Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election

A good poll result from Labor in Victoria, an even better election result for Labor in Queensland, and only four candidates come forward for the Groom by-election.

The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 44%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%. This compares with 57.3-42.7 at Labor’s landslide win in 2018, when the primary votes were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%. Personal ratings are good for Daniel Andrews (65% approval and 32% disapproval) and disastrous for Liberal leader Michael O’Brien (26% approval and 53% disapproval).

The poll nonetheless found that 55% thought it fair to hold Daniel Andrews responsible for the second COVID-19 wave, compared with 40% for not fair. Fifty per cent believed Andrews had been honest and transparent about the hotel quarantine failure against 43% for not honest and transparent; 53% said Victoria was heading in the right direction versus 39% who said it is “time for change”. The poll was conducted from October 29 to November from a sample of 1241.

UPDATE: Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.

In real election news, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has been completing preference distributions for the October 31 state election, and while the numbers haven’t been officially published, Antony Green relates that luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin. These seats have been gained from the LNP with respective margins of 11 and 79 votes, pending LNP requests for recounts.

Confirmation of these results would leave Labor with 52 seats in a parliament of 93, a net gain of four compared with the 2017 result. South Brisbane was lost to the Greens (6.0% margin, 9.5% swing), while five were gained from the LNP Bundaberg (by a 0.0% margin with a 4.2% swing), Nicklin (a 0.1% margin and a 5.4% swing), Caloundra (a 2.5% margin and a 5.9% swing), Hervey Bay (a 2.2% margin and an 11.3% swing) and Pumicestone (a 5.1% margin and a 6.0% swing). These are Labor’s first ever wins in Nicklin and Caloundra, both of which are on the Sunshine Coast.

The LNP is duly reduced from 38 seats to 33, unless you count their recovery of Whitsunday after its previous member was expelled from the party mid-term. Their one piece of good news from late counting was that they managed to retain the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin by 310 votes, a 0.3% margin against a swing to Labor of 3.0% (David Crisafulli will be chosen as the party’s new leader unopposed at a party room meeting today). South Brisbane increases the Greens from one to two, with the party having easily its 2017 gain of Maiwar from the LNP, while Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation achieved status quo results of three seats and one respectively, as did independents with Sandy Bolton comfortably retaining Noosa.

Official results are naturally available from the ECQ; the numbers on my live results facility are emphatically not official, in that I have preserved them as they were a week ago before the ECQ removed the indicative two-candidate preferred counts. This means both the booth-level two-candidate preferred results and preference flow by candidate breakdowns are preserved, albeit in not entirely complete form.

Finally, while the attention of most of us has been firmly elsewhere, the process for the November 28 Groom by-election has continued chugging along, with nominations having been declared last Friday. The by-election has attracted a remarkably thin field of four candidates, which somewhat to my surprise includes one from Labor: Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. The preselection of LNP candidate Garth Hamilton was related here. The other two candidates are from the Liberal Democrats and Sustainable Australia – as well as there being no One Nation presence, this must be the first time a while that the Greens have left a federal contest uncontested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

635 comments on “Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election”

Comments Page 1 of 13
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  1. Aqualung (from previous thread)

    Its very impressive and there’s a story behind it. China builds high speed rail lines for roughly $30 million (AUD) per kilometre. This is for rail lines that are sitting mostly on viaduct (as you see being built in the video) or in tunnel.

    I’ve talked to the engineers that did this. A couple of years ago I gave a talk here in Newcastle to a group of Hunter region Councils. I took a still from this video as part of my presentation.

    The costings done in 2013 for HSR were bogus. Stuff like they costed a flood plain crossing (viaduct) at $110 million per kilometre – whereas several years later the Kempsey flood plain bridge was built for $65 million per kilometre and its twice as wide a structure as you need for HSR.

    Its not about cheap labour. Its about good design – commonality of elements, automation and economy of scale. Hence the machine you see in the video. And if you want I can take you step by step through the physical design of a HSR line between Sydney and Newcastle and talk about how it would be designed properly – unlike the abortion they put up in 2013.

