This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Mutating Australian white ibis could diverge from its rural cousins, or save them, scientists say
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/04/mutating-australian-white-ibis-could-diverge-from-the-rural-ibis-or-save-them-scientists-say
Steely
You’ve just proven the point – that postal voting favours the conservatives, which is why they’re not going after it as part of their reforms.
So thanks for confirming that the proposed voter ID laws are about making it harder for certain cohorts of largely left leaning voters to vote.
++++
As for Tim Smith, the call for him to leave Parliament has been made by his leader, Matthew Guy, not by anyone here (although some might agree with him).
So anyone attacking this decision is attacking Matthew Guy and undermining his leadership.
If Smith had graciously stepped aside – and if he’s such a red hot talent, then I’m sure the private sector will snap him up – Guy’s leadership would have been strengthened and his chances at the next election heightened.
Smith digging in his heels – and being supported in that by other Liberals – basically shows that Guy has no authority within his party and lacks the support of the wider Liberal network. It says to the average punter that the Liberal party is disunited and that self interest trumps the interests of the party (which means that self interest also trumps the interests of the voters).
That is not helping the Victorian Liberals one bit.
If I wanted – which I don’t – the Vic Libs to do well at the next election (State or Federal), I’d be putting pressure on Smith to go, rather than trying to defend his actions
Aurora Australis over the southern suburbs of Hobart:
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/aurora-australis-tonight.52364/page-2#post-4894965
IPA targets key Coalition seats with net zero Facebook ad campaign described by experts as ‘fear mongering’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/05/ipa-targets-key-coalition-seats-with-net-zero-facebook-ad-campaign-described-by-experts-as-fear-mongering
UAP spent just under $900,000 on YouTube ads attacking Net Zero between October 18 and 24.
No analysis in the adverts just a “Zero Emissions, Zero Jobs, Zero Future” scare campaign.
Witness in ICAC probe into Daryl Maguire was granted exemption to leave Australia
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/witness-in-icac-probe-into-daryl-maguire-was-granted-exemption-to-leave-australia-20211104-p595vk.html
zoomstersays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 6:53 am
The new voting legislation will affect Labor voters disproportionally but surely everyone has at least their medicare card.
My point was more of who you have voting for the Labor party and that Coalition postal voters seem to be people who have contributed much to Australia.
I hope they avoid his clutching hands and give him the reception he deserves.
lizzie @ #8 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 7:43 am
I fear Lizzie is in for some disappointment.
It seems that Morrison wants to spruik the post pandemic recovery.
With a little luck, Morrison might experience a few “Cobargo” moments during his travels.
More likely, he will be spending his time laying his hands on assorted Young Liberals, pre-arranged by the ground team. I am also expecting plenty of high-vis moments!
Lizzie’s and Belinda Jones’ estimations of Scomo’s Grand Tour are spot on. Am I right in assuming that Mundo thinks he’ll be mobbed with adoring crowds?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe says that Morrison will have to measure the cost of enraging France and tells us that Macron cut through the facade of the AUKUS alliance and went to the heart of the problem: the idea that a working group is an outcome.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/macron-or-micron-morrison-will-have-to-measure-the-cost-of-enraging-france-20211104-p595z6.html
Michelle Grattan says that if the government is re-elected it may be in spite of Scott Morrison rather than because of him.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-if-the-government-is-re-elected-it-may-be-in-spite-of-scott-morrison-rather-than-because-of-him-171213
Our prime minister is an embarrassment on both the national and the world stage. But few would be surprised at his latest escapade, says former diplomat Bruce Haigh.
