Live Commentary
9:30am Tuesday Correction to Berlin seat numbers: (Two paragraph entry) Yesterday, Wikipedia was showing a total of 130 MPs elected in Berlin, but that’s now 158, down only one since 2023. The Left won 47 seats (up 25), the CDU 34 (down 18), the AfD 29 (up 12), the Greens 26 (down eight) and the SPD 22 (down 12).
A coalition of the Left, Greens and SPD would have 95 seats, well above the 80 needed for a majority. The Greens and SPD could also form a coalition with the CDU, which would have 82 seats. But the current governing coalition of the CDU and SPD suffered the worst losses.
11:09am (Two paragraph entry) With all votes counted in Berlin, the Left won 25.7% of the vote (up 13.5% since 2023), the CDU 18.8% (down 9.5%), the AfD 16.3% (up 7.2%), the Greens 14.3% (down 4.1%), the SPD 12.1% (down 6.3%) and the BSW 4.7% (new). The Left overperformed polls, while the CDU and AfD slightly underperformed. Turnout was 74.2% (up 11.3%).
There were a total of 130 MPs, down 29 since 2023. The Left won 38 seats (up 16), the CDU 28 (down 24), the AfD 24 (up seven), the Greens 22 (down 12) and the SPD 18 (down 16). A coalition of the Left, Greens and SPD would have a clear majority with 78 of the 130 seats.
9:49am (Two paragraph entry) With all votes counted in MV, the AfD won 38.2% of the vote (up 21.5% since 2021), the SPD 35.5% (down 4.1%), the Left 6.5% (down 3.4%), the Greens 5.7% (down 0.6%), the CDU 4.9% (down 8.4%), the BSW 4.8% (new) and the FDP 1.0% (down 4.8%). The AfD and SPD slightly overperformed their polls, while the Left and CDU underperformed (disastrously so for the CDU). Turnout was 78.1%, up 7.3%.
There were a total of 71 MPs elected, down eight since 2021. The AfD won 32 seats (up 18), the SPD 29 (down five), the Left five (down four), the Greens five (steady), the CDU zero (down 12) and the FDP zero (down five). The SPD, Left and Greens combined have 39 of the 71 seats, enough for a majority. The CDU and FDP lost all their seats after falling below the 5% threshold. This is the first time the CDU has failed to win seats at a German state election.
7:43am With 99.8% reporting in MV, the CDU and BSW are still below the 5% threshold with 4.9% and 4.8% respectively.
7:25am With 96% reporting in Berlin, the Left leads with 25.8%, followed by the CDU at 18.8%, the AfD 15.9%, the Greens 14.5%, the SPD 12.2% and the BSW 4.7%. So the BSW will narrowly fall below the 5% threshold in both state elections. Berlin will be a clear win for the three left-wing parties.
7:06am With 99% reporting in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV), the CDU has crashed below the 5% threshold, and are currently on 4.9%. Current vote shares are 38.4% AfD, 35.4% SPD, 6.5% Left, 5.6% Greens, 4.9% CDU, 4.8% BSW and just 1.0% FDP. If that result holds, only four parties will qualify, and a government of SPD, Left and Greens will be formed.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 2am AEST Monday for today’s German state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. I will report results after I wake up, which should be before 7am. Both elections use statewide proportional representation with a 5% threshold. There will be at least 71 MPs elected in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and at least 130 in Berlin.
At the 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, the centre-left SPD won 34 of the 79 seats on 39.6% of the vote, the populist right AfD 14 seats on 16.7%, the conservative CDU 12 seats on 13.3%, the Left party nine seats on 9.9%, the Greens five seats on 6.3% and the pro-business FDP five seats on 5.8%. A governing coalition of the SPD and Left was formed.
Polls for today’s election have the AfD just ahead of the SPD with both in the 30s, followed by the Left in the low double digits, the CDU at 6-7%, the Greens at 5% and the economically left but socially right BSW at 3-5%. It will be easier for the SPD to form a left-wing government if the Greens clear the 5% threshold.
At the 2023 Berlin election, the CDU won 52 of the 159 seats on 28.2% of the vote, the SPD 34 seats on 18.4%, the Greens 34 seats on 18.4%, the Left 22 seats on 12.2% and the AfD 17 seats on 9.1%. Although the combined left parties held a majority of seats, the CDU and SPD formed a governing coalition.
