Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Keneally is a former candidate for Bennelong and has an actual connection for the electorate – she should leap at the chance to give Labor the majority to form government.

    Please the line about tu le moving into the electorate is crap and everybody knows it.

    Perhaps the real reasons for denying tu Le are revealed in the choice comments of some on here.

  2. I’d guess that Dan Andrews is a friend of the Newton family, why he was asked to give a eulogy today?
    Graham Kennedy was always a Labor voter by the way, I guess that went for Bert too?

  3. Where you are in Robertson, far greater prospect, your new Labor candidate, Dr Gordon Reid, very impressive, what I’ve seen of him, I think he’ll give Lucy Wicks a run for her money.

    Lucy Wicks is a lump but a smart one who has some very sleazy characters to do her dirty work for her while she smiles and waves and gets her photo taken for the local paper.

    We have already had some success with getting her to walk back the announcement on gas and oil drilling off the Central Coast, otherwise known as PEP11. She, and Morrison, are now saying they’ve never supported it (well, at least until after the election).

    I was pleased to be the first person Dr Reid asked to sign and support his nomination because I told his grandmum (one of our local Indigenous Aunties), to encourage him to stand after she told us about him at an FEC meeting pre-COVID19. Little did I know how good looking, as well as smart with his heart in the right place he was. We just have to defeat the forces of evil now. They are well-resourced and local business give plenty of free publicity to Lucy Wicks at election time. It’s an uphill battle, to be sure, but with Dr Reid we have our best chance for a very long time. 🙂

  4. Breaking News.
    Today Morrison ate a samosa.

    Angus Taylor MP
    @AngusTaylorMP
    ·
    56m
    Today the PM @ScottMorrisonMP and I visited Sabrini Foods in Melbourne to see how some of their delicious Indian food products are made.

  5. The Chronicles of Bubsy – “THAT’S my bird!” Edition

    Just a note, but today, a mere 30 minutes ago, Bubsy worked out how to open the hatch on his cage, and close it behind himself.

    Without doubt, this is the smartest bird in Snoozeville.

    If you disagree… nominate one smarter.


  6. Bushfire Billsays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 4:24 pm
    I don’t wish to speak ill of the dead and so I won’t.

    ……………………
    ……………………….
    Sure, there are a few nutters here who are Trump fans, believing there’s too much government in this country. But judging by the very high compliance with both lockdown and vaccinaction rules, regulations and protocols, it’s obvious this country isn’t America, and its voters are pretty appreciative of how its government services and institutions have functioned smoothly so far, hence that co-operation.

    BB
    But the MPs and Senators who opposed vaccination or vaccination mandates are Nationals, Katters party and some fringe Lib MPs/Senators like Qld Renwick.

    My point is that the above debate/opposition is reminiscent to SSM debate. A lot of LNP Senators/ MPs opposed SSM.
    But as you pointed out that only 15% population passionately opposed it and 15% passionately supported it, the rest just wanted to get on with their lives. Hence, when plebiscite was conducted only 13 federal electorates opposed it and those MPs/Senators who opposed were humiliated.

    Now how does Morrison slogan/lie that ” LNP will not tell you what to do ” fit into next federal election.
    There are people in Australia ( I don’t know the percentage) in every state (especially in Victoria, NSW andQLD) that don’t wan’t government in their lives. They do not know the nuances that government is actually more into our lives like never before. Morrison is betting on the premise that they will like the above slogan because they had enough lockdowns and curfews in the 18 months. Unfortunately Australian federal elections are decided by small percentage of people. The only hope for Australia is that people, who usually vote for Conservatives, hold their nose and vote for ALP like they did in WA and QLD in recent state elections or like they did in US Presidential elections because they had enough of Morrison.
    But the thing is I do not believe in faith when it comes to Australian politics.

  7. lizzie @ #861 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 6:25 pm

    Breaking News.
    Today Morrison ate a samosa.

    Angus Taylor MP
    @AngusTaylorMP
    ·
    56m
    Today the PM @ScottMorrisonMP and I visited Sabrini Foods in Melbourne to see how some of their delicious Indian food products are made.

    He’s courting all the big demographics: Italians, Indians, Chinese. I bet all these pic facs get channeled out to their media as soon as he does them.

  8. Banks is full of 1st and 2nd generation migrants, who fit the small business aspirational demographic. No surprises it has been a fertile ground for the Liberals.

