Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

Comments Page 2 of 56
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  1. But Tim Smith didn’t get breathylsed and blow. 06….. He dangerously crashed his car and blew 0.13…… Hardly a harmless error

  3. French Ambassador claims the sub deal had been subjected to a smear campaign.
    Any guesses who has been orchestrating the media campaign against the sub deal??

  4. Re Morrison’s grand tour of NSW/Vic – does this occur after his 14 days quarantine or doesn’t quarantine apply anymore?

    In any case, there might be more than a few of the Liberal Party faithful who are hesitant to be seen publicly with Morrison at the moment.

  5. Mal Peters
    @peters_malcolm
    ·
    10m
    Australian defence minister Peter Dutton urges French to focus on China instead of ‘hurt feelings’ over submarine contract
    Dutton exhibits all the subtlety and diplomatic skill of a Queensland plod.

  6. citizen @ #54 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:39 am

    Re Morrison’s grand tour of NSW/Vic – does this occur after his 14 days quarantine or doesn’t quarantine apply anymore?

    In any case, there might be more than a few of the Liberal Party faithful who are hesitant to be seen publicly with Morrison at the moment.

    No more NSW quarantine.

  7. Day 4 of Sarah in Scotland!

    Watch the video on SHY’s FB.

    Gee what a surprise that ScoMo won’t agree to stop using coal! Labor still apparently reckons there’s a future for coal too, although nailing down what their actual policy is something even they are seemingly incapable of.

  9. C@tmomma at 8:35 am

    bakunin,
    Labor’s position will be announced in due course before the election.

    That’s an error they keep making. Announce it in the throes of an election . It means an instant barrage of bullshit and something ‘new’ so ripe for a scare campaign .The campaign topic become Labor trying to fight off the bullshit and fear rather than ‘the other lot’.Fighting the fear and lies in the hurly burly of an election is nigh impossible.
    So get something early , leave themselves plenty of time to drum into the ‘barely interested’ what is really involved. Do it when there is time to counter the bullshit. Have it part of the mental ‘furniture’ come election time instead of having it ‘sprung’ on voters and it asking for a scare campaign of bullshit from the usual suspects..

  10. Cat

    I was aware of the math. But the 50/50 senate is why Manchin can call the shots. He is still making Biden look weak and unable to deliver his promises. I said Biden was weak, not evil.

    And the oil permits issued by his own interior secretary are entirely on Biden, not Manchin.

  11. Firefox @ #57 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:45 am

    Gee what a surprise that ScoMo won’t agree to stop using coal! Labor still apparently reckons there’s a future for coal too, although nailing down what their actual policy is something even they are seemingly incapable of.

    Be fair! How can Labor be expected to decide their policy before the LNP publish theirs?

  13. poroti @ #11 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:49 am

    C@tmomma at 8:35 am

    bakunin,
    Labor’s position will be announced in due course before the election.

    That’s an error they keep making. Announce it in the throes of an election . It means an instant barrage of bullshit and something ‘new’ so ripe for a scare campaign .The campaign topic become Labor trying to fight off the bullshit and fear rather than ‘the other lot’.Fighting the fear and lies in the hurly burly of an election is nigh impossible.
    So get something early , leave themselves plenty of time to drum into the ‘barely interested’ what is really involved. Do it when there is time to counter the bullshit. Have it part of the mental ‘furniture’ come election time instead of having it ‘sprung’ on voters and it asking for a scare campaign of bullshit from the usual suspects..

    Maybe it’ll be bullshit-proof, Poroti?
    It’s doable.

  14. “Labor has declared “No new coal mines”, while LNP are giving permission for more to open. See the difference?”

    ***

    Labor backs coal beyond 2050

    Labor’s opposition resources spokesperson Madeleine King has come out in support of thermal coal exports beyond 2050, in a position at odds with achieving the ambitions of the Paris climate accord. In an interview with The Australian, the West Australian MP simultaneously backed Anthony Albanese’s commitment of net-zero emissions by 2050 and continued export of both thermal and metallurgical coal for decades to come. “I think we go beyond the middle of the century, I really do,” she said. King said Labor was “absolutely not supportive one bit” of a push by Malcolm Turnbull for a moratorium on new coalmines in the Hunter Valley and that coal will experience “a slow gradual decline in demand”.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/thebriefing/max-opray/2021/04/19/labor-backs-coal-beyond-2050

    And then you’ve got Labor MPs in QLD spruking the opening of more coal mines under their watch…

    On the other hand we have people like you saying that Labor doesn’t support coal. I believe you when you say that you don’t support it but unfortunately Labor certainly does. All I know is that you guys need to come to a solid position one way or another. This sitting on the fence stuff and having a bob each way is asking for trouble.

