Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election

A good poll result from Labor in Victoria, an even better election result for Labor in Queensland, and only four candidates come forward for the Groom by-election.

The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 44%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%. This compares with 57.3-42.7 at Labor’s landslide win in 2018, when the primary votes were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%. Personal ratings are good for Daniel Andrews (65% approval and 32% disapproval) and disastrous for Liberal leader Michael O’Brien (26% approval and 53% disapproval).

The poll nonetheless found that 55% thought it fair to hold Daniel Andrews responsible for the second COVID-19 wave, compared with 40% for not fair. Fifty per cent believed Andrews had been honest and transparent about the hotel quarantine failure against 43% for not honest and transparent; 53% said Victoria was heading in the right direction versus 39% who said it is “time for change”. The poll was conducted from October 29 to November from a sample of 1241.

UPDATE: Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.

In real election news, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has been completing preference distributions for the October 31 state election, and while the numbers haven’t been officially published, Antony Green relates that luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin. These seats have been gained from the LNP with respective margins of 11 and 79 votes, pending LNP requests for recounts.

Confirmation of these results would leave Labor with 52 seats in a parliament of 93, a net gain of four compared with the 2017 result. South Brisbane was lost to the Greens (6.0% margin, 9.5% swing), while five were gained from the LNP Bundaberg (by a 0.0% margin with a 4.2% swing), Nicklin (a 0.1% margin and a 5.4% swing), Caloundra (a 2.5% margin and a 5.9% swing), Hervey Bay (a 2.2% margin and an 11.3% swing) and Pumicestone (a 5.1% margin and a 6.0% swing). These are Labor’s first ever wins in Nicklin and Caloundra, both of which are on the Sunshine Coast.

The LNP is duly reduced from 38 seats to 33, unless you count their recovery of Whitsunday after its previous member was expelled from the party mid-term. Their one piece of good news from late counting was that they managed to retain the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin by 310 votes, a 0.3% margin against a swing to Labor of 3.0% (David Crisafulli will be chosen as the party’s new leader unopposed at a party room meeting today). South Brisbane increases the Greens from one to two, with the party having easily its 2017 gain of Maiwar from the LNP, while Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation achieved status quo results of three seats and one respectively, as did independents with Sandy Bolton comfortably retaining Noosa.

Official results are naturally available from the ECQ; the numbers on my live results facility are emphatically not official, in that I have preserved them as they were a week ago before the ECQ removed the indicative two-candidate preferred counts. This means both the booth-level two-candidate preferred results and preference flow by candidate breakdowns are preserved, albeit in not entirely complete form.

Finally, while the attention of most of us has been firmly elsewhere, the process for the November 28 Groom by-election has continued chugging along, with nominations having been declared last Friday. The by-election has attracted a remarkably thin field of four candidates, which somewhat to my surprise includes one from Labor: Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. The preselection of LNP candidate Garth Hamilton was related here. The other two candidates are from the Liberal Democrats and Sustainable Australia – as well as there being no One Nation presence, this must be the first time a while that the Greens have left a federal contest uncontested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

635 comments on “Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election”

Comments Page 11 of 13
1 … 10 11 12 13

  1. Mark Butler had the impossible task of selling a dogs breakfast of a climate/energy policy dished up by the fossil fuel cartels unions – Shortens AWU being one of them.

  2. lizzie @ #479 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 1:42 pm

    Trudy McIntosh (Sky pol reporter)
    @TrudyMcIntosh
    ·
    17m
    Eyes Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton NOT thanked by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel in his contact tracing report – he’s the only chief health officer who isn’t acknowledged- unclear why

    Brett Sutton is a Victorian legend.

