On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

Comments Page 18 of 21
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  1. meher baba @ #846 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 2:15 pm

    mundo: “Given enough time I think Chalmers would be a chance. The only caveat being his apparent lack of ‘dog’…but, given the opportunity, who knows.”

    If Chalmers does become leader, I wonder if all the chardonnay socialists I know will be as scathing about his ocker accent as they were of Gillard’s? (“She talks like a moron, etc.”) Or does that only apply to female leaders?

    They loved ‘a fair shake of the sauce bottle’. Because Queenslander. 🙂

    Anyway, I don’t think Dr Chalmers’ accent is anything other than Working Class, which you’ll find a lot of people in Australia also identify as.

  2. meher baba @ #849 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 2:19 pm

    c@tmomma: “Better to jump to the new generation of leaders, Clare O’Neill and Jim Chalmers.”

    As I think you know, I prefer Husic to Chalmers. But I agree re O’Neil (the single “l “is tricky. And I always have to check whether it’s “Clare” or “Claire”: it’s the former, of course).

    Lol, our first Muslim PM. I don’t think the electorate is quite ready for that one yet. And, yes, I know he’s not devout but it was enough for the Liberals to keep him out of politics in the first instance.

  3. meher baba @ #844 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 2:15 pm

    mundo: “Given enough time I think Chalmers would be a chance. The only caveat being his apparent lack of ‘dog’…but, given the opportunity, who knows.”

    If Chalmers does become leader, I wonder if all the chardonnay socialists I know will be as scathing about his ocker accent as they were of Gillard’s? (“She talks like a moron, etc.”) Or does that only apply to female leaders?

    Odd really, the only ‘posh’ speaking PM in my lifetime so far was Fraser….and Malcolm could bung it on a bit…..

  4. Swimming against the tide here, but I think Albanese is a big chance to win the next election on the back of his Howard-esque cash bribe (childcare) to the outer urbs.

  5. mundo @ #842 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 2:13 pm

    Pretty sure Labor is resigned to sticking with Albo and gettin’ a hiding at the next election.
    Would explain a lot about their lack of rage and enthusiasm.

    Yes, the evidence seems to point this way. But, I also think that unless they change course, Labor will live to regret this. The votes they will lose at the next election they will never, ever recover. And, you’d have to say, quite rightly so – who would ever again support a party that just gives up when things get a little too tough for them?

  6. mundo @ #850 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 2:23 pm

    meher baba @ #844 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 2:15 pm

    mundo: “Given enough time I think Chalmers would be a chance. The only caveat being his apparent lack of ‘dog’…but, given the opportunity, who knows.”

    If Chalmers does become leader, I wonder if all the chardonnay socialists I know will be as scathing about his ocker accent as they were of Gillard’s? (“She talks like a moron, etc.”) Or does that only apply to female leaders?

    Odd really, the only ‘posh’ speaking PM in my lifetime so far was Fraser….and Malcolm could bung it on a bit…..

    …and Pig iron Bob…

  7. Albo may not be sucking up to the green-tinted/Labor-phobic sacks of misery that populate PB.

    Albo would do well to champion left-wing economic populism: free health care, free education, free public transport, free aged care, free child care, full employment, a Job Guarantee, a four-day working week, six weeks of paid annual leave, publicly owned renewable energy assets, lower electricity bills, fibre-to-the-premises Internet, lower telecommunications bills, free bank services, much bigger investments in research and development.

  8. Ah Obama:

    I think about the classic male hero in American culture when you and I were growing up: the John Waynes, the Gary Coopers, the Jimmy Stewarts, the Clint Eastwoods … Even if you are someone who is annoyed by wokeness and political correctness and wants men to be men again and is tired about everyone complaining about the patriarchy, I thought that the model wouldn’t be Richie Rich—the complaining, lying, doesn’t-take-responsibility-for-anything type of figure.

  9. Nicholas @ #854 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 2:26 pm

    Albo may not be sucking up to the green-tinted/Labor-phobic sacks of misery that populate PB.

    Albo would do well to champion left-wing economic populism: free health care, free education, free public transport, free aged care, free child care, full employment, a Job Guarantee, a four-day working week, six weeks of paid annual leave, publicly owned renewable energy assets, lower electricity bills, fibre-to-the-premises Internet, lower telecommunications bills, free bank services, much bigger investments in research and development.

    Oh dear, Scrooter’s COMMUNIST TAKE OVER OF STRAYA ads write themselves….

