Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.


• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

Comments Page 56 of 56
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  1. “ Perhaps a Prime Minister Albanese could make PJK a Special Envoy to mend fences with China? Could appoint a posse with Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd in tow.”

    Imagine them working out whose turn it was to talk and when to stop talking.

  2. While history has shown us a not immaterial amount of the Hawke Keating economic legacy contributed to the awful cruel greed before all economy we’ve built to replace community and society and all the inequality and injustice that is inseparable from it, the election of Howard was not a failure of Keating, it was one of our making.

    ‘Put it back the way it was before’ is the summary in ‘Keating’ of our collective decision to shrink back towards an impossible illusion of a time of white privledge and imagined freedom.amd happiness.

    Collectively we shrank back from our place in the region and the world in fear of ‘others’, hordes of people with the wrong color skin and incorrect languages.

    Instead we embraced a very white unregulated capitalism, a true very real monster that was destined to be be much worse than could have been imagined.

    And noone shrank more or deeper than the ALP. They were not about to defend brave vision when the country had embraced fear. Fear was where the middle was and no pet has followed an owner more faithfully than the ALP has followed this terrified fearful centre ever since. Surprising they won the 1 election they have.

  3. ersays:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 8:52 pm
    Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 8:20 pm

    The agenda surely warms the cockles of ALP supporter or leftist activist in this country. But the agenda is reason why ALP had its worst defeat (seats wise)in 1996, which led to Howard years, which IMO was a disaster politically as it degraded our political institutions. We are facing the consequences of that degradation now.
    Well…Imagine the legacy of the Hawke/Keating government without this agenda.

    No Native Title Act, No Reconciliation Agenda. Really great for Indigenous/Non-Indigenous relations.

    No Attempt at an Independent foreign policy. No Engagement with Asia. Or push for a Republic finalizing Australian Independence.

    No Redfern Speech
    (In 2007, ABC Radio National listeners voted the speech as their third most unforgettable speech, behind Martin Luther King Jr.’s 1963 speech “I Have a Dream” (number one) and Jesus’ Sermon on the Mount (number two)

    No attempt to infuse Australian creative industries which saw a renaissance of Australian films in the 1990s.

    What a poorer nation we would have been without all that! But it seems you’d prefer it that way.

    Then why did Kim Beazeley distanced himself and ALP from that legacy other than opposition to GST implantation like Keating did in 1993 (I know I know, Keating was first one suggest GST when he was Treasurer?

  4. JPK..
    Australia no longer focused on the middle – Indonesia and the Association of South East Asian Nations.

    As a result, Australia was “like a see-saw at the park – we are not on the pivot in the middle, but on the wobbly ends”.

  5. WeWantPaul says:

    And noone shrank more or deeper than the ALP. They were not about to defend brave vision when the country had embraced fear. Fear was where the middle was and no pet has followed an owner more faithfully than the ALP has followed this terrified fearful centre ever since. Surprising they won the 1 election they have.
    Beautifully put. And then that 1 government not only doesn’t reverse Howard’s push of single mothers into poverty, they accelerate it. All for fear of being seen to be weak on ‘welfare cheats’. Abandoning Labor’s core commitment to combat poverty.

  6. Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 9:37 pm

    Then why did Kim Beazeley distanced himself and ALP from that legacy other than opposition to GST implantation like Keating did in 1993 (I know I know, Keating was first one suggest GST when he was Treasurer?
    Who cares what Beazley did or didn’t do. To plagiarize myself from earlier, all Labor leaders since Keating haven’t measured up to his shoelaces. Fingers crossed for ALbo.

  7. “Hey steve777 I hear about 25% of coal miners in the Hunter are unvaccinated. Thoughts on how that impacts the Hunter succession?”

    I am not quite sure what you are asking here, or what the “Hunter succession” is about. NSW vaccination rates as a whole seem to be headed for at least 95% and are already at 90%. This is also true of Hunter Valley LGAs, including Maitland, Singleton and Cessnock.

