The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.
Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.
Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.
The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.
There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.
There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.
970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”
Why didn’t Sarah Hanson-Young get a boat to Glasgow!
So it seems as though Morrison’s twin snafus in Rome and Glasgow have filtered through to the poll numbers if the drops in national reputation, who is best to handle national security and maintaining international relations are any guide.
These are, of course, areas that the Liberals believe are their strong suits.
Although, going on the past few days efforts, Morrison thinks that making gnocchi, sitting in a barber’s chair and announcing car policy outside the wrong car plant, are now his strong suits. 😐
Niki Savva appears to have noticed Phil Coorey’s stenographic efforts:
Niki Savva describes Morrison perfectly! I can no longer watch or listen to him, and wonder how long it’s going to be before he generally becomes regarded as a mere poser and flake.
I don’t think Niki Savva is on Team Morrison. 😀
Mate … it’s completely consistent with their belief that AGW isn’t a thing. You do know their acknowledgement in a forum like COP was dragged out of them kicking and screaming, is purely lip service, and was only made at all because they’re being told there might be money, trade and investment involved.
They say ‘the last refuge of a scoundrel is nationalism’, well if you employed by Murdoch to channel his view of the world, the goto refuge is identity politics. Pour scorn on anyone not like the demented US plutocrat..
Credlin’ s piece in the SmearStralian today is all over the place, an excerpt..
‘This shift in the political battle from economics to culture has been much easier for Labor to navigate. Unlike the Liberals, Labor’s fundamental concern has always been justice rather than prosperity. Identity politics demands an absolutism that is easy for Labor. By contrast, the Liberals’ belief in the individual and self-reliance butts up against a movement that now prioritises victimhood and grievance over community and resilience.’
Of course we are!
The Right are the biggest players of identity politics. Every thing they say and write on identity politics is, in fact, them playing identity politics.
Most definitely not! Also, apparently she isn’t a fan of Credlin.
The Shire Liar… no paddle no canoe ….
Glasgow: China and the United States have made a shock joint statement at the Glasgow climate talks, declaring climate change to be an existential crisis demanding co-operation between the superpowers.
Addressing a press conference at the COP26 summit, Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua unveiled a joint declaration designed to “enhance climate action in the 2020s” and said the two nations were determined to tackle global warming with “concrete and pragmatic” co-operation.
Maybe if BoJo hadn’t endorsed Australia’s position he would have a leg to stand on. You can’t give special dispensation to your mates and then expect everyone else to go along with your pretence that you’re negotiating in good faith. Such hypocrisy only undermines your own credibility.
Surely if Australia’s offering is as great as BoJo has claimed, then that’s all anyone else needs to bring to the table. If a “she’ll be right, someone else will take care of it” attitude is good enough for Australia, then isn’t it good enough for everyone else?
And this is exactly the best example yet of the way Joe Biden and John Kerry have operated wrt COP26. So, while it looked like, due to the leaders of China and Russia not attending COP26, that it would be classed as a failure, and countries like Australia felt confident in their recalcitrance, this joint announcement has been made today.
China and the US must have blindsided Boris Johnson as well.
Now, if China can keep doing good things I might change my opinion about them. 😉
‘free childcare’ provided by the Public School System that the NSW DoE has been trying to prevent the occurrence of Covid in schools being published (emails sent to schools by the department).
If there is a shaky foundation to our ‘living with Covid ‘ strategy it will be schools.
I’m sure someone here will make sure to say to you (wtte) that actions speak louder than words :P.
The media and the repubs in the USA spend each and every day writing off Biden.
When all is said and done, he will feature much like FDR did with the new deal.
Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 5:49 am
Niki Savva describes Morrison perfectly! I can no longer watch or listen to him, and wonder how long it’s going to be before he generally becomes regarded as a mere poser and flake.
Morrison is roughly my vintage. “Poser” was one of the most telling epithets employed when calling out another kid back in the 1970s, and in this case, it’s on point. A character reading which deserves to get some traction.
“ Despite what some of his detractors may say, he is not an apologist for Chinese authoritarianism but a cold-eyed realist about Chinese power and how it can be incorporated into a global political order.
Simply: Chinese engagement but not Chinese dominance.
This is a time for big thinkers and Paul Keating is one of them. His Press Club appearance raises many questions but right now our world is short of answers.”
On all current metrics, Morrison and co should be voted out at next election. Thank goodness!
Meanwhile here in Victoria, the enablers are continuing to whip up a frenzy for their useful
Idiots to rant and rave about a pandemic bill which only puts Victoria more in line with other states.
