On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

• Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

Comments Page 16 of 21
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  1. Mavis @ #723 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    No matter how you posit them, these metrics aren’t pretty:

    [‘Scott Morrison’s approval rating in the latest Guardian Essential poll is back to 66%, and he remains ahead of Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister 53% to 24%…’]

    Despite Morrison leading a government that’s highly incompetent, corrupt, his personal numbers have improved, probably on the back of C.19, the only saving grace is that Labor’s still competitive in terms of the 2PP.

    If no one tells the punters how incompetent and corrupt Scrooter & Co are they just see the front of house window dressing which they’re quite happy with.
    Anthony Albanese may be the greatest shining knight of goodness in the realm but he is a totally crap opposition leader. He inspires no one. He generates no enthusiasm. He is for all intents and purposes invisible.
    The Morrison shambles will be returned with an increased majority at the next election.
    Albo will then, hopefully, take the hint and hand over to Chalmers…..who may well do worse.
    That’s how bad things are.

  8. Back of house people:
    One of my favourite Whitlam quote which never gets an airing.
    During the dismissal Kerr’s Emissary, David Smith was worried by the incipient riot on parliament’s steps and initially read the dissolution in an office inside.
    Whitlam: Kerr and his lackies are too ashamed to make the declaration public and are destroying Australian democracy “in the back passages of parliament house. That’s what they are – they are all back passage men”
    Hearing this Smith came to the steps and the famous scene and quote followed with Whitlam seizing on the Royal Ejaculation.

  9. Oakeshott Country @ #743 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    Back of house people:
    One of my favourite Whitlam quote which never gets an airing.
    During the dismissal Kerr’s Vassal, David Smith was worried by the incipient riot on parliament’s steps and initially read the dissolution in an office inside.
    Whitlam: Kerr and his lackies are too ashamed to make the declaration public and are “destroying Australian democracy in the back passages of parliament house. That’s what they are – they are all back passage men”
    Hearing this Smith came to the steps and the famous scene and quote followed with Whitlam seizing on the Royal Ejaculation.

    Ah yes….Whitlam to Albo….makes you weep

  13. He certainly branded the Democrats very effectively with socialism, defunding the police, shutting down the country and ending fracking. Biden escaped, but a lot of down-ballot Democrats didn’t.

    Don’t really agree with that assessment. Any assertion that voters actually pay attention to the down-ballot candidates/races in a presidential election year in the US is automatically suspect. US voters aren’t that engaged.

    Biden benefited from the Republican-leaning never-Trump cohort who voted a split ticket, and also from the (not insignificant) cohort who votes for an obstructed government (because “checks and balances”) and who, expecting a thumping Biden win, would have done the same. People voting a split Biden/Rep ticket will of course help Biden at the expense of the down-ballot races.

    Don’t think there’s any credible evidence to suggest Trump was any more/less effective than any other Republican candidate at branding the Democrats as socialist commies, or that the electorate at large opposes lockdowns and supports fracking. Aside from maybe the swing in Miami-Dade, which supports the socialist/commies thing, but not the rest (and appears to have been fairly well localized).

  14. Scrooter was back of house, moved to the middle and is now front of house.
    Albo is backyard of the house left corner behind garage under the choko vine near the chook house.

  15. Hot off the presses Donald tweet which WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING!!!
    Big victory moments ago in the State of Nevada. The all Democrat County Commissioner race, on same ballot as President, just thrown out because of large scale voter discrepancy. Clark County officials do not have confidence in their own election security. Major impact!

    In fact the election for Ward C of Clark County Commissioners has been invalidated because the margin was 10 votes. Last time I looked the margin for the presidential race was something like 499,999 % more than this

  17. a r

    The interesting question for me is how this plays out in the Georgia Senate runoffs. Do the never-Trumpers stay on holiday? Do the Trumpists get bored? Can the Dems motivate their voters? Its a real chance.

  18. Europe is still in the news.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/16/major-breakthrough-needed-to-avert-no-deal-brexit-says-irish-minister
    The article triggers two distinct thoughts. First, the EU is openly nervous about the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations. Second, the EU and the UK are each ambitious for themselves, in the sense of creating a strong individual identity.

    First: A nervous EU

    A European parliament vote to seal a Brexit trade deal could be delayed until 28 December, three days before the end of the transition period, under an emergency EU plan.

    “If there is not a major breakthrough over the next week to 10 days then I think we really are in trouble and the focus will shift to preparing for a no trade deal and all the disruption that that brings.”

