Two new bits of state polling from Victoria:
• Common Threads, an organisation that supports the state’s First Peoples treaty process, has published results from a multi-level regression and post-stratification poll conducted for it by YouGov, though its field work period of June 16 to July 10 long predates the leadership change. The poll has statewide voting intention results are Coalition 26%, One Nation 24%, Labor 23% and Greens 13%, with the Coalition leading Labor 53.8-46.2 on two-party preferred, but its main purpose is to produce produced modelled estimates of voting intention at seat level. The median forecast is for a hung parliament with 39 seats for the Coalition, 29 for Labor, 17 for One Nation and three for the Greens. Fifteen of the projected One Nation gains are at Labor’s expense, with a projection of eight seats being won by the Nationals (including Jacinta Allan’s seat of Bendigo East) being quite a bit healthier than their outlook in other contexts. Extensive detail on seat projections, demographics and responses to the questions on the First Nations treaty are featured in the full report. The sample for the poll is 4003 – high for a normal poll, but no the low side for an MRP poll.
• Roy Morgan had a poll conducted last Wednesday to Friday by SMS, a method I have my doubts about. It suggests only modest change since the last such poll in April, with the Coalition up two to 26%, Labor up half a point to 26%, One Nation down one to 23.5% and the Greens down one to 12.5%. Two-party preferred results had the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from April; Labor leading One Nation 56-44, out from 53.5-46.5; and the Coalition leading One Nation 63.5-36.5, out from 59-41. The sample for the poll was 2084.
Preselection news:
• The Liberal Party’s state executive voted to install Melbourne deputy lord mayor Roshena Campbell as its lead candidate for the Western Metropolitan upper house region on Friday. This filled the vacancy created three weeks earlier when the state executive voted unanimously to disendorse Moira Deeming. Campbell was chosen by 12 votes to seven ahead of incumbent Trung Luu, who has now nominated for a separate process to fill the second position on the ticket, from which he won election in 2022.
• The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column reports that Eastern Victoria region was missing from One Nation’s announcement of its lead upper house candidates because of a last-minute decision for party state president Warren Pickering to run in the lower house seat of Pakenham instead. The party has since announced its Eastern Victoria candidate will be Greg Hansford, who ran for the anti-lockdown Freedom Party at the 2022 election, and as One Nation’s federal candidate for Gippsland at the 2025 federal election.
• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported last month that Moonee Valley councillor Samantha Byrne had been preselected as Liberal candidate for Ben Carroll’s loseable seat of Niddrie ahead of Stefano Emodi, and related the further endorsement of candidates in Yan Yean (Amanda Dow), Ripon (Megan Read) and South Barwon (Libby Pettit). Elsewhere, the Herald Sun reports police detective Paul O’Halloran will be the Liberal candidate in Mordialloc.
I feel sorry for Victoria looking down the barrel of a liberal or lib/ Pauline coalition. This is what happens when Labor is in for a long run and public sentiment sours on Labor due to various issues wing attached to the government by the media. Vic’s carry on about being the most progressive people and Qld the least but what is happening down there is identical to what happened here. Crime became the single biggest issue but not hardly at all in Brisbane where Labor hung on to virtually all its seats despite a concerted media campaign. Amazingly crime is still an issue but no longer attached to the government by the media , funny that. Anyway our LNP government seems to be drifting further right and becoming more development oriented at the expense of environment and social cohesion ( they’ve removed the obligation on developers to provide an affordable component in high rise builds). The liberal party will always look at ways of eliminating the obstacles that exist between a rich guy who has money and his ability to make more that’s their whole mission.
The Age 10/08
An independent report that found just 54 of the government’s 270 promised mental health reforms had been completed was reworked ahead of its publication to credit it with doubling progress on royal commission recommendations.
The Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission’s original report also had its judging criteria changed, its ratings improved, and its most critical findings removed in the months after it was first presented to the government.
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What a govt we have down here Prince.
We have to pinch ourselves on occasion to believe how lucky we all are to be served by such a group of fabulous people.
By the way, the Minister involved Ingrid Stitt has just been promoted by Ben ‘Integrity is not optional’ Carroll.
It’s about time you showed some appreciation as to how well you’ve been looked after in Victoria by Labor with enough time put aside to read newspapers, ride your treadly, go to the footy and hang about on PB.
A message of appreciation to Mr Andrews would be the least you could do to.
Princeplanet
Labor due to various issues wing attached to the government by the media.
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Issues are state government issues, the crime issue in Melbourne is the government’s doing after changing the bail laws and the courts giving repeat offenders bail. It isn’t only about crime, the roads are poor, Melbourne looks dirty and rundown, the budget is out of control, rising economic distress from COL, unemployment is up and the government is moving ahead with unpopular planning policies. This is a snapshot of some of the issues.
Maybe it would be a good thing if the Libs get in this time. People need to be reminded of what an actual train wreck government looks like. Only the Libs can show them that.
Melbourne is the Worlds 4th most liveable city….and Australia’s most liveable…..by Independent assessment of a dozen factors.
Not sure where the hysterical negativism comes from, usual whingers.
Hopefully as a worst case scenario we might have something resembling South Australia 2018. An insurgent third party riding on protest vote sentiment that largely fizzles out by election day, leading to a slim conservative win that fizzles out in one term.
