On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

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  1. ”#Essential Poll WA McGowan ALP: Approve 87 (+9) Disapprove 7 (-5) #wapol #auspol

    That’s pretty impressive. Even God would be hard pressed to score a net approval of +80%.

  2. William Bowe @ #895 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 3:10 pm

    Rather than work on lingering issues with the site such as the absence of comments pagination, I have been hard at work programming new obstructions that only apply to you.

    It’s great idea.

    Perhaps the software can be made to treat different regular posters differently. For example
    – Delete every third paragraph from any post by E. G. Theodore
    – Block any post from Briefly containing any of the words “garden”, “gizmo”, or “fucked”
    – In any post by Player One, delete any text formatted in italics
    – Allow through only one (randomly selected) post from Mundo in any given day
    – Block any post from Bushfire Bill that names any female poster
    – Randomly rearrange the sentences of all posts from Zerlo
    – Inject a random delay of up to five minutes in the publication of any post from C@tMomma
    – Insert a chorus of “For He’s a Jolly Good Fellow” at a randomly chosen position in any post from Mavis Davis
    – Replace a random word in posts from Oakeshott Country with a text sequence drawn from Molly Bloom’s soliloquy

    and so on.

  3. Rudd was destabilised after Fitzgibbon didn’t get back into the ministry when he thought he should have. Gillard was destabilised when Fitzgibbon didn’t get back into the ministry when he thought he should have.

    I’m wondering if Labor might have been better off if they lost Hunter in the last election?

  4. In this frivolous Dotard case in Pennsylvania, all the plaintiff lawyers have resigned – the replacement for them is a radio announcer with legal training. They asked for a delay, the judges’ s response..

  5. – Inject a random delay of up to five minutes in the publication of any post from C@tMomma

    Sometimes I wish I was born with a delay and reconsider button in my brain. But then, that wouldn’t be me, would it? 🙂

  6. Albanese lacks pretty much all of the qualities and skills needed to become PM. He will never be PM so long as his arse points towards the ground. The right wing hacks on here who support him are in denial.

  7. The only lawyer Rudy could find was Marc Scaringi who will front the court tomorrow.. not sure if it will go well..

    ‘Trump’s latest lawyer told listeners of his radio show Nov. 7 “in my opinion there really are no bombshells that are about to drop that will derail a Biden presidency, including the lawsuits” and suggested Trump’s suits “don’t seem to have much evidence.”

  8. Earlier some clown made the false comparison between Albanese and state opposition leaders. What a load of bullshit. None of the various state governments are anyway near as corrupt and incompetent as the federal Tories. Nice try but…next!

  9. The current leadership ratings are silly really…..They reflect a belief that most of our elected leaders have, by and large, done the best they can to deal with CV19….This includes Morrison of course……..All oppositions and their leaders (Albo included of course) are on lean pickings for the next little while….Just the way it is at the moment………

    By the way Steve777, the role of the Murdoch press supporting the LNP happened long before 2010………………..At the time of The Dismissal, the Australian newspaper was just a one-sided mouth-piece for Malcolm Fraser………………………..and as you know this was 1975……
    I parted company with the Oz when, in one editorial, the Oz said it was their goal to “destroy” the Greens at the ballot box………………….I am not a Green voter, but it take exception to a a newspaper editor dictating that his publications set out to “destroy” a political party….I would, by the way, feel the same way if the Oz said they would do the same to One Nation……..

  10. Re E. G. Theodore @7:07

    Also replace “Labor” with “Liberal” in any post by Lars, also “Albo” with “Scomo” and “Dictator” when followed by “Dan” with “our beloved”. … and so on.

  11. ”Sometimes I wish I was born with a delay and reconsider button in my brain. But then, that wouldn’t be me, would it?”

    I was. It’s not as great as it sounds.

  12. mundo @ #960 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 7:22 pm

    Player One @ #917 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 6:07 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #921 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 6:03 pm

    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    1m
    #Essential Poll VIC Andrews ALP: Approve 65 (+4) Disapprove 28 (-5) #springst #auspol

    Wow !

    Dan Andrews for Federal Labor Leader! 🙂

    Actually … anybody for Federal Labor Leader … 🙁

    A leader for federal Labor

    I see the usual suspects are still denying Covid reality.

    Oh well,

    https://youtu.be/vjWebKavfuI

    🙂

  13. I think the approval ratings of most of our leaders are overstated due to total and utter chaos overseas. You could have Humphrey B Bear and Fat Cat in charge of government at the moment and get great approval ratings.

