On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

Comments Page 15 of 21
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  1. Despite Laura Tingle doing normal journalism (so I hear) for one night, a reminder that it is still their ABC:
    “Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ABC radio news is “reporting” what the politician currently responsible for the long running and unlawful #Robodebt policy denies about the known harms, up to and including death, it has caused.
    Broadcasting lies and denials of ministers is the exact opposite of truth to power.”

  2. Bushfire Bill @ #698 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 8:37 am

    Berejiklian reminds me of the bank robber who escapes by pretending to be an onlooker.

    “There ought’a be more police on the streets,” she says to a passer-by, “to keep scum like that behind bars.”

    Then she slips away.

    She is the Premier of NSW. It’s a job for the hardest of hard-nosed politicians.

    ● Her boyfriend, lover, mate, fuckbuddy, whateveryouwanttocallhim, was one of its biggest Parliamentary grifters.

    ● She gave away a quarter of a billion dollars to politically allied councils with virtually no paperwork except a few emails, then had even those few scraps of paper shredded.

    ● Her government paid over $50 million for one of the most toxic, chemically contaminated pieces of land in the country, waiving the requirement that it be cleaned up before sale, and now faces anything from another $50 million to up to $700 million to remediate it.

    ● She ruined businesses in Sydney’s George St. In order to build a “light rail” line that cost triple it estimate and takes double the time to transport passengers to the end of the line.

    To all of the above she says she didn’t know what was going on right under her nose, but by jingo, someone ought’a do something about it!

    What a bloody disgrace she is.

    A good opposition would see her on the backbench or back on civi street by now.

  3. There is one possible upside to Trump’s obsession with losing the election. He seems to be spending so much time on being a sore loser that he has not (yet) done much to poison the ground for Biden on inauguration day.

    In a way, it is in the Democrats’ interests for Trump pursue his legal challenges and rallies right up until 20 January so that he has less time to make executive decisions.

  4. “a $1.2 Billion settlement”

    The explanatory link is a little opaque on what the settlement is. The true figure is what the court will be asked to approve.

    If the government was to pay or had paid the amounts back anyway then, as the link suggests, the measure of compensation is interest on the monies paid by the individual class member to the Cth which it has determined to repay while the money was in its possession.

    No payment to the Cth means no interest and no compensation although it remains to be seen if the approval of the settlement will extend to the reversing or cancellation of unpaid debts.

    https://gordonlegal.com.au/robodebt-class-action/robodebt-settlement-faqs/

  5. A good opposition would see her on the backbench or back on civi street by now.

    mundo completely ignoring the FACT that ‘a good NSW Labor Opposition, are the ones who have been bringing #GuiltyGladys’ out of sight, out of mind Coalition corruption moves to light. It’s certainly not the media that have uncovered them, it’s mainly been Labor’s Daniel Mookhey.

    mundo also ignoring the monolithic NSW media edifice in NSW, Murdoch, Sky, and 2GB/Nine, who have Gladys’ back and swing into action whenever she needs them to protect her back.

    But, hey, it’s just too easy to sit on your computer in your Air B’n’B in Tasmania and take pot shots. I guess it makes mundo feel like he’s contributing something of worth.

  6. Bushfire Bill,
    I was told of another little (actually big) scam #GuiltyGladys has perpetrated, the other night at dinner with some Labor lady insiders.

    She hasn’t disbursed the Snowy Hydro sale money ($1.2 Billion), to Local Councils (I’d imagine it’s probably the Labor ones), like she promised she was going to.

    So it’s no wonder Councils like Central Coast Council have run out of money!

  7. Expect more of this in the next 60-odd days.

    The Trump administration is asking oil and gas firms to pick spots where they want to drill in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as it races to open the pristine wilderness to development and lock in drilling rights before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

    The “call for nominations” to be published Tuesday in the Federal Register allows companies to identify tracts on which to bid during an upcoming lease sale on the refuge’s nearly 1.6 million acre coastal plain, a sale that the Interior Department aims to hold before Biden takes the oath of office in January. The move would be a capstone of President Trump’s efforts to open up public lands to logging, mining and grazing — something Biden strongly opposes.

    A GOP-controlled Congress in 2017 authorized drilling in the refuge, a vast wilderness that is home to tens of thousands of migrating caribou and waterfowl, along with polar bears and Arctic foxes.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/11/16/arctic-refuge-drilling-trump/

  8. “Has anyone thanked .
    @billshortenmp
    #centrelink #robodebt I will #ThanksBill”

    ***

    Labor flips on ‘robo-debt’ system Shorten, Plibersek pioneered

    Labor’s leadership team of Bill Shorten and Tanya Plibersek pioneered the “robo-debt” data-matching system Centrelink is using to target current and former welfare recipients for apparently not declaring their income properly — but they now argue it should be suspended.