In Berlin, parties that win at least one of the 78 single-member electorates using first-past-the-post are exempt from the 5% threshold. Polls for today’s election have the Left just ahead of the CDU with both in the low 20s, followed by the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 15-16%, the SPD at 10-12% and the BSW at 3-5%. These polls would mean a majority of seats for the three left-wing parties, but no majority for the current CDU/SPD government.
There hasn’t been much change in German federal polls since the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election. The AfD is in the high 20s, with the CDU/CSU drifting below 20%. The combined vote for the three left parties is still usually below 40%.
US midterm elections updates
The US midterm elections are on November 3. I wrote for The Conversation last Monday that Democrats’ chances at the midterms depend on the Iran war’s impact on petrol prices in the lead-up to the elections. Nate Silver’s forecast model currently gives Democrats a 65% chance to gain control of the federal Senate (57% last Monday) and a 90% chance in the House of Representatives (86% previously). Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 8.6 points (previously 8.1 points). Donald Trump’s net approval is -20.5 (previously -19.7).
Left bloc wins Swedish election narrowly
Sweden uses national PR with a 4% threshold to elect its 349 MPs. At the September 13 election, the left-wing bloc of four parties defeated the right-wing governing bloc of four parties by 176 seats to 173 on overall vote shares of 49.6-48.8; this was a three-seat swing to the left since the 2022 election. There was a late narrowing in the left bloc’s lead in the polls, and a small right-wing party (the Liberals) won 5.3% after they had polled below the 4% threshold for a long time.
The populist right Sweden Democrats were down 3.0% to 17.5% of the vote, their first drop since they became a parliamentary party in 2010. The main centre-left party, the Social Democrats, dropped 2.3% to 28.0%, their worst vote share since 1911.
Brazilian presidential election on October 4 and 25
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. The two main candidates are Workers Party incumbent Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro. Seven polls taken since mid-September of a likely runoff range from a 7.3-point Lula lead to a 4.4-point Bolsonaro lead, with an average Lula lead of 0.6 points. Bolsonaro has gained since I last wrote about Brazil in mid-August.
CDU below the threshold in MV – when has that ever happened in a state election?
I believe the SPD vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is sitting at around 35%, going by a couple of news articles, so I’m guessing they’ll be in the box seat to form gov’t after this election.
The AfD appear to have polled around 38%
Link: https://www.dw.com/en/afd-makes-gains-in-state-elections-but-has-no-government-options/a-79348308
Have woken up to the strange news of CDU going under 5% (currently) in MV. Also notable that BSW are just under 5% in both MV and Berlin.
Hard to ignore the light blue elephant in the room though – AfD going from 17 to 38 in MV, and 9 to 16 in Berlin. I had thought they might come second in Berlin but it seems so much vote has gone from SPD to left (Linke) that it could end up Linke-CDU-AfD-Green- SPD.
Also interesting how today and also a fortnight ago in Saxony-Anhalt FDP seems to just be fading away completely after at various stages being quite important in German politics, partnering both CDU/CSU and SPD in coalition Federal governments.
Adrian – no post on the Russian elections? 😆
newy boy
I sometimes wondered why various autocrats didn’t get 100% of the vote in their ‘elections’, then someone who had lived through one such regime told me that if they got 99% in the official tally then anyone who did have the guts to vote against them might feel ‘Well they did count my vote after all – but 99% of the population didn’t agree with me – so maybe it wasn’t totally rigged’
Rocket Rocket – yes, it’s about the regime aiming for resigned plausibility. (Credibility is a bit of a stretch.)
Thanks Adrian.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was where Angela Merkel’s seat was, which indicates how precipitous the CDU’s decline has been in that part of the world. There’s some interesting history there when she first ran in the post-unification elections – a deal had been done for her to get preselection for a seat in Rostock but nobody had bothered to tell her about it, and in the meantime she’d (somewhat unexpectedly) won a preselection ballot somewhere else, partly because some of her main opponent’s supporters didn’t realise it was a multi-stage ballot and went home after the first round of voting. (Reading about this, I got the sense that the East Germans were still getting the hang of this democracy thing).