  17. Albanese and others within the federal caucus have stated the obvious numerous times ie there will be no new coal fired power stations built in Australia.

    However, I do not believe that at any time under Albanese labor has put forward the proposition that there will be no new coal mines opened in Australia. At no time has labor stated this. It would be foolish and politically naive to do so given the future of coal will be determined not by Australian governments but by the demand for coal from other countries.

    Why die in a ditch over something that will happen “ naturally” over time ?

  18. doyley

    Thank you for the clarification between coal mines and coal-fired power stations. My brain is a little slow this morning.

  20. An interesting point from the HS article about UAP members. They are asked if they were previously members of another political party, around half were ( mostly Labor)

    “We ask them ‘why did they leave the political party?’ and those ones were overwhelmingly because they were against mandatory vaccine,” he [Palmer] said.

    So the take-up is among “You can’t tell me what to do” anti-vaxxers. Some of these people might even be vaxxed or intend to, just resent it being mandatory. So it’s not surprising membership is growing, even in areas you wouldn’t expect, like blue-ribbon areas of Victoria or Sydney.

    I have to say, the push for mandatory vaccination outside healthcare settings worries me, it seems to be going too far down the authoritarian path for my liking. I think the $300 offered by Labor would have been a better approach.

  21. lizzie,

    My pleasure.

    With all the noise and “ he said, she said, they said” floating around on a daily basis it is very easy for anyone and every one to get a bit lost in the “fog” from time to time.

    Have a great day.

  23. “I’m not a Labor member, just a commentator. I found Madeleine King’s comments stupid.”

    ***

    Noted. Yeah it was a silly thing to say. See the problem continues to be that half of Labor is pulling one way and the other half is trying to pull the other way. Picture a giant game of Tug of War between the Labor Left and Right Factions. One side makes some progress and pulls Labor in one direction, then the other gives the rope a big heave-ho and pulls the party back in the other direction. Neither are really achieving much because they keep canceling each other’s progress out. One side needs to let go of the rope and let the party settle on a position.

  26. I do like this comment.

    By campaigning, Morrison thinks he is playing to his strengths.
    But he is trying to avoid his main weakness – which is governing.

  27. Loris @ #70 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:07 am

    So the take-up is among “You [can’t] tell me what to do” anti-vaxxers. Some of these people might even be vaxxed or intend to, just resent it being mandatory.

    Last time I checked, which admittedly was some decades ago now, you wouldn’t be admitted into a public school without having a number of different vaccinations (diphtheria, tetanus, measles, mumps, rubella, etc.). The “vaccine mandates are authoritarian” idiots lost their battle ages ago. They don’t need coddling. Or validation.

  28. poroti says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 9:49 am
    C@tmomma at 8:35 am

    bakunin,
    Labor’s position will be announced in due course before the election.
    That’s an error they keep making.

    The gratification of the Greens and their satellites is not an object of Labor politics. The electorate are essentially disengaged from politics. They can’t stand it. There will be a campaign period. Very reluctantly and with a hundredweight of scepticism, voters will have a look at what the parties propose. Then the voters will choose. This season is short. Voters are thankful for that.

  29. Bruce Guthrie
    @brucerguthrie
    ·
    2m
    Between Birmingham, Bragg, Wilson and others, it’s pretty clear this mob hate journalism, love PR. Always a sign of a govt under pressure.

  30. When asked “What would you do with an unvaccinated friend”
    that my response of
    “Drop them because they are a serious risk to your health”
    was met with shock, so I elaborated on the 20 times increase in risk of them passing on Covid and that vaccination reduces your risk of illness

  31. Firefox says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 9:56 am
    “Labor has declared “No new coal mines”, while LNP are giving permission for more to open. See the difference?”

    ***

    Labor backs coal beyond 2050

    It is essential for Labor that they distinguish themselves from the Greens. Using coal is a very good way to do just that. The Greens have made coal a political weapon. It can be turned against them as easily as they have used it to assail Labor.

    Good politics by Labor. Very good.

