This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
I am waiting with anticipation for Labor’s climate plan, noting c@t said it will be released after COP (so now?)
That Blueprint poll bodes well for the ALP. Surely the party offering a high-spending plan with specific plans for big government investment in renewable power generation (the low hanging fruit which Angus and Scotty somehow ignored) – will win votes over the vague and hard to believe Liberal plan.
Labor’s existing climate-related policies (transmission, energy apprenticeships, EV tax cut etc.) need to be re-announced given they’ve received little to no coverage despite being good policies.
Sceptic,
True, was thinking more of the Glamarama set.
Says he whose never had a multi lane freeway put through his backyard.
Edit – TOLLWAY
Ven says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 12:34 pm
______________________
Petty
HS article said there were many males under 40 who were joining UAP – so either have no children, or their wives/partners were in charge of getting the kids vaccinated.
I wonder how many of these are actually scared of the jab due to bad childhood experiences, but don’t want to admit it. $300 might persuade them!
Singing Bloos
“Politics is not about the self. It’s about the people. One’s own aspirations are going to be sublimated by the common result. This is democratic politics.”
So if the people want more coal and want the consequences, that’s fine? No need to enter into the conversation and try to educate and lead? Because that’s what Labor is failing to do.
The only way you get to the point of doing the morally defensible, despite the ‘will of the people’ is to actually get into the fray and argue for good policy. That’s also democratic politics – or at least it was.
Morrison has a reputation for being careless with the truth. The President of a significant world power makes it known that Morrison has lied to him as well and the most senior liberal in the Senate says we shouldn’t have been told about it.
Who the hell do these pricks think they are?
The idea that Charlie would be a fanboi of Rum Corp style ‘development’ is almost as big a pile of manure as the beliefs of the Hillsong happy clappers.
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases have stopped declining
– New cases: 84,747 ……………….. – New deaths: 1,211
– In hospital: 46,304 (-534)
– In ICU: 12,168 (-247)
772,315 total deaths now
Shellbell @ #148 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 12:04 pm
2 posts aiming at Jordies lawyers and crowdfunding to cover costs. But no answer to how your average joe (and I include WB in this) are supposed to deal with wealthy individuals using the court as an instrument to threaten and then bludgeon.
Lady Justice no longer has a blindfold.
mikehilliard
Morrison desperately trying to prove that he is besties with all the leaders at Glasgow.
And the problem continues as we dont have a judgment. We just have a backroom deal.
Cud Chewer
Get with the program. The idea is to promise nothing, to be invisible in the hope people will be attracted to your style of nothing and vote for your nothing rather than the other lot. Lead from waay down the back ..
Good. Hopefully QLD will remove the “hotspot” designation for the ACT soon.
SK
The problem is not crowdfunding but what the level of disclosure is associated with it and XD pressing a very high profile for themselves by telling what looks like a pretty incomplete story.
Do you tell your funders that most cases settle and there is a better than even chance this will settle and the funds for settlement maybe from the funders?
mikehilliard @ #153 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 12:41 pm
I doubt Prince Charles has either!
And on tolls, something we do not have in WA, I’ve investigated road travel for a weekend away now that Sydney is able to escape, and was shocked to see that a return trip is going to cost me near to $80! Just for the ‘privilege’ of driving on freeways.
WFT?!
Shellbell, yes, the problem isnt crowdfunding. Nor XD. They are a disagreeable consequence of the problem.
lizzie + poroti
I think you’re both right, Morrison is bull shitting again.
Charlie has quite a position on urban planning/architecture. I think he’d find what the Libs have done to Sydney uncouth.
So there is a name for it……. “Simpson’s paradox” . Something the antivax nutters are enthusiastically taking advantage of to mislead people.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/126883892/covid19-how-raw-vaccine-and-case-data-can-be-very-misleading
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/31/covid-israel-hospitalization-rates-simpsons-paradox/
Could almost have been a Sun article….
Tories engulfed in sleaze crisis after U-turn and Owen Paterson resignation
Conservative MPs react with fury at ‘own goal’ after PM ditches bid to shield former minister from lobbying claims
Just substitute Liberal for Tories & Shire Liar for PM ( Boris)
The Three Anglo Amigos: Trump, Morrison and Johnson.