    The automated system of matching income data from the tax office and income as reported to Centrelink to identify discrepancies was announced in a joint release­ by the then minister for human services, Ms Plibersek, and the then assistant treasurer, now Opposition Leader, in June 2011, adding an extra $71 million to the budget. The release said the “tax garnishee process had been carried out manually once a year for the past 15 years and involved a significant amount of time on the part of departmental officers”.

    “The automation of this process will free up resources and result­ in more people being referred to the tax garnishee process, retrieving more outstanding debt on behalf of taxpayers,” Mr Shorten said at the time.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nation/labor-flips-on-robodebt-system-shorten-plibersek-pioneered/news-story/0a2bb18f5a6ab279073f6bcd36f712d7

    Great work, Bill!

    Meanwhile…

    Greens send a Christmas Card to Minister Shorten

    The Australian Greens have today launched a ‘All I want for Christmas is a $50 increase in Newstart’ Christmas card campaign supporting a $50 per week increase to the inadequate payment.

    “Yesterday, the Senate Inquiry into Newstart tabled a report that clearly demonstrates the inadequacy of the Newstart payment,” Senator Rachel Siewert said today.

    “We are encouraging people to sign one of our cards and send them to Minister Shorten – calling on him and the Government to make a commitment to increasing Newstart.

    “An increase to Newstart is absolutely essential if we are to end the condemnation of people to poverty and end the intergenerational impacts this has on children.

    “This message has extra significance this Christmas, given that from January 1 up to 84,000 single parents will be dumped on to what we know is an inadequate payment.

    “It is poor policy for the Government to continue to punish vulnerable people in search of a small surplus, while at the same time they are wasting money on poor policies like income management.

    “A Government-commissioned report released yesterday shows that there is no measurable and clear evidence of any positive impact from income management. Despite this, the policy is being continued in the Northern Territory and is being expanded to other areas of the country under the Stronger Futures legislation.

    “Nationally, by the 2014/15 budget period, $1 billion will have been spent on Income Management.

    “The government is wasting a billion dollars on an approach that is failing to help people, yet they are willing to push single parents onto Newstart and not deliver the $50 per week increase the payment needs,” Senator Siewert concluded.

    https://greensmps.org.au/articles/greens-send-christmas-card-minister-shorten

    #ThanksBill #Not

  9. C@tmomma
    Are you claiming the $1.2 billion returned is a Labor ‘achievement’ ? Was it not from a class action ? A nothingburger is Labor’s use of an issue that the government and ministers should have been mercilessly hammered and hounded over.

  10. Firefox
    There is a very large and important difference between Labor’s “robodebt” and the Coalition’s. When someone was flagged under Labor an actual person would that it was correct. The Coalition sent them out automatically without checking for the sort of crap we saw.

  11. “Seventeen (now eighteen?) isn’t such a scary number when fifteen of them are from one extended family.”
    ————
    Extended families are a health hazard. They need to be regulated! 🙂

  12. Firefox
    That’s like saying “Labor used the *addition* operation in its process, and Robodebt uses that same *addition* operation. Omg Labor is the architect of Robodebt!”. That’s just nonsense.

    Fact is they (and you) are being disingenuous. Data matching or automated analysis was in use prior to 2015, but was not the sole basis/evidence used by the government to raise a debt. It was used to flag possible cases, which were then investigated by humans employed by the government. In 2015, that extra processing was dropped, debts were claimed solely on the basis of income averaging, and it was left to the “debtors” to prove they had no debt.

    Naturally it suits Mordor to shift the blame to Labor by (falsely) identifying Labor as the architect of the scheme, because that lets the Coalition escape blame/responsiblity.

    That’s not to say the process under Labor was free of flaws, but it was *not* standard practice to rely on income averaging to raise debts prior to 2015. The Coalition made it standard practice in 2015.

  13. poroti @ #581 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 9:29 am

    C@tmomma
    Are you claiming the $1.2 billion returned is a Labor ‘achievement’ ? Was it not from a class action ? A nothingburger is Labor’s use of an issue that the government and ministers should have been mercilessly hammered and hounded over.

    You’re leaving out two of the most important words that tie the Class Action by Gordon Legal to Labor:

    Bill Shorten

  14. I rarely get into the Greens bashing thing, but I have a real bee in my bonnet about Robodebt and the Murdoch loving so-called Firefox has got my goat on this one.