  32. Karen Middleton
    @KarenMMiddleton
    So logically then, we should accept everything our own government says is fact & not interrogate it because, l mean, it’s our government & it would be unpatriotic to question it & our government would never trash another country for its own political gain. Would it?

  34. Firefox @ #73 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 10:13 am

    “I’m not a Labor member, just a commentator. I found Madeleine King’s comments stupid.”

    ***

    Noted. Yeah it was a silly thing to say. See the problem continues to be that half of Labor is pulling one way and the other half is trying to pull the other way. Picture a giant game of Tug of War between the Labor Left and Right Factions. One side makes some progress and pulls Labor in one direction, then the other gives the rope a big heave-ho and pulls the party back in the other direction. Neither are really achieving much because they keep canceling each other’s progress out. One side needs to let go of the rope and let the party settle on a position.

    You mean like the Liberals and the Nationals?

  35. Mandatory COVID vaccination for Greek medical professionals is in the courts as a human rights violation

    https://theconversation.com/compulsory-vaccination-what-does-human-rights-law-say-167735

    “As it is often the case in human rights law, there is no simple solution here. Compulsory vaccination is an interference with the human right of bodily integrity, which is a part of the right to private life enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights as well as in the European Convention on Human Rights. However, not every interference with this right is automatically illegal. The legality depends on several factors. ”

    I’m not saying this as an anti-vaxxer, I’m fully vaxxed, just pointing out this is a dangerous path to go down (other than in healthcare settings) that could have unintended consequences. I prefer the carrot to the stick, otherwise there is a risk that the political fringe grows, as can be seen with the UAP.

    In any case, pollsters might need to start including UAP as an option, rather than just “independent/other” to track what is happening out there.

  36. Firefox says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 10:13 am

    See the problem continues to be that half of Labor is pulling one way and the other half is trying to pull the other way. Picture a giant game of Tug of War between the Labor Left and Right Factions. One side makes some progress and pulls Labor in one direction, then the other gives the rope a big heave-ho and pulls the party back in the other direction. Neither are really achieving much because they keep canceling each other’s progress out. One side needs to let go of the rope and let the party settle on a position.

    This is Green disinformation. Labor is really not divided along these lines. Labor will not succumb to the Green fascination with self-destruction.

    The Greens have spent the last 500 years trying to provoke a split inside Labor on the environment and on coal in particular. This is Labor-phobia dressed up as Greenery. It has not divided Labor. Nor will it. But it has illustrated to the True Believers just how treacherous the Greens really are.

  37. Singing Bloos @ #81 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 10:40 am

    It is essential for Labor that they distinguish themselves from the Greens. Using coal is a very good way to do just that. The Greens have made coal a political weapon. It can be turned against them as easily as they have used it to assail Labor.

    Good politics by Labor. Very good.

    You never cease to astonish. But not in a good way.

  38. Firefox says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 9:45 am
    Day 4 of Sarah in Scotland!

    This is all spectacle that prefaces the Green contribution to the re-election of the LNP. Such worthless posturing. The Greens are a pro-reactionary prickle in the lawn.

  39. Player One says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 10:50 am

    You never astonish me at all. You have degraded yourself and will not resile. How very stale.

  40. Singing Bloos

    Quick quiz. Which of the following statements do you most agree with?

    “Australia needs to phase out coal as soon as practical”
    “Australia should continue to mine coal well past 2050”

  42. “Lawyers get paid large out of public funds raised by Mr Shanks.”

    I would have thought that made them private funds. The likes of Berejiklian and Maguire, on the other hand, are definitely having their legal fees paid out of public funds.

  43. Just watching YouTube.

    Clive Palmer is RE-litigating his case against the WA government as a three-minute ad on YouTube… placed into the middle of a Friendly Jordies clip.

    I wonder who he thinks he’s impressing?

  44. Looks like Barilaro quit while he was behind, he can now move onto the next phase of his life, hopefully with ICAC looking into his tenure.

    “Our client will not be paying a single cent in damages to Mr Barilaro. Not one video will be taken down,” Mr Davis said.

    He said Mr Shanks had been denied the defence of truth “because of the parliamentary privilege enjoyed by Mr Barilaro”.

  45. bakunin says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 7:26 am

    UAP spent just under $900,000 on YouTube ads attacking Net Zero between October 18 and 24.

