Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 20
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  1. Mavis says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:41 pm
    __________________________
    Slippery shithouse rat with gold tooth – but that is a type amongst successful politicians.

  2. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:45 pm

    Mavis says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:41 pm
    __________________________
    Slippery shithouse rat with gold tooth – but that is a type amongst successful politicians.
    ________
    Classic Kick Down Kiss Up operator for sure.

  3. Cud Chewer (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 7:32 pm
    Comment #896
    In Christensen’s electorate, you’ve also got to counter this shit.

    Regional QLD is struggling with Vax rates. This is why. A mate just sent me this from outside Proserpine. In the seat of Dawson. I’m not sure the the LNP will hold this with Christensens retirement. UAP are targeting the uneducated pic.twitter.com/mG04dGvZWH— Tom the Whistleblower (@BlowingTom) November 12, 2021

    All I can come up with is a similar style road sign.

  5. Compare and contrast the Labor governments:

    Dan Andrews requires all authorised workers to be vaccinated: 90% + vaccination

    Ana Palaschuk does nothing, 70% vaccination?

  8. Lars Von Trier:

    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:45 pm

    [‘Slippery shithouse rat with gold tooth – but that is a type amongst successful politicians.’]

    Most likely but I think Morrison’s terminal, the nellies on the backbench suffering terminal anxiety. To think that a man who thinks he’ll be elevated to Heaven via “Rapture” is the prime minister of this land is so counter-intuitive that it belies belief.

  9. Mavis says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:15 pm
    ________________________
    If that were true – Albo would have already kissed hands with Rupert at the Californian Winery.

  11. Although I think NewsCorp is getting close to or past the final orders stage of the campaign. Remember Turnbull was removed what 6 months before the last election.

    It seems ScoMo has won the invisible primary.

  12. Covid has infected about 48 million Americans (about 1/7) and killed about 780,000 (about 1/420). So pretty much every family affected, every school, every workplace. Maybe about one third to one half of Americans have had someone in their wider circle – extended family, work, friend, acquaintances – die of the disease.

    Even so, profits go on. The elites can hide from the Virus if they need to.

    This would have been Australia if Clive and like-minded people got their way.

  14. Info for anyone wanting to visit Qld.

    https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/public-health-directions
    Lots to read.
    * Business and trading: businesses and workers
    * Recreation, travel and borders: getting in, getting out, quarantine, …
    * Public health and safety: air crew, public officials, vaccine requirements, more…
    * Visitor restrictions: hospitals, aged care, …
    * Medical directions: serology, hydrochloroquine

    Palaszczuk has done well by us.

  16. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:22 pm

    Although I think NewsCorp is getting close to or past the final orders stage of the campaign. Remember Turnbull was removed what 6 months before the last election.
    _______________________
    They are a much reduced influence these days surely? Shouldn’t cause the fear they did in the old days.

  17. Lars Von Trier:

    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:18 pm

    [‘If that were true – Albo would have already kissed hands with Rupert at the Californian Winery.’]

    Rudd was entertained by Murdoch. And although his dear mother lived to 150, Rupert, I’m sure, would be contemplating his “early” death. I’m not sure that old pa Murdoch has the power he once had – witness for example the last three Queensland elections.

  18. nath says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:38 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:22 pm

    Although I think NewsCorp is getting close to or past the final orders stage of the campaign. Remember Turnbull was removed what 6 months before the last election.
    _______________________
    They are a much reduced influence these days surely? Shouldn’t cause the fear they did in the old days.
    ________________________
    Littlefinger once thought this way too!

  19. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:43 pm

    nath says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:38 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:22 pm

    Although I think NewsCorp is getting close to or past the final orders stage of the campaign. Remember Turnbull was removed what 6 months before the last election.
    _______________________
    They are a much reduced influence these days surely? Shouldn’t cause the fear they did in the old days.
    ________________________
    Littlefinger once thought this way too!
    _________________
    True. But I suspect that Shorten was possibly right about it being not worth it bothering with him. That he also lost was unrelated.

    Who reads his papers any more? Old people and illiterates. The circulation is a fraction of what it was.

    But then again, it might be worth meeting with him and pretending to play ball in the off chance they don’t go too hard, then smacking the old reprobate after the election.

  21. nath says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:47 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:43 pm

    nath says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:38 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:22 pm

    Although I think NewsCorp is getting close to or past the final orders stage of the campaign. Remember Turnbull was removed what 6 months before the last election.
    _______________________
    They are a much reduced influence these days surely? Shouldn’t cause the fear they did in the old days.
    ________________________
    Littlefinger once thought this way too!
    _________________
    True. But I suspect that Shorten was possibly right about it being not worth it bothering with him. That he also lost was unrelated.

    Who reads his papers any more? Old people and illiterates. The circulation is a fraction of what it was.

    But then again, it might be worth meeting with him and pretending to play ball in the off chance they don’t go too hard, then smacking the old reprobate after the election.
    __________________
    Paris was worth a mass as a French king who converted to gain the Crown famously said.

  22. If I was Labor I’d be thinking of ways to make life difficult to them. This Sky arrangement with regional free to airs. I’d be starting there. Then I’d start squeezing elsewhere, starting with the rest of Foxtel. Slap some onerous local content rules on them for starters.