    Imagine quoting Murdoch’s rag to incorrectly support a totally dishonest argument pushed by Scummo to avoid responsibility for robodebt. Non has it – Firefox is faux!!

    Just to repeat again for the people who want to do Scummo and Murdoch’s dirty work and blame Labor.

    ‘Robodebt’ was not the program that matched tax and Centrelink records to identify anomalies.

    For the terminally doctrinaire Stalinists like Fauxfox, I’ll put it in capitals:

    ROBODEBT WAS THE PROCESS OF ISSUING DEBT NOTICES BASED PURELY ON THE MATCHES IN THE PROGRAM WITHOUT PRIOR HUMAN CONSIDERATION.

    That was all the work of the vile criminal scum that have run our country up to now. Not Shorten, not Plibersek, not Gillard, not Labor.

  15. I see. So the gov screwing over vulnerable people is only a problem when the other side of the duopoly are the ones in gov doing it. How convenient!

    Labor setup “Robodebt”, punted struggling single parents onto Newstart/Jobseeker, and refused repeated calls from the Greens to increase the rate of the payment.

    Eight odd years later, we now see the catastrophic results of the neglect, abuse and mismanagement that successive Lib/Lab governments have imposed on the most disadvantaged in the country.

  16. Let me reinforce what I just said:

    Robodebt WAS NOT the matching of the data to flag potential overpayments.

    Robodebt WAS the issuing of debt notices robotically driven solely by the matching of that data.

  17. No matter how you posit them, these metrics aren’t pretty:

    [‘Scott Morrison’s approval rating in the latest Guardian Essential poll is back to 66%, and he remains ahead of Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister 53% to 24%…’]

    Despite Morrison leading a government that’s highly incompetent, corrupt, his personal numbers have improved, probably on the back of C.19, the only saving grace is that Labor’s still competitive in terms of the 2PP.

  18. I’ve been listening to Richard Fidler’s reading of his history of Prague. Totally fascinating.

    I’ve just listened to the bit where the 1930s communists in Czechoslovakia turned their opinions on a dime depending on what new position Stalin took. Reminded me immediately of the Greens who posted here. Especially the bit where they all saw the Nazis as good guys as soon as Stalin signed his pact with Hitler.

  19. Full Essential poll here. Worth looking at the various supplementary questions.

    https://essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Essential-Report-161120-v2.pdf

    See pages 21 & 22 for Trump & Biden favourability ratings with Australians opinions on the US election. Trump’s favourability falls to 21% from 28% before the election, which is the same number of people who strongly or somewhat agree with “The main reason Donald Trump lost the election is that many people voted illegally”

    Kevin Bonham on twitter has pointed out there are issues with agree/disagree questions.
    https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10054

  20. Annabel Crabb
    @annabelcrabb
    Works out to about 240,000 Cartier watches.

    Federal Government ends Robodebt class action with settlement worth $1.2 billion
    Federal Government settles class action lawsuit over Robodebt scheme
    The Federal Government agrees to settle a class action lawsuit over its controversial Robodebt recovery program, which raised debts against more than 370,000 Australians.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-16/government-response-robodebt-class-action/12886784?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_content=twitter&utm_campaign=abc_news_web

  21. Firefox,

    You’ve had a pretty good run here lately. Sometimes you just have to admit you were wrong. No-one will think any less of you.

  22. Firefox says:
    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 9:52 am
    I see.

    ___________________________________

    You see nothing but the latest instructions from Socialist Left Weekly Trotsky neo-Stalin Putin Russia Today disinformation central.

  23. Spray says:
    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 9:59 am
    Firefox,

    No-one will think any less of you.

    ____________________________

    Nobody can do the impossible.

  24. C@t:

    Did you listen to today’s Bulwark podcast? Charlie is a bit of a calming influence. The more I listen to his shows the less I worry about the fuss and carry on from Team Trump and the GOP.

  25. “Labor flips on ‘robo-debt’ system Shorten, Plibersek pioneered”

    Oh f*ck off Firefox. Labor didn’t ‘pioneer’ Robodebt. You’ve tipped your hand by citing ‘The Australian’. Make up your mind whether you’re a Greenie or a Tory.

  26. DisplayName

    The point is that Labor did not set up Robodebt.

    Indeed , this is the !@##$ who added the “robo”. A real fanboi of it when Social Services ministers and when Treasurer. FMD ,how bad was that government to have Scrott as Treasurer ?