  2. Kamala moved back to second place 🙂
    Kamala Harris’s win is historic, but the 1st U.S. VP of colour was elected 91 years ago

    Jeanne Eder Rhodes says most people are taken aback when she tells them that Kamala Harris is not the first person of colour to be elected vice-president of the United States.

  3. Jenny Frecklington-Jones@JonesHowdareyou
    So Scott Morrison disrespectfully talked over the top of Anne Ruston.
    For short memories:

    2014: “And that’s precisely what happened—as time after time, Morrison interrupted Triggs or—if she dared to keep speaking—he just spoke over the top of her.”

  4. Cud

    I agree on rail costs. Other countries like France have done both HSR and LRT cheaper than us, despite using well paid, unionised labour, though good technical control of standardisation, design and manufacturing. I travelled on the new Altantique line to Bordeaux, which is superb. For the reported cost of Sydney WestLink we could have built that from Sydney to Albury.

    That being said I think costs are out of control on large Australian transport projects (road and rail) because of poor governance, nepotism, and inadequate engineering and project management skills remaining in State departments.

    In Adelaide the Liberal government recently announced an $8 billion tunnel project. Why? Did they say it will fix Adelaide’s traffic congestion? (No) Did they say it would result in economic growth? (No). So why do it? They are simply continuing Labor’s mistake, to appease a bunch of corporate interests.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Australia’s former ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, says the stoush between the two nations will come at a cost to our living standards, writes Eryk Bagshaw.
    Sure, Australia’s inflation rate is low – but the devil is in the detail explains Greg Jericho.
    Christopher Knaus reports that a body representing thousands of Australian federal police officers has issued a stunning repudiation of the Coalition’s proposed anti-corruption commission, saying it acts as a “protection racket” for government MPs.
    Shane Wright and Paul Sakaal explain how ABS research shows anger at cost of living pressures may be justified given the cost of everyday items.
    Saul Eslake probably didn’t mean to start the week by trashing the reputations of Australia’s bank economists, but he did, writes Michael Pascoe who says, “Basically, our most influential private sector economists can’t be trusted to tell it straight, to be critical of federal government policy when it is warranted. They’ve been nobbled by political pressure.”
    Julie Szego describes Morrison’s responses to the 4 Corners exposé as “a classic Scotty from Marketing pivot.” And she believes it will backfire.
    Whatever leadership ambitions Christian Porter may have had — or others had held for him — evaporated Monday night, writes Niki Savva.
    Michelle Grattan agrees, saying, “In under an hour on Monday night, a red line was likely struck through his name on the list of future Liberal leadership prospects.”
    ABC’s Four Corners on Monday night raised questions about Christian Porter’s personal behaviour. Michelle Fahy reports on the Attorney General’s political integrity and concerns over dealings with multinational arms manufacturer Thales.
    David Crowe reports that a formal complaint against Employment Minister Michaelia Cash has accused her of running a “fake redundancy” process to force an adviser out of her office without fair warning. How could this be? Michaelia is such a nice, gentle person!
    Phil Coorey writes that, with the unrest with the Labor party, there is no clear alternative to Albanese as leader.
    Kevin Rudd may not get a royal commission, but we is getting a Senate inquiry into Australian media ownership and influence.
    According to Alexandra Smith, the NSW government will nearly double the footprint of state’s international network from 11 to 21 offices as part of its pandemic economic recovery.
    Latika Bourke explains how Labor has gone further than the Coalition’s so-called bonk ban by banning ALL MPs from conducting sexual relationships with their staff.
    Everyone is talking about another Liberal – but don’t expect more than a whisper, writes Josh Butler.
    The Age reveals that the expulsions of state ALP members deemed to be fake comes as an investigation into branch stacking in Labor, led by former premier Steve Bracks and former federal MP Jenny Macklin, nears completion.