    Assuming that there is an issue specific to coal miners and their families or to coal mining districts, a targeted advertising / information campaign might be in order, delivered in conjunction with the industry. The wilfully unaccinated endanger their families, their workmates and the wider community after all, not to mention their employers’ profits.

  8. Mavis

    I’m quite impressed with NSW Treasurer Matt Kean. He seems to get it, arguing variously re. the utility of EVs & the implausibility of CC & storage. He’s the first Tory I’ve heard to call it as it is, seemingly not captured by the vested interests of the fossil fuel lobby. I think he’s a future leader, it taking a lot of guts to go against the grain of his federal counterparts. Perhaps he knows they’re terminal?

    I suspect this is part of the realignment of politics that historically happens when around 30% of voters reject what is on offer from the parties who normally form government.

    But, and important question: is Matt Kean going to reverse the licence for farmers (or developers) to clear land of vegetation whenever they want, with few restraints?

    No matter how “good” your credentials may seem on the environment, allowing the destruction of the best carbon capture and storage infrastructure we have in NSW (i.e. trees) does not bode well for the EV stuff being anything but window dressing – as happy as I am to see it happen.

    Also, let us not forget Glen Turner*, NSW Environment Officer, who was shot dead by a Moree farmer in 2014, for simply stopping by the roadside and looking at said Farmers land.

    By 2017, the formerly illegal land clearing had been legalised by the NSW state government, leading to a frenzy in land clearing – and so increasing the NSW carbon footprint – and making a mockery of Glen Turner* for trying to protect (peacefully) the existing trees on farming land.

    And this land around Moree, as in land around Coonabarabran, Narrabri and Gunnedah, is Koala central territory. The destruction of eucalyptus habitat since the passage of the 2017 NSW land clearing legalisation has endangered the survival of the Koala population.

    So, I am impressed by Matt Kean, as I am by Adrian Piccoli (great national pary member who defended Gonski and public education).

    But Kean really does need to address the land clearing laws enabled by his government.

    * The tragic shooting of Glen Turner in 2014 for just pulling up by the side of the road in Moree to see what was happening with a farm under his jurisdiction, without having any intentions of even entering the property:

    Alison McKenzie, whose husband Glen Turner was killed by a farmer, is ‘horrified’ broadscale tree clearing could return in NSW

    The widow of a New South Wales environment officer murdered over his role in overseeing tree-clearing laws has asked the state government to reconsider deregulation that would see “the value of his life diminished”.

    Alison McKenzie said her family was “horrified” that changes would allow a return to broadscale clearing that her husband Glen Turner “gave his life trying to prevent”.

    McKenzie, in an emotive letter published by Fairfax, told the premier, Gladys Berejiklian, that she had “resounding feedback” from Turner’s former colleagues that “the environment is doomed if the new regulations are implemented”.

    “They are unable to speak out through fear of losing their jobs and some are suffering [post traumatic stress disorder] as a result of what happened to Glen,” she said.
    Ian Turnbull
    Farmer Ian Turnbull sentenced to 35 years for murder of NSW environment officer

    Turner was shot dead in 2014 by landholder Ian Turnbull

    Among other native flora and fauna, the properties belonging to the Turnbull family contain some of the last koala habitats in the area, especially the two properties Strathdoon and Colorado, owned by Ian’s son and grandson. Now the last of the trees on Colorado are falling, and with them the remaining fragmented habitat of a host of native animals. The family has had their applications to clear denied, and have cleared regardless. Still, despite his stoushes with Turnbull, and at least one threat of physical violence from the landowner, this is a routine departmental inspection trip to an unrelated case for Turner and his colleague Strange, who has never met Turnbull.

    It’s just before six o’clock, the end of July 2014. Knock-off time, nearly teatime. The countryside is empty. Darkness is falling. Turner asks Strange to pull over further up ahead. The pair get out of the car, where a thin wire fence stands at waist height. Turner has his GPS location reader and is jotting co-ordinates in his notebook. Strange takes out his camera and snaps a series of pictures. As he clicks, he hears a vehicle pull up behind him.

