say zero to none.
“ Mavis/Shellbell/AE and others of PB legal fraternity
Barilaro settled defamation legal case against Friendlyjordies with a lame apology from Jordon Shanks by reading out an apology in the court that states that he apologised for the hurt he caused for those videos he posted. No damages.”
I immediately went on FriendlyJordies website and ordered a Bruz Balls keychain and offending TShirt before they are withdrawn for sale.
The $100,000 legal costs – seemingly for the parliamentary privileges argument – is some very small coin for Shanks to fork out of his fighting fund. I’m pretty sure that Bruz faces a much much much larger legal bill to settle accounts with his team (unless he also has some secret benefactor alla Porter). I’d say that Shanks will probably not have to fork out anything, given the size of his crowd funded fighting fund, and the fact that his team were doing this on discounted fees apparently.
“Costs were only paid on the Parliamentary Privileges issue only!”
Davis has to tell a good story to the funders of the costs (members of the public who reached into their pocket). That money has gone without a reward.
Mr Shanks lost two substantial application the first of which was that the legal team, including Davis, had produced a faulty defence, PP was only one part of that, plus the optimistic jury point.
What is curious about fundraising for the court case is the absence of any need for Davis and others to account for their own costs. Presumably it was their idea to seeking funding from the public in the first place.
C@tmomma @ #146 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:26 am
Having just returned from Bali it wouldn’t motivate me to get vaccinated if I was so inclined.
The Kuta area is overdeveloped and with the exception of the range of restaurant options I found it had little to offer.
”
lizziesays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 12:19 pm
Sheesh.
Guardian.
Apparently, Prince Charles is a big fan of NSW’s infrastructure projects, according to Scott Morrison.
When I met with His Royal Highness Prince Charles, at Glasgow, one of the things he raised was the great urban projects that have been done here in partnership with the New South Wales Government, and made particular mention of the work that both premier Perrottet has been doing and Rob Stokes was doing as well, and I think that’s a great recognition of what is happening here in New South Wales and in particular in Sydney.
And so congratulations, Dom.
”
If anybody believes above words from Morrison sure are Putty in his hands.
It is a pleasant surprise that HH Prince of Wales is so knowledgeable about NSW infrastructure projects built by Dom P and Rob Stokes. I thought there was woman Premier in NSW till September 30 of this year who was gold standard as per Morrison. I am bitterly disappointed that HH Prince did not mention her. 🙂