  27. The emerging shenanigans also known as the multi tens of billions throw away for French submarines will become known as the greatest act of self serving disregard for governmental proprietary, transparency and honesty even seen in Australia’s short history.
    The present crop of LNP miscreants will be far far away, together with their ill gotten rewards by the time the nation finally awakes to the enormity of these crimes.
    SA panics and the PM sends in the troops! What a complete deadshit!
    Meanwhile back at the News Corp control centre the hacks beat themselves into a frenzy, promoting Opposition leadership speculation.

  28. Goll

    Pissing tens of billions up the wall on a temporary network that needs scrapping and replacing at the cost of more tens of billions has got to be up there with the submarines.

  29. Premier Steven Marshall told Seven’s Sunrise program it was an extraordinary situation.
    “This was a back of house person working in the hotel that we believe acquired it from coming into surface contact, so they never came into contact with anybody in a room.”

    The BS is thick this morning.
    How is catching Covid from a surface in a Covid quarantine room “extraordinary”?

  30. Water from Murray-Darling Basin plan not being delivered to wetlands, Australian-first report finds

    Overall, only 2 per cent of all the wetlands throughout the Murray-Darling Basin that could be inundated with environmental water controlled by the Federal Government were actually watered each year, [Professor Pittock] said.

    “This is a $13 billion reform program, and we think that the Australian public would expect a better rate of return than 2 per cent per year,” he told the ABC.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/murray-darling-missing-water-in-floodplains/12887342

  31. poroti:

    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 10:04 am

    [‘…how bad was that government to have Scrott as Treasurer ?’]

    As bad as the government that has Morrison as its leader; Frydenberg, its treasurer; Taylor, Robert, Porter, Tudge, Cash, Colbeck, ministers. Yet Morrison’s numbers are moving north.

  32. Confessions @ #598 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 10:03 am

    C@t:

    Did you listen to today’s Bulwark podcast? Charlie is a bit of a calming influence. The more I listen to his shows the less I worry about the fuss and carry on from Team Trump and the GOP.

    ‘fess,
    I will!

    Did you read Maureen Dowd’s latest NYT piece from today’s Dawn Patrol? Deliciously catty 🙂

    Though she also makes the serious points about his attacks on the Democrats and how that affected their other races beyond POTUS:

    He certainly branded the Democrats very effectively with socialism, defunding the police, shutting down the country and ending fracking. Biden escaped, but a lot of down-ballot Democrats didn’t.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-the-deluded-diva-still-demanding-his-close-up-20201115-p56epv.html

  33. Goll @ #601 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 10:14 am

    The emerging shenanigans also known as the multi tens of billions throw away for French submarines will become known as the greatest act of self serving disregard for governmental proprietary, transparency and honesty even seen in Australia’s short history.
    The present crop of LNP miscreants will be far far away, together with their ill gotten rewards by the time the nation finally awakes to the enormity of these crimes.
    SA panics and the PM sends in the troops! What a complete deadshit!
    Meanwhile back at the News Corp control centre the hacks beat themselves into a frenzy, promoting Opposition leadership speculation.

    Situation Normal in Australia then. I don’t know why anyone expects anything different. What with the ever tightening grip on the minds of the nation that Faux News/Sky/Murdoch/Nine/Stokes and a craven and cowed ABC have.

  34. CC
    Agree about the temporary network v subs clash. The temporary network x 2 has however provided some jobs. (despite many of the resulting jobs taken up by temporary visa holders).
    The French Subs will go the way of subs in the newspaper industry!
    The Subs will need to be updated with new technology in 2035 even if they ever arrive.
    Meanwhile the Morrison LNP will continue to make grandiose statements while persecuting the poor.

  35. Mavis @ #740 Tuesday, November 17th, 2020 – 10:26 am

    poroti:

    Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 10:04 am

    [‘…how bad was that government to have Scrott as Treasurer ?’]

    As bad as the government that has Morrison as its leader; Frydenberg, its treasurer; Taylor, Robert, Porter, Tudge, Cash, Colbeck, ministers. Yet Morrison’s numbers are moving north.

    Strayans sure love bad government.
    Bad government, bad opposition.
    What a combo!

  36. K.
    The LNP are very familiar with “back of the house” types. It’s a fundamental tenet of the LNP two tier platform.
    The LNP make statements for the poor and statements for the bank accounts of the few.

  37. Simon

    I’m intrigued as to what this “back of house” cleaner actually did. If her role never saw her enter a room it only adds more intrigue as to the route of infection. Also, when they clean rooms between guests, do they bring in specialist cleaners (who presumably are head to toe protected)?

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