https://johnmenadue.com/mangled-by-macron-morrisons-french-farce-shows-lack-of-character/
Prime Minister Scott Morrison must resign. The fact he won’t and will not be forced to do so illustrates, more than ever, the desultory state of Australian democracy and its ostensible guardians — the Fourth Estate, writes Dave Donovan.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/scott-morrison-really-should-resign-oui,15708
Michael Pascoe describes the Liberal Party as our local Trump Party.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/11/05/michael-pascoe-local-trump-party/
Bevan Shields writes that Mathias Cormann is urging world leaders to axe costly taxpayer-funded fossil fuel subsidies, as the Glasgow climate summit’s goal of “consigning coal to history” was undermined by a watered-down deal which key countries refused to sign.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/remove-distortions-mathias-cormann-calls-for-fossil-fuel-subsidies-to-be-abolished-20211104-p59670.html
The Government’s refusal to sign up to the global methane pledge is another example of how it’s a laggard on climate change, writes Dr Graeme McLeay.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/morrison-government-continues-to-trash-australias-reputation-on-climate,15712
Meanwhile, global carbon emissions have rapidly rebounded following pandemic shutdowns, and new research demonstrates they are already close to pre-COVID levels.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-emissions-soar-after-brief-global-pandemic-lockdown-dip-20211103-p595ja.html
Michael Keating explains how Scotty from Marketing seeks to deceive about climate change.
https://johnmenadue.com/how-scotty-from-marketing-seeks-to-deceive-about-climate-change/
Waleed Aly wonders if climate change has us licked.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/does-climate-change-have-us-licked-20211104-p595u3.html
Graham Richardson describes Malcolm Turnbull as the gift that just keeps giving for Labor.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/turnbull-the-gift-that-just-keeps-giving-for-labor/news-story/d2dd6c02a7d1abdb9cadef9cec9c0fb9
The PM was on the front foot in Rome and Glasgow, but his troubles with the rest of the world over Australia’s emissions target are just beginning, writes Colin Chapman who looks at what might happen on the trade front.
https://johnmenadue.com/free-trade-reckoning-awaits-australia-after-morrisons-glasgow-copout/
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the nation’s top financial regulator have publicly pledged to monitor the impact of climate change on the financial system amid fresh predictions major Australian companies will be forced to disclose in detail how they plan to decarbonise their operations, explain Charlotte Grieve and Shane Wright’.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/tougher-asx-climate-disclosures-inevitable-as-rba-pledges-to-monitor-risks-20211104-p595zz.html
Rio Tinto is banking on wind and solar power to slash gas use in the Pilbara, as the global miner moves to decarbonise the steel value chain, from iron ore mines to steel mills, explains Peter Milne.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rio-tinto-pumps-2b-to-power-pilbara-with-clean-energy-20211103-p595j4.html
Mike Foley writes that the Australia Workers Union hopes more Australians will go into farm work after a historic victory at the Fair Work Commission, which ordered that every farm worker in the country was entitled to the minimum casual pay rate of $25.41 per hour rather than rates as low as $3 an hour.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/workers-union-claims-historic-win-over-farm-lobby-20211104-p595yd.html
And law professor, Joanna Howe argues that this pay ruling is the first step to end the shameful story on Australian farms.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/pay-ruling-is-the-first-step-to-end-shameful-story-on-australian-farms-20211104-p5961s.html
Christopher Knaus reports that constitutional law expert Prof Anne Twomey has warned the Coalition’s voter ID bill could be challenged in court as a disproportionate measure that excludes people from voting.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/05/coalitions-voter-id-bill-could-be-challenged-in-court-over-voter-suppression-expert-warns
And Jenny Hocking argues that the voter ID laws represent a cynical assault on our democracy.