    An elderly man in a blue check shirt gets out and pauses between the cars. It’s Ian Turnbull, and he raises something to his shoulder. He puts his eye to a barrel; there’s the sound of a shot. Strange looks over at Turner. He has fallen to one knee. Turner looks up, a hand to his jaw. “Ian,” he says, “what have you done?”

    Perhaps it’s a BB [air] gun is Strange’s first thought, and this guy is just trying to be smart. But there’s blood on Turner’s face. Turner gets up. They walk quickly towards their car. There’s another shot. Strange sees blood on Turner’s shirt.

    “You’ve ruined the Turnbulls! You’re here crucifying us.”

    Turner reaches the passenger door. Strange is in front of the headlights, but the gun barrel follows them, and Turnbull, who is in his late 70s, advances. Turner crouches beside the door. “You’ve ruined the Turnbulls! You’re here crucifying us,” shouts Turnbull. “You’re going home in a body-bag.”

    Strange can hear Turner’s hoarse breathing. Strange speaks with a dry mouth, hands up in surrender, eyes on the man in front of them. “Sir, please, put the gun down. Put the gun down, please.” Turnbull won’t look at him. “No. No, no, no. Turner, you’ve taken this too far. You’ve taken us to court.” Strange tries to move and Turnbull moves sideways with him, around the car. “You’ve ruined the Turnbulls, you sent us broke.” The words spew forth in anger.

    “Sir, he’s hurt. I need to get him to the hospital. Please, put your firearm down. Let us go.”

    “Move back,” says Turnbull, “or you’ll get one in the heart.” His hands gripping the .22 rifle, holding it steady, are black with engine oil. Every time Strange asks Turnbull to put the gun down, the man raises it defiantly.

    Evidently, he’s a crack shot: the first bullet nearly hit Turner right in the head. Turnbull tells Strange to drop his camera; Strange drops it. He tells him to move back; Strange moves back. “Glen, just keep down,” Strange murmurs. When Turnbull edges around the car he mutters, “Move to the back.” Raising his voice, Strange keeps pleading. “Sir, put the gun down. There is no need for this.”

    Turner says hoarsely, “Let us go, Ian, let us go.” His hands leave bloody smears on the side of the car.

    “Don’t move,” Turnbull tells Strange, and trains the gun at him. “Or I’ll f…ing shoot you too.”

    Turner weeps, “Please. Please get us out of here, Rob. Get us out of here.”

    “You’re not here to do a job,” the man spits. “You’re here to ruin us, to take us to court. It’s not enough that we’ve been in court. You don’t leave us alone.” He jerks the gun forward. Strange feels the implacable eye of it. “All you want to do is just ruin, ruin the Turnbulls.”

    It’s now maybe 20 or 30 minutes since the horror began and still no one knows about it. No one is coming to help. Turner gets the passenger door open. Strange edges over to give him cover; the man notices the movement and Turner backs away. But the door is open. Strange thinks, if I can get to the driver’s side, get the man’s attention, Glen can get in. He makes to move, but Turnbull aims the gun straight at his head and says, “I f…ing told you. I’ll f…ing shoot you. Now get back.”

    Strange flinches. He thinks, I’m going to get shot. I’m gone. Turner is by now crouching around the back of the car, bleeding from the chest. There’s a red stain on his upper breast. Turnbull moves back there, saying, “You’re going to die, Turner, you’re going to die.”

    “We need to go,” Turner pants. “Rob? We need to go.”

    Strange forces his voice to stay calm. “Mate, it’s okay. I’ll get you out of here – just, just bear with me.” He turns to Turnbull: “Please, he’s hurt, he has a family and two little kids. We’re unarmed. We’re only here doing our job, doing what we have to do to earn a living.”

    “Well, we’ve got to earn a living too, but you’re f…ing here crucifying us.” The thin little rifle is clutched in Turnbull’s old hands. “You’ll just be back again and again, and I’m putting an end to it.”

    “I won’t be back, I can assure you,” Turner gasps. The man looks at him. “You’re going home in a body-bag, it is the only way you’re going.”

