Two new bits of state polling from Victoria:
• Common Threads, an organisation that supports the state’s First Peoples treaty process, has published results from a multi-level regression and post-stratification poll conducted for it by YouGov, though its field work period of June 16 to July 10 long predates the leadership change. The poll has statewide voting intention results are Coalition 26%, One Nation 24%, Labor 23% and Greens 13%, with the Coalition leading Labor 53.8-46.2 on two-party preferred, but its main purpose is to produce produced modelled estimates of voting intention at seat level. The median forecast is for a hung parliament with 39 seats for the Coalition, 29 for Labor, 17 for One Nation and three for the Greens. Fifteen of the projected One Nation gains are at Labor’s expense, with a projection of eight seats being won by the Nationals (including Jacinta Allan’s seat of Bendigo East) being quite a bit healthier than their outlook in other contexts. Extensive detail on seat projections, demographics and responses to the questions on the First Nations treaty are featured in the full report. The sample for the poll is 4003 – high for a normal poll, but no the low side for an MRP poll.
• Roy Morgan had a poll conducted last Wednesday to Friday by SMS, a method I have my doubts about. It suggests only modest change since the last such poll in April, with the Coalition up two to 26%, Labor up half a point to 26%, One Nation down one to 23.5% and the Greens down one to 12.5%. Two-party preferred results had the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from April; Labor leading One Nation 56-44, out from 53.5-46.5; and the Coalition leading One Nation 63.5-36.5, out from 59-41. The sample for the poll was 2084.
Preselection news:
• The Liberal Party’s state executive voted to install Melbourne deputy lord mayor Roshena Campbell as its lead candidate for the Western Metropolitan upper house region on Friday. This filled the vacancy created three weeks earlier when the state executive voted unanimously to disendorse Moira Deeming. Campbell was chosen by 12 votes to seven ahead of incumbent Trung Luu, who has now nominated for a separate process to fill the second position on the ticket, from which he won election in 2022.
• The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column reports that Eastern Victoria region was missing from One Nation’s announcement of its lead upper house candidates because of a last-minute decision for party state president Warren Pickering to run in the lower house seat of Pakenham instead. The party has since announced its Eastern Victoria candidate will be Greg Hansford, who ran for the anti-lockdown Freedom Party at the 2022 election, and as One Nation’s federal candidate for Gippsland at the 2025 federal election.
• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported last month that Moonee Valley councillor Samantha Byrne had been preselected as Liberal candidate for Ben Carroll’s loseable seat of Niddrie ahead of Stefano Emodi, and related the further endorsement of candidates in Yan Yean (Amanda Dow), Ripon (Megan Read) and South Barwon (Libby Pettit). Elsewhere, the Herald Sun reports police detective Paul O’Halloran will be the Liberal candidate in Mordialloc.
Landlord of the Year – DemosAU has probably been the strongest series for the Victorian Coalition recently, whereas Roy Morgan has been the strongest for Victorian Labor. Redbridge was previously relatively strong for Labor, but the most recent Redbridge had the Coalition well ahead of Labor. This is why I’m particularly interested to see where the next Resolve lands.
On all these latest poll numbers I still don’t see ON winning many lower house seats. Not strong enough to finish ahead of Coalition in rural electorates and so they either get third in 3CP and knocked out or second ahead of Labor whose preferences elect Coalition.
And I still don’t believe they will win many of those outer suburban electorates either.
Basically I think the Coalition will poll too well in most places, and in a lot of Labor seats Labor will do enough.
Morwell most likely ON gain.
Nationals will beat ON In Bendigo East due to Lethlean’s near-successful federal campaign.
ON to get 8 upper house seats. And fewer lower house than that. I am guessing 3-5.
I know people who tell me ON will win 10-20 but they struggle to nominate those actual seats they will gain.
New thread.