    Once Covid-19 dissipates with a vaccine readily available will determine how well leaders are with trying to find a way to repay the debt we have incurred thru the virus.

  14. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 7:39 pm
    Re E. G. Theodore @7:07

    Also replace “Labor” with “Liberal” in any post by Lars, also “Albo” with “Scomo” and “Dictator” when followed by “Dan” with “our beloved”. … and so on.
    ____________________________________
    Good honest feedback is always hard to hear – but essential steve777. I can sense your inner turmoil – there is good in you!

  15. You could have Humphrey B Bear and Fat Cat in charge of government at the moment and get great approval ratings.

    That’s more or less the situation in the USA and the incumbent lost. At least a minimal competence in handling the Pandemic is required.

  16. E.G. Theodore:

    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 7:07 pm

    [‘Delete every third paragraph from any post by E. G. Theodore.’]

    Ted, you do carry on from to time. Please get a grip, dear.

  17. This is very sad…

    ‘Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s deputy chief of staff Sabina Husic has resigned after an anonymous “malicious” attack against her was posted online the day she returned from three weeks of mental health leave.

    An anonymous document was posted on a specially-created webpage on Monday night, airing a series of uncorroborated claims against senior staff in Mr Albanese’s office. Mr Albanese described the claims as “fake” and stood by his “outstanding office” staff’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/top-albanese-staffer-resigns-after-malicious-false-attack-20201117-p56fgl.html

  18. [Michelle Obama] finished by urging Americans, “especially our nation’s leaders, regardless of party”, to honour the electoral process and do what they could to encourage a smooth handover to Mr Biden – “just as sitting presidents have done throughout our history”.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/us-election/2020/11/17/michelle-obama-trump-election/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020201117

    Contrast with President Obama’s handover to President Trump four years ago.

  19. I will tell you this much.

    There are people in Albanese’s office that he inherited from Bill Shorten.

    There are those in the Right of Labor who are great haters of the Left. That’s news to no one I guess. There are those among them who want the leadership of the Left’s Albanese to fail. Sad but true. So…if others fail around him, it must be his fault, huh?

  20. Right wing dinosaurs angrified about Left Wing influence in the Labor leadership? If the current Labor set up is too Lefty for them then how fucking RWNJ are those people ? Hello B.A. Santamaria ?

  21. C@

    Well, that’s counter to my experience. The factions are nowhere near as vicious or antagonistic at federal level as they are at State, and generally work together very co operatively.

    Regardless — if Albo has kept staff around him who he cannot totally rely on, that’s an issue of judgement. And a bit ironic, given how untrustworthy he proved himself with Gillard, when he was meant to have her back.

  22. Lars Von Trier @ #974 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 7:51 pm

    Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 7:39 pm
    Re E. G. Theodore @7:07

    Also replace “Labor” with “Liberal” in any post by Lars, also “Albo” with “Scomo” and “Dictator” when followed by “Dan” with “our beloved”. … and so on.
    ____________________________________
    Good honest feedback is always hard to hear – but essential steve777. I can sense your inner turmoil – there is good in you!

    Hey L’arse. Please explain for us how the Robodebt algorithm was faultless.
    Your powerful insights would be much appreciated, I’m sure. Your displays of erudite imbecility and self-confident pure ignorance, so cunningly intertwined, are a source of wonder and delight.

  23. Yeah yabba, I’m not a self assessed genius from mensa such as yourself, but I could see polls claiming Biden was winning by 10 or 11 points were b.s. You however loudly proclaimed the truth of these same polls. When you can explain such a massive misjudgement on your part perhaps I might entertain your questions.

  24. zoomster @ #982 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 8:47 pm

    C@

    Well, that’s counter to my experience. The factions are nowhere near as vicious or antagonistic at federal level as they are at State, and generally work together very co operatively.

    Regardless — if Albo has kept staff around him who he cannot totally rely on, that’s an issue of judgement. And a bit ironic, given how untrustworthy he proved himself with Gillard, when he was meant to have her back.

    What comes around, goes around.

    My intelligence is reliable.

    2019 loss still playing itself out.

    And it’s not the upper tier staff that were kept on and not replaced.

    And yes, the two opposing factions can work together sometimes very well.

  25. Good honest feedback is always hard to hear – but essential steve777. I can sense your inner turmoil – there is good in you!

    Yes, I forgot to include Nath in that comment.