    The British tactics are working. A nervous opposition is more likely to grant concessions.

    Second: A matter if identity

    But there is no agreement on a mechanism for maintaining similar baseline environmental, labour and social standards in the years to come. The UK insists it will not tie itself to the Brussels rulebook.

    I find this perspective confusing, since I imagine that the EU would be similarly tying itself to the UK’s rule book and the UK does not want this. So either the UK wants to water down its environmental, labour and social rules, or it deep down really sees it’s relationship with the EU in Master/Slave terms. The latter reason would explain why words like “sovereignty” and “freedom” keep popping up in the UK’s political language.

    What is interesting in that context is that Macron also uses the word sovereignty, in his case to describe a united Europe standing on it’s own against both the USA and China. For example, Macron argues for a European army and reworking NATO. (search for “macron sovereignty”)

  20. Cud Chewer @ #3894 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 10:55 am

    Simon

    I’m intrigued as to what this “back of house” cleaner actually did. If her role never saw her enter a room it only adds more intrigue as to the route of infection. Also, when they clean rooms between guests, do they bring in specialist cleaners (who presumably are head to toe protected)?

    “Back of house” transmission is most likely to be contact from handling saliva contaminated implements like crockery and cutlery, not the room surfaces or the grossly touted aerosols. This is probably why almost all domestic transmission is meal related. They’re forked.

  22. rhw

    I find that odd because there are safety measures and protocols to avoid exactly that kind of transmission. What you’re saying here is someone took off her gloves and didn’t wash her hands.

  23. I am no fan of Albanese but this ongoing bullshit about how bad he is and how he does not cut through is pure bullshit.

    Every state and territory opposition leader in this country is struggling for relevance. The PM, premiers and chief ministers are in the right place at the right time. That is the reality at this time.

    On one hand the “ experts” sitting on their arses and doing little else demand Albanese take the fight to Morrison. On the other hand they lambast state liberal opposition leaders for being partisan and not supporting labor premiers and not putting the country first.

    Not one opposition leader in this country is within miles of their respective premiers in popularity. Those that attack are fucked and those that have supported generally the actions of state leaders are fucked.

    That is where we are at this point in time. The circuit breaker is certainly not changing leaders. That would achieve little.

    I do not know what, if anything, is going on internally within federal labor. A contest of ideas ? Dissatisfaction with Albanese ? Or simply Joel and a few others getting the shits with whatever.

    Albanese will reshuffle his front bench next month. A opportunity for some change there. But changing leaders ? Pointless.

    It is not a federal labor thing. It is not a Albanese thing. It is a opposition party and opposition leader thing in every state and territory. It is a covid thing and out of the hands of any and all opposition leaders.

  24. On the latest Sydney land sale scandal, this sounds potentially corrupt.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/secret-report-values-controversial-sydney-land-as-worthless-20201116-p56f33.html

    Acquiring contaminated land requiring remediation is a common issue for major infrastructure projects. The fact that they may be worth little or nothing (cost of remediation > value of land) is well known. Departmental staff could quickly obtain Valuer General estimates of land value. That would normally be one before any recommendation to purchase went up to the Minister for approval. There is no excuse for this.

    I note the lucky developer is the Billbergia company, owned by John and Bill Kinsella. I wonder if they have ever been political donors? This needs investigating. No wonder Sydney Light Rail cost twice as much as Gold Coast and four times as much as Canberra.

  26. With friends like mundo, Labor doesn’t need enemies.

    As I said earlier, it’s just too easy to take potshots from the comfort of your Tassie Air BnB. Without acknowledging the edifice that has been slowly, determinedly and thoroughly constructed against Labor in multifariously minute ways that nongs like mundo refuse to incorporate into their flip assessments. It’s an almost Sisyphean task to battle against it, especially when you are, yes, battling against a communications team that comes up with ideas to flood the zone like the Prime Minister attempting barre lessons (I’m amazed they didn’t have him in a tutu over his pants as well) and for whom the main game is to game what would normally be a system of checks and balances, the 4th Estate being a pillar of that in the past but no more. They are all rooting for Scott Morrison and Gladys Berejiklian and any other Liberal leader while they screw us(metaphorically), or their latest corrupt squeeze (Gladys) or pretty staffer (Tudge, Joyce and Porter).