  23. Late Riser at 9:33 pm

    Mavis @ #912 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 8:28 pm

    Morrison’s equilvalancene is Canadia’s Harper.

    “Canadia”. You made me smile, hopefully that was your intention. Thanks.

    I had a boss who was Canadian and ‘Canadia’ was a running joke at work. Caused a few funny looks outside of work as saying ‘Canadia’ instead of Canada had become an entrenched habit, one that lingered well after I left 🙂

  24. nath says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 9:50 pm
    If I was Labor I’d be thinking of ways to make life difficult to them. This Sky arrangement with regional free to airs. I’d be starting there. Then I’d start squeezing elsewhere, starting with the rest of Foxtel. Slap some onerous local content rules on them for starters.
    ____________________________________
    But of course. Look at Blair he kissed hands and ultimately was rumoured to have been the cause of the Wendi Deng divorce.

  25. poroti
    Sounds similar. It was a Canadian company I worked for in the US, and “Canadia” was the gentle way of letting their expats know that they were tolerated.

  27. It took a ‘rebel alliance’ in the UK to hurt Murdoch over the News of the World disgrace. Lawsuits funded by that multi millionaire Mosley fella and money to investigate his journalists. Still only wounded him over there. He got his own back with Brexit.

  29. Oh no!

    [‘Vaccine rollout

    NSW

    90.6% fully vaccinated; 94.1% first dose

    National

    82.4% fully vaccinated; 90.1% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over’] – SMH.

  34. Lars re article 16

    The UK Government are certainly making noises pointing in that direction; but I have seen this movie before where the UK Government talks the talk, but the ending is very anti climactic. So if I had to put money on it, I doubt they will invoke article 16. I’d be very happy to be proven wrong though.

    In other Northern Ireland related news, a small Unionist party, the PUP, have withdrawn their support for the Good Friday Agreement. Though they are small, their move is not completely insignificant. First, they have historic ties to the paramilitary the UVF. But second and more importantly, it will put further pressure on the DUP from hard liners. There is some evidence they are leaking support to the TUV, a small, hard line anti agreement Unionist party. Whatever happens, I see another long period with no Stormont coming, likely both sides of next year’s election.

  35. Scott’s Net Zero Emissions Plan has been labelled a fraud, but calling it a lie might reinforce Scott’s LIAR brand and keep him mired in his current problems a bit longer.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9eJrMpH6z8
    Morrison’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 is a FraudLie
    ??
    In politics when you’re explaining you’re losing, and the same goes for defending.

  36. Those photos of Morrison. He used to be in amateur musicals I think. Those exaggerated facial expressions are straight out of the bad acting playbook.

  40. It occurs to me that Morrison’s claim to have never told a lie in public life could be very damaging to him.

    Disengaged and low-information voters tend to think that all politicians lie – so for them, Morrison’s attempt to deny the undeniable would be a particularly egregious form of dishonesty – tantamount to calling them idiots.

    This government has asked voters to excuse an awful lot over the last 8 years: corrupting cronyist rent-seeking, profound misogyny, climate denialism, and worst of all, a rampant anti-intellectual hatred of objective truth, good public policy, and accountability.

    Unfortunately for the left, by and large the public has tolerated it, because in the public’s view this is how politicians behave.

    But now Morrison thinks the voters are so gulliable they’ll accept anything he says, even when what he is saying runs contrary to deeply held received wisdom about politicians and their behaviour. This is very dangerous ground for him.

    If Labor can make the next election about Morrison and his fundamental dishonesty, they’ve got a good chance.

  41. JimmyD

    A simple billboard. Morrison’s smirking mug and the caption “I never told a lie”.

    I’d happily contribute to that.

  43. A list of Morrison’s endless empty promises should damage him. “Juliar” hurt Gillard. Framing Morrison’s failures as lies, as well as casting doubt on all announcements from now until the election, might hurt him fatally. Morrison seems to be on the defensive at the moment. So he knows it too.

  44. Cud – the ads practically write themselves.

    Asha – you watch, it’s only a matter of time before Morrison will deny denying his denying, and he’ll insist he never lied about lying.

  47. Here comes the apologists for Morrison from the Oz:

    Modelling shows real cost of no net zero
    Businesses and households would have faced interest rate hikes of up to 1.5 per cent if the government had failed to adopt net zero emissions by 2050, modelling for the Glasgow climate package shows.

  49. Morrison may regret not going in 2021.

    (with a fart in Monty Python’s general direction)

    Bravely bold Sir Scotty, rode forth from Canberra.
    He was not afraid to die, O Brave Sir Scotty.
    He was not at all afraid to be killed in nasty ways.
    Brave, brave, brave, brave Sir Scotty!
    He was not in the least bit scared to be mashed into a pulp,
    Or to have his eyes gouged out, and his elbows broken.
    To have his kneecaps split, and his body burned away,
    And his limbs all hacked and mangled, brave Sir Scotty!
    His head smashed in and his heart cut out,
    And his liver removed and his bowels unplugged,
    And his nostrils raped and his bottom burned off,
    And his …

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