https://johnmenadue.com/voter-id-laws-a-cynical-assault-on-our-democracy/
The New South Wales electoral commissioner has warned funding constraints may delay a host of byelections to replace outgoing MPs, including former premier Gladys Berejiklian, until mid-February, setting up a potential clash with the federal election campaign, writes Michael McGowan.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/04/nsw-elections-at-risk-from-cyber-attacks-due-to-lack-of-funding-commissioner-says
Lisa Visentin reports that Alan Tudge’s hopes for a national curriculum that presents a positive view of Australian history is facing a challenge from Labor states, with ministers in Victoria and Western Australia accusing him of trying to reignite culture wars over the nation’s past.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inciting-culture-wars-labor-states-push-back-on-tudge-s-positive-history-curriculum-bid-20211102-p595bg.html
The Institute of Public Affairs paid to push targeted Facebook ads based on a “faulty analysis” claiming net zero would cause massive job losses in key Liberal and National seats during last month’s Coalition infighting.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/05/ipa-targets-key-coalition-seats-with-net-zero-facebook-ad-campaign-described-by-experts-as-fear-mongering
Students have taken control of the teaching of civics and citizenship in Victorian classrooms, producing videos and other learning resources showing how young people can “take action” to change society through their participation in democracy, reports Adam Carey.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/students-take-action-with-overhaul-of-civics-and-citizenship-lessons-20211104-p595v9.html
Matt O’Sullivan writes that a private certifier who signed off on a Sydney apartment complex – described by the state’s Building Commissioner as “probably the worst” he has inspected – has been banned for 12 months.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/certifier-of-sydney-s-worst-apartment-complex-banned-20211103-p595px.html
Climate depression is real. And it is spreading fast among our youth, explains Peter Kalmus.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/04/climate-depression-youth-crisis-world-leaders
The Morrison government’s country contingent knows how to count. If there’s a dollar to dole out to the regions, they will ensure that 80 cents of it goes to the people they won over or want to win over. While the panel may have acted within the letter of the funding guidelines, they have racked up a massive ethical deficit, writes Jommy Tee for Michael West Media.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/regional-grants-rorts-bbrf/
Life expectancy in Australia has continued to rise despite the pandemic, with the nation’s success in controlling the coronavirus helping boost the average expected lifespan to 83.2 years. Henry Cutler, director of the Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, said the data reflected Australia’s comparative success in controlling COVID-19 and its strong health system.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/life-expectancy-up-despite-pandemic-as-australia-bucks-global-trend-20211104-p595zn.html
Dozens of COVID-19 patients in Victoria’s intensive care units are missing from official figures, as the state’s health department fails to publicly report those who are lingering in hospital, including some of the most gravely ill.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/not-sustainable-dozens-of-covid-19-patients-missing-from-icu-figures-20211102-p59567.html
Chip Le Grand tells us that a Liberal Party stalwart in the conservative heartland of Kew says “all hell will break loose” if local member Tim Smith is forced to quit politics.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/as-tim-smith-s-prospects-darken-kew-backs-its-head-kicker-20211104-p5964j.html
Annika Smethurst says that while almost every one of Smith’s 30 colleagues on Spring Street now believe he has no option but to stand aside, he has found support from colleagues in Canberra who insist Smith be given more time to reflect on his career, directly undermining Guy who has made his wishes clear.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/courting-canberra-paying-dividends-for-tim-smith-20211104-p5963c.html
The Australian reveals that NSW Deputy Premier Paul Toole failed to declare more than $125,000 in rental income that he obtained from investment properties, prompting an investigation into his conduct and claims he breached disclosure requirements as a member of parliament.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-nationals-leader-paul-toole-in-hot-water-over-nondisclosure/news-story/18f0d579deebc09b034f34a509799d64
Two major dam projects in regional New South Wales have been indefinitely postponed because of massive cost blowouts, while the plan to raise the Warragamba dam wall west of Sydney is under review. The Wyangala and Mole River projects were pre-election commitments made at the height of the drought and announced with much fanfare by the then NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/04/nsw-dam-projects-in-doubt-amid-cost-blowouts-and-environmental-concerns
Anne Hyland says that, in the end, Alan Jones was not too big to cancel. She says he might now resort to social media.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/alan-jones-turns-off-television-and-could-resort-to-social-media-20211104-p5962n.html
Toby Ralph reckons Alan Jones’ number was up because his numbers were down.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/skyfall-alan-jones-number-was-up-because-his-numbers-were-down-20211104-p5962b.html
Hannah Wooton reports that an Australian Competition and Consumer Commission investigator has admitted to “tidying up” witness quotes from memory as part of the editing process of witness statements by JPMorgan bankers, as the watchdog’s long-running criminal cartel action over a failed capital raising continues.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/accc-tidied-up-witness-quotes-from-memory-in-banking-cartel-case-20211104-p595y7
A market punishing of Domino’s and Inghams signals that food companies must show they can pass on rising costs, or risk shareholder wrath.
