Live Commentary
3:37pm Wikipedia has the percentages. Farage wins by 63.3-26.9 over Binface. Rejoin EU was the next highest with 1.4%. That’s a 17.1-point swing to Farage from the 2024 election result. The Survation poll overstated Farage, but he still won very easily.
3:09pm Results are not fully declared yet, but Farage has received over 22,000 votes to Binface’s nearly 9,500.
2:37pm The Clacton result is expected to be declared in the next hour.
12:27pm Farage won’t be attending the declaration of the result ceremony.
11:59am Farage says “it’s a convincing, overwhelming win” for him at the by-election.
11:29am Official turnout for the by-election was 44.4%, down from 58.7% in 2024.
11am Farage’s scrutineers seem confident that he’ll win more votes than he did in 2024 despite lower overall turnout.
9:44am Friday The BBC’s live blog of the Clacton count is here. Provisional turnout was “around 43%”, down from 58.7% at the 2024 general election.
6:20pm ChrisC in comments says the 34 candidates for Clacton, who all need to be listed on one ballot paper, mean it will take a long time to get a result. The BBC is estimating a declaration time between 2pm and 4pm AEST Friday.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Clacton. The populist right Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, resigned to recontest on July 7. No other well-known party is contesting this by-election. A total of 34 candidates are standing, breaking the previous record of 26 for a by-election in 2008.
A mid to late July Survation poll, from a small sample of 265, gave Farage a massive 73-20 lead over joke candidate Count Binface with 7% for others. Although this sample size would give a 6% margin of error, Farage will still win easily. In 2024, Farage defeated the Conservatives in Clacton by 46.2-27.9 with 16.2% for Labour.
The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Labour leading with 25.6% (up 2.2 points since my July 31 article), followed by Reform at 24.4% (down 0.1), the Conservatives 20.0% (down 0.2), the Greens 11.0% (down 0.7), the Liberal Democrats 10.6% (down 0.5) and the populist right Restore 3.5% (up 0.8). It’s the first time Labour has led in this aggregate since March 2025 and their biggest lead since January 2025.
Seat projections give Labour 213 of the 650 seats, with Reform on 152, the Conservatives 104, the Lib Dems 76, the Scottish National Party 42 and the Greens 20. A progressive majority could be formed by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
US updates
I had an article for The Conversation on Wednesday on Donald Trump’s ratings, prospects at the November 3 midterm elections and the US economy. In Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model, Democrats have a 56% chance to gain control of the federal Senate and an 86% chance to gain control of the House.
Republicans currently lead in the House of Representatives by 219-212 over Democrats with four vacancies. In mid-June, two Democrats qualified for the California 14 runoff next Tuesday and in late July two Democrats qualified for the Georgia 13 runoff on August 25, so Republicans’ lead will soon shrink to 219-214.
No special election has been scheduled for the remaining two vacancies (one Republican, one Democratic), which both occurred in mid-April. These two seats are likely to remain vacant until the general election.
Three Canadian federal by-elections on August 31
Three Canadian federal by-elections will occur on August 31. As in the UK, Canada uses first-past-the-post for national elections. At the April 2025 Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals defeated the Conservatives in North Vancouver-Capilano by 59.8-33.7 with 4.2% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). The Liberals defeated the Conservatives in Beaches-East York by 67.8-23.5 with 6.9% for the NDP.
The most interesting by=election is likely to be in the Quebec seat of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which the Conservatives won in 2025 with 34.1%. The separatist Quebec Bloc and the Liberals were nearly tied (31.2% Bloc, 31.1% Liberals). A mid-July poll gave the Bloc 30%, the Liberals 28% and the Conservatives 26%.
The Liberals currently hold 172 of the 343 House of Commons seats including four vacancies. Even if they lost all three August 31 by-elections, they would retain a bare majority. They should at least win the two seats they currently hold, increasing to 174 seats. Six further by-elections are likely in the near future, with two due to pending resignations of Liberal MPs. The Liberals have recently surged to lead the Conservatives by double-digit margins in Canadian federal polls.