Johnson’s turn – up to his neck in shit and sleaze:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/04/tories-engulfed-in-sleaze-crisis-after-u-turn-and-owen-paterson-resignation
Sceptic
I believe we achieved a ‘snap’, of sorts!
“And on tolls, something we do not have in WA, I’ve investigated road travel for a weekend away now that Sydney is able to escape, and was shocked to see that a return trip is going to cost me near to $80! Just for the ‘privilege’ of driving on freeways.
WFT?!”
***
Haven’t been up there in a couple of years (Covid) but every time I have to drive into either Logan or Brisbane I’m shocked at how many tolls there are in that part of QLD. The Gold Coast is ok but once you head further north into parts of Logan and beyond you better be ready to part with a fair few coins. Similar to parts of Sydney.
Tolls are a de facto form of carbon tax on fossil fuel vehicles.
Excellent stuff, IMO.
poroti,
I’ve posted on Simpson’s paradox at lest three times on this site. Were you not paying attention?
Boerwar/Sceptic,
The first 3 UK cartoons from todays collection were all about this issue.
poroti
I have to admit, I laughed out loud at the phrase “your style of nothing”!!
Check out Shank’s latest video where he makes it clear the NSW Police have been targeting critics of the Government.
I say again, who do these pricks think they are?
This is all spectacle that prefaces the Green contribution to the re-election of the LNP. Such worthless posturing. The Greens are a pro-reactionary prickle in the lawn.
This is it in a nutshell. Labor was in a battle trying to win the 2016 federal election campaign. And what does Greens leader Richard Di Natalie do? He starts calling out Labor’s campaign on Medicare as a scare campaign. Right in the election campaign when Labor was trying to dislodge the Federal Liberal government. And humming along the same playbook as the Liberals and Newscorp……
The Greens have told Labor there’s no need for the opposition to run a scare campaign on Medicare.
Leader Richard Di Natale has advised Labor to stick to the truth, saying cuts to hospitals and the rebate freeze are scary enough.
“Of course Labor doesn’t want to go there because they themselves cut hospital funding and froze the rebate, so instead they have chosen to link privatisation and Medicare,” he told ABC radio.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/labor-shouldn-t-run-medicare-scare-greens/1d655003-4cb1-4257-b4d9-2e344217620d
“There is a narrative that you can’t catch Covid if you are vaccinated (possibly encouraged by pollies and media and the emphasis on vax figures), but it’s not so.”
***
Yeah even when I’m double vaxxed I’m going to be keeping masks handy and chucking one on until this thing really simmers down I reckon. But at the same time I’m not sure how effective they are. Was walking into the shops the other day with a mask on properly but when I passed by someone meters away smoking a cigarette I somehow managed to get some second hand smoke through the mask. Disgusting. It was only a tiny bit but to a former smoker such as myself that smell is unmistakable. If someone’s second hand smoke can make it though a mask then Covid can too.
‘Alpha Zero says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 1:15 pm
Boerwar/Sceptic,
The first 3 UK cartoons from todays collection were all about this issue.’
———————-
Yes, I had noticed. Thank you for your cartoon round up, much appreciated. I looked at this morning’s lot and had the (unoriginal) thought that Johnson’s co-ordinated timing on the release of physical and political faeces was a gift to the cartoonists.
Isn’t verballing the Heir to the Throne lese majesty?
“This is it in a nutshell. Labor was in a battle trying to win the 2016 federal election campaign. And what does Greens leader Richard Di Natalie do? He starts calling out Labor’s campaign on Medicare as a scare campaign. Right in the election campaign when Labor was trying to dislodge the Federal Liberal government.”
***
That’s not what happened at all. The Greens offered to work with Labor before the 2016 Election. RDN extended the olive branch to Shorten but Bill had other ideas…
Bill Shorten rules out joint climate policy process with Greens if Labor wins power
Bill Shorten has declared Labor will run its own race on climate change, and will “listen” but not replicate Julia Gillard’s joint policy process with the Greens in any minority government scenario after the election.
In an interview with Guardian Australia on the campaign trail this week, the Labor leader rebuffed a recent overture from the Greens leader Richard Di Natale to revive the process that applied in the 43rd parliament where the parties worked together to produce the clean energy package.