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/investors-start-to-fear-cost-crunch-20211104-p5962z
A Guardian contribution says that, like other American police unions, the PBA uses its political clout and large coffers to push regressive policies and fight any move towards an even slightly more humane justice system.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/04/why-are-so-many-nypd-officers-fighting-vaccination
In Georgia, a judge has ruled that he’ll seat one black and 11 white jurors to decide the trial of the men who chased and killed a black man, Ahmaud Arbery, despite prosecutors’ objections that several black potential jurors were cut because of their race. What a joint!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/intentional-discrimination-almost-all-white-jury-to-hear-arbery-murder-trial-20211104-p59611.html
A man wrongfully identified by a Seven West media platform as the suspect in custody over the abduction of Cleo Smith could sue the conglomerate for more than $400,000, according to defamation lawyers. Definitely a nomination for “Arseholes of the Week” and it serves them right!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/western-australia/seven-west-apologises-for-wrongfully-identifying-man-over-cleo-smith-s-abduction-20211104-p5960h.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Matt Golding
David Rowe
Cathy Wilcox
Mark David
Glen Le Lievre
Peter Broelman
Jim Pavlidis
Andrew Dyson
Simon Letch
Warren Brown
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
bakunin @ #5 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 7:26 am
As Clive is a vested interest in Australia doing nothing about GHGEs, this isn’t a surprise.
The IPA have form on cocking up their research reports.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/sep/10/how-the-australian-and-the-ipas-attack-on-the-abc-went-horribly-wrong
Clive Palmer wants to open the Bowen Basin to Coal Mining. ‘Nuff said.
It’s that which will give us ‘Zero Future’. 😐
Sohar @ #12 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 7:53 am
No I’m saying the media is likely to highlight and enlarge any expression of approval or affection for Scotty which will almost certainly occur.
C@t,
Has Labor’s position on new coal changed since April?
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/thebriefing/max-opray/2021/04/19/labor-backs-coal-beyond-2050
Dave Donovan has lost grip on reality if he is suggesting that Morrison should resign (even if he admits that he won’t).
Morrison has a squirrel grip on his MPs, and anyway his history suggests that the only way to get rid of him is sacking him by a higher authority – the voters.
Michelle Grattan suggests ‘“Who do you regard as more competent to manage the economy?” might avoid the hazards of having Morrison campaigning on “trust”.
Labor is expecting this surely, and has worked out a counter-argument?
Two big brains like Chalmers and Leigh along with an advisor with some sense oughta be capable of working something out.
Inside Australia’s COP26 ‘propaganda’ pavilion, which went viral for touting fossil fuel companies
Delegates at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow have been left stunned by Australia’s national pavilion, which includes exhibits from fossil fuel companies.
Under the banner ‘Positive energy the Australian way’, the pavilion includes an exhibit about carbon capture by oil and gas company Santos.
https://thenewdaily-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/11/03/australia-cop26-pavilion/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16360355975053&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthenewdaily.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2F2021%2F11%2F03%2Faustralia-cop26-pavilion%2F
bakunin,
Labor’s position will be announced in due course before the election. It will be realistic and considerate of all parties concerned, not simply and simplistically the inner city, tree change and sea change voters for The Greens.
”
Soharsays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 7:53 am
Lizzie’s and Belinda Jones’ estimations of Scomo’s Grand Tour are spot on. Am I right in assuming that Mundo thinks he’ll be mobbed with adoring crowds?