Upcoming elections in Brazil and Israel
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if nobody wins a first round majority. Incumbent Workers Party president Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former populist right president Jair Bolsonaro, are the two main candidates. Six polls conducted in August of a likely runoff range from a tie to a nine-point Lula lead.
Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. Most polls ahead of the October 27 election have Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition well below the 61 seats needed for a majority, with the big exception the government-aligned Filber poll. However, even if the governing coalition loses its majority, it may be difficult to form an alternative government.
I wonder if a novelty candidate who was actually funny could do any better than Count Binface look set to do?
“Nigel Farage set for a massive win over Count Binface”
What the world has turned into in the past 40 years is absurd.
Binface might be the 2nd most surreal thing to have happened at Clacton in the past 40 years…
The Clacton count will take an age as not only are there 34 candidates the ballot paper itself is a very long piece of paper needing to be folded at least 3 times.
It’s suggested that the last ballot box won’t arrive at the count centre until 11.30PM
BBC is estimating a result between 5 and 7 am UK time but that will depend on turnout as much as the complexity of a multi folded long ballot and the complexity of the sorting process into individual piles.
Polling has it at about 70-30 between Farage and Binface.
Honestly if Binface gets anything like that it’s just going to be a humiliation for Farage, a joke candidate as obvious as him getting that high of a vote would be unprecedented.
And Count Binface also getting that high of a vote would also be unprecedented.
Hoping the voters in Clacton do the world a favour
It’s Bin Day
I guess we can all hope that “shy Binface voters” haven’t been picked up by the pollsters.
Polls are closed, it’ll be interesting to see what the turnout was and how long the count will take. I saw something suggesting it may take till 7am UK time
Sadly it’s very unlikely Count Binface will win but dare to dream. Anything above 20% should send a pretty strong message
Will they be back doing it all again before the end of the year?
And now, presuming Binface, not the Count, wins, the investigation will proceed and the good burghers of Clacton will be back at the polls again. This is farce squared. Grifters gonna grift.
The Clacton ballot paper….
A comprehensive study by Andrew Teale of the political history of Clacton (for a long time mostly part of the Harwich seat), its sociology and politics, plus a sketch of all 30+ candidates
https://andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-clacton-by-election
Previewing the Clacton by-election and the two local by-elections of 13th August 2026
Andrew Teale
Aug 12, 2026
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but assuming Farage wins today, and Clacton goes to a second by-election if the investigation into Farage goes badly, does he still get to run as a candidate again in that by-election?
BTRProducer,
Yes, he does. The idea being that if he hasn’t done anything criminally wrong, the voters get to pass judgment on whatever he did that might be morally wrong.
Leroy
Thanks for the link to this article on the background to Clacton on Sea.
https://andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-clacton-by-election
I note the demographics: essentially Farage has sought out an electorate that is an aging retirement village for those of english descent. One half (Clacton) is poorer retirees, mostly unqualified, the other (Frinton) are wealthy retirees. Most workers are employed in aged care.
I note Clacton has returned a Labour MP once in a century.
Farage not attending Declaration because of “a credible threat”. Presumably that people would laugh at him.
I’d say the credible threat would be that Binface (comedian John Harvey) might try to debate Farage at the announcement, and reduce him to a laughing stock.
Reform mouthpiece confirms that Farage is scared of the inevitable public humiliation if he attends the declaration of the poll.
They are gathering the candidates. Looks like counting is finished.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YylUF_HGGNo
So Count Binface got 9000 votes…
Count Binface has 9400 votes.
…and Farage got over 22,000 votes.
You had one job, Clacton!
That is the problem. Clacton has hardly anyone still working, just a large number of grumpy retirees.
It’s a real shame all those other candidates diluted the non-Farage vote. If it had just been Binface and Farage running, as a lot of people were hoping, the result would have looked a heck of a lot worse for Farage.