  26. Lars Von Trier @ #986 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 9:02 pm

    Yeah yabba, I’m not a self assessed genius from mensa such as yourself, but I could see polls claiming Biden was winning by 10 or 11 points were b.s. You however loudly proclaimed the truth of these same polls. When you can explain such a massive misjudgement on your part perhaps I might entertain your questions.

    As one would expect from you, your statements are a straight out lie. Polls don’t ‘claim’ anything (they are inanimate) and I have never, at any point, stated that any poll, or aggregation of polls, was ‘true’.

    I realise that it is unfortunate for you that you are not very bright, but it is tedious for the rest of us to be continually subjected to the vitriol brought about by your obvious resentment of that fact, and your sad envy of those who are more fortunate.

  27. Australia and Japan have taken a major step towards signing a long-awaited defence pact which will enable both countries to intensify military cooperation in the face of rising tensions with China.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced an “in-principle agreement” on the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) after holding their first face-to-face meeting in Tokyo.

    Officials have spent six years negotiating the agreement, which will provide a legal and administrative framework for both forces visiting the other country.

    It marks a significant milestone for Japan, which has not struck a pact on a foreign military presence since the Status of Forces Agreement it signed with the United States 60 years ago.

    Mr Morrison hailed the agreement as a “pivotal moment in the history of Japan-Australia ties”.

    “The significance of the RAA cannot be understated,” he said.

    “It will form a key plank of Australia’s and Japan’s response to an increasingly challenging security environment in our region amid more uncertain strategic circumstances.”

  28. Lars Von Trier @ #983 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 8:02 pm

    Yeah yabba, I’m not a self assessed genius from mensa such as yourself, but I could see polls claiming Biden was winning by 10 or 11 points were b.s.

    They weren’t, really. 10-11 points to Biden, or BS.

    Biden’s final polling lead was between 7 and 8 points, depending upon whose average you took. He was expected to take 51-52% of the popular vote. He’s on track to land on 51.<something>. The polls did pretty well there, on average.

    Trump was expected to land around 44% in the popular vote. He’s looking at more like 47.5%. The polls missed by about 3.5 points. That’s about a normal polling error. And probably somewhat predictable in that the idea of ~5% going to a third-party candidate (that’s the only way you can have Biden 51 / Trump 44) was never credible.

    Seems like Trump had some supporters hiding in the people who said they’d vote “other”. Meh. Not the pollsters’ fault if respondents lie.

  29. Scotty from Marketing was the total comedy act on ABC news footage tonight of his Japan trip.. made every possible wrong move .
    He makes Trump look the consummate professional .

    How embarrassing can he get ?

  30. Firstly, the ACT under a Labor government has been gradually moving along this path for a number of years.

    Secondly, the ACT Liberals have tried (unsuccessfully) to make political capital out of vehemently opposing this.

    Thirdly, does Morrison agree with the hard right Liberals in the ACT or the hard right Treasurer in NSW?

    Other states under pressure to follow NSW’s lead on stamp duty reform

    NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet on Tuesday called for states to work together to phase out stamp duty on residential properties following the release of the state budget.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bold-step-other-states-urged-to-follow-nsw-s-lead-on-stamp-duty-reform-20201117-p56fdn.html

  31. clem attlee @ #962 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    Albanese lacks pretty much all of the qualities and skills needed to become PM. He will never be PM so long as his arse points towards the ground. The right wing hacks on here who support him are in denial.

    Tony Abbott patently lacked those skills as well. But it didn’t stop him from obtaining that position. Albanese needs to utilise the skills necessary to win an election.

  32. C@tmomma @ #980 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 7:25 pm

    I will tell you this much.

    There are people in Albanese’s office that he inherited from Bill Shorten.

    There are those in the Right of Labor who are great haters of the Left. That’s news to no one I guess. There are those among them who want the leadership of the Left’s Albanese to fail. Sad but true. So…if others fail around him, it must be his fault, huh?

    That’s an indictment on Labor that some don’t realise who the real enemy is. This is not a time for petty factionalism. People have died due to this government’s incompetence and corruption. Stopplayinf fucking games and bring this government to account for its victims.

  33. Does everyone forget how stupidly complicated labor made switching leaders. If Albo’s diggs in like a tick, they’re going to need to dip the party in kero to get rid of him. They need what 60% party vote, and it’ll be ugly, and the base will be offside.

    If Albo is to go, he has to go on his own terms.

    Anyway, I agree with you C@t, I think the recent loss is still playing out. It’s kinda why I have come to the view that the ALP shouldn’t rush to pick a new leader so fast after a loss. Everyone missed out on hitting bill with bats (deserved or not) about the last election.

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