  10. c@tmomma: “Anyway, I don’t think Dr Chalmers’ accent is anything other than Working Class, which you’ll find a lot of people in Australia also identify as.”

    Gillard’s was working class too. As was Hawke’s (which some say was the consequence of a reverse form of what Thatcher allegedly did with her accent).

    Whatever happens, supporters of Chalmers should avoid using the “Dr” bit. It didn’t help Evatt or Hewson, or Cairns for that matter. I’ve no idea if this is true, but a political heavy once swore blind to me that an Opposition leader subsequent to Evatt had all but completed the requirements for a PhD but chose never to graduate because he thought it would be detrimental to him in the eyes of the public.

  11. When newsltd hacks and other pro coalition media hacks claim that there is going to be a leadership spill in the Labor camp

    It turns to be the liberal party who changes leader
    after the 2013 federal election
    2013-2015
    Newsltd hacks and pro coalition media hacks attack Shorten claiming his position is in danger

    Result liberal party leadership change
    Abbott – Turnbull
    after the 2016 federal election
    2016-2018
    Newsltd hacks and pro coalition media hacks attack Shorten claiming his position is in danger

    Result liberal party leadership change
    Turnbull – Morrison

    after the 2019 federal election

    Newsltd hacks and pro coalition media hacks attack Albanese claiming his position is in danger

    2019-2021
    Result possible liberal party leadership change
    Morrison – whoever is anti climate change

  12. c@t: “I think about the classic male hero in American culture when you and I were growing up: the John Waynes, the Gary Coopers, the Jimmy Stewarts, the Clint Eastwoods … Even if you are someone who is annoyed by wokeness and political correctness and wants men to be men again and is tired about everyone complaining about the patriarchy, I thought that the model wouldn’t be Richie Rich—the complaining, lying, doesn’t-take-responsibility-for-anything type of figure.”

    Totally fair comment, but also interesting in a number of other ways. Is Obama subtly suggesting that he too is getting a bit sick of wokeness? He never struck me as being all that woke: far less so than Hillary, for instance.

  13. The political party in Australia who is under the most pressure in policies issues , Biden winning the presidency , is the Liberal/National partys

    Liberal/National partys have been lapdogs to the likes of Trump in climate change denial , corona virus open the borders ,etc

    Joe Biden is the opposite , hence why Morrison is not 100% guaranteed to be the leader of the federal liberal party at the upcoming federal election

    The foreign corrupt Murdoch and his cronies will likely force the libs change to a climate denier leader

  14. meher baba:

    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 2:12 pm

    [‘Well, it’s likely that Thatcher’s own voice and manner were largely the product of acting coaches as well.’]

    Well, while there’s some truth in that, theirs is still quite an accomplishment, made even more so given they were both born in the US. And it seems Thatcher didn’t have formal voice-coaching.

    https://www.workingvoices.com/insights/busting-the-margaret-thatcher-voice-coaching-myth/

  15. MB
    “Well, it’s likely that Thatcher’s own voice and manner were largely the product of acting coaches as well.

    Rumour has it that she started life with a bit of a cockney accent.”

    In my experience most “posh” British accents are bunged on. Travelling around England the local accents all sound quite different. Whereas an Adelaide engineer I know who attended school at Eton and then migrated here is careful not to speak like that. It is an affectation.

  16. Mavis: “Well, while there’s some truth in that, theirs is still quite an accomplishment, made even more so given they were both born in the US. ”

    Anderson, I believe, has lived extensively in both countries. I saw her being interviewed about her role as Thatcher and – given Agent Scully’s somewhat southern drawl – was astonished to find that her natural accent sounds more British than American.

  17. Also what’s predictable from the newsltd hacks

    Morrison and his cronies are in more trouble

    Robodebt
    (state and territory) refusing to Open the borders
    Corruption

    Look at Labor

    Newsltd hacks continue to show why there has to be corruption inquiry into newsltd and other media

  18. rhwombat @ #780 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 11:18 am

    Cud Chewer @ #3921 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 11:35 am

    rhw

    I find that odd because there are safety measures and protocols to avoid exactly that kind of transmission. What you’re saying here is someone took off her gloves and didn’t wash her hands.

    Yep. Happens all the time, but there is rarely a biological marker as definite as SARS-CoV-2 to prove it. Ever watched where and when people put their fingers when they come out of nominated high-risk situations? I have. Engineering & process solutions work on populations, not individuals. Biology is always contingent and usually a localised reversal of overall probabilities.