”
mundo thinks the Australian people are putty in Morrison hands. He waves his ‘magical’ hands and Voilà they will forget all their hardships and gather around him. He thinks Morrison is Bob Hawke of LNP. 🙂
Watching with interest the progress of the Dim Tim Saga. Seems from ‘The Age’ article he has the ‘naice people’ on his side at least.
Meanwhile, the security around the Prime Tourer’s itinerary around NSW/Vic will be guarded like the Crown Jewels! Will it be paid for by the LNP?
Shit NO!
Frydenberg is doing his own version of a tour around his electorate by visiting a coffee shop every day, with or without another Lib MP, but always with a media crew, praising their coffee .
Remember how it was the coffee shops who suffered most during lockdowns (ABC)? Now Joshie says it was gov support that pulled them through.
bakunin @ #5 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 7:26 am
I am sure I saw one of those during the cricket last night – so on Foxtel as well
BK @ #13 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 7:56 am
Let’s not forget that Labor also refuses to pledge. This tells you all you need to know.
Vote for policies, not for parties. Vote independent.
I’m of the view that Tim Smith shouldn’t have to resign from parliament.
He made a mistake, a huge one and of course he is an arsehat but plenty of others have made similar mistakes and after a period of contrition, rehabilitation and remorse, got on with their lives and careers.
C@tmomma @ #24 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 8:35 am
We know Labor’s polices … #MehToo
ABC reporting 1,343 new cases in Victoria
Victoria has recorded 1,343 new local COVID-19 cases and 10 deaths as the state’s border with New South Wales reopens.
There are now 18,952 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 345 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.
There are 634 people in hospital in Victoria with COVID-19, of whom 109 are in intensive care, and 73 are on a ventilator.
The new cases were detected from 66,155 test results received yesterday.
There were 14,255 doses of vaccine given at state-run centres yesterday, as well as more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.
The new cases come as Victoria opens its border to New South Wales for the first time in months.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-05/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100596394
NSW 249 cases, 3 deaths, (-17) hospital, (-3) ICU.
Sizeable outbreak in Moree
There are several tens of billions of repressed consumer demand that are about to give the economy a one-off sugar hit.
Morrison’s original plan was to claim Covid success with this sugar hit to run an election this year.
That plan would have avoided the run down of Commonwealth Covid support funding, the revelation of the real unemployment rates once the sugar hit subsides, inflation, the general consequences of disruptions to the global supply chain and the particular consequences of Xi’s trade vengeance.
This is a tester to see whether the early option is still a goer.
I assume that this sortie is also an attempt to stave off an attempt on his job by Dutton.
Henry @ #31 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 8:58 am
Have any of them been from the Labor party?
NSW 249 new cases and 3 deaths.
Victoria 1,343 cases and 10 deaths.
lizzie @ #28 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 8:54 am
The campaign has started already.
Morning all and thanks for the roundup BK. I find my view of COP26 fairly bleak at this point. Putting aside the farcical distraction of Morrison’s fake-news pledge of Net zero policy by 2050, the rest of the world’s actions are falling far short too.
Poorer countries are being just as cynical actors as rich countries. The idea that climate change was caused by the rich and suffered by the poor was always an over-simplification. Some rich countries do not cause it; some poor ones do. Indonesia to the north is a good example. They were promised money in Kyoto and are demanding money to stop actions like deforestation. This merely distracts from the failure to get all coal users to abandon its use. The claimed “successes” of COP26 so far do not look like delivering as promised.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59169547
Coal is more expensive than renewables in poor countries as well as here. So why is it so hard to stop? Corruption seems the obvious answer, in poor as well as rich countries.
Biden has been weak as well. Joe Manchin has gotten to him and his administration is now approving new oil exploration areas. He has caved, and I think this could cost the Dumocrats the 2024 election.