There is a very real threat to to the safety of elected officials and their staff.
The fiberals, palmer and co together with the media, need to cease and desist.
Victoria @ #NaN Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 7:35 am
Exactly. It was said by an American political observer yesterday that, with his bipartisan US Infrastructure deal, Joe Biden as President has achieved what no other President for over 40 years has been able to. Despite them all trying to.
Victoria @ #NaN Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 7:39 am
And yet I can still see them getting re-elected.
Will #Snotty’s attempts to make Australians hate and fear #China survive this extraordinary #ClimateCrisis collaboration?
Looks like Biden and Xi Jinping have snookered the #LiarFromTheShire.
(And f@@k, this is fantastic.)
I was very confident that they would win last election.
This time, I believe enough voters are sick and tired of this mob.
What those people say has real world consequences. I just read this story in The Age:
which reported on an ICU Ward filled with COVID-19 patients. 9/10 are unvaccinated, but the saddest site of all is unvaccinated pregnant women and this just made my heart break to read of it:
Yep. And all the talk of the midterms being a whitewash for the dems.
I know it is one year away, but I see the dems increasing their majority.
It seems there may be some hope. From William’s commentary at the top of the thread …
Vote for policies, not parties. Vote independent.
Victoria @ #NaN Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 7:47 am
Trump is trying to get the Republicans to disendorse anyone who voted for the Infrastructure package before the Mid Terms. He knows how popular it will be though. He also must be aware of the American tradition of politicians changing parties. This could also contribute to more Dems!
I have an extended family member who is on the coal face of this pandemic.
She has provided me with much insight into this pandemic.
There are People not wanting to be vaccinated because they dont believe covid is dangerous or even real. Even if they get it, they dont accept it.
The most baffling part is that some of these people are generally quite intelligent.
It continues to baffle me.
There are some evil people out there and they have no qualms about manipulating others.
Victoria @ #25 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 7:44 am
Yes, this is good news. Cue the PB sinophobic war-mongers …
Facebook has a lot to bloody answer for.
NEW CNN Polling on Facebook:
Roughly half of Americans, 49%, say they know someone who they think was persuaded to believe in a conspiracy theory because of content on Facebook, @jennagiesta @aedwardslevy report
Our workplace has a mandatory vaccination policy. Anyone not double vaxxed can’t return to work and is stood down. There have been staff who have resigned rather than get vaccinated, and others who are stood down on unpaid leave rather than be vaccinated.
Freedom of the Press?
The PMO polices journalists & sends them instructions via text messages.
Dutton’s staff used to ring journalists and threaten them for reporting on human rights abuses in his detention regime.
I get that. But why would seemingly intelligent people be so easily manipulated.
The longer this pandemic goes, the less patience I have for these people.
I have also cut people out of my life who espouse this crapola.
I am done with them.
Morning all. The poll suggests the number of Australians who have seen through Morrison is finally growing. Once you understand the lies and the liar, I dould many will return to voting for him.
And there are a LOT of lies. This article chronicles just the climate change lies in recent days. The EV policy was accompanied by a blizzard of BS from Taylor and Morrison. Taylor’s comments on CCS are rubbish.
A group of older women are taking on Andrew Laming.
Yep. It is not uncommon at all.
I personally know people who have resigned from their jobs for this very reason.
I get general vaccine hesitancy.
Some people do have very adverse reactions to them.
But this doesnt explain why many have refused to do what will help all of society get out of this pandemic.
“I get that. But why would seemingly intelligent people be so easily manipulated.”
In politics, as in financial marketing, the most successful lies are the ones that tell the listener what they want to hear. Finance salesmen play on listeners’ greed. Politicians play on listeners’ fears.
Facebook helps delivery by identifying and targeting readers insecurities. They don’t engage people’s logical brain, focusing on their emotions.
I understand that too.
Ultimately though. No one is liking this pandemic.
People are over it.
I know I am.
Doing my best to keep my elderly father safe has been exhausting.
Meanwhile, my mother who has been in care for months now, has been in lockdown due to an outbreak in her facility.
This facility was so strict with respect to people visiting, that I have not been able to see her since she went in.
As I said, it has been exhausting.
Thankfully science is doing its thing to get us to a better place. Re vaccines and medications.
Why then, are people being so obstinate. It will only serve to make this pandemic last longer than it needs to.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Niki Savva gives us “Our walking, talking, weaving, wedging Prime Minister”.
Rob Harris reckons Morrison has shown his hand on what his election tactic will be, and he says Albanese has some work to do to overcome it.