    Which is why, coming back to my point, characterising how this cluster started as ‘extraordinary’ and then launching into fine detail is nothing but diversion. Feeding the chickens to avoid accountability. They should have known this was possible – even likely. With the risk so high they should have had layers of protections beyond the initial ‘wear gloves and wash your hands etc’. Risk assessment 101. And the off-hand excuse that nobody else has regulated testing of hotel quarantine cleaning staff is a pretty poor dodge.

    When you do risk assessment and put in place control measures you must be honest with yourself about the holes in your plan. Control measures were described to me as slices of swiss cheese. The slices have holes in them…. so you put in layers of controls so that when all the slices are put in together there is no way through…. or it is at least caught early enough to avoid.

    Groupthink optimism took over this process. A failure that goes to the top echelons of SAHealth.

    And the statements by Spurrier saying she had been concerned about these risks for a few weeks now is…. well…. not good enough. She is the Chief Health Officer. She also says that they are simply not able to test these staff every 2 days and doing it every week would dissuade them from being tested if symptoms occur in the meantime; I call that weak coffee.

    People make mistakes – even highly qualified highly intelligent people. Systems make mistakes. A committee full of highly qualified and intelligent people can make mistakes (as SAHealth did wrt schools – twice). We know that. Do they?

  19. C@tmomma
    Would depend on who the Liberal leader was because i can’t see Josh Frydenberg liking attacks on his mate’s faith but if it was Porter Morrison or Dutton then they probably would tolerate it.

  20. I don’t think accents are an issue any more. Matt Canavan is barely articulate. His diction makes Marn Ferguson sound like Richard Burton.

  21. SK, thanks for the analogy.

    Control measures were described to me as slices of swiss cheese. The slices have holes in them…. so you put in layers of controls so that when all the slices are put in together there is no way through…. or it is at least caught early enough to avoid.

    Hence why the supposed efficiency of monolithic security systems is such a brittle design. They do pander to control freaks, but.

  22. The number of coronavirus cases in the Parafield cluster has risen to 22, with federal health minister Greg Hunt announcing two more.

    Premier Steven Marshall this morning said there was one new case, a close contact of the known Parafield cluster.

    This afternoon, Mr Hunt revealed two more but said none came from community transmission beyond the family and close contacts. He also described SA’s response as “a model of early intervention”.

  23. c@t: “Lol, our first Muslim PM. I don’t think the electorate is quite ready for that one yet. And, yes, I know he’s not devout but it was enough for the Liberals to keep him out of politics in the first instance.”

    I actually think his religion would pose a problem for the Coalition, who would have to be very careful about how they go about attacking him.

    Anyway, he’s urbane and witty and thereby the antithesis of an Islamic terrorist. Waleed Aly seems to be an extremely popular public figure, so why not Ed?

    And his friendship with Frydenberg is also a plus in terms of puff pieces.

    My main concern with him is that he’s been kept out of the action for far too long. I hope we’ll see a lot more from him now he’s back in shadow cabinet.

  24. Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has announced three extra cases of coronavirus have been identified within South Australia’s Parafield cluster.

    A spokesman for South Australian Health Minister Stephen Wade confirmed the cases, saying they were in addition to one case announced this morning.

    The spokesman said it brought the total number of confirmed and suspected cases in the Parafield cluster to 23.

    Premier Steven Marshall told State Parliament there were “in excess of 5,300 tests conducted yesterday”.

    He said the virus was transferred to a cleaner at a medi-hotel “via a surface” and that they believe she infected security guards but none were symptomatic.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/more-cases-added-to-northern-adelaide-coronavirus-cluster/12891846

  25. This morning’s “Minnesota” section in the Star Tribune — 10.5 pages of obituaries in a 16-page section. pic.twitter.com/ONylhnDXgz

    — Colleen Kelly (@onecolleen) November 15, 2020

  26. Albo at Tomago aluminium smelter today – in the heart of Newscastle – and the biggest single electricity user in the nation….

  27. Simon

    It tok a lot of dead people but they did eventually figure out how to make planes extremely reliable.

    It is not beyond the wit of man to make quarantine even half as reliable, is it?

  28. Back in the USA, Georgia, the Republicans are fighting.

    “I’m an engineer. We look at numbers. We look at hard data,” Raffensperger said. “I can’t help it that a failed candidate like Collins is running around lying to everyone. He’s a liar.”

    Raffensperger (Governor of GA) said he was stunned that Graham (chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee) appeared to suggest that he find a way to toss legally cast ballots. Absent court intervention, Raffensperger doesn’t have the power to do what Graham suggested because counties administer elections in Georgia. “It sure looked like he was wanting to go down that road,” Raffensperger said.