“Richard would say that wouldn’t he? So, who cares? Richard is looking for relevance at the moment,” Shorten said. “I don’t blame him for doing that, it’s legitimate, but I’m going to lead a Labor government”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/bill-shorten-rules-out-joint-climate-policy-process-with-greens-if-labor-wins-power
In all the photos from Morrison’s trip, I can’t remember seeing one where the other person is talking.
Dandy Murray at 1:13 pm
What ! When did this start happening ?………checks ‘blocked list’………….empty,.no names on it. The mystery deepens. If I had seen it I would definitely have had a look, if only because I would have mistaken it for something about The Simpsons.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 1:33 pm
Prince Charles was. His eyes were screaming “Get me out of here!” .
Boerwarsays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 1:13 pm
Tolls are a de facto form of carbon tax on fossil fuel vehicles.
Excellent stuff, IMO.
How so?
Are electric vehicles exempt?
poroti,
But they weren’t aimed at Morrison. 😆
Granny Anny @ #178 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 12:19 pm
They’re the real fascists. Think we can get the anti-vaxxers motivated enough to protest?
P,
Over maybe 6 years…. but that’s no excuse!
Just realised that Adam Bandt was on Q&A last night and I missed it! Mon dieu!
Must watch on iView: https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2104H039S00
A request for information:
When you are called up to sit on the jury for the High Court of Australia for a Criminal case, is it normal to try and find eligible people specifically for one case?
And what sort of criminal case could be predicted to take six months: Criminal negligence on the part of a corporation? Are there likely to gory pictures like my police prosecutor friend carried around in his briefcase? Can I expect to have recurring nightmares?
I looked up the lists for today for Sydney to try and get an idea, but no jury trials.
However I did notice a Barilaro v. Shanks on this morning’s list.
Dandy Murray at 1:58 pm
My eyeballs are now primed and fully ‘lerted’ for ‘Simpson’ sightings.
“That’s not what happened at all. The Greens offered to work with Labor before the 2016 Election. RDN extended the olive branch to Shorten but Bill had other ideas…”
Just how gullible would you have to be think that this helps your case as a Greens supporter?
The Greens political leader making public pronouncements about working together with Labor on anything during an election campaign (letalone climate change policy) is as cynical as directly undermining Labor’s campaign against the Liberal government
Seriously, this is three years after Labor was thrown out in a big part because of the climate change policy negotiated with the Greens when the parliament was hung
FFS!
Tim Smith has called for many high profile people’s resignations. His confected outrage collected the scalp of former Deputy Chief Health Officer Dr Annaliese van Diemen who posted
Sudden arrival of an invader from another land, decimating populations, creating terror. Forces the population to make enormous sacrifices & completely change how they live in order to survive. COVID19 or Cook 1770?
— Dr Annaliese van Diemen (@annaliesevd) April 29, 2020
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 1:42 pm
Boerwarsays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 1:13 pm
Tolls are a de facto form of carbon tax on fossil fuel vehicles.
Excellent stuff, IMO.
How so?
Are electric vehicles exempt?’
—————————-
Of course not. Nor should they be. Vehicle construction and tollway construction involve vast amounts of CO2 emissions. But you knew that.
Plus, when EV penetration is less than 1%, then tolls are a form of carbon tax on fossil fuel vehicles.
“The Greens political leader making public pronouncements about working together with Labor on anything during an election campaign (letalone climate change policy) is as cynical as directly undermining Labor’s campaign against the Liberal government
Seriously, this is three years after Labor was thrown out in a big part because of the climate change policy negotiated with the Greens when the parliament was hung”
***
What nonsense. The only time Australia has had serious climate policy was when the Greens were there making it happen. People who are serious about tackling the climate crisis want Labor to stop teaming up with the Coalition and backing coal and gas and start working with the Greens instead to address the problem.
Labor was defeated at the 2013 Election because they spent three years at war with themselves over who should lead their party. You can pretend that never happened and try to shift the blame to the Greens all you want but that just doesn’t hold any water.
Douglas and Milko:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 2:02 pm
[‘A request for information:
When you are called up to sit on the jury for the High Court of Australia for a Criminal case, is it normal to try and find eligible people specifically for one case?’]
The HC is an appellate court; it doesn’t conduct trials.
[The HC is an appellate court; it doesn’t conduct trials]
It does but very rarely eg Malcolm Roberts citzenship.
There is a jury box in court 3 in the High Court building in Canberra but no one has sat in it as part of a jury, I think.