On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

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  1. ‘Does everyone forget how stupidly complicated labor made switching leaders. If Albo’s diggs in like a tick, they’re going to need to dip the party in kero to get rid of him. They need what 60% party vote, and it’ll be ugly, and the base will be offside.’

    Yeah, and I also remember how stupidly Labor chopped and changed Prime Minsters as well. Sorry but the old rules were a bonanza for number crunchers and bed wetter’s who treated the leadership as their play thing. Troy Bramston suggested Labor caucus could undo the 60% caucus mechanism for leadership change, but its not clear if they could change rank and file getting a vote. I doubt they could or would on the latter because there would be a massive backlash they would face in the party.

    ‘Labor’s leaders are now chosen by caucus and party members voting in equal proportion. The incumbent cannot be challenged in opposition without the support of 60 per cent of caucus.

    But there are two critical factors here that are seldom recognised. First, the ­caucus is master of its own destiny and could change these rules with a simple ­majority vote. Second, the 60 per cent protection threshold is not enshrined in the party’s national constitution.’

  2. ‘Whatever happens, supporters of Chalmers should avoid using the “Dr” bit. It didn’t help Evatt or Hewson, or Cairns for that matter. I’ve no idea if this is true, but a political heavy once swore blind to me that an Opposition leader subsequent to Evatt had all but completed the requirements for a PhD but chose never to graduate because he thought it would be detrimental to him in the eyes of the public.’

    The ‘Dr’ didn’t seem to stop Geoff Gallop winning two WA state elections though.

  3. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/17/trump-desperate-fight-stop-minority-vote-republicans-racism

    Bludgers might find this worth reading….on racism in America, on the divide between those who cling to White privilege/racial oppression and those who organise, fight and vote for racial equality. This article also exposes the lies of the Faux…of the impersonators and frauds of the so-called left….who conceal their Trumpism (really what amounts to their crypto racism) behind a demonisation of the Democratic Party and its overwhelmingly black, brown, Latino and Native American supporters.

    150-odd years since the end of the Civil War and the abolition of slavery, people of colour are still struggling for equal rights in the US, including not least for their voting rights. This year’s election has been another stanza in a struggle that’s been running for more than 500 years….from the first days of colonial settlement.

  4. I was a Flower of the mountain yes when I put the rose in my hair like the Andalusian girls used or shall I wear a red yes and how he kissed me under the Moorish Wall and I thought well as well him as another and then I asked him with my eyes to ask again yes and then he asked me would I yes to say yes my mountain flower and first I put my arms around him yes and drew him down to me so he could feel my breasts all perfume yes and his heart was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes.

  5. This settlement of the Robodebt crimes lets the Liberal crooks get off scot free with no admission of guilt and inadequate awards to victims.

    There is definitely one law for the rich and powerful in Australia and another for the poor.

    “Gordon Legal partner Andrew Grech said on Tuesday he recognised people held “legitimate concerns” about the level of compensation given the hardship they had been through but said its approval should not be held up.

    Davidh Digman, who joined the class action, is angry at how it has played out and intends to object to the settlement.

    The government hasn’t had to admit any fault so they preserve their ego; the amount we’re receiving is just an insult,” he said. “There are people who will be excluded from receiving anything and there’s no one really being held to account.”

    “the payment averages out at $280 a person, less legal costs that are still to be determined.”

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/it-doesn-t-give-me-anything-robo-debt-victims-unhappy-at-settlement-20201117-p56fdu.html