    Turner somehow gets his arm in under the fibreglass canopy at the back of their ute. His fingers find the yellow EPIRB (Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon) and presses it. A light shows it has activated. He drops the thing. Hesitating on the far side, Turnbull fires twice through the window of the glass canopy and shatters it. A bullet grazes Turner’s chest. Another shot whizzes past Strange’s head. He shouts to Turner, “Glen, Glen, get down.” Turner gasps, “I know!” Then: “I can’t do this any more, I can’t.” He breaks from his crouch and runs into the darkness of the trees. Turnbull raises his gun.

    Bang. Turner drops to the ground, face first. Strange spins around to look at the man. Turnbull lets the gun fall to his side and says, “Right, you can go now. I’m going home to wait for the police.”

    Strange runs over to Turner. He pulls him into a sitting position, cradling his head. Blood is coming out of Turner’s mouth. Strange presses his big hands against Turner’s chest. Pump. Pump. “Come on, Glen. Come on, Glen, you can’t do this. We’ve got to get home.” And he realises Glen Turner is dead.

    A 51-year-old man with a genial face, lanky legs and a passion for home brewing, Glen Turner owned a property outside Tamworth with his partner, Alison McKenzie. It was 60 hectares in a valley, much of it untouched bush. For 10 years they lived in a cabin. After their first child was born, they began building a house. They did a lot of the work themselves. Once it was completed, the new windows would frame a view of green, all the way down to a creek.

    In 2014, Glen Turner was one of at least 116 people murdered across the globe for taking a stand against environmental damage.

    But the victimhood narrative endowed on Turnbull was stronger. The image of the man holding the gun, defending his right to the land, is a composition we’ve been encouraged to honour. “Pushed to the brink on the land” is an old story.

    In May 2016, Turnbull was convicted of murder and the detaining of Robert Strange, and a month later jailed for a maximum of 35 years.

    “We expected the trial to be about the murder of Glen Turner,” Fran Pearce, Glen’s sister, read in a statement on the steps of the court. “A good man, doing his job on behalf of our community. Instead, it was hijacked by the defence into an attack on Glen’s character and a platform for the Turnbull dynasty to continue their grievance in regard to native vegetation laws.” She drew breath. “The murderer was portrayed as the victim, a poor depressed, respectable farmer driven to despair by the Office of Environment and Heritage. In reality, he is a wealthy property developer who simply refused to accept that the law applied to him.”

    This is an edited extract from The Winter Road: A Story of Legacy, Land and a Killing at Croppa Creek (Black Inc., $33) by Kate Holden, out now.

  9. Thanks D & M for posting the above. The reason I can never be impressed with any one associated with this awful terrible no good NSW Government. I have to physically restrain myself whenever I see Piccoli on Bana Avenue, Griffith.

  10. Douglas & Milko:

    [‘So, I am impressed by Matt Kean, as I am by Adrian Piccoli (great national pary member who defended Gonski and public education).

    But Kean really does need to address the land clearing laws enabled by his government.’]

    I know Kean’s got his skeletons. But at circa 40, he, for a Tory, shows promise. I think we should applaud him for at least not towing the Tory line, even though Andrew think he’s nitrogenous waste.

  11. The real problem was Howard lasting more than 1 term – noting the 2PP ALP vote after Howard’s first term

    As Malcolm Fraser said “the Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party”

    Courtesy of Howard

    I could put that the relationship between pm and treasurer was toxic during the Howard/Costello period, and that this replicated the Fraser/Howard period

    There is a common name in those descriptions

    The Divisive Dwarf

    And Australia and Australians still suffer

    The moderates, from Chaney, McPhee, Georgiou et al have been systematically removed

    We now have IPA operatives plus the Bible Group, marshalled by Hawke who has been rewarded for his efforts (so a Minister for a faction including pre selections – ironic, hey?)

  12. “I can’t quite get your point. Would you care to elucdicate?”

    I will work on it, will likely take some years.

