Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Clacton. The populist right Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, resigned to recontest on July 7. No other well-known party is contesting this by-election. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008.
A mid to late July Survation poll, from a small sample of 265, gave Farage a massive 73-20 lead over joke candidate Count Binface with 7% for others. Although this sample size would give a 6% margin of error, Farage will still win easily. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.
The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Labour leading with 25.6% (up 2.2 points since my July 31 article), followed by Reform at 24.4% (down 0.1), the Conservatives 20.0% (down 0.2), the Greens 11.0% (down 0.7), the Liberal Democrats 10.6% (down 0.5) and the populist right Restore 3.5% (up 0.8). It’s the first time Labour has led in this aggregate since March 2025 and their biggest lead since January 2025.
Seat projections give Labour 213 of the 650 seats, with Reform on 152, the Conservatives 104, the Lib Dems 76, the Scottish National Party 42 and the Greens 20. A progressive majority could be formed by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
US updates
I had an article for The Conversation on Wednesday on Donald Trump’s ratings, prospects at the November 3 midterm elections and the US economy. In Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model, Democrats have a 56% chance to gain control of the federal Senate and an 86% chance to gain control of the House.
Republicans currently lead in the House of Representatives by 219-212 over Democrats with four vacancies. In mid-June, two Democrats qualified for the California 14 runoff next Tuesday and in late July two Democrats qualified for the Georgia 13 runoff on August 25, so Republicans’ lead will soon shrink to 219-214.
No special election has been scheduled for the remaining two vacancies (one Republican, one Democratic), which both occurred in mid-April. These two seats are likely to remain vacant until the general election.
Three Canadian federal by-elections on August 31
Three Canadian federal by-elections will occur on August 31. As in the UK, Canada uses first-past-the-post for national elections. At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP.
The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). A mid-July poll gave the Bloc 30%, the Liberals 28% and the Conservatives 26%.
The Liberals currently hold 172 of the 343 House of Commons seats including four vacancies. Even if they lost all three August 31 by-elections, they would retain a bare majority. They should at least win the two seats they currently hold, increasing to 174 seats. Six further by-elections are likely in the near future, with two due to pending resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.
Upcoming elections in Brazil and Israel
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. Incumbent Workers Party president Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, are the two main candidates. Six polls conducted in August of a likely runoff range from a tie to a nine-point Lula lead.
Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Most polls ahead of the October 27 election have Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition well below the 61 seats needed for a majority, with the big exception the government=aligned Filber poll. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.
I wonder if a novelty candidate who was actually funny could do any better than Count Binface look set to do?
“Nigel Farage set for a massive win over Count Binface”
What the world has turned into in the past 40 years is absurd.