    Recently resigned CFMMEU national secretary Michael O’Connor has won an appeal to stop John Setka and others from poaching members of his division.
    Parliament’s male-dominated culture has let men off the hook for too long, says Virginia Haussegger. Ouch!
    Rob Harris writes that amid growing unrest over Labor’s climate policies, Joel Fitzgibbon has been supported in his call for MPs to be allowed to speak up on issues affecting their electorates.
    The climate wars are now pulling Labor apart. Yet the price of the Coalition’s new political edge on climate change is an incoherent energy policy that undermines investment in cheaper, cleaner and more reliable power supplies, says the editorial in the AFR.
    The election of Joe Biden as US president will produce political challenges for the Morrison government over climate change. Biden will race ahead rhetorically, even if he actually doesn’t do that much. The challenge to Canberra will be rhetorical, not substantial, but could be tricky, writes Greg Sheridan.
    And John Quiggin says Joe Biden’s win in the U.S. Presidential Election is part of a run of good news for the global climate.,14503
    Simon Crean begins this op-ed with “If the Trump era tells us one thing, it’s that the dangers of misinformation and – more disturbingly – disinformation can have a severe impact on public discourse. Although Joe Biden’s victory is a win for democracy, “Trumpism”, America’s deep polarisation and its morass of misinformation remains.”
    Pru Goward explains why we should not ignore Trump, repelled by him as we may be.
    The Age and SMH and their defence case were boosted yesterday when Ben Roberts-Smith was ordered to hand over the preliminary findings made by a war crimes inquiry into his conduct in Afghanistan
    The Crown inquiry shows a softly-softly approach to gambling regulation doesn’t work, explains Charles Livingstone.
    Jess Irvine does the numbers and concludes that the base Jobseeker payment is nowhere near high enough.
    Rachel Clun reports that the union representing aged care workers wants a rise in the Medicare levy to fund pay increases of at least $5 per hour for the workers in order to avoid a mass exodus from the sector.
    Kate Aubusson tells us that senior obstetricians have quit en masse at a western Sydney hospital after the deaths of four newborns in an 18-month period following concerns of caesareans and missed signs of foetal distress.
    Elizabeth Knight tells us what keeps Commonwealth Bank’.s chief executive, Matt Comyn, awake at night. She says that Comyn understands, as do his peers at the other big banks, that Australia’s hyper-stimulated economy is something of an artifice.
    Woolworths is facing increasing pressure from Darwin-based health and Indigenous community groups to dump its plans to open a huge Dan Murphy’s liquor outlets in the city.
    The New York Times has five take-aways from the Vatican’s explosive McCarrick report on sexual abuse.
    Democrats are growing frustrated at Republicans for refusing to acknowledge Joe Biden’s victory. But the President-elect is turning down the temperature, writes Matthew Knott.
    Bruce Guthrie writes, “The US election is over, I think, and Joe Biden will be the country’s next President once Donald Trump and his milksops are done with their tantrums and try-ons.”
    Biden has announced a COVID taskforce to guide him through the crisis. But there are many challenges ahead, writes Lesley Russell.
    Joe Biden is determined to “keep calm and carry on” as President-elect. But it’s not just Donald Trump making the usual transition to a new administration as hard and as ugly as possible, says Jennifer Hewett.
    Trump’s refusal to concede follows his pattern of incompetence and delusions, opines Richard Wolffe.
    Trump and his cabal are having no luck whatsoever with their legal claims over voting issues.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Peter Broelman

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    John Spooner

    Mark Knight

    From the US

  6. So can Dotard steal the election by having compliant States overturn the vote of their citizens, and send a Dotard slate to the Electoral College? The steps in this play explained here, finishing with..

    ‘But, but, but: Even if the GOP was able to get injunctions, it would be an arduous legal process before legislatures could take the matter into their own hands.