    So why did they humiliate and shaft this area in the pandemic? LGA of concern was understood by many of the locals as ‘no concern’ for these small businesses bankrupted by Gladys following SQomo’s failure on vaccines. The main Banks ‘eat streets’ are now boarded up ghost towns.

    A large pigsty of pork is needed here, Mr Morrison

  9. On Bennelong…

    ‘Liberals named Ms Kapterian as the front-runner for the party preselection, which is expected to be a plebiscite that gives local party members a majority.

    Currently an executive at software company Salesforce, Ms Kapterian was an adviser to former foreign minister Julie Bishop and former trade minister Steve Ciobo and has strong connections in the local Armenian community.

    Mr Chung, a solicitor and barrister, was a councillor on Ryde Council for four years to 2016 before running for the City of Sydney council.

    One factor in the outcome may be a push by some Liberals for a woman to represent the seat, given that every one of the party’s federal seats north of Sydney Harbour and south of the Central Coast is held by a man.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bennelong-race-thrown-open-after-john-alexander-decides-to-leave-politics-20211112-p598id.html

  10. Too soon to parachute Gladys into Bennelong?

    Yes, and it was Warringah not Bennelong that was rumored in terms of a federal seat she would contest.

  11. C@t,

    Not an ideal time to be doing push polling.
    My OH was tapping her fingers while I did the polling portion – no way I could sit and listen to a recitation Khalil’s life story, complete with parents background even if I wanted to.


  12. mundosays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 11:39 am
    Ven @ #583 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 11:10 am


    lizziesays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:29 am

    More and more likely.

    Welcome to the Mundosphere.
    Are docking yet or still orbiting?

    mundo
    We were orbiting around the same sphere. You were trying to crash land and I was trying to land with a parachute. 🙂

  13. Victoria @ #38 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 6:30 am

    The longer this pandemic goes, the less patience I have for these people.
    I have also cut people out of my life who espouse this crapola.
    I am done with them.

    Yep. I have stopped being polite. If they are not going to meet a minimum level of sanity and respect for the welfare of others they can fuck off.

    They made their choices. They can take the consequences.

    –––––––

    Scrotto isn’t just a liar, he is also a coward.

    He knows the truth is kryptonite to him, politically and personally. His whole act is to avoid it at the cost of everything else. Hence the obsession with secrecy in all matters.

    He is in a death spiral of his own spinning. His most potent tactic – shameless reactive lies, denials, smears, and treachery – has been rumbled, laid out for all to see, and he has nothing else to offer except more of the same.

    No way this can be kept up for another 6 months. Something is going to give long before then.

    Liar and coward.

    –––––––

    GoldenSmaug @ #578 Friday, November 12th, 2021 – 9:30 am

    As far as I’m concerned we should be as neutral as possible.
    What possible benefit to us is the current belligerent attitude to China?
    I can think of no conflict we’ve been involved with since world war two that had any real benefit to Australia or that we had any business being involved in.
    I exclude peace keeping but even then think we should be careful in that regard.
    We are geographically isolated, under no immediate threat. Our military strategy should be purely based on defending Australia.

    +1

    Neutral(ish); friendly and generous, particularly in our region (SE Asia, and south-west Pacific); committed to international institutions, democracy, and the rule of law; and defensively armed to the teeth.

    Something along those lines.

    –––––––

    “delicious Indian food products”

    That is an odd phrasing.

  14. When Scott was a young boy in Bronte back in the 70s, he was playing with a hatchet, as kids do. Long story short, he chopped down his father’s favourite cherry tree. When his father got home, he grilled young Scotty about the fallen tree. Young Scotty bravely declared “I cannot tell a lie, Labor did it with my little hatchet!”

  15. I think it’s great that Morrison’s in campaign mode, forced, among other things, to deny he’s extremely careless with the truth, a meme that should resonate with the electorate, Rowe doing a sterling job of portraying him as Pinocchio. He was given the benefit in 2019 but that mistake wont’ be replicated. This man’s a creep of the first order – a charlatan – who’s rorting of the public purse has been unprecedented.

