On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

• Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

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  1. Malcolm Turnbull has accused Prime Minister Scott Morrison of working as “a team” with News Corp newspapers and Sky TV.

    And people like mundo believe it’s easy peasy lemon squeezie for Labor to break this stranglehold on the nation’s eyes and ears, which are connected to their brains!?!

  3. C@tmomma @ #901 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 4:26 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull has accused Prime Minister Scott Morrison of working as “a team” with News Corp newspapers and Sky TV.

    And people like mundo believe it’s easy peasy lemon squeezie for Labor to break this stranglehold on the nation’s eyes and ears, which are connected to their brains!?!

    Other Labor leaders have managed it. Is Albo useless, is he lazy, or does he just not care?

  4. C@tmomma @ #898 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 3:47 pm

    a r @ #891 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 4:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #839 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 1:11 pm

    Could the Moderator please tell me why I am not allowed to edit my comments anymore when I notice a spelling error or word in the wrong place?

    Doubt it’s deliberate. The entire site was hacked and the restored from a backup not that long ago.

    I WAS kind of being facetious. I thought it may have been some sort of by-product of the whole shemozzle recently. I just thought I’d bring it to the attention of the God Mod. 🙂

    There is an emoji for that

  5. Good to see the Socialist Victorian Premier getting things done.

    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    28m
    Replying to
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    We’re helping 250,000 low-income households replace their old heater with an energy-efficient electric heater and cooling system – saving them up to $900 a year.
    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    28m
    We’re also improving energy efficiency in over 35,000 social housing properties through heating, cooling and hot water upgrades – plus replacing seals on windows and doors.
    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    28m
    And because no one should have to choose between keeping the lights on and putting food on the table, we’re providing $250 payments for eligible concession card holders to help with immediate costs.

  7. I certainly don’t move in the same circles as the stars of automobile maintenance ads although I did take my car to Ultra-Tune a few times.

  8. This SA cluster may be out of control…

    UPDATED 4.40PM (AEDT)

    Adelaide’s Parafield coronavirus cluster has grown further, with South Australian health authorities confirming five more cases on Tuesday.

    Chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier said 20 cases had been definitely linked to the outbreak,

    There are also a further 14 suspected infections among close contacts, including many children.

    Four of Tuesday’s new cases – including one in an aged care worker – are linked to the outbreak. The other is still under investigation.

    Professor Spurrier said about 4000 people were in quarantine as authorities worked to stamp out the outbreak.

    They include a student at Roma Mitchell College in Gepps Cross, which is one of five South Australian schools to have closed. The others are Mawson Lakes School and Preschool, Thomas More College in Salisbury Downs, Holy Family Catholic School in Parafield Gardens and Mount Carmel College at Rosewater.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/sa/2020/11/17/adelaide-parafield-cluster/

  10. Player One @ #901 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 4:30 pm

    C@tmomma @ #901 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 4:26 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull has accused Prime Minister Scott Morrison of working as “a team” with News Corp newspapers and Sky TV.

    And people like mundo believe it’s easy peasy lemon squeezie for Labor to break this stranglehold on the nation’s eyes and ears, which are connected to their brains!?!

    Other Labor leaders have managed it. Is Albo useless, is he lazy, or does he just not care?

    Albo doesn’t have to worry about Newscorp.

    He just needs briefly and co to letterbox flyers advertising his Howard-esque cash bribe (childcare) in the outer urbs and he’s on a winner.

  11. Mavis @ #838 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 11:10 am

    BK:

    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 1:58 pm

    [‘I thought Gillian Andreson was overegging Margaret Thatcher but, having had a look at Thatcher on YouTube I had to admit I was wrong!’]

    Anderson did turn in a polished performance, as did Menzies. But the best actor in my view to play Thatcher was Meryl Streep, in “The Iron Lady”. How both Anderson & Streep perfected Thatcher’s voice and affectations are remarkable.

    Plenty of YouTube videos to learn from perhaps?

  12. Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 4:50 pm
    Newscorp Australia has been basically functioning as a member of the National-Liberal Coalition since at least 2010.

    ————-

    IPA and Newsltd/corp has been the political propaganda unit and creator of the liberal party , Abbott ,Turnbull and many more members of the liberal party were ex newsltd employees or current members of the IPA

  13. William Bowe @ #895 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 3:10 pm

    Could the Moderator please tell me why I am not allowed to edit my comments anymore when I notice a spelling error or word in the wrong place?

    Rather than work on lingering issues with the site such as the absence of comments pagination, I have been hard at work programming new obstructions that only apply to you.