    The forces of fear, the surprisingly broad rejection of the power of democratic Government to deliver social and community good, the embrace of unregulated exploitative capitalism by those most likely to suffer in his claws. The forces that have seen not just in the Trump / Morrison / Johnson national sewers but more broadly across the globe actual working class parties of working people replaced by ‘centre right / centre / centre left (if you are really lucky)’ uni educated elites firmly entrenched in the power structure and immune to the cries of the needy and those who have been driven into poverty by its own policies.

    It is quite the word salad of individual tress I can’t quite untangle but the forest is pretty clear to all of us. Just is more convenient for many of us to ignore it.

  13. “ I think we should applaud him for at least not towing the Tory line, even though Andrew think he’s nitrogenous waste.”

    its a marketing scam: the same one that allowed 9Faix to portray Gladys as standing up for Koalas earlier this year following Bruz’s threatened move to take the Nats to the Cross bench (but keep their ministerial positions and salary lol), when all the while Kean was dealing under the table with the Nats to further their destruction.

  14. Lurkersays:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 9:46 pm
    Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 9:37 pm

    Then why did Kim Beazeley distanced himself and ALP from that legacy other than opposition to GST implantation like Keating did in 1993 (I know I know, Keating was first one suggest GST when he was Treasurer?
    Who cares what Beazley did or didn’t do. To plagiarize myself from earlier, all Labor leaders since Keating haven’t measured up to his shoelaces. Fingers crossed for ALbo.

    I care because we had uninterrupted period of 11 Howard years which resulted in weakening of Political institutions and financial structures and enrichment on self at the detriment of others

  15. venn:

    [‘I care because we had uninterrupted period of 11 Howard years which resulted in weakening of Political institutions and financial structures and enrichment on self at the detriment of others.’]

    What we have now is a spruiker, born of the Howard era, who has the intellectual depth of Lake George

  16. Vaccine rollout:


    90.4% fully vaccinated; 94% first dose


    81.5% fully vaccinated; 89.7% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over.’] – SMH

    I’m not sure dear Cud would be content with these stats?

  17. Mavis

    As you well know those numbers are 16+. We still need to see high vaccination levels in school age children and as yet we don’t have approval for 5-11. Nor do we have adequate messaging going on about the importance of vaccinating children for the sake of the community as a whole.

    Also, hiding among those figures are weaker vaccination numbers for the 20 somethings. That’s where you’re seeing a lot of the cases at present and these serve as a reservoir.

    Also, I’ll remind you that Billington’s analysis shows R(eff) has risen to 0.99. I don’t need to remind you what happens when it goes over 1.0.

    We’ve yet to learn the lesson that vaccination alone is not enough. Not surprising given the messaging going on.

  18. Tom

    Exactly. The decision to exclude under 16s is a peculiarly Australian bit of obfuscation.

    We also have certain authorities who from the beginning have tired to sell the message that kids can’t spread it to adults. Fortunately that’s an idea that is fading.

  19. Cud Chewer:

    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 11:17 pm

    Perhaps but do you not think you’ve been over-egging it, for some time now, that the stats tell the tale?

  20. “What about that renewable energy hub over in WA?”

    The Pilbara one will be big. Approved by the W.A. govt but recently knocked back by the Feds. 🙁

    Hopefully the issues the Feds suddenly found so important (RAMSI wetlands) they will be able to plan around.

    The other is:

    Again, this one seems to have W.A. state Govt support, and u think would be using Esperance port for export.

    Big projects, that if done here at the scale proposed are the reason people are talking “Ënergy Superpower” and Australia in the same sentence.

    Dont know, but suspect similar proposals for QLD and SA may be out there. Certainly there is the other project in the NT (smaller??).

  21. I am reminded of this quote from Keating’s redfern speech:

    We cannot hide behind our political opponents’ contemporary version of social darwinism, which says that to reach back for the poor and dispossessed is to risk being dragged down. It seems to me not only morally indefensible, but bad history.

  22. Mavis

    The vaccination stats are just numbers. Here’s a simple formula for you.

    R(eff) = 5 x A x B

    What do those numbers mean?