It was actually a bit of an accident of history that she ended up in the CDU at all – in the pre-unification East Germany she was in a different centrist party, whose support collapsed after its leader was revealed to have been a Stasi collaborator, and then merged itself into the CDU.
Article about German politics that stuck with me.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/sep/19/germany-afd-banning-defend-democracy
“A coalition of the Left, Greens and SPD would have a clear majority with 78 of the 130 seats.”
Likewise, A coalition of the CDU, Greens and SPD would have a clear majority with 68 of the 130 seats.
They’ve done a few coalitions together now and that would keep the pro-Russia extreme left out of government.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommen (MV)
“With all votes counted in VP. . . The AfD and SPD slightly overperformed their polls, while the Left and CDU underperformed (disastrously so for the CDU).”
Assume ‘VP means ‘MV’. Anyhow, SPD was actually bang on the last couple of polls and all the other parties were within MoE apart from Linke (‘The Left’) which unlike in Berlin badly underperformed (possibly tactical voting for SPD in an attempt to deny AfD a win).
Speaking of European polls, it’s less than a year to the next French Presidential election, so, what’s going on there?
Last I heard, Marine Le Pen was banned from contesting elections, but that seems to be somehow annulled and she’s in the contest.
BT Says: I doubt that’d work in Berlin. The outgoing government is a grand coalition of the two “major” parties, who have managed about a third of the vote between them – they both got belted. The Greens (who also copped a swing) could tie themselves to that sinking ship, or they could help form a red-red-green coalition. That’s been done before too, only now with the unusual twist of the SPD being the junior partner. One hell of a comedown from leading a similar coalition just four years ago.
Also, the “pro-Russia extreme left” is called BSW, and they didn’t get into parliament. The Left/BSW split seems to have rid the Left of its more problematic (ie: pro-Putin) elements, and maybe made them less scary to work with to the traditional parties. If that ends up happening I guess the Left would call that a win, despite how messy it was.
Adrian (or anyone else who groks MMP systems): where do you get 130 from as a seat count in Berlin? Wiki reckons it’s 158. All five parties won at least one local seat (which must be a record – the lone SPD seat was a very narrow win!), and all of them get additional list seats, which makes it seem like there shouldn’t be overhang seats (since parties who have them don’t get list seats). Then again there’s a bunch of different flavours of MMP, so I might be missing something.
There are 78 constituency members and 52 list seats = 130 which is the notional number of members.
But more seats can be allocated if required to ensure proportionality – that’s where the extra come from.
But the additional can vary depending on the actual results.
This election it appears to be 28. In 2022 it was 29 and in 2021 17.
The Federal Parliament has changed its system so there are now a fixed number of members – 630 – with no extra on top. This followed the 2021 election where the total membership was 736 – well over the notional membership of 598.
Interesting to see that The Left in Berlin had links with Mamdani in terms of approach
HBG: “Interesting to see that The Left in Berlin had links with Mamdani in terms of approach”
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Die Linke has a lot in common with the Australian Greens too. In fact, I’d even go as far as to say that Die Linke has more in common with the Australian Greens than even Die Grunen.
It’s great to see the real left (AU/NZ/DE/UK Greens, Linke, Plaid, Sinn Fein, Bernie/AOC/Mamdani, etc…) rising to take on both the right wing establishment (Labor/Labour, Coalition/Tories, SPD, CDU/CSU, etc…) as well as the crazy far-right (One Nation, AfD, Reform, MAGA, etc…).
I’ve fixed the 130-seats in Berlin. Wikipedia had 130 seats yesterday, but now has 158. I’ve also fixed “VP”, not “MV”.
Adrian
Please see my response to Bird of Paradox above who raised this question.
The 130 seats up for election was correctly shown by wiki on Sunday night. That is the statutory size of the Berlin House of Representatives.
What was not known then was the final number of additional list seats to be elected because that calculation can’t be made until the count has been finished, the initial seat allocations determined and then the extra seats to make the final results proportional.
Anyone who thinks Labor or Labour or even SPD are right wing anything must be Vladimir Lenin or a ‘National Socialist’ to use the respectable name. It’s laughable in the extreme, Labor/Labour are actively (if surreptitiously to some extent) promoting communism.