    Someone’s teacher’s pet.

    But seriously, good luck unhacking the site.

  14. meher baba @ #890 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 1:04 pm

    sprocket_

    “We’ve hit peak Gold Coast…stripper and star of an Ultra Tune ad caught doing cocaine from the buttocks of another woman with her police officer ex-boyfriend has been fined $1500.’”

    My life seems so pedestrian by comparison…

    Pfft! Once upon a time she would’ve been caught doing cocaine from the buttocks of another stripper while the Police Minister, Police Chief and half the Queensland police force would’ve been there snorting away with her.

    Amateurs these days. Pfft!

  16. This SA cluster may be out of control…

    Still too early to say. In 3 days there have only been 4+13+5 cases. Today’s 5 is encouraging.

  17. Newscorp Australia loses between half a million and million dollars a day…and has for years. It is therefore not a business, or part of a money making business….
    We all know what it actually is.

  19. If SA avoids a Second Wave it will be because Victoria put in the hard yards, figured out what worked and what to look out for and ultimately showed them how to avoid the same traps.

  20. Fulvio
    It’s probably true that some Labor politicians are telling stories. I don’t think that’s made up.
    Whether *those* stories are true or not is another matter.

    Certainly Fitzgibbon deliberately invited the media to a round of leadership speculation off the back of his shadow cabinet scuffle.

  23. “Albanese face a challenge BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR!”

    Or maybe, in the next decade?

    What a brave and bold prediction for an anonymous source to make; one can see why anonymity was required.

  27. Apparently there has been a reset of the site. Where and how? I still see the same inane arguments from and between the same people as before, so what was the reset?Answering my own question, stuff all.

  28. GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    21m
    #Essential Poll WA McGowan ALP: Approve 87 (+9) Disapprove 7 (-5) #wapol #auspol

    Is this some kind of record for approval rating ?

  29. 65% pfft,Why is Dan Andrews so unpopular ? 🙂
    .
    GhostWhoVotes
    (@GhostWhoVotes)
    #Essential Poll WA McGowan ALP: Approve 87 (+9) Disapprove 7 (-5) #wapol #auspol

    November 17, 2020

  33. “65% pfft,Why is Dan Andrews so unpopular ? ”

    Tragic results for Dan Andrews. At this rate the opposition may not be completely wiped out at the next election.

  38. Sensitive Jim looks like he’s waiting to see which way the wind blows on Albo. Says the complaint will be “dealt with one way or the other”

  41. Malcolm Turnbull has accused Prime Minister Scott Morrison of working as “a team” with News Corp newspapers and Sky TV.

    Coming from Turnbull, that’s hilarious. Given the way he closely coordinated with News Corp on attacking the NBN and bullying experts who defended it.

  42. Lars von Trier:

    If he goes he’ll be in the same category as Matthew Tudor.

    If your 117 year out great aunt existed anywhere other than in your mind she’d tell you that Frank Tudor and Matthew Charlton are two different people.

  45. Cud Chewer @ #941 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 6:44 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull has accused Prime Minister Scott Morrison of working as “a team” with News Corp newspapers and Sky TV.

    Coming from Turnbull, that’s hilarious. Given the way he closely coordinated with News Corp on attacking the NBN and bullying experts who defended it.

    Victorians will not forget the teamwork of Newscorp and Turnbull with the ‘African gangs’ divisive beatup.

  46. WTF. In the NSW budget the Liberals have cut $200 million from the Rural Fire Service – 22 percent of the RFS budget. Unbelievable.

  47. Yes sorry conjuncted didn’t I.

    My great aunt Eunice is 112 years young and in great shape considering her advanced years thank you very much.

  49. I wonder how voters in states other than Victoria rate Daniel Andrews as a leader ?

    Realistically, probably the same way Victorians rate other states’ Premiers. If they’re politically engaged, they generally rate according to their political leanings. If they’re not politically engaged, they’re indifferent because he’s not their Premier.

  50. Mr 87%

    Thomas O’Brien
    @TJ__OBrien
    WA Premier Mark McGowan : “It was pretty outrageous what the Fed Govt did to the Victorian Government, their behaviour was appalling. Mr Frydenberg and some of those characters, their behaviour was appalling. Daniel Andrews did what he had to do, he did what he had to do.” 1/2
    2:57 PM · Nov 17, 2020·Twitter Web App

    Thomas O’Brien
    @TJ__OBrien
    ·
    3h
    Replying to
    @TJ__OBrien
    “….The fact they undermined, criticised, attacked the whole way along during a period of extreme pressure was appalling.” 2/2

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