Still, I guess we will all be back here watching this all happen again in a few months time…
63.3% for Farage.
26.9% for Binface.
1.2% for Rejoin EU coming in 3rd.
Last time around Nigel Farage came in with 46% of the vote. Since then, Reform has gained 10% in the polls, if you take the Politico average. That means that in a normal election, he would be expected to get 56%. He got 62%.
Getting 6% more than normal circumstances when your only challenger is a bin is the real joke of the election.
So, what exactly has Farage achieved here?
Approximately 30% of the voters who could vote supported him. ??
He is more than twice as credible as a man wearing a rubbish bin on his head. ??
His Westminster investigation will now resume.
I hope Farage can be charged for the cost of this farce of a by-election. How the fuck was the cost of him resigning to re-stand for an election that will only delay him being brought to account over undeclared dodgy millions in donations not made THE issue of the by-election. He should be able to afford to pay the cost of the byelection.
@PaulTu at 4:12pm
His intention was to decisively win this by-election so that he can fend off all questions about corruption by saying “The people of Clacton have re-elected me in a landslide, so therefore I don’t have to answer any further questions, so there.”
That he only won over Count Binface, a literal joke candidate only by 63-27 might put a dent in his march for Number 10.
Good job Count Binface, over a 1/4 of those who voted (which was less than half of eligible voters) does indeed send a message
I wonder how many candidates they’ll have next time? If there is a next time
Ian Dunt on the by-election. Free to read.
https://iandunt.substack.com/p/clacton-byelection-farages-pyrrhic-5a6
Clacton byelection: Farage’s pyrrhic victory convinces no-one
Some disparate thoughts on the silliest byelection in British history.
Farage is an MP again, the Parliamentary standards investigation has recommenced
Farage is back in with less than 30% of the total possible vote.
To be fair to Farage, he did in fact offer to pay the costs of this by-election. Probably because he knew that couldn’t happen, but anyway.
I can’t post images for some reason but it’s worth checking out Farage’s spiv suit as he arrived to vote yesterday, with cream coat, purple tie and matching gammon face and pants
Farage received 21,225 votes in Clacton in 2024. In yesterday’s by-election he won scarcely 1,000 more with no opposition except a bin.
Sounds like he won the same mouth breathers and a margin of error bleed from all the other parties that didn’t stand, while almost everyone else went for Count BinFace or stayed home.
The UK has a very strong demonstrated tendency for the older vote to be over represented in terms of participation, so there’s a possible argument to be made that he might have come close to losing with full turnout. Theoretical or not, it doesn’t suggest an overwhelming endorsement of him by his electorate beyond those with the time to vote on a work day who could be bothered with a plebiscite on Trash vs Bin.
@NSW Bludger
As demonstrated in their tendency to run repeats of Last of the Summer Wine, the elderly people of the UK are quite prepared to keep on riding bathtubs down hills until everyone thinks it’s funny.
The SDP (more factually the continuity SDP) contested and came 7th with 256 (0.7%).
It it the remnant of the party that was left after the majority of the SDP (a moderate breakaway from Labour in the 1980s) joined the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats. This remnant party led by Lord David Owen, dissolved itself after being outpolled 3:1 by Screaming Lord Sutch (Monster Loony) in a 1990 by-election but some still keep the faith, with equivalent results, 36 years later.
Re Subgeometer @8:05 PM.
Here he is. Not someone I’d buy a used car from…
To post images here, I load them to Postimages.com, copy the link and past it here, removing everything before https and after .jpg. There may be other ways.
EDIT: replaced photo from a previous election with this week’s.
I see Laurence Fox of the Reclaim Party didn’t do very well.
Reclaim makes the Restore Party look like moderates.
And Restore makes Reform look like moderates.
Reform, Restore, Reclaim…. too many Rs.
Farage did very well considering the cloud over his head, lack of credible alternatives to motivate people to get to the polls and a Summer holiday by-election date to boot.