It’s just that the Western world as a whole has tilted so far left the last few decades we’ve got all confused where the centre lies and normal right/centre-right policies are espoused by parties labelled glibly as ‘far right’ by the most of the media and most commentators online / on social.
Bird of P
Thanks, didn’t know before that Die Linke had attempted to clean up their ‘pro-Russia’ stance. Indeed it would give the other parties a justification if they wanted one, to start working with them.
I’d respectfully suggest that they are still pretty far left aside from that, with economic policies that will only prolong Germany’s malaise – and that the jury is still out on whether any emerging clear-sightedness on Russia truly becomes the norm for them.
FWIW I think that Chancellor Merz has the right ideas on the economy and could succeed if he was able to enact them less watered down – and may just succeed anyway. His boost to Defence spending was much needed too, it just needs to actually come to fruition.
But his disdain for (or incredibly poor awareness of) the optics has made even natural sympathisers to his policies dislike him. Firstly he didn’t even attempt to make it look like he wasn’t breaking his policies on spending when he pledged spending on steroids for Defence before he’d even been officially voted as Chancellor! – much as I agree with the policy, he misjudged badly here.
Germans actually expect honesty, at least of the more obvious kind, of their politicians more than a lot of other Westerners.
And, in spite of being direct (after all, they have a reputation for bluntness for a reason – though they are not really as cold as their raw logic suggests when you meet them up close), they have lines that cross from ‘direct’ into ‘rude’ that they resent more than other countries who are less direct with each other such as the UK or France. And Merz has shown a mixture of simple gaffes, some of which show him out of touch with ordinary people, and outright rude ‘gaffes’ that CDU’s natural supporters recoil from.
Merz better hope the economy does very well the next 2 years for people to notice in their pocket enough to give him credit, otherwise he risks becoming a lame duck leader very quickly.
Although incredibly different personalities and ideologies (Merz is a pragmatic and successful business man and semi-economist, with socially conservative views that are susceptible to changing with the times), it occurs to me that the current German government is looking rather similar to how the Starmer Labour government was perceived by the electorate at a similar point – it’s just possible that Merz could perform wizardry with Germany’s economy and the electorate’s cost of living and nobody would credit him as they’d already finished with him terminally and had stopped listening.
Like Labour in the UK, the CDU might need to change to a leader who has the same or even more conservative policies for their membership, but a smilier more positive face who doesn’t actually make any serious decisions to upset anyone and thus by contrast is seen as a positive change.
Otherwise surely the CDU’s decline will end up terminal like the Conservatives in the UK seem to have reached, though the bleeding has been staunched there by an increasingly liked (if somewhat irrelevant) leader who now outpolls her party by some distance but for whom many ex-Tories do not believe she has enough power over the ‘Lib Dem wing’ of the party (as they call it) to put any of her aspirations into practice if elected. These voters will take one serious paradigm shift to ever trust the Conservatives again, not least due to immigration/integration but also due to some of their more ‘socialist’ economic policies (which does feel a bit harsh on them tbf, it’s convenient to forget the drastic measures government felt they were forced to take to respond to the calamitous whack that was Covid-19).
BT Says:
Not so much “attempted” as forced on them. Basically they split over the war in Ukraine: BSW (the breakaway faction) is pro-Russia, while the continuing Left is pro-Ukraine. (There’s more to it than that, but that seems to be what sparked it.) It’s a bit weird that the CDU chose to work with BSW in government (in Thuringia) while keeping their rule of not working with the Left, but BSW fell apart anyway so it’s kinda moot. Meanwhile it’s clarified the Left’s position a bit.
(It’s only the CDU that doesn’t work with the Left – there’s been several SPD/Left or SPD/Green/Left coalitions at state level, including one led by the Left in Thuringia.)
It’s been a rough few years for the Left electorally, but if Berlin is any guide they seem to be through the worst of it. Meanwhile the BSW has lost most of the seats they gained at the last few state elections, and most of next year’s elections are in the west so they aren’t likely to get lucky there.
In regards to Germany, this exit poll from young people from the 2025 election really stuck with me.