    5.0 is a rough estimate of how many people one infected person will re-infect. The assumption here is “normal” behaviour, no controls, no vaccination.

    A is a number that is a fraction of 1.0. It takes into account the effect of vaccination. If A were equal to 0.5 then the effect of vaccination would be that every infected person re-infects 2.5 other people. In other words, explosive growth. My best guess is that A will be (when the dust settles) about 0.35 – until the effect of waning immunity with time starts to kick in.

    B is a number that is a fraction of 1.0. It takes into account the effect of behaviour. Mask wearing, social distancing, all sorts of other restrictions and of course contact tracing (which is pretty much useless these days). B could be as low as 0.4. Hence R(eff) ~ 0.7. Roughly where we got to a couple of weeks ago.

    A will soon stop getting smaller (vaccination saturation). B will continue to get larger as we continue to “normal”. Guess what happens?

    If you actually spend some time dealing with realistic numbers, then it really isn’t alarmist to say that at some point R(eff) will go over 1.0 and if it remains so, then the virus will grow exponentially. Its that simple. The only real question mark is when.

    Having said this, it is possible to keep R(eff) under 1.0 (and we all live happily ever after) by doing a bunch of sensible things that will restrict the rate of infection. But we won’t. Because we’re being taught that everything is fine now and vaccines are a magic shield.

    In December we do a bunch of really stupid things. The mask mandate gets removed. That alone will remove any margin of safety we had. (B will get larger). We will grant freedoms to the non vaccinated. We will start bringing in infected people from overseas without at the very least a routine daily test for the first few days of arrival.

    We could do a bunch of sensible things. Like keep mask wearing indoors. Like actually educating people about just how much safer outdoor environments are and actively helping businesses with ventilation and filtration. All of which is too complex for the small minds that are leading us.

    We could also be strongly encouraging rapid testing in situations (including in the home) where you get a mix of under 60s and over 60s. We could be strongly encouraging (and in some cases mandating) rapid testing for any air travel (even domestic) and every trip outside your home city.

    Little things like this that might, just preserve our “freedom” and prevent a slide into taking harsher measures. But yeah, small minds.

    Reminds me of the title of a book “play, little victims”.. look it up.

  23. poroti

    And many of the rest are 20 somethings. That’s what I’m seeing in this neck of the woods.

    Even the ACT is having a hard time getting the 20 somethings vaccinated.

    Skip down to the predictions of the number of days till 90+ full vaccination.

    ACT has every tick, except the 20-24s and they are another 200 days.

  24. poroti:

    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 11:39 pm

    [‘The kids will certainly spread it. They seem pretty good at catching it.’]

    I’m no expert but don’t kids deal with it better than old farts like us? Personally, I refuse to accept advancing age, taking solace from Peter Pan.

  25. Mavis

    “I’m no expert but don’t kids deal with it better than old farts like us?”

    They deal with it fine. But they still produce plenty of virus and shed plenty of virus. We’ve known this for a while.

  26. ‘THERE have been calls for the leader of the city’s Green council to resign after he was caught flying to a climate change conference.
    Phelim Mac Cafferty has been slammed for a “total lack of principles” after admitting that he flew to COP26 in Glasgow’
    Brighton Argus
    Nov 9
    EXCLUSIVE: The @BrightonHoveCC
    leader has apologised for a “major failure of judgement” after being caught flying to #COP26.
    took a plane from London to attend the event on the same day he criticised the government over climate change.
    Green council leader sorry for ‘major failure’ after being caught flying to climate change confer…
    THE leader of the city’s Green council has apologised for a “major failure of judgement” after being caught flying to a climate change…
    Show this thread

  27. The Shire Liar… no paddle no canoe ….

    Glasgow: China and the United States have made a shock joint statement at the Glasgow climate talks, declaring climate change to be an existential crisis demanding co-operation between the superpowers.

    Addressing a press conference at the COP26 summit, Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua unveiled a joint declaration designed to “enhance climate action in the 2020s” and said the two nations were determined to tackle global warming with “concrete and pragmatic” co-operation.

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