    “How many compliant judges are going to throw themselves on the ground in front of that train?” the lawyer said. “And how many legislatures are going to go along with it?” Instead, he said, Trump may try to “scare the living bejeezus out of everyone to gain leverage and then cut a deal for him and his family.”

  7. How infuriating that Kathleen Foley is being punished for disclosing a pattern of disgraceful behaviour of the AG.
    In saying this, I still think more explosive content of 4 Corners was snipped.
    Has there been communication between the Victorian Bar Council & the Attorney General’s office?
    Guess we’ll have to hope this gets investigated.

  8. Socrates

    Basically agree. To that I’d add that at a time when 30 year bond yields are close to zero and the Reserve Bank is now printing money (buying back bonds) its criminal not to borrow money to build infrastructure. Yet the current government is still playing the same game of not really raising the overall level of infrastructure spending and instead bullshitting about big numbers.

    We could have built a high speed rail line from Newcastle to Wollongong with the money being spent on stranded assets in the NBN build.

  9. Another excellent write up of the ‘steal the Electoral College’ ploy, which like many Dotard stunts, hasn’t been thought through to the end…

    ‘Regardless of however long a dispute is, the constitution does set one final deadline. Even if counting is ongoing, the president and vice-president’s terms both end at noon on 20 January. At that point if there isn’t a final result in the race, the speaker of the House – likely probably Nancy Pelosi – would become the acting president.’

  10. Would any Speaker have had the courage to stand up to Morrison about his disrespectful behaviour in Parliament? I don’t think Tony Smith would. Bronnie? Or Slipper?

  11. Ian Farquhar
    Why are ministers allowed to use WhatsApp? It’s invisible to FOI without the active participation of those involved. Ultimate irony: they want to ban E2E encryption for citizens, but use it themselves to avoid laws governing them, facilitating immoral and illegal behaviour.

  12. IMO
    Slipper took his position of Speaker seriously.
    He excelled at detaching his political ideology from his job.
    He was excellent & he would have slapped Morrison down when required.
    No fear or favour, hence his assassination.

  13. Ah, so THIS is the new general thread. I thought it was the NSW Redistribution one that was linked to at the end of the Newspoll thread.

  14. That recount in Georgia is a ruse. By hand? That is far less accurate, open to partisan interpretation, and… will be hard to do in time – and the Republican Georgia Sec of State knows it. Furthermore, it is an audit recount. So when done it appears the Republicans can demand another recount if the result is close enough.

    Time is running out. Uncertainty is the aim of the Republican game. Then the pressure will be on the Georgia lower house, overwhelmingly Republican, to do Trumps bidding.

    At what stage do we call this for what it is? The Republicans are plotting a coup.

  15. Was this the accusation that got Angus upset? (Just speculating.)

    Ellen Fanning:Journo
    · 36m
    “Is your plan to let the States and Territories and business do the heavy lifting on emissions reductions so you don’t have to antagonise your party room?” Fran Kelly questioning Angus Taylor, Energy and emissions Reduction Minister on net zero commitment. @RNBreakfast

  16. lizzie @ #17 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 7:51 am

    Was this the accusation that got Angus upset? (Just speculating.)

    Ellen Fanning:Journo
    · 36m
    “Is your plan to let the States and Territories and business do the heavy lifting on emissions reductions so you don’t have to antagonise your party room?” Fran Kelly questioning Angus Taylor, Energy and emissions Reduction Minister on net zero commitment. @RNBreakfast

    It has taken Fran this long to realise how impotent, incompetent, AWOL, and childish the LNP are over this? They dont care about the national interest. For these guys, it is always about themselves.

  17. No, it wasn’t a reaction to 4 C, apparently.

    Replying to @iMusing
    Wrong take. I voted in the Vic Bar Council elections well before the 4 corners program aired. There’s a lot going on at the Vic Bar & none of it has anything to do with 4 corners.

  18. Why The Greens Winning In Queensland’s Labor Heartland Is A Big Deal

    In her victory speech, returned Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk didn’t even acknowledge her former deputy’s loss (or contribution) and now-deputy premier Steven Miles credited the LNP preferencing the Greens over Labor in the seat for the Greens win.

