Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am. Both elections use statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold. There will be at least 71 MPs elected in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and at least 130 in Berlin.
At the 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, the centre-left SPD won 34 of the 79 seats on 39.6% of the vote, the populist right AfD 14 seats on 16.7%, the conservative CDU 12 seats on 13.3%, the Left party nine seats on 9.9%, the Greens five seats on 6.3% and the pro-business FDP five seats on 5.8%. A governing coalition of the SPD and Left was formed.
Polls for today’s election have the AfD just ahead of the SPD with both in the 30s, followed by the Left in the low double digits, the CDU at 6-7%, the Greens at 5% and the economically left but socially right BSW at 3-5%. It will be easier for the SPD to form a left-wing government if the Greens clear the 5% threshold.
At the 2023 Berlin election, the CDU won 52 of the 159 seats on 28.2% of the vote, the SPD 34 seats on 18.4%, the Greens 34 seats on 18.4%, the Left 22 seats on 12.2% and the AfD 17 seats on 9.1%. Although the combined left parties held a majority of seats, the CDU and SPD formed a governing coalition.
In Berlin, parties that win at least one of the 78 single-member electorates using first-past-the-post are exempt from the 5% threshold. Polls for today’s election have the Left just ahead of the CDU with both in the low 20s, followed by the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 15-16%, the SPD at 10-12% and the BSW at 3-5%. These polls would mean a majority of seats for the three left-wing parties, but no majority for the current CDU/SPD government.
There hasn’t been much change in German federal polls since the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election. The AfD is in the high 20s, with the CDU/CSU drifting below 20%. The combined vote for the three left parties is still usually below 40%.
US midterm elections updates
The US midterm elections are on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation last Monday that Democrats’ chances at the midterms depend on the Iran war’s impact on petrol prices in the lead-up to the elections. Nate Silver’s forecast model currently gives Democrats a 65% chance to gain control of the federal Senate (57% last Monday) and a 90% chance in the House of Representatives (86% previously). Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 8.6 points (previously 8.1 points). Donald Trump’s net approval is -20.5 (previously -19.7).
Left bloc wins Swedish election narrowly
Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At last Sunday’s election, the left-wing bloc of four parties defeated the right-wing governing bloc of four parties by 176 seats to 173 on overall vote shares of 49.6-48.8; this was a three-seat swing to the left since the 2022 election. There was a late narrowing in the left bloc’s lead in the polls, and a small right-wing party (the Liberals) won 5.3% after they had polled below the 4% threshold for a long time.
The populist right Sweden Democrats were down 3.0% to 17.5% of the vote, their first drop since they became a parliamentary party in 2010. The main centre-left party, the Social Democrats, dropped 2.3% to 28.0%, their worst vote share since 1911.
Brazilian presidential election on October 4 and 25
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. The two main candidates are Workers Party incumbent Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. Seven polls taken since mid-September of a likely runoff range from a 7.3-point Lula lead to a 4.4-point Bolsonaro lead, with an average Lula lead of 0.6 points. Bolsonaro has gained since I last wrote about Brazil in mid-August.