Why bother come out to vote if you either think Farage is guilty? or if you don’t think he is, even like him, but think he’s gonna win easily as per the only poll and with no credible other parties standing?
Achieving more raw votes than in July 2024 is a qualified success.
Clearly the deeply held desires for Farage to have been humiliated in the by-election expressed on here have nothing to do with the rather mild (remember it’s nothing to do with the size of the gift, it’s whether rules were broken) allegations against him, and everything to do with prior prejudice.
And clearly those posting here belittling the threats against Farage and/or Reform have no idea of the threats against politicians in the USA and the UK these days, principally against those on the right – although there have in the past been hit jobs against left wingers by completely nutty rightwingers in the past. Be thankful if Australia is not yet the same, I’m sure that it will be before too long.
The scary part recently is that the threats, assassinations and attempted assassinations against conservative politicians seem to more often come from otherwise sane, even intelligent and educated, men (it’s nearly always men resorting to deathly violence, on all sides of politics).
For those in Australia that didn’t know, not only has Farage had death threats but one of their ex-spokespersons, Ann Widdecombe, was brutally murdered in her own home a month ago.
An ex-Tory MP and Shadow Cabinet Minister under William Hague, who never got married, was a devout Christian and had a well-known sense of humour (she was very popular on ‘Strictly Come Dancing’ a few years ago. . . except with the judges 🙂 ) and who was very personable even when speaking with polar opposite politicians (away from the cut and thrust of parliament where she wouldn’t have held back). Widdecombe was a conviction politician who didn’t give a jot about opinion polls, who nonetheless was known to be very kindly.
She didn’t fit into a box as, although socially conservative – which may have earned her enemies from the LGBT lobby or the pro-immigration lobby – she went against her party when her convictions dictated so, notably IN FAVOUR OF the ban on fox-hunting that Tony Blair introduced for instance (dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives ALWAYS support all rights of countryside dwellers and definitely fox-hunting, even now – though few would be suicidal enough to try and reintroduce it).
Anyway. . . if people have enough hatred to murder a defenceless elderly woman of nearly 80 – she was hit with the hammer 21 times – just because they vigorously disagree with her, it’s safe to assume that threats against other Reform politicians – especially Farage – are real.
Not that the reports of opponents at the election count amounted to violence AFAIK. But not being shown on national TV with a partisan crowd chanting against you and seeking to humiliate you, is just sensible politics. It’s not like this was a debate he was dodging or something.
Get your message out when you have the ability to do so – otherwise find something better to do.
What on earth has Farage actually gained? Not much really. The investigations into his financial affairs will recommence as soon as he’s sworn back into parliament. And Count Binface/Jonathan Harvey won nearly 10,000 votes.
Nobody should be surprised Reform today announcing rather cruel welfare policies, which would involve kicking off benefits many of those who vote for Nigel and his cronies.
Meanwhile, the Burnham honeymoon continues!
“What on earth has Farage actually gained?”
1. Farage moved the focus away from Andy Burnham very deftly, ending his momentum and day-to-day domination of the airwaves up to that point.
MSM and commentators still haven’t learnt the lessons that Trump taught them, that sucking oxygen from opponents is a key strategy in itself – so if necessary say something shocking and unpopular to get into the headlines.
2. Farage has got in ahead with his own constituents – it will be much harder (though still not impossible by any means) for other parties to reset Clacton voters’ thinking if there’s another by-election later this year, and indeed the very fact of a second by-election may cement the perception of a witch-hunt against Farage (note I am refraining here from offering my own opinion on the latter, it’s irrelevant).
P.S. Welfare policy announced – even though personally I stand to be collateral damage potentially, from the changes, I don’t deny that they absolutely have to happen – the whole PIP etc. benefits system has got out of control.
And it’s hard to refute the case for denying welfare to immigrants/non-citizens except in exceptional cases – potentially refugees could be exempted, though surely there’s a basic provision even for them if not all immigrant applicants without entering the formal welfare system and making this country even more heavily indebted.