    No analysis in the adverts just a “Zero Emissions, Zero Jobs, Zero Future” scare campaign.

    This is the background memory of many voters, especially in coal-conscious and gas-conscious electorates. It’s in these electorates that the 2019 election was decided, and it was decided in favour of the LNP. Palmer is campaigning on these themes once again for his tribe.

    These electorates remain critical. If the LNP lose any at all, they will most likely not be able to form a majority government. So Palmer is doing his best to prop up the LNP among sensitised voters in those regions.

    The Greens, of course, will also try to prop up LNP support in those same regions. They have been doing so every day for months and this will intensify as the election approaches. Labor will find it very difficult to pick up seats in coal-conscious QLD or NSW in these circumstances, and this must be a positive for the LNP.

  46. Loris @ #85 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:45 am

    I’m not saying this as an anti-vaxxer, I’m fully vaxxed, just pointing out this is a dangerous path to go down that could have unintended consequences.

    It’s a path we’ve already gone down. In the 1980’s, if not earlier. If there were dangerous or unintended consequences, we’d have them by now.

    Vaccine mandates are authoritarian, yes. In the sense that the statement is literally true. But they’re a totally routine, accepted, and normalized form of authoritarianism. That people will pick it up as some sort of rallying cry today shows that either they haven’t paid attention at any point during the past ~40 years or they’re just the usual disingenuous, shit-stirring culture warriors looking to stir some shit and start another vacuous culture war.

    Might as well complain that you need a license to drive a car, and that even if you go to the trouble of getting one you still can’t drive as fast as you feel like or without wearing a seatbelt or while drunk off your ass. Stupid authoritarian traffic laws trying to tell us what we can and can’t do. It’s a total disgrace and outrage the government takes so much control over our lives! 🙂

  47. lizzie @ #82 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 7:40 am

    Karen Middleton
    @KarenMMiddleton
    So logically then, we should accept everything our own government says is fact & not interrogate it because, l mean, it’s our government & it would be unpatriotic to question it & our government would never trash another country for its own political gain. Would it?

    Unfortunately much of the reporting follows this line with press releases often published as news without analysis or comment.

  48. Loris @ #85 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 7:45 am

    Mandatory COVID vaccination for Greek medical professionals is in the courts as a human rights violation

    https://theconversation.com/compulsory-vaccination-what-does-human-rights-law-say-167735

    “As it is often the case in human rights law, there is no simple solution here. Compulsory vaccination is an interference with the human right of bodily integrity, which is a part of the right to private life enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights as well as in the European Convention on Human Rights. However, not every interference with this right is automatically illegal. The legality depends on several factors. ”

    I’m not saying this as an anti-vaxxer, I’m fully vaxxed, just pointing out this is a dangerous path to go down that could have unintended consequences. I prefer the carrot to the stick, otherwise there is a risk that the political fringe grows, as can be seen with the UAP.

    In any case, pollsters might need to start including UAP as an option, rather than just “independent/other” to track what is happening out there.

    So are you against the restrictions placed on unvaccinated children?

  49. Cud Chewer says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 10:53 am
    Singing Bloos

    Quick quiz. Which of the following statements do you most agree with?

    “Australia needs to phase out coal as soon as practical”
    “Australia should continue to mine coal well past 2050”

    This is not a question that is relevant to me. The relevant issues are whether and how Labor might secure a highly improbable victory over the reactionaries.

    Labor is surrounded by opponents, enemies, agitators, cynics, spies and double-agents. They all work for the LNP, one way or another, whether they’re aware of it or not. Labor have to win despite them. It will be difficult. It’s invariably difficult. And its usually not going to happen.

  50. a r says:
    Friday, November 5, 2021 at 11:03 am
    Loris @ #85 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 9:45 am

    I’m not saying this as an anti-vaxxer, I’m fully vaxxed, just pointing out this is a dangerous path to go down that could have unintended consequences.
    It’s a path we’ve already gone down. In the 1980’s, if not earlier. If there were dangerous or unintended consequences, we’d have them by now.

    Vaccine mandates are authoritarian, yes. In the sense that the statement is literally true. But they’re a totally routine, accepted, and normalized form of authoritarianism.

    Authoritarian? Not so much. In the same way as I’m going to drive on the left hand side of the road and observe the speed limits while operating a motor vehicle, I’m going to be vaccinated. The “authoritarian” claim is nonsense. It is complete nonsense.

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