China and the United States have made a shock joint statement at the Glasgow climate talks, declaring climate change to be an existential crisis demanding co-operation between the superpowers.
Meanwhile, Australia has joined a coalition of countries working to water down a key proposal from the Glasgow climate summit which would pressure the Morrison government to overturn its opposition to a more ambitious 2030 emissions reductions target.
Nick O’Malley and Miki Perkins tell us that Australia is one of a handful of countries that will be urged to set a new and more ambitious 2030 emissions reductions target by next November under a draft decision paper released at the COP26 climate change summit. The document, which works as a blueprint for final negotiations over the next few days, also calls on countries to accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels.
Scott Morrison could restore Australia’s climate reputation as a lifter rather than a leaner with five steps, argues Tristan Edis.
Labor is considering backing Scott Morrison’s plans to further invest in the unproven carbon capture and storage technology, potentially blunting a Coalition wedge as the Opposition continues to hammer the government on “lies” about electric vehicles, writes Josh Butler.
Transport researcher, Lachlan Fox, argues that Morrison’s electric car policy misses the price point. He says that, instead of pouring money into electric vehicle charging stations, Morrison should focus on the basics first – and that means bringing more affordable electric cars to Australian consumers.
Graham Redfearn examines how Angus Taylor’s carbon capture and storage claims stack up.
Coal baron and Liberal donor Trevor St Baker is ripe for Scott Morrison’s electric vehicles (EVs) subsidies. Callum Foote reports on the commendable materialisation of a Coalition climate action technology.
During his time as the Federal Member for Deakin, Michael Sukkar has engaged in behaviour fitting with the Liberal Party’s lack of integrity, writes Kieran Simpson.
If social media is anything to go by, the 2022 federal election campaign will be overwhelmingly negative with disputed claims about Medicare and tax policy featuring in early major party ads, say Paul Karp and Nick Evershed.
“How do we beat the stackers and the bag men?”, asks John Warhurst. He says that factions will not go away, because they are an escalator for aspirants to elected office and leadership positions, and this behaviour is learned by young electoral officers and ministerial staff, and then reproduced when they themselves rise to senior positions of power and authority.
And Alan Kohler says branch stacking is a bargain – so why wouldn’t it go on?
For the masochists out there, here’s Peta Credlin going full culture warrior.
Lies and questionable political tactics have made the comparison between Scott Morrison and Donald Trump more valid than ever, writes Paul Begley.
Paul Sakkal and Annika Smethurst report that the cooling of relations between Matthew Guy and Tim Smith comes as James Newbury – another of Mr Guy’s backers – faces a preselection challenge from two Liberal women.
Alexandra Smith writes that Matt Kean represents the youthful new face of the NSW government.
The Coalition’s voter ID bill may discourage people from voting and “no evidence” has been provided regarding how it could prevent fraud, a parliamentary committee has warned. The joint committee on human rights, chaired by Nationals MP Anne Webster, issued the warning in a report on Wednesday. It called on the special minister of state, Ben Morton, to explain how the bill would be effective and its impact on vulnerable groups.
Homebuyers could be competing at property auctions against organised criminal gangs using Australia to launder their ill-gotten gains, according to evidence from law enforcement agencies at a federal inquiry.
Elizabeth Knight writes about our worker drought where job ads are soaring but no one’s applying.
Australian jobs are rebounding nicely from lockdowns, but there is still a way to go, explains Greg Jericho.
The SMH editorial is hopeful that the NSW inquiry into gay hate murders can bring closure and justice.
Australia’s intelligence community has conceded it is breaching laws governing how some of the nation’s most important historical documents are stored, revealing more than 10 kilometres of classified documents are gathering dust and may never be made public.
Rodd Staples, who was fired without cause last year, has been summoned to appear at an inquiry into NSW’s controversial $40 billion rail corporation. Matt O’Sullivan and Adele Ferguson continue their coverage of the inquiry.
According to Luke Henriques-Gomes, the former chairman of the National Disability Insurance Agency has warned proposed government changes to the NDIS could give the agency boss unprecedented powers to cut funding packages.
NSW Transport Minister Rob Stokes says the state government expects the Spanish manufacturer of Sydney’s cracked inner west trams to pay for their rectification. Good luck with that, Rob, given the cause has not yet been established, let alone whose responsibility it is!
Zoe Samios writes that Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg has warned under-fire social network Facebook it could be the first digital platform the federal government legally forces to strike commercial deals with news outlets if it continues to ignore requests from smaller publishers.