  3. State of Origin decider can be played in front of capacity 52,500 crowd in Brisbane

    NSW’s task of winning this year’s State of Origin series just got tougher with Suncorp Stadium set to be at 100% capacity for next week’s decider. Queensland premier Annastacia Palasczcuk revealed on Friday her government was easing several Covid-19 restrictions from 4pm Tuesday, including the limit on open-air stadiums to operate at 75% capacity

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/nov/13/state-of-origin-decider-can-be-played-in-front-of-capacity-52500-crowd

    So it’s up from 75% to 100%. It would be nice to see the modelling on that, but I assume there is some. As for NSW carriers, I think Sydney is still on the restricted list for entry to Qld.

  4. FS
    There is a different between going to a normal pub and a strip joint.

    It would be a different story if Morrison was looking at or gesturing at the lady’s boobs but in that photo he has his back to her and she is lending in to him.

  5. ABC News
    @abcnews
    ·
    54m
    #BREAKING: South Australia will re-open its border to Victoria on December 1. Travellers from Victoria will not be required to quarantine.

    Can’t stand being without us !

  7. The woman with her arm around Scomo in Tassie is the wife (had six kids) of an old friend of my partner. He’s into eco tourist development and entertainment venue startups. It was posted on her Facebook a week or two ago.

  8. Next leader – Clare O’Neill is the one to watch. She is locking in the conservative side of the ALP Right as a base.. But she is also young and generally progressive and very articulate. But most importantly a bit fresh. Charmers is boring compared with her.

  10. Just heard an AMA rep from WA. He is very concerned about WA opening border as he said they are unprepared, with no systems in place to match NSW or Vic. People are very relaxed and seem unaware of the dangers. He said it’s up to the gov to have done much more in preparation, but bureaucracy…

  11. lizzie @ #509 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 3:30 pm

    Just heard an AMA rep from WA. He is very concerned about WA opening border as he said they are unprepared, with no systems in place to match NSW or Vic. People are very relaxed and seem unaware of the dangers. He said it’s up to the gov to have done much more in preparation, but bureaucracy…

    I’m always a bit skeptical of AMA mouthpieces. But if this is true, I can only shake my head in wonder.

  12. Clare O’Neill could turn out to be the Liberals worst nightmare because they can’t attack her career background because its what many of them wish they had and she has the personality to put them under pressure.

  13. Historyintime @ #507 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 3:26 pm

    Next leader – Clare O’Neill is the one to watch. She is locking in the conservative side of the ALP Right as a base.. But she is also young and generally progressive and very articulate. But most importantly a bit fresh. Charmers is boring compared with her.

    Mundo picked Clare O’Neill a while back as the most likely female leader by a mile.
    You’re right, Jim is a blob – a smart blob – by comparison.
    Clare O’Neill leading the federal ALP would be a game changer.

  14. Spray

    He said they don’t have Covid safe regulations in place for businesses, and haven’t paid enough attention to training health workers. No track and tracing like eastern states and no preparation for mask-wearing if there is an outbreak.

    No doubt WA bludgers will want to comment.

  15. The prince of “no comment”. I wonder whose “learnings” he’s sharing.

    @JulianAndrew63
    1h
    Morrison asked, re US coronavirus “Are you hopeful that the situation in the US will improve under a new approach from Biden.”
    Morrison: “Well look, I wouldn’t comment on that, other than to say we are sharing our learnings…”

  17. lizzie @ #514 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 3:39 pm

    Spray

    He said they don’t have Covid safe regulations in place for businesses, and haven’t paid enough attention to training health workers. No track and tracing like eastern states and no preparation for mask-wearing if there is an outbreak.

    No doubt WA bludgers will want to comment.

    Surely that can’t be true. Hope it’s not. Was kind of looking forward to seeing my kids some time.

  20. BK “With undivided attention to the issue, Trump continues to turn the coronavirus corner with 161500 new cases yesterday!”

    About 1/2000 Americans. How many days can that continue?