    I guess that’s why the inane contributions of mundo rile me so much. They just don’t incorporate reality into their assessment. The ‘back of house’ reality.

  28. While acknowledging the media that Albanese is up against (and it is not likely to EVER change) can somebody please point out a single thing that he has achieved in the 18 months he has been opposition leader? I’ve tried, and maybe I’m looking in the wrong places, but I can’t think of a single positive. It’s like he just sits there, picking up a massive salary, waving through everything through that Morrison wants just to keep his miniscule media support on side.

    I’m at the age where I don’t think I can put up with another term of Morrison. I can’t even leave the country to escape this arsehole – not that I could the last time I went because he was all over the front pages due to his Hawaii antics. And yet, here he is and there Albo is. Is there anything that we can hope for? I’d dearly like for it to be the case but not only does he not appear to be doing the job, he doesn’t even look, act or sound like a leader.

  29. BK

    Small world. Glad you didn’t try to buy land from him.

    I remember when I first raised questions on this blog about Eddy Obeid’s unexplained wealth more than ten years ago now, and being fobbed off with assurances that Obeid was an “astute investor”. I am sure the Kinsella’s are astute too.

  30. The Morrison LNP take off their gloves and don’t wash their hands … so to speak!
    Mundo, you’re starting to resemble an end of season choko vine …. so to speak!!

  31. Cud Chewer @ #3921 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 11:35 am

    rhw

    I find that odd because there are safety measures and protocols to avoid exactly that kind of transmission. What you’re saying here is someone took off her gloves and didn’t wash her hands.

    Yep. Happens all the time, but there is rarely a biological marker as definite as SARS-CoV-2 to prove it. Ever watched where and when people put their fingers when they come out of nominated high-risk situations? I have. Engineering & process solutions work on populations, not individuals. Biology is always contingent and usually a localised reversal of overall probabilities.

  36. Trump thinks he on a winner by stating he won State of Nevada because the official counting for certification found only 936 votes that were invalid, 6 of those were people voting twice.

  37. I wonder if Scotty of the Skidmark will stop off in Hawaii to hide for awhile after using the Japan visit as an excuse to flee the latest Robodebt blow up, bonk ban blowup, and the latest round of Covid blow up?

    I can see the LNP wasting no time in jumping on this piece of bullshit as a way to distract attention away from their latest stuff ups.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/anonymous-dossier-alleging-bullying-hits-albanese-s-office-20201117-p56f7i.html

  38. Cud, BK

    No doubt the Kinsella boys are sharp and good at organising developments. But nobody gets paid that amount of money by government by mistake. There are quite effective systems to ensure that doesn’t happen. Somebody asked for it, and somebody approved it.

  40. Zerlo

    One of the other scams Trump’s lawyers have been pulling is pointing out how many “dead people” voted. Except that of the ones checked so far they were either still alive or alive on election day and died since. So they are presumably checking death records for names since the election then alleging they voted illegally. Cynical to say the least.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54874120

  41. Fomites – objects or materials which are likely to carry infection, such as clothes, utensils, and furniture. You can also add the LNP, One Notion, Clive Palmer, Murdoch and Fox just to name few more disease vectors.

  42. This is a very interesting paper for people to read who are interested in how a COVID-19 Vaccine may be successfully delivered to humans:

    Advances in mRNA Vaccines for Infectious Diseases

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6446947/

    It may be possible to use a nasal spray infused with LNPs (no, not them 😀 ), Lipid Nano Proteins, to administer the vaccine and to get a satisfactory response.

    Interestingly they discuss injections into dendrites and Intra Nodal injections, which is a new one on me. Also possibly via a patch containing micro needles (ref 166 for anyone interested).

    Fascinating stuff.

  47. mundo:

    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 10:46 am

    [‘Strayans sure love bad government.
    Bad government, bad opposition.
    What a combo!’]

    I think Morrison is in part still getting favourable personal numbers due to the public’s view that he’s doing a reasonable job with the pandemic but when a vaccine becomes available, the electorate could turn on him for his government’s abject failure on issues going to integrity. It’s the Opposition’s job to highlight the arrogant, corrupt ways the Morrison Government has treated the public purse, appointments to statutory bodies, funding of the ABC, Robodebt, and a plethora of other issues. Morrison seems fairly concerned that his government is increasingly being viewed as amoral. Albanese’s job is to ensure this perception becomes entrenched. He’s not there yet but calling for an RC into Robodebt is a start. In the new year, he must up the ante.

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