    But what is totally absent from their recriminations is any suggestion that the Greens actually reflect the views of South Brisbane and Maiwar better than they do — or that Ms Trad was already on the path to losing the seat after the last election when she came within a hair’s breadth of getting turfed out.

    The gains made by the Greens at this election show that Labor cannot easily walk the tightrope of trying to appeal to middle Australia and win over the left-leaning inner city at the same time.

    New member for South Brisbane, Amy MacMahon, told Junkee the Greens believed the win was due to not just the opening chasm of views between her electorate and the Labor party, but also the strong ground-campaigns and community building done by the party in the area.

    “We’re really excited. I think this is the culmination of many months and many years of hard work we’ve been putting in on the ground here,” she said.

  19. Reading descriptions of Trump’s behaviour on Nov 11. Keeps everyone waiting in the rain. Can’t even be bothered to turn up in time for the minute’s silence, which must be the greatest insult. Better if he didn’t turn up at all.

  20. It would be interesting to sit down with Bronnie & discuss the environment she worked in, in Canberra.
    But, I think the years of silence & acceptance as normal, disgusting behaviours etc have welded her lips shut.

  21. It’s byzantine reasoning but maybe Fran Kelly was waiting for the cover that Joe Biden’s more strident position on American action wrt Climate Change gave her in order to criticise our federal government’s position more forcefully?

  22. In news sure to trigger some for numerous and various trivial reasons

    ‘Buddha would be green’: Dalai Lama calls for urgent climate action
    Exclusive: The Dalai Lama warns of terrible consequences of climate inaction

    The Dalai Lama says that if he joined a political party now, “I would like to join the Green party. Their idea is very good.”

  23. Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.


    After a couple of blackouts during the US election – my really good, just fine, most excellent, lotsa memory, SSD, plenty fast and everything computer, failed in a couple of areas —

    Write protected USB sticks were not recognised by the system and more importantly, the Screen saver and power settings didn’t work so that the monitor would not shut down after a period of non activity.

    Then – after a visit to a norty site the computer suffered a ransomeware attack, which zapped both the “Windows” drive plus a second drive containing almost 500 GB of data.

    “Dammit”, I cried. I have since rebuilt my data drive from a backup. The other problem which resisted all blandishments until yesterday was finally traced to an installation program containing a virus.

    Back in action this morning finally reinstalling my long list of active programs.

    Of course, yesterday when attempting to replace the battery in my much loved “Kindle” I somehow managed to damage the battery in the device which emitted a large cloud of smoke, setting of the local smoke detector, heated up rapidly and gave off sparks and a little fire.

    Rapid kitchen gloves movement and the device in a safe place and thence to the rubbish bin.

    New Kindle ordered (may arrive tomorrow (or not)).

    Good morning all, happy trails. 😇🎠

  24. [No, it wasn’t a reaction to 4 C, apparently.

    Replying to @iMusing
    Wrong take. I voted in the Vic Bar Council elections well before the 4 corners program aired. There’s a lot going on at the Vic Bar & none of it has anything to do with 4 corners.]

    It is a vote of the members of the Victorian Bar, which is a 1000+ folk although maybe 1/2 vote and where the vote is over a fortnight.

    The inference of the tweet is that the Council heaved Kathleen Foley in response to a story from two days ago. It is wrong.

  25. Sarah Hanson-Young to push for media diversity inquiry after Kevin Rudd’s Murdoch petition

    Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young will move to establish a Senate inquiry into media diversity on Wednesday following the popularity of Kevin Rudd’s petition for a royal commission into Murdoch media.

    Last week the former Labor prime minister’s petition for a royal commission into the need for a strong, diverse media was supported by 501,876 people.

    “The cosy relationship between the Coalition government and News Corp should be scrutinised,” Hanson-Young told Guardian Australia. “When you have half a million people signing a petition premised on investigating Murdoch’s dominance of news media the parliament should be listening.”