  22. I suspect Miller, the AMA guy from WA mentioned earlier, is working towards bigger and better things politically….a new Dr Nelson perhaps?
    We in WA have been lucky enough to have his prognostications for most of this year……………
    For some of us, these comments have had nothing much to add in a constructive way, and on one or two occasions, he has had retract some of his more assertive (critical of the McGowan government) comments……I don’t think he is working towards representing the Labor party any time soon……

  24. Rick
    @colonelhogans
    ·
    7h
    Bronwyn Bishop. Only spent 25 years in parliament, but is receiving $700 per day for life, then goes on a rant about Labor being socialists? What the fuck is $700 a day from the taxpayer? Where in the world can you get $700 a day for life of the taxpayer for only 25 years?

    And she wasn’t even a good Speaker.

  25. announcement 3 weeks ago

    Following a national cabinet meeting on Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said 140 extra people would be able to arrive into Western Australia, and 150 more in Queensland, from next month.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-weekly-cap-on-international-arrivals-to-australia-will-be-increased-from-next-month

    announcement today

    The cap on Australians returning from overseas will be increased by 150 additional places per day in Queensland, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced, as he reiterated the government’s intention to “look after Australians first”.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/an-additional-150-australians-will-be-able-to-return-from-overseas-each-day-under-increased-travel-cap

    The weekly cap on international arrivals was 6000, so if my math holds up Qld will be taking an extra 1050 per week into quarantine. I don’t know what other states are taking, nor what Qld’s current intake is. But at roughly 7000 per week it will take at least 5 weeks to get the remaining 35,000 home.

  26. “Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    · 12h
    “REPORT: DOMINION DELETED 2.7 MILLION TRUMP VOTES NATIONWIDE. DATA ANALYSIS FINDS 221,000 PENNSYLVANIA VOTES SWITCHED FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BIDEN. 941,000 TRUMP VOTES DELETED. STATES USING DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS SWITCHED 435,000 VOTES FROM TRUMP TO BIDEN.” @ChanelRion @OANN”

    Won’t be long and he’ll be claiming he got 300 percent of the vote and no one voted for Biden.

  28. Perparim @ #417 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 3:13 pm

    “Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    · 12h
    “REPORT: DOMINION DELETED 2.7 MILLION TRUMP VOTES NATIONWIDE. DATA ANALYSIS FINDS 221,000 PENNSYLVANIA VOTES SWITCHED FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BIDEN. 941,000 TRUMP VOTES DELETED. STATES USING DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS SWITCHED 435,000 VOTES FROM TRUMP TO BIDEN.” @ChanelRion @OANN”

    Won’t be long and he’ll be claiming he got 300 percent of the vote and no one voted for Biden.

    When I read counts that end in lots of zeroes like that it makes me suspicious. Computer systems keep exact numbers, not “to the nearest 1000”.

  31. Spray

    When does Victoria expect to start taking international arrivals?

    Good question. Victoria may be a little gun shy right now, but I would have thought Victoria also has a robust tracing system. These weekly national cabinet meetings seem to be when that sort of thing is decided. (Or is it when things get announced?) Maybe we’ll learn next week.

  33. [‘President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has narrowly won Arizona, capturing the state’s 11 electoral votes and strengthening his Electoral College margin as President Trump continues to make baseless attacks on the vote counts favoring Mr. Biden.

    Mr. Biden, whose margin in Arizona is currently about 11,000 votes, or 0.3 percentage points, is the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since President Bill Clinton in 1996. Four years ago, Mr. Trump won the state by 3.5 percentage points.

    That Arizona — the home of the late Senator John McCain and Senator Barry Goldwater, a founder of the 20th century conservative political movement and the 1964 Republican presidential nominee — was in play for Democrats at all is remarkable. Before the state voted for Mr. Clinton, the last Democrat it had supported for president was Harry S. Truman in 1948.’]

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/12/us/joe-biden-trump?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  35. Late Riser @ #483 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 1:49 pm

    Kirky @ #475 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 12:37 pm

    I might be as thick as a brick but how in gods name is food vans related to voter fraud. Am I missing something here?