If Labor manage to eke out another win though, perhaps resembling South Australia 2014, that will be a sight to behold.
Torchbearer
Surveys of executives and expats should rate Melbourne highly but Melbourne is looking warnout.
People saying the CBD is dead are obviously just listening to the news and haven’t been there.
On my office days, it’s no less busy than it ever was before and that includes Fridays which is the quietest day for office workers (my own office is dead on Fridays but the streets are not).
Go into Melbourne CBD after 8pm on any night of the week, and compare that to going into any other capital city’s CBD after 8pm, and look at the difference. I sometimes travel to Brisbane for work and it can be hard to even find a restaurant open after 8pm in the CBD on a weeknight! It’s totally dead and just empties out after the office workers have gone home. Melbourne’s “little streets” and laneways are buzzing 7 nights a week until late.
Go into the CBD on a weekend during the day, and yes there might be some protests, but again the streets are packed. Compare that to most other major CBDs on a weekend. Melbourne CBD is by far the most lively in Australia.
Then add to that all the high streets in inner suburbs – Brunswick St, Smith St, Lygon St, Sydney Rd, High St (Northcote/Thornbury), even struggling ones like Chapel St – and again, how many other cities in Australia have so much going on day & night not just in their CBD but in so many surrounding areas?
People just love to whinge most people doing the whinging are the ones who never actually go into the city, or complain that they can’t do so by car because it’s “too hard” now (you’re not supposed to be able to easily drive into a CBD).
“but Melbourne is looking warnout.”
The Inner North – Fitzroy and Northcote are looking good and are pretty buzzy.
Richmond, South Yarra and Prahran are looking really tired and worn out.
Fitzroy and Northcote are looking really buzzy.
Richmond, South Yarra and Prahran are indeed looking tired and worn out. It could be cyclical but they have been like that for a while.
And in the city, the Chinatown and top end are pretty buzzy too after hours.
I do not visit the Melbourne CBD often but did so on the weekend. It was busy, vibrant and clean despite the rain. Where the BS about it looking run down comes from is a mystery to me. And, oddly enough, I did not feel threatened by the rampant criminal gangs that exist only in the minds of some contributors to this site and the press. Maybe they were in hiding to avoid me seeing them and being affrighted.
Could there be a political motive at play ?
And the eastern suburbs – pleasant to live in but on balance pretty dreary …
Fair enough TM but maybe even you’ll be looking back at Dan the man with affection after two years of Liberal/ Pauline havoc and confusion lol
Melbourne isn’t dead and empty of people, it’s just looking worn out and dirty in parts, it doesn’t help that the government hasn’t got on top of homelessness in the city.
Kage
It’s not scary but there are dodgy areas, the Flinders St end of Elizabeth St, but it can depend on what you consider vibrant. If you see lots of people as vibrant and if you only walk down Collins St, yes Melbourne is vibrant but if you look beyond that, to look at the street scape, there are cracks.
blackburnpseph
Local shopping strips are mixed, Fitzroy, Northcote and Swan St Richmond are busy but others are in need of renewal.
No doubt there were increases of crime in recent years and those incidents did happen (including the recent news of a tragic death 60 year old Vietnamese Shop Owner in Sunshine due to trying to confront thieves) but Melbourne is nowhere as dystopian as Right-wing Narratives likes to portray and I think this is the actual sentiment amongst most people. Even during the lowest crime and ‘tough on crime’ years, there were still hotspots for anti-social behavior.
@Bonza, agree about regarding a potential elections results about the Labor’s worst case scenario being like the SA Election. The best case for Labor where they win narrowly (narrow majority or minority government) something like the 2025 Canadian Election with Mark Carney’s Liberal winning.
Even Chapel St is a tale of two ends.
The Windsor end is usually very vibrant and doesn’t look particularly “worn” either (noting that like Fitzroy it is intentionally the slightly grittier end).
South Yarra is looking worn in parts, but there are a mix of reasons for that: a couple of very large sites are currently being developed and under construction, long term that should be a positive but obviously a street full of construction sites doesn’t look or feel particularly vibrant in the short term. And secondly, it’s struggled for a while because it is so retail-focused and online shopping hasn’t been kind to retail anywhere. That’s why the Windsor end is doing so much better, it’s more focused on hospitality and the “retail” mixed in is mostly thrift / secondhand stuff.
Prahran itself is the smallest stretch of Chapel St, but is where most of its issues (homelessness, drug use, as well as problematic nightclubs etc) are concentrated.
Bridge Rd in Richmond also struggled due to its retail dependency, whereas Swan St is much more hospitality focused. These strips just need time to reinvent themselves and be less dependent on commercial activity that has mostly moved online.
Trent
Chapel St has been in a long slow decline since Borders and Virgin Music closed.
Q: Surveys of executives and expats should rate Melbourne highly but Melbourne is looking warnout.
They are not surveys, they are usually rankings of statistics like crime rates, life expectancy, income, access to health/education/culture, open space etc…
Q: No doubt there were increases of crime in recent years
Do stats back this up? I just think there are more avenues for stirring fear and loathing. I think crime rates across the nation are at historic lows.