  26. Rudd and Turnbull will be called to give evidence at Senate inquiry into media diversity

    The former prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull will be called to give evidence at a Senate inquiry into media diversity that will examine the dominance of News Corp Australia and its impact on democracy.

    The Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young won support for the inquiry on Wednesday following the popularity of Rudd’s petition for a royal commission into the Murdoch media.

    Hanson-Young told Guardian Australia it was essential the two former leaders, who have been outspoken about the role of the Murdoch press, be allowed to “speak frankly and have the protection of parliamentary privilege, which is important when you’re talking about issues of power and influence”.

    Yep, give them parliamentary privilege and let them rip in unrestricted.

  27. OL

    I don’t know but given the time to vote was 80%+ before the FC story, probably for some other reason.

    To get elected Ms Foley needed to be in the top six of votes for junior barristers with 6 years + experience.

    Last year she finished in sixth place in that category in which all elected members were women.

  28. It’s time

    Morrison is setting the standard for his MPs, and it’s a disgraceful standard They are being encouraged to lie, to evade responsibility, to disrespect women (walking out on women speaking, talking over the top of them). Is it a surprise that one of the senior Libs (Howard?) hasn’t said anything? Or are they just too smug about being in power?

  29. Huge, if true! From Ewen Shearer…

    Barina’s caravan is starting to overtake her. About time.

    (Cash’s nickname is Barina, as in when talking (using the term loosely) she sounds like one pulling a caravan up a hill)

  30. Aw, the QAnon crew are having a massive attack of the sads and the ???s:

    Aside from perhaps Donald Trump himself, no one is struggling more with the president’s re-election defeat than QAnon conspiracy theorists.

    Since Oct. 2017, when the mysterious “Q” first began issuing clues on the anonymous message board 4Chan, QAnon believers have been promised that Trump would bring down a “cabal” of pedophile-cannibals in the Democratic Party, Hollywood, and banking with mass waves of arrests in a cathartic moment called “The Storm.” They have been promised that The Storm would solve not only the world’s biggest problems, but their own. At various points, they have even convinced each other that Trump would solve diseases like cancer and absolve crushing medical and credit card debts.

    But as Joe Biden built his lead in Pennsylvania, QAnon followers were faced with their greatest challenge yet. For years, they’ve been told that—no matter how bad things looked for Trump on the outside—the president and the military had everything in hand. “Patriots were in control,” Q told them in one popular motto, “Enjoy the show.”

    Now, it’s starting to look to even some of the most dedicated followers—some of whom have sacrificed family in their devotion to the conspiracy theory—that QAnon might actually have been nonsense. And they aren’t sure what to do.

  31. Wouldn’t it be a delight to see Rudd and Turnbull sitting at the same desk in front of the Senate media inquiry and letting rip at Murdoch.

  32. lizzie,
    No one will say anything about Morrison’s behaviour until he starts losing big time in the only place that counts, elections. Which he kind of has done already but not in a way that personally reflects upon himself to the nation. Territory elections, a by-election and a state election don’t really count. Though I find it interesting that Labor have put up a candidate for the Groom by-election unusually and The Greens and PHON aren’t. Do they know something up there that we don’t? As losing Groom would be the sort of result that might send reverberations through the Coalition and challenge Morrison’s iron grip on power.

  33. I really don’t understand why any rational being gives credence to a religious leader who was chosen according to an ancient superstition.

    No Green gets over excited when a Christian or Islamic leader – usually chosen according to some kind of merit system – makes an announcement. Usually the reaction is that they’re representing an outdated and out of touch institution; often they’re referred to as ‘believing in sky fairies’ or similar.

    But when someone who is (cough) in their position because, apparently, they’ve been reincarnated, speaks, apparently that’s the Voice of God.

    I’d be interested in Quoll explaining his religious views, and why he gives such credence to the Dalai Lama.

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