It’s time for the National Archives to release all letters between the Queen and our governors-general as we move towards becoming a republic, urges Jenny Hocking.
Real estate agents, accountants and lawyers are among the white-collar “gatekeepers” helping organised criminals launder hundreds of millions of dollars in and out of Australia, the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) has warned.
SA police have been investigating the suicide of the woman who accused Christian Porter of rape – and now they’re nearly finished.
Sarah Martin writes that equality advocates are mobilising against the Coalition’s revived religious discrimination bill and urging changes to ensure minority groups are not harmed by the legislation.
Australia needs better working conditions, not shaming, for Pacific Islander farm workers, opines Victoria Stead.
Paul Keating has said Taiwan is not a vital Australian interest and has urged the nation to avoid being drawn into any military engagement with China over the island, reports Anthony Galloway.
Tony Wright tells us about Keating’s appearance at the NPC yesterday.
Greg Sheridan says that Paul Keating was dead wrong on China and Japan, but half right on subs.
More than ever, Australia is a suitable piece of real estate for the US espionage and war-gaming. Here is a detailed analysis by Richard Tanter.
John Kehoe reports that property company Lendlease has quietly disclosed for the first time that it is being audited by the Australian Taxation Office over the partial sale of its retirement village business, which Aware Super and Dutch fund APG bought into.
Australia has a predilection for jailing vulnerable citizens, but tough penalties are not working. The disadvantaged continue to be repressed, coerced and stigmatised, posits Jane Anderson.
The Fed’s latest financial stability report cites the implosion of China’s property development sector as a potential catalyst for financial instability in the US, explains Stphen Bartholomeusz.
Andrew Podger argues that journalism needs more than better protection, it needs better standards.
China has built up a stockpile of dollars unseen since the days when the “Asian savings glut”. Working out exactly where it is being funnelled is proving to be a challenge, writes Bloomberg’s Edna Curran.
US prosecutors are seeking the stiffest punishments yet for participants in the deadly 6 January insurrection at the US Capitol by extremist supporters of Donald Trump, urging judges to make an example out of a man filmed punching a police officer and another who stormed the Senate chamber wearing a horned headdress.
From the US
The announcement of the “ shock” agreement between America and China in Glasgow would be very satisfying for Albanese.
Day after day in every interview journos and other commentators at every opportunity have pressured labor to release its climate policy and have demanded to know why labor thought it was necessary to wait until the end of the conference.
“ We want your policy now ! “ the MSM screamed.
“ Glasgow is done and dusted “ they bleated.
The MSM have been champing at the bit for the details of the labor policy so they could rip it apart. The demand for Red meat from the CPG pack.
Even some posters here have gone on and on about labor having no policy and there was no reason to wait etc etc etc.
Well, given the above announcement and the push for higher 2030 targets at the conference it would now be very clear that labor was correct to hold back.
the rest 0
This is a comment I just made to Rob Harris’ article:
‘ I think it would benefit Labor to pose the question, ‘Who do you trust?’ As there is plentiful evidence that you can’t trust Scott Morrison. This Prime Minister will say one thing, and do another. He will say something at any one time and then, when questioned about it after he has done a backflip on a previous, hand-on-heart, statement, put so much spin on the previous statement to get out of admitting that he lied then, that people will be left feeling dizzy.
Not to mention the subterfuge that IS this government’s policies in practice. Hounding Robodebt victims to death but giving away billions of taxpayer dollars to companies who didn’t need or deserve it via JobKeeper.
I just hope that the electorate isn’t bamboozled by the ‘highly disciplined’ election campaigner that is Scott Morrison and his perennial parade of photo ops and empty announcements. At this critical juncture in national and international politics we need a leader who isn’t just all smirk and mirrors.’
lizzie @ #34 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 7:56 am
‘Morrison is going to position himself and the Liberals as the climate action party’
You don’t say.
And just like phone scammers, many voters will fall for it.
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 6:45 am
Although, going on the past few days efforts, Morrison thinks that making gnocchi, sitting in a barber’s chair and announcing car policy outside the wrong car plant, are now his strong suits.
Much appreciation BK!!
Hmmm…. MOE aside, three things draw attention:
Morrison’s ratings collapse.
Two point drop for the Greens.
Two point rise for, presumably, the UAP.
The first and third are consistent with Morrison’s self-trashing and with the power of Clive’s money.
The Greens’ drop during COP26 is, IMO, counterintuitive. Perhaps Morrison has more climate cred than Bandt?