  16. Hello Poor Cameron. I also grew up in Banks-Panania Primary School in the early to mid 60’s, then Picnic Point High School after that. Absolutely safe working class Labor in those days. Alan Ashton, who held the state electorate of East Hills for 3 terms, was a few years ahead of me at Picnic Point High. But suburbs like Padstow, Revesby and Panania have undergone massive demographic change since then-these are quiet suburbs quite close to the city, very nice places to live, and a lot of the fibros have been redeveloped as duplexes. The same changes have turned the neighboring state seat of Oatley from safe Labor to safe Liberal.

    Labor lost East Hills in 2011 to the odious Glenn Brookes. This creep organised an anonymous pamphlet campaign that election, falsely claiming the Labor candidate was a friend of pedophiles. His campaign manager was later found guilty of offenses under the electoral act, and then premier Mike Baird-who I think was a decent and honest man-had Brookes expelled from the Liberal Party. It would be very sweet if Banks, and at state level East Hills, could be taken back.

  17. Cud Chewersays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 6:09 pm
    Goll @3:58

    Yes.

    R(eff) = 1.11 for NSW
    According to Billington

    Cud
    I find this trend worrying. It’s shifted substantially since “the easing”.
    At that rate of increase, Christmas period looks problematic.
    I get the feeling that people have been encouraged to relax in the wrong way and for the wrong reasons.
    The young people need vaccination as quickly as is scientifically possibly.
    The suppression of the spread needs more than use”just hope”.

  18. Mavis says:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:10 pm
    I think it’s great that Morrison’s in campaign mode, forced, among other things, to deny he’s extremely careless with the truth, a meme that should resonate with the electorate, Rowe doing a sterling job of portraying him as Pinocchio. He was given the benefit in 2019 but that mistake wont’ be replicated. This man’s a creep of the first order – a charlatan – who’s rorting of the public purse has been unprecedented.
    __________
    A little strident for you Mavis.


  19. Poor Cameronsays:
    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 5:45 pm
    I grew up in Banks, at that time it was an Anglo-Australian safe Labor electorate
    Now its a multicultural safe Liberal one…
    go figure

    Bennelong and Banks were the only Lib federal electorates that voted majority ‘No’ in SSM plebiscite. 🙂

  20. Sorry if already mentioned. A second Liberal Senator is threatening to withhold their vote over vaccine mandates, this time South Australian Senator Alex Antic. Morrison has another problem on his hands.

  21. Goll

    Its a little too early to ring alarm bells. There’s a lot of variability day to day and there’s been major outbreaks in places like Moree (that are likely to burn out).

    Give it another week or two to see where we are really at.

    rhwombat posted a while ago that cases would go through the roof after Xmas. I see reasons why things could start to go pear shaped before Xmas. Only time will tell. One thing is certain, we’ve eased restrictions too far and we’re not using absolutely every tool at our disposal:

    – Strengthening contact tracing and the public information that goes with it, not weakening it as we have been doing.

    – Subsidising those supermarket based rapid tests and making it clear that people should be using them on flights, when leaving your home city or when meeting over 60s.

    – Doing a public education campaign to get people to understand what is a safe situation and what isn’t. In other words “do it outdoors”.

    – Expedite the approval of vaccines for 5-11 yos.

    – Encourage the use of anti-viral nose sprays, especially in crowded indoor spaces.

    – Do something about the low vaccine takeup of 20 somethings. Continue to ban unvaccinated people from social venues.

    and a lot more..

  22. In Tasmania you enter into commercial transaction with a Pty Ltd subsidiary Company (no doubt with a Paid Up Capital of $2-) with no recourse to the parent Company

    And when things go belly up the parent Company announces it has no liability on account of their subsidiary Company

    The mind boggles

    Cost to the Tasmanian public?

  23. Lars Von Trier

    Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:24 pm

    [‘Friday, November 12, 2021 at 8:10 pm
    I think it’s great that Morrison’s in campaign mode, forced, among other things, to deny he’s extremely careless with the truth, a meme that should resonate with the electorate, Rowe doing a sterling job of portraying him as Pinocchio. He was given the benefit in 2019 but that mistake won’t’ be replicated. This man’s a creep of the first order – a charlatan – whose rorting of the public purse has been unprecedented.’]

    [‘A little strident for you Mavis.’]

    True, I was a little over the top but Morrison reminds me of
    an insurance salesman who convinced me that at the age of 17 that I needed life insurance; a guy in George Street, Sydney, who convinced me to hand over six-quid for a photo op – never receiving the proofs. I really don’t like the man, as would be obvious. What do you verily think of him?

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