    There weren’t enough food vans to feed everyone, so they could not actually have been food vans. So they must have been voter fraud…or something.

    Donald Trump’s next career needs to be writing fairy stories. He’ll kill it.

  36. Mavis @ #532 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 4:46 pm

    [‘President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has narrowly won Arizona, capturing the state’s 11 electoral votes and strengthening his Electoral College margin as President Trump continues to make baseless attacks on the vote counts favoring Mr. Biden.

    Mr. Biden, whose margin in Arizona is currently about 11,000 votes, or 0.3 percentage points, is the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since President Bill Clinton in 1996. Four years ago, Mr. Trump won the state by 3.5 percentage points.

    That Arizona — the home of the late Senator John McCain and Senator Barry Goldwater, a founder of the 20th century conservative political movement and the 1964 Republican presidential nominee — was in play for Democrats at all is remarkable. Before the state voted for Mr. Clinton, the last Democrat it had supported for president was Harry S. Truman in 1948.’]

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/12/us/joe-biden-trump?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    They had a fantastic standard bearer for the Senate in Mark Kelly as well, which would have helped enormously I reckon.

  37. Mavissays: Friday, November 13, 2020 at 4:46 pm

    [‘President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has narrowly won Arizona

    Late Risersays: Friday, November 13, 2020 at 4:49 pm

    What Trump said about John McCain might have something to do with it.

    Arizona — the home of the late Senator John McCain

    ********************************************************************

    Meghan McCain dunks hard on Trump after networks call Arizona for Joe Biden

    Meghan McCain recalled Trump trashing her father for being a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

    In light of tonight’s news….

    *sorry I had to, the meme is too funny – — Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain

  38. Have you heard the news?

    There’s media speculation that next week’s NSW State Budget will include $100 vouchers for punters to spend at your favourite restaurants and cafes.

    The NSW government wants to give hospitality venues a shot in the arm, to help them recover from the pandemic. Sounds good, right?

    But wait, there’s a massive problem. Do we really want taxpayer money going to line the pockets of known wage thieves?

    FIND A GOOD VENUE HERE

    Over 80% of hospitality workers have experienced wage theft, including at some of Sydney’s best known venues. Even higher numbers of young women in hospo have been sexually harassed.

    That’s why our friends at Hospo Voice have created FairPlate.org.au, a venue review site that helps shine a light on the good, the bad and the downright ugly in our hospitality industry.

    Across Australia, hospitality workers have left thousands of reviews to help you find venues that respect their staff, and so you know which places steal wages and treat workers like crap.

    VISIT FAIRPLATE.ORG.AU

  40. https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1327135087683637249
    Antony Green @AntonyGreenABC
    Bundaberg re-count sees Labor win by 9 votes, down from 11 on first count. #qldpol #qldvotes
    5:23 PM · Nov 13, 2020

    https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1327136297618698248
    Antony Green @AntonyGreenABC
    And Labor wins Nicklin re-count by 85 votes so Labor finishes with 52 seats, four up for on the 2017 election. #qldvotes #qldpol
    5:28 PM · Nov 13, 2020

  46. And she wasn’t even a good Speaker.

    As Speaker Bronwyn Bishop proved incompetent and hopelessly biased. As with her leadership aspirations in the 1990s, her ambition greatly exceeded her ability. I understand that she appears on Sky TV as a right wing culture warrior. That’s probably the only thing she’s good at.

  48. I’ve missed the announcements, but is Scotty setting up a separate National Emergency C’tee of some sort, so that he can appoint more of his pet Liberals into lucrative positions?

  50. And furthermore

    Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ·
    1m bit confused by this ABC radio news report that the Commonwealth will increase executive power to send in the troops (which overrides reserve powers of the states) but won’t procure more aerial firefighting capability because that would override the role of the states.

Comments Page 11 of 13
1 … 10 11 12 13

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *