This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Is this Firefox a troll or a fool?
1. RDN knows that Labor cannot politically be agreeing ahead of an election to agree to a “joint climate policy process” with the Greens
2. Given (1), it is axiomatic that RDN making such a public offer is a cynical play not a sincere “olive branch”
Regardless of political persuasion, anybody who doesn’t recognise either one or two is demonstrating political ignorance putting themselves beyond the capability of credible input
The Greens political party’s whole political project is fuelled by this kind of naivety whether it be innocent or wilful
Open borders v zero covid policy debate in China:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238107.shtml
[‘It’s a masterpiece: The dizzying spin in Morrison’s plan to reach net zero.
The more our politicians are full of bulldust – known euphemistically as “spin” – the more they rely on our short attention span. They make a grand announcement that doesn’t bear close scrutiny, but the media caravan moves on before it’s had time for a closer look. Well, not this time.
I’ve been looking more closely at the Plan to achieve net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 that Scott Morrison unveiled last week, shortly before jetting off to Glasgow.
It’s full of . . . hyperbole. A masterpiece of the spin doctor’s art. A document carefully crafted to mislead.
For someone claiming to have a Plan to achieve a difficult objective over the next 29 years, it was surprising to see Morrison claiming the Plan contained no new policy measures. By implication, no additional cost to taxpayers.
That’s true – and untrue. We know, for instance, that Morrison had to promise to spend a lot of money just to get the National Party’s permission to commit to achieving net zero by 2050.
So, what policy promises did Morrison make, and how much will they cost? We weren’t told. They weren’t mentioned in the 130-page plan. We’re told we’ll be told sometime before the election.
Crafted to mislead:
The Plan says Morrison’s “technology investment roadmap” will “guide” more than $20 billion of government investment in low emissions technology to 2030. So, further spending of $20 billion?
If that’s what you thought, the spin merchants would be pleased. They love giving the impression we can have our cake and eat it. But no, this is not new policy. All the $20 billion has already been announced.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-s-a-masterpiece-the-dizzying-spin-in-morrison-s-plan-to-reach-net-zero-20211104-p595zm.html
Yes, Morrison’s all feathers, no meat. And what’s worse for him is that the punters are starting to see through this hollow marketer.
I don’t know whether the drunk-driver, Liberal politician should resign or not, but what is obvious is the fact that the issue is being debated in “should he/shouldn’t he” terms just shows how low the integrity bar is now…..
The naughty bit in politics is being caught (as much as the naughty act) and then seeing just how one can tough it out as if nothing has happened…….
No wonder cynicism is the main attitude by most to politics and politicians……..
Whether ’tis better to have strategic clarity or strategic ambiguity?
That is the question.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238180.shtml
Is Richard Di Natale some feather duster bloke who built himself a wealthy inner urban pad?
”
porotisays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 12:49 pm
The idea that Charlie would be a fanboi of Rum Corp style ‘development’ is almost as big a pile of manure as the beliefs of the Hillsong happy clappers.
”
poroti
Rumour has it that as soon as Morrison said Prince Charles likes NSW Infrastructure projects and also knows the 2 people who implemented it, “Whoppers” were sold like hotcakes in burger joints.. 🙂
Labor seems to be getting a bit more worried by the Greens than usual.
I wonder if this is because they are (at least according to some here who claim to be “in the know”) finally about to release a climate policy?
Boerwarsays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 2:27 pm
So the only targeting is at those who can afford to use it, nothing to do with the fuel source of the vehicle.
The mind boggles that this man was admitted to bail. The chances of him decamping were around 99.9%, given he faces life in gaol, and clearly has the means to finance a life of the run:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-05/nsw-police-raid-safe-houses-linked-to-mostafa-baluch/100596514
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 12:43 pm
Ven says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 12:34 pm
______________________
Petty
”
Are you projecting yourself? No need to. 🙂
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 2:59 pm
…
So the only targeting is at those who can afford to use it, nothing to do with the fuel source of the vehicle.
————————
Just to clarify my main point for those who are being confused by BiTJ:
Tollways are a de facto carbon tax on fossil fuel vehicles.
Mavis says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 3:00 pm
The mind boggles that this man was admitted to bail.
…’
—————————-
New South Wales?
“Is this Firefox a troll or a fool?”
***
Neither. I’m just someone who takes the climate emergency seriously and recognises that Labor is a big part of the problem. Every single time Labor teams up with the Coalition to back coal, gas, and prop up the fossil fuel industry, they are contributing to the problem. Those who refuse to accept that reality have their heads in the sand just like the climate deniers.
Anyone who thinks that Labor is better off backing the Coalition and the fossil fuel industry rather than working the Greens to tackle the climate emergency is living in the past.
At least you seem to admit that Shorten refused RDN’s genuine offer because he was more concerned about his own electoral fortunes than he was about the climate emergency. As it turned out, Bill’s policy of sitting on the fence and his refusal to work with the Greens didn’t end up helping him much, did it.
Never had to get it myself but there was a vaccine that all overseas travellers from Oz had to get to leave the country, can’t even remember what it was.
Point is, it left a scar on your arm. Imagine the Instagram Generation amping up about a vaccine that scarred the sacred body beautiful?
Mavis and Shellbell,
Thanks for your input. I am an idiot. I said High Court, but it is actually The Federal Court of Australia, in Phillip Street Sydney.
I am still not much wiser about what sort of criminal case they would hear that they envision would take 6 months.
“Player Onesays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 2:58 pm
Labor seems to be getting a bit more worried by the Greens than usual.
I wonder if this is because they are (at least according to some here who claim to be “in the know”) finally about to release a climate policy?”
What? Who? Where?
Are you referring to actual Labor officials or people commenting here?
The Revisionist @ #217 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 3:06 pm
Just a few PB posters. Due any day now, apparently. Labor was for some reason just waiting till after COP26. Why they would do that was not made clear.
“Is Richard Di Natale some feather duster bloke who built himself a wealthy inner urban pad?”
***
RDN is a farmer who lives in the country…
“Is this Firefox a troll or a fool?”
Firefox: “insert wilfully ignorant rant”
Narrator: Firefox is a fool
“Narrator: Firefox is a fool”
***
Ouch!
‘Firefox says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 3:08 pm
“Is Richard Di Natale some feather duster bloke who built himself a wealthy inner urban pad?”
***
RDN is a farmer who lives in the country…’
——————————
Did he build himself a luxury pad in the inner urbs?
White collar crime of some description, I am guessing, D&M
A “Coming Out of the Cave” party on Straya Day in Westralia ?
https://thewest.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-premier-reveals-wa-plan-for-border-to-re-open-to-domestic-and-international-travellers-c-4441367
.
Boerwar:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 3:03 pm
[‘New South Wales?’]
Yes, and by a NSW magistrate:
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/crime/police-seize-range-rover-in-hunt-for-millionaire-sydney-restaurateur-mostafa-baluch/news-story/57f3c11898d57d6855b87d3d842ec473
Why does Labor have work with the Greens on policy? They have one seat in the House of Reps. Does that mean Labor has to work on policy with Centre alliance, United Australia Party, and Katter Australia Party as well?
Greens certainly haven’t shown much interest in working with Labor either. When they teamed up with the Liberals to defeat Labor’s CPRS in the Senate in 2009. Then have crocodile tears suggesting Labor rebuffed Greens approach to work them before an election. Which was more looking for relevance or attention rather then any sincere approach on policy.
William, if you’re around: I don’t know if you’ve been informed by them but I have been in contact with PressPatron and they’ve resolved the issue that arose last week. It was a caching problem they’ve fixed. I shall resume my donations to you next week.
Once I see Steelydan is online, I will inform him it’s fine for him to do so as well.
Douglas and Milko:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 3:05 pm
Noted – an easy mistake.
“Did he build himself a luxury pad in the inner urbs?”
***
No, he demolished an old house and built an environmentally-friendly replacement in it’s place. What’s wrong with that? He lives on a farm with his family near the Otway Ranges – almost 3 hours away from Melbourne.
Dog’s Breakfast at 3:04 pm
That’ll be the Smallpox vaccine. No doubt in these “more enlightened” times there would be a large antivax campaign claiming the scar was the “Mark of the beast” or some such similar bullshit.
“The Revisionist @ #217 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 3:06 pm
Are you referring to actual Labor officials or people commenting here?
Just a few PB posters. Due any day now, apparently. Labor was for some reason just waiting till after COP26. Why they would do that was not made clear.”
Well, I would have thought you can’t really conflate people criticising the Greens on a blog with “Labor”. That’s actually crazy dumb
I am a Labor voter but actually came on to the blog the other day to get a feed of fall out from Scomo’s disaster. I have zero connection to Labor party and the intentions of its federal party
On the “Labor making clear” the reasons for when they release things, again, why do they need to?
Australian’s who are keen for their country to take serious action on climate change have one clear necessary outcome that they should be on board with – a Labor government and the removal of a climate change inaction Coalition government.
This has been true at the previous elections. Again, anyone who doesn’t grasp this at this point is a political dumb dumb.
The Greens have campaigned against a Labor opposition at the last two elections that have left a global obstructionist to climate change action in power.
I think they are a historical disgrace.
Boerwar
“Why does Labor have work with the Greens on policy? They have one seat in the House of Reps. Does that mean Labor has to work on policy with Centre alliance, United Australia Party, and Katter Australia Party as well?”
***
Because the Greens are the only party that takes the climate emergency seriously. CA, UAP, and KAP do not, although it’s probably unfair to lump CA in with the other two.
The CPRS! Ah yes, out comes the dead horse for another good flogging by the Laborites. Of course the reality is that is was Labor who tried to team up with the Coalition instead of working with the Greens, yet again. The Greens offered to work with Labor to improve the CPRS but Labor refused and instead went over to the Libs and tried to get their help instead. The failure of the CPRS is entirely on Labor.
The Greens’ policy of the ETS was implemented and was working. We delivered. Unfortunately, Labor then gifted Abbott power after three long years of civil war, but that’s another story.
The Revisionist @ #231 Friday, November 5th, 2021 – 3:24 pm
Labor – and some Labor supporters – are crazy dumb in their attitude towards the Greens. Labor need Green preferences to win an election, and yet all they ever seem to do – and I am talking both Labor MPs and Labor supporters here – is whinge about the Greens at every opportunity.
For the record, I am not a Green. The only party I have ever been a member of is Labor.
Dumb de dumb, dumb-dumb
…Labor needs to win power of its own accord, despite the Green’s campaigning against them, so that the one Green lower house member can implement his climate change policy….
…Dumb-dumb
Firefox
For a very good reason. It was done to make it a bipartisan reform and as such one that would expect to survive a change in government. No it was not perfect but there were some measures in it which gave it real teeth after a about 4-5 years. No it did not go as far as the Greens wanted but to try and make it bipartisan was the damned right thing to do.
“poroti@bigpond.comsays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 3:42 pm
Firefox
Of course the reality is that is was Labor who tried to team up with the Coalition instead of working with the Greens, yet again
For a very good reason. It was done to make it a bipartisan reform and as such one that would expect to survive a change in government. No it was not perfect but there were some measures in it which gave it real teeth after a about 4-5 years. No it did not go as far as the Greens wanted but to try and make it bipartisan was the damned right thing to do.”
But you are missing the point. It is not the outcome that matters, its the perception of moral superiority that matters.
I remember years ago hearing an interview with the UN or WHO guy (I forget which) who was involved in the smallpox eradication program.
It was all done in the Cold War era when there was much suspicion of international agencies in many countries but the nature of smallpox and the terrible scars it left broke down the barriers and allowed the medical teams access to places others might not get to go.
He told an anecdote about some high up UN sceptic who told them that if they ever eradicated smallpox he would eat the tyres off their car.
When the last smallpox sufferers were indentified and treated and the team were in a position to declare smallpox gone they loaded four tyres on a pallet and wrapped the lot in plastic and shipped it to the official.
I well recall my smallpox vax back in the 70s. Reactions varied but my arm hurt like hell for a week or so.
And there are any number of places in the world now you cannot visit without a yellow fever vax.
Try rocking up at a border having visited Zambia and telling the officials there that you don’t believe in vaccination.
‘Firefox says:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 3:22 pm
“Did he build himself a luxury pad in the inner urbs?”
***
No, he demolished an old house and built an environmentally-friendly replacement in it’s place. What’s wrong with that? He lives on a farm with his family near the Otway Ranges – almost 3 hours away from Melbourne.’
———————
So, at a time when there are many homeless people this guy has TWO dwellings: one a nice inner urban luxury pad in a fabulously high-priced inner urban real estate and the other some sort of farm somewhere in the Otways? Rather than having Din make noises designed to try to reduce Labor’s chances of winning the next election, my suggestion is to make DiN the Greens shadow spokesperson for homelessness.
“Dumb de dumb, dumb-dumb”
***
Cutting edge political analysis this.
Labor can’t win power “of it’s own accord” – they are totally reliant on Greens’ preferences to be even remotely competitive, let alone win. Additionally, they will also need to work with the Greens in the Senate if they hope to get anything done without having to team up with their mates in the Coalition.
I wonder what the focus groups are telling the Liberals ATM?
1. Don’t trust Morrison.
2. Embarrassing Australia internationally.
3. Good at making international enemies.
4. Pathetic at managing subs contracts.
5. Can’t be trusted.
6. Secretive.
7. Anti-women.
8. Kiss up, kick down.
9. Claims credit for what others have achieved.
10. Poor disaster management.
And that is just the list of compliments the focus groups will come up with.
The BCG (tuberculosis) vaccine can leave a scar.
Dutton or Frydenberg?
That is the question.
Other possible traits of Morrison are:
1. weirdly religious
2. unlikeable
3. hates western australians and victorians
4. is mates with disasters like Johnson, Trump and Berejiklian
5. likes holidaying while Aussies are in bad trouble
“No it did not go as far as the Greens wanted but to try and make it bipartisan was the damned right thing to do.”
***
The CPRS was a terrible policy that locked in failure. The only thing Labor trying to pass it with the Libs achieved was the knifing of Turnbull and the rise of Abbott. Trying to pass weak climate policy with the Coalition was not the right thing to do at all!! It was already woefully inadequate as it was and the Libs still didn’t agree to it and knifed Turnbull over it! It was one of the biggest mistakes Rudd ever made.
Firefoxsays:
Friday, November 5, 2021 at 3:32 pm
But that doesn’t mean you will get the numbers for legislation to pass both Houses.
What Labor and the Greens agree to may be completely untenable to the majority of the Parliament.
When Morrison meets his maker, I think even it will question his bona fides. But he (Morrison) must get great strength from his firmly held belief that everything he does is for his diety. I personally think he should be scheduled, the latest iteration of his plan for carbon neutrality by 2050 attesting to his insanity.
Chris Bowen is apparently Speers’ guest on Insiders on Sunday. Perhaps some further information on Labor’s climate policy will be provided then.
This is quite an interesting story.
While reading accounts of the Battle of the Java Sea I came across a snippet that Commander Binford took it upon himself to lead the US destroyer division of the Allied Fleet away from the battle. The remaining allied fleet units, including HMAS Perth, remained in the fight at the time. In other circumstances Binford may well have been charged with desertion in the face of the enemy. (Captain Bode of the USS Chicago comitted suicide when the Chicago charged away from the Battle of Savo Island in similar circumstances. This was the battle in which HMAS Canberra was sunk.)
Binford had previously been engaged in the Battle of Badung (then Badoeng) Strait.
Binford got various medals for the Battle of the Badung Strait and the Battle of the Java Sea. The citations for the significant medals are itemized in the link below.
The interesting thing is that the main facts in the citations bear almost no relation to what really happened, and to what Binford really achieved.
https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/research-guides/modern-biographical-files-ndl/modern-bios-b/binford-thomas-howell.html
The HC has dismissed an appeal brought by Johnson & Johnson for the damages awarded by the Federal Court for its pelvic mesh.