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The federal government and some of its boosters keep talking in code about relaxing Covid restrictions. We need to be careful.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/border-closures-after-adelaide-outbreak-shows-federation-falling-apart-says-business-20201117-p56fg6.html
    As South Australian authorities work to bring a new cluster under control, doctors have warned that Australia will be left exposed to COVID-19 if restrictions relax too far.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/covid-cautious-ama-says-australians-shouldn-t-get-back-to-normal-20201117-p56f8y.html
    The AFR says that today Josh Frydenberg will reprimand the major financial regulators for hampering the recovery from the COVID-induced recession with overzealous intervention in policymaking.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/frydenberg-to-accuse-regulators-of-hurting-recovery-20201117-p56fcz
    Nick Xenophon, representing David McBride, the whistleblower who got the ball rolling on the investigations into the conduct of Australian SAS members in Afghanistan, has written an open letter to General Campbell. Xenophon asks Campbell to read and reflect on what is happening to McBride before he speaks out tomorrow about the SAS report, because the two are inextricably linked.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/if-moral-courage-matters-this-whistleblower-needs-defending-20201116-p56ey4.html
    Nick Bonyhady and Katina Curtis tell us that people affected by the unlawful “robo-debt” scheme are upset and angry at a settlement their law firm reached with the federal government that will split $112 million between up to 430,000 plaintiffs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-doesn-t-give-me-anything-robo-debt-victims-unhappy-at-settlement-20201117-p56fdu.html
    Cassandra Goldie demands that the inhumane robo-debt must never be allowed to happen again.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inhumane-robo-debt-must-never-be-allowed-to-happen-again-20201117-p56f8s.html
    Luke Henriques-Gomes reports that a new study has shown that an extra 330,000 people will be thrown below the poverty line when the federal government reduces the coronavirus supplement after Christmas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/18/covid-welfare-cut-will-cast-330000-more-australians-into-poverty-researcher-says
    The majority of environmental water redirected from irrigators under the $13 billion Murray-Darling Basin Plan isn’t being delivered to its intended wetland targets, with private land blocking the connections between rivers and floodplains, new research shows.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/environment/2020/11/17/murray-darling-basin-plan/
    Department of Defence secretly investigates itself, does not make public the review’s existence or its terms of reference, and keeps any resulting report secret. Defence recommends buying hundreds of vehicles from Thales, despite no need for them, just so Thales can keep its factory open. Houston, we have a problem, writes Michelle Fahy.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/department-of-defence-captured-by-foreign-weapons-makers-thales-bae/
    Cait Kelly tells us that Australians are working more than five hours of unpaid work every week, according to new research that put the annual figure of unpaid work at nearly $100 billion.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/11/18/cost-unpaid-work-100-billion/
    What is it that Rupert Murdoch has that enables him to demand of our government millions of dollars of taxpayer’s money whenever he wants it, asks John Lord who says that this government’s dishonesty continues unabated.
    https://theaimn.com/government-dishonesty-continues-unabated/
    Older Australians and those employed by small businesses are being left behind by the recovery out of the coronavirus recession as the withdrawal of federal government support filters through the economy, explains Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/older-workers-dropping-behind-younger-people-for-new-jobs-20201117-p56fda.html
    The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has unloaded on the ASX for a second day, articulating its concern with the performance of the market’s main infrastructure and warning the market operator that its licence could be hit with “further actions”.
    https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asic-raises-hell-after-another-asx-component-fails-20201117-p56f9m
    David Crowe writes that a former union chief has warned that a growing split in one of Australia’s biggest unions will weaken its power to campaign for Labor and influence national policy,
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-gave-it-my-best-shot-union-split-set-to-weaken-base-at-crucial-time-for-labor-20201112-p56e75.html
    Australian Banking Association chief executive Anna Bligh says home and business owners will have to make tough choices next year as loan deferral plans and government stimulus packages come to an end, reports Charlotte Grieve.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/time-of-reckoning-loan-deferrals-falling-but-warnings-worst-to-come-20201117-p56fb7.html
    You may be able to buy a COVID vaccine ahead of the government rollout. But jumping the queue comes at a price, warns The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/you-may-be-able-to-buy-a-covid-vaccine-ahead-of-the-government-rollout-but-jumping-the-queue-comes-at-a-price-149972
    And it tells us that buying and distributing a COVID-19 vaccine will involve hard ethical and practical choices.
    https://theconversation.com/buying-and-distributing-a-covid-19-vaccine-will-involve-hard-ethical-and-practical-choices-149980
    More smoke and mirrors from Rupert Murdoch, as News Corp gets all “scientific” with Big Tobacco, writes Rhys Muldoon.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/news-corps-new-found-belief-in-science,14523
    Although not being happy with the 4 Corners report, Pru Goward provides some interesting insights into the goings on inside the Canberra “bubble”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/sex-and-power-the-human-resources-that-toxify-workplaces-20201117-p56f70.html
    Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s deputy chief of staff Sabina Husic has resigned after an anonymous “defamatory attack” online. Politics can be SO toxic!
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/top-albanese-staffer-resigns-after-malicious-false-attack-20201117-p56fgl.html
    Darren Pennay asks, “How can Australia reduce the risk of another ‘systemic polling failure’?”
    https://theconversation.com/how-can-australia-reduce-the-risk-of-another-systemic-polling-failure-149984
    The once “darling of the Coalition government”, Kathy Jackson, will be sentence on November 26.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/no-evidence-union-boss-kathy-jackson-remorseful-for-100-000-fraud-says-judge-20201117-p56f90.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons looks at how people are beginning to return to the office for work.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/better-than-remote-chance-the-office-is-back-20201117-p56fdy.html
    Alexandra Smith explains how NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet will stake the state’s economic recovery on debt-funded spending and sweeping tax reform, including the ambitious task of abolishing stamp duty.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/tax-reform-key-to-the-resurrecting-post-pandemic-nsw-budget-20201117-p56ffn.html
    Mike Foley reports that New technology to help bring down the cost of electric vehicle ownership is being rolled out to 300 households in a trial of systems for automated off-peak charging and supplying the electricity grid with power from car batteries.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/smart-grid-technology-to-spark-savings-for-electric-vehicle-owners-20201117-p56fc5.html
    Victorians have been promised Australia’s biggest household energy efficiency drive, with the Andrews government pledging $797m to programs it says will cut power bills and greenhouse gas emissions.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/18/victoria-pledges-797m-for-australias-biggest-household-energy-efficiency-drive
    Buying an investment property in these days of record-low interest rates is not going to save you much tax, if any, explains Noel Whittaker.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/there-s-no-longer-a-great-tax-incentive-for-negative-gearing-20201116-p56eyq.html
    Meanwhile, John Collett says that investment property mortgages on deferral remain persistently high and a crunch may be looming that could result in forced sales.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/crunch-time-looms-for-property-investors-on-repayment-holidays-20201113-p56eco.html
    Duncan Fine writes that, while Americans celebrate Kamala Harris’ rise to the top, there’s been a quiet ambivalence that her husband, Doug Emhoff, is set to become the ‘second spouse’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/as-first-man-becomes-second-spouse-the-unease-reveals-gender-barriers-20201117-p56fa3.html
    Today’s nomination for “Arseholes of the Week” goes to a couple of money launderers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-men-arrested-after-allegedly-sending-stolen-2-3-million-offshore-20201117-p56fe1.html
    And another goes to a mother of seven who has been charged with being at the centre of a web of scammers who made $800,000 from fake welfare claims and took money meant for people living with disabilities.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/mum-of-seven-allegedly-led-syndicate-which-made-800k-from-welfare-fraud-20201117-p56f7x.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding



    Fiona Katauskas

    Glen Le Lievre

    John Spooner

    Mark Knight

    Simon Letch

    John Shakespeare

    From the US










  7. What is it that Rupert Murdoch has that enables him to demand of our government millions of dollars of taxpayer’s money whenever he wants it, asks John Lord who says that this government’s dishonesty continues unabated.

    Payment for all the acres of newsprint in the pages of the Daily Rupert and National Rupert devoted to campaigning for the Coalition?

  8. Oakeshott Country @ #4416 Wednesday, November 18th, 2020 – 3:07 am

    I was a Flower of the mountain yes when I put the rose in my hair like the Andalusian girls used or shall I wear a red yes and how he kissed me under the Moorish Wall and I thought well as well him as another and then I asked him with my eyes to ask again yes and then he asked me would I yes to say yes my mountain flower and first I put my arms around him yes and drew him down to me so he could feel my breasts all perfume yes and his heart was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes.

    I think I’m more Finnegan’s Wake than Ulysses – overly complex, virtually unreadable and a source of quarks.

  9. OC in the wee small hours: “I was a Flower of the mountain yes when I put the rose in my hair like the Andalusian girls used or shall I wear a red yes and how he kissed me under the Moorish Wall and I thought well as well him as another and then I asked him with my eyes to ask again yes and then he asked me would I yes to say yes my mountain flower and first I put my arms around him yes and drew him down to me so he could feel my breasts all perfume yes and his heart was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes.”

    Ah yes, Molly Bloom in the La Alameda Gardens of Gibraltar. Somewhere I hope to visit one day if I can ever afford to retire.


  10. Oakeshott Country @ #4416 Wednesday, November 18th, 2020 – 3:07 am

    I was a Flower of the mountain yes when I put the rose in my hair like the Andalusian girls used or shall I wear a red yes and how he kissed me under the Moorish Wall and I thought well as well him as another and then I asked him with my eyes to ask again yes and then he asked me would I yes to say yes my mountain flower and first I put my arms around him yes and drew him down to me so he could feel my breasts all perfume yes and his heart was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes.

    I think I’m more Finnegan’s Wake than Ulysses – overly complex, virtually unreadable and a source of quarks.

    An abstract painting in words.

    For really weird; quantum biology.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtXlpPENeP0

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