I fear we are headed for limited success on climate change, and a 2+degree rise, with all the damage and social conflict that will cause.
Ven @ #25 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 8:42 am
‘mundo thinks the Australian people are putty in Morrison hands.’
I actually do.
Not all of us, obviously, but a sizable chunk.
I don’t think those people who voted for Abbott and voted for Morrison last time round can be rehabilitated.
Sit rep. Go or don’t go?
We have Porter sticking around, Taylor spruiking fossils in Glasgow, Dutton keeping an eye on the numbers against Morrison, Frydenberg furiously running for PM in Victoria, Golden Girl Berejiklian gone AND in some sort of the ICAC poo, Perrotet and Ayers being in an adjacent decision-making space on the Southern Hemisphere’s most glorious clay pigeon shooting truc, Barilaro suddenly gone under interesting circumstances, O’Toole already mired in a failure-to-declare fiasco, Guy being undermined by the Federal Liberal anti-lobster Push, Joyce and Morrison saying different things about what was in the plan about methane, Pitt getting a dirty jolly as a result of a deal, Morrison fresh from his wombat triumph over the world’s climate, Morrison underwater from his sub disaster decisions, and Morrison at war with Macron, Biden AND Xi.
Given the Wombat Pariah’s form, a federal election before Christmas must be a near certainty.
Henry
“ I’m of the view that Tim Smith shouldn’t have to resign from parliament.
He made a mistake, a huge one and of course he is an arsehat but plenty of others have made similar mistakes and after a period of contrition, rehabilitation and remorse, got on with their lives and careers.”
I think the case of Barnaby Joyce illustrates how well this approach works. I see no reason to believe why it will work any better in Smith’s case either.
From day one Smith has been in denial and damage control about the crash and alleged drinking. I see zero evidence of contrition, merely a desire to hang onto a seat that is a $200k job for life for a Liberal candidate.
Shellbell @ #34 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:04 am
The result of a big funeral last week.
Really… the most 2 faced bullshit artists to have ever been in Gov. Where was Gorman when he had a chance to do something.. other than for himself..
‘Remove distortions’: Mathias Cormann calls for fossil fuel subsidies to be abolished
BBC interview this morning with “ pandemic expert”, blow out in European infection rates, likely additional 500,000 deaths this winter.. they classify Russian, Balkans et al as European.. extremely low vax rates.. 30%
ACT is at odds with the NSW compromise position on allowing wild horses in the Kosciuszko National Park
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7497963/barilaro-exit-has-act-on-the-offensive-over-wild-horses-issue/?cs=14225
Biden has been weak as well. Joe Manchin has gotten to him and his administration is now approving new oil exploration areas. He has caved, and I think this could cost the Dumocrats the 2024 election.
This is more than a little unfair. As a clear-eyed observer pointed out yesterday, Bill Clinton had a Democrat Senate with 57 Senators and Barack Obama had 60. Joe Biden has 50. Do the math.
We can putty speculate. Or we can go with the data.
According to Mr Bowe’s calculations, around 830,000 of Morrison’s putty voters have switched their primary voting intention away from the Coalition since the last election.
Around 700,000 of Morrison’s putty voters have switched their voting intention to Labor.
Around 80,000 putty voters have switched their voting intention to the Greens.
Further, around 7,300,000 Morrison’s voters have shown some form of resistance to Morrison’s putty by sticking with Labor and the Greens polling intention since the last election.
Henry
The Liberals undermining Matthew Guy s pretty astounding. Just add you to the list I suppose.
‘Jaeger says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 9:32 am
ACT is at odds with the NSW compromise position on allowing wild horses in the Kosciuszko National Park
“Just as Mr Barilaro has been consigned to history, so too must his Kosciuszko Wild Horse Heritage Act 2018,” the ACT Minister for Land Management Mick Gentleman said.
…’
=======================
Fair enough. The ACT has to help bear the cost of cleaning up Barilaro’s Kusciusko Mess.