A draft state redistribution has been published for New South Wales, for which you can see the maps on the New South Wales Electoral Commission site. Keep an eye on Ben Raue’s post at The Tally Room, which should also have a user-friendly interactive map of the old and new boundaries. His existing post also goes into greater detail on describing the changes than I’m about to.
The biggest changes involves the abolition of Lakemba, most of which is now in a radically redrawn Bankstown, whose existing territories are mostly absorbed by surrounding electorates. This allows for the creation of the new seat of Leppington in Sydney’s sprawling south-west, drawing most of its voters from Mulgoa, Liverpool, Holsworthy and Macquarie Fields. As shown below, I reckon this seat to be marginal Labor. The local rearrangement arising from the creation of Leppington causes Mulgoa to resume its earlier name of Badgerys Creek. Other cases of seats essentially being renamed are Kellyville, formerly Baulkham Hills; St Ives, formerly Davidson; Wahroonga, formerly Ku-ring-gai; and Winston Hills, formerly Seven Hills.
Now for my quick and dirty effort to estimate the margins, using a somewhat experimental method, though the results look plausible enough to my untrained eye. This uses two-party preferred data, and thus acts as if Greens and independent members don’t exist (I am indebted to Ben Raue for providing this in easily accessible form on his site). By this reckoning, a big loser would appear to be Lee Evans, the Liberal member for Heathcote, whose seat is set to become notionally Labor by moving into the northern end of the Illawarra. Rising Labor hopeful Chris Minns has his delicate margin in Kogarah reduced to essentially nothing; conversely, a small Nationals margin almost disappears in Upper Hunter. Sydney would go from Liberal to just slightly notionally Labor if it wasn’t held by an independent.
13 comments on “NSW state draft redistribution published”
It will be interesting to see if money is poured into the new seat of Leppington to garner local support.
Isn’t that a done deal – it looks like it borders the airport site
They have certainly poured some money into the seat of Rockdale. Our local council, Botany, was merged with Rockdale, to form the abortion currently known as Bayside. Same name as the one in Melbourne but without the council mowers. The standout feature of this merger is that the two councils do not share a common border with a little matter of Kingsford-Smith International separating them. And today, the rubber hit the road. We got our “Rate Harmonisation” notice. Mandated by the state government and the upshot is that we will now pay north of $300 extra pa. Apparently to compensate the voters of Rockdale. Surely there’s a vote or three in this for Berejiklian. Thanks Glad. Woo Hoo even. Did you want to know about this?
I suppose the good news is that the resident clown/concern troll isn’t here to tells us how toast she is.
Broadly, the redistribution seems to favour the ALP.
East Hills, Penrith and Upper Hunter have become notionally even more marginal for the Coalition, and Heathcote becoming notionally a new Labor seat.
Interesting set of data, thanks William.
Maybe Alpo. Then again. Kogarah now in play while UH and Penrith remain notionally Liberal. I also think the assumed Leppington margin is very friendly to the ALP. Wish it could be Gladys v Jodie tomorrow!!
Interested in the Holsworthy Electorate – was all of Menai and Bangor used in the formation of the above result, or just the parts that are actually going into the seat according to the redistribution maps (Menai and Bangor are being split in half – with half going into Holsworthy and the other half going into Miranda).
My method involves allocating votes to ABS mesh blocks (which typically have around 150 people in them) from the nearest polling booths, so in effect a share of the vote cast at polling booths in the Menai/Bangor area has been transferred from Holsworthy to Miranda.
William is there a margin of error in yr estimated 2pps? if so how much?
Shellbell @ #1 Tuesday, November 10th, 2020 – 6:03 pm
The Leppington Triangle will certainly get a solid run off a standing start from Labor, that’s for sure.
#GuiltyGladys cutting corners so she can give everyone in NSW a Restaurant Voucher:
Is this the new general thread or not? Seems remarkably silent.