Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. “Hmm.. its getting there.. but “Clive wants to kill you” would be my choice.. ”

    Would certainly make a lot of the oldies like my mum feel like they were being heard. She has been saying that about Clive for months, and that Scomo want to help him.. 🙂

  2. Some of you may have picked up that I do energy system modeling in my professional work.

    The document released earlier today is closer to a list of input assumptions than to a modeling exercise. And that is the most charitable thing I can say about it.

  3. One last thing tonight.

    The hackers … lived undetected for nine months inside one of Queensland’s biggest water entities

    Sunwater, which manages 19 dams and delivers about 40 per cent of Queensland’s commercial-use water, confirmed it was the organisation in question.

    According to the report the hackers used Sunwater’s systems to boost a YouTube video. I’ve only had very limited exposure to dam control systems (SCADA, in Israel and the USA) but I know you can do a lot of harm when you start messing about with dams. The news report doesn’t go there.

  4. Dandy

    Yes I’ve heard a couple of experts stressing whilst trying to avoid saying its a fraud, on air.

    Apparently the “do nothing” case ignores all the good things that would naturally occur, but the “this is our PLAN” case chooses to include all of those good things that would happen anyhow.

    There needs to be a new series of Utopia 🙂

  5. imacca

    My mum was brought up in a generation where ladies were lady like. But I’ve heard her use some colourful language when describing Clive and Scomo.

  6. There needs to be a new series of Utopia

    Not the same thing, but the UK version is pretty dark:

    There’s a US remake (of course there is…); I haven’t seen it.

    Utopia and the power of the conspiracy thriller

    Amazon’s new show Utopia tells the story of a plot to depopulate the earth with a pandemic. It’s just the latest paranoid drama to offer perverse comfort, writes David Jesudason.

  7. The document released earlier today is closer to a list of input assumptions than to a modeling exercise. And that is the most charitable thing I can say about it.

    100 pages seems a lot for a pamphlet.

  8. As COP26 winds up the backsliding has begun. All the talk about limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees is just that, all talk. The world, particularly the global south, will be lucky if the increase is restricted to less than 3 degrees. Fixing the problem is not our job. It’s somebody else’s.


  9. If nothing else, the massive stuff up of the NBN should’ve seen this lot turfed years ago.

    Critical revelations this week confirmed that the Abbott government’s changes to the national broadband network have been an expensive disaster. They also demonstrated the extent to which the company building the network, NBN Co, has consistently hidden the real cost of the project, which has failed to meet original budget predictions.

    The current minister, Paul Fletcher, has effectively conceded his predecessors’ mistakes and is about to start fixing the problems they created. But this will add billions of dollars to an already massive blowout in costs.

    Meanwhile, millions of Australians struggle with slow and unreliable internet connections. It wasn’t supposed to be like this and the mess could have been cleaned up years ago.

    When the Coalition announced its changes to the NBN it claimed a build cost of $29 billion for its “cheaper, faster” version. However, cost increases have seen the total exceed $50 billion.

    Citing dubious commercial-in-confidence issues, NBN Co has consistently refused to release details on its internal costs. Some of those details were finally outlined in a report in Guardian Australia this week.

    In 2013, NBN Co estimated the cost of using copper wires instead of fibre would be $600 to $650 per premises and using pay TV (HFC) cables would cost between $800 and $850 per premises. The average for copper is actually $2330 and HFC is $2752.

  10. Scotty thinks he all of sudden cares about Climate Change, all the media are like “we back Scotty”.

    Ignoring the lies of Coalition Party that kicked out Labor Party for introducing Carbon Price.

    “We will reduce emissions on our side of the line but without putting a wrecking ball through the Australian economy”

    He already told a lie.

    Over bushfires
    Over economy.
    Over covid
    Over nationals and their water theft

    ‘never told a lie my ass’.

  11. Dandy Murray @ #952 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 12:29 am

    Some of you may have picked up that I do energy system modeling in my professional work.

    The document released earlier today is closer to a list of input assumptions than to a modeling exercise. And that is the most charitable thing I can say about it.

    As a professional, full time modeller, I completely agree. It is nothing like a model and, as an aid to informed decision making, it is useless.

  12. It always baffles me how Latika Bourke maintains her comfy sinecure in the UK, doing sweet FA, in this post rationalised media landscape.

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