    Graham denied that he had suggested that Raffensperger toss legal ballots, calling that characterization “ridiculous.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/brad-raffensperger-georgia-vote/2020/11/16/6b6cb2f4-283e-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html

  29. Could you not have the cleaners and hotel quarantine security guards stay in the hotel free of charge for the duration, say a month, then quarantine for two weeks in the hotel. They could then take an appropriate time of before repeating.

    This would have to cost less than the resulting lockdowns etc.

  30. sprocket_

    “We’ve hit peak Gold Coast…stripper and star of an Ultra Tune ad caught doing cocaine from the buttocks of another woman with her police officer ex-boyfriend has been fined $1500.’”

    My life seems so pedestrian by comparison…

  31. It was a post in praise of Maggie T (who I think is undervalued by the political left), so perhaps fair enough.”

    Undervalued? She’d be just about at the top of the list in the Labour/Labor Demonology.

  32. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 2:26 pm
    Albo may not be sucking up to the green-tinted/Labor-phobic sacks of misery that populate PB…

    Albo would do well to champion [lots of free stuff]……

    …and a partridge in a pear tree….

  33. Could the Moderator please tell me why I am not allowed to edit my comments anymore when I notice a spelling error or word in the wrong place?

    Rather than work on lingering issues with the site such as the absence of comments pagination, I have been hard at work programming new obstructions that only apply to you.

  34. William Bowe @ #894 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 4:10 pm

    Could the Moderator please tell me why I am not allowed to edit my comments anymore when I notice a spelling error or word in the wrong place?

    Rather than work on lingering issues with the site such as the absence of comments pagination, I have been hard at work programming new obstructions that only apply to you.

    That’s ever so kind of you. 🙂

  35. Late Riser @ #885 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 3:11 pm

    Good job SA health. So far the outbreak looks a lot like the one we had in Qld in August. Go hard & go early. The tone is set.

    They arent going too hard yet. There can still be 100 peeps drinking in a pub. Not saying if that isnt hard enough (they will monitor distancing and taken names and ph numbers etc) but it isnt an Auckland style shut.

    And yes, the response team are doing amazing work. The tracers. The media team. And the testers and pathology. As are the thousands of people coming forward to get tested. Good stuff. Possibly the weather has helped and that many South Australians were still using sanitiser, washing their hands, keeping their distance etc. I suggest the lessons from Victoria may have had a hand in that.

  36. a r @ #891 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 4:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #839 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 1:11 pm

    Could the Moderator please tell me why I am not allowed to edit my comments anymore when I notice a spelling error or word in the wrong place?

    Doubt it’s deliberate. The entire site was hacked and the restored from a backup not that long ago.

    I WAS kind of being facetious. I thought it may have been some sort of by-product of the whole shemozzle recently. I just thought I’d bring it to the attention of the God Mod. 🙂

  37. Turnbull doesn’t hold back – on 7.30 tonight(?)

    Malcolm Turnbull has accused Prime Minister Scott Morrison of working as “a team” with News Corp newspapers and Sky TV.

    The former prime minister has joined Kevin Rudd in backing a petition for a royal commission into media diversity and the role of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation, which they both believe is a malevolent and partisan force in Australian political life.

    In his recent memoir Mr Turnbull accused Mr Murdoch of bringing his prime ministership down.

    “Morrison, I think, has determined not to suffer the same fate I did from the right of the Liberal Party in the Murdoch press,” he told 7.30.

    “So Morrison is cleaving very closely to the Murdoch press, and they are backing him up.

    “They’re not holding him to account for failings, and they’re criticising his opponents. And yeah, they’re operating like a team.”

    ‘News Corp is now essentially propaganda’

    While the petition has more than 500,000 signatures, it has failed to secure a royal commission so far. Instead, the Greens will hold a Senate inquiry.

    “The critical thing, you have to recognise that News Corp is now essentially propaganda. It’s a political organisation that employs a lot of journalists,” Mr Turnbull said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/scott-morrison-murdoch-media-like-a-team-turnbull-says/12891218

  38. meher baba @ #889 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 4:04 pm

    sprocket_

    “We’ve hit peak Gold Coast…stripper and star of an Ultra Tune ad caught doing cocaine from the buttocks of another woman with her police officer ex-boyfriend has been fined $1500.’”

    My life seems so pedestrian by comparison…

    Don’t worry too much, it’s not the sort of thing that predisposes itself well to falling through the cracks. 😀

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