Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

A volatile poll series finds Labor at a new low, while a more stable one records little change.

The fortnightly YouGov poll, which is now branded News24 Pulse following Sky News’ name change, is little changed on last time: Labor is steady on 28%, One Nation down one to 24%, the Coalition steady on 22% and the Greens down one to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have Labor leading the Coalition 52-48, which is in from 53-47, and One Nation by 56-44, which is unchanged. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor is up two to 35% and down three to 46%. Albanese holds a preferred prime minister lead of 42-38 over Angus Taylor, in from 43-37, and leads Pauline Hanson 51-38, in from 52-37. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Monday – the sample size remains to be seen, but would have been around 1500.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 25.5%, their worst result for the term, but with the Coalition also down, by a point-and-a-half to 22%. One Nation is up two to 26%, while the Greens are up half to 15.5%, their equal best result for the term. Respondent-allocated two-party results have Labor leading both One Nation and the Coalition by 53-47, which is respectively in from 54-46 and out from 52-48, while Labor’s lead on previous election preferences narrows from 52.5-47.5 to 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1647.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

39 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

  1. The moron from Monash stood up in question time twice to ask if the Prime Minister was going to apologise to the Japanese Prime Minister for talking about the melons she gave him as a gift. Meanwhile, bird flu is hitting Australia at the rate of knots and the LNP did not ask a single question about this alarming event.

    It was left to a Labor member to ask about bird flu and people wonder why the LNP are so low in the opinion polls?

  3. Former prime minister John Howard has warned against an alliance between the Coalition and One Nation, as the Liberal Party’s campaign chief urges downbeat MPs to play the long game in countering Pauline Hanson.
    Howard told this masthead that “the only party that we should ever be in coalition with is the National Party”. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has resisted pressure from a minority of right-wing MPs to collaborate with Hanson, whose party One Nation retains a big lead on the Coalition in the polls.
    But Howard, who as Liberal leader backed the move to disendorse Hanson as a Liberal candidate in 1996 for her remarks about Indigenous Australians, declared “the way to deal with the One Nation challenge is for the Liberal and National parties to be the best demonstration of themselves”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/howard-s-advice-to-liberals-to-win-back-voters-flocking-to-pauline-hanson-20260811-p60nam.html

  5. The Coalition will back a plan by Pauline Hanson to prevent Australian citizens with links to overseas terrorist groups from returning home, significantly elevating One Nation’s policy prescriptions on matters of national security.

    Despite pledging to fight Hanson’s insurgent rightwing movement amid collapsing support for their own parties, the opposition leader, Angus Taylor, and Nationals leader, Matt Canavan, both signalled support for One Nation’s bill to bar the return of foreign fighters ahead of its introduction to the Senate on Wednesday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/12/coalition-to-back-one-nation-policy-barring-overseas-australians-with-terrorist-links-from-returning-home

  6. The current coalition won’t want to merge with whatever ON is as a party.

    Even though they may hold similar stances on many issues, much like many Labor members do with the Greens (shhh), absolutely no party likes sharing power or giving away the keys to power.

  7. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Russia Preparing Autumn Mobilization Immediately After “Imitation” Elections: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/russia-preparing-autumn-mobilization-immediately-after-imitation-elections-zelenskyy-says-21590

    Ukraine destroys air defenses protecting Putin’s palace near Gelendzhik: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-destroys-air-defenses-protecting-1786377788.html

    Wildberries Tried to Redirect Ukrainian Drones Onto Rival Ozon—It Didn’t Work: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/wildberries-tried-to-redirect-ukrainian-drones-onto-rival-ozon-it-didnt-work-21575

    Moscow accuses Romania of providing military support to Ukraine, points to Giurgiulești port: “NATO is moving closer to direct confrontation with Russia”: https://spotmedia.ro/en/news/news/moscow-accuses-romania-of-providing-military-support-to-ukraine-points-to-giurgiulesti-port-nato-is-moving-closer-to-direct-confrontation-with-russia

    Trump says Russia agreed to release jailed US Marine without swap: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/08/11/8048293/

    US fired on Panama-flagged ship that tried to break blockade of Iranian ports: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-fired-panama-flagged-ship-that-tried-break-blockade-iranian-ports-wsj-reports-2026-08-11/

    Meta glasses banned from courts in England and Wales: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/aug/11/meta-glasses-banned-from-courts-in-england-and-wales

    The Spectator: “We can reveal that a former supporter of Hizb ut-Tahrir, now banned as a terror group, has been appointed assistant research professor of education at Cambridge, in the same faculty as Arday.”: https://x.com/spectator/status/2087074041307738541

    Surprise! Todd Blanche Immediately Breaks His Promises to GOP Senators: https://newrepublic.com/post/214186/todd-blanche-breaks-promises-donald-trump

    New Study Confirms Medicare for All Would Save 114,000 Lives and more than $1 Trillion a Year: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-new-study-confirms-medicare-for-all-would-save-114000-lives-and-more-than-1-trillion-a-year/

    Trump Blames Biden For Firing the U.S.’s Missile Stockpile at Iran: https://newrepublic.com/post/214190/trump-biden-missile-weapons-stockpile-depleted

    Mamdani Backs Proposal to End Amazon’s ‘Exploitative’ Delivery Model in New York City: https://www.commondreams.org/news/delivery-protection-act-nyc

    Trump’s fear of attack is making him deeply paranoid: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-fear-attack-pushing-extraordinary-lengths-4698949

    Samuel Alito gained up to $2.9m from oil and gas assets since joining supreme court: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/11/samuel-alito-oil-gas-assets-supreme-court-analysis

    Trump Openly Mulls Dystopian Plan for Stealing the Midterm Elections: https://newrepublic.com/post/214189/donald-trump-national-emergency-voter-id-midterm-elections

    Meta can’t stop states’ $1.4 trillion lawsuit from going to trial: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/08/meta-cant-stop-states-1-4-trillion-lawsuit-from-going-to-trial/

    Contiguous US breaks its record for hottest month ever, NOAA says: https://apnews.com/article/hottest-month-july-climate-change-4a9d612281485356103631f0f09b61af

  8. The Coalition can say whatever they like, if ON win enough seats and they need their support to govern, be it state or federal, they’ll change their tune.

    I’d imagine many Nats, deep down are desperate for some kind of formal allliance so that they can push for an electoral pact for ON not to run in their existing seats, because on current polling numbers there’s no way they don’t face a wipeout.

  9. The Showdown in Wellington is happening within an hour.
    Luxon has called an urgent meeting in an attempt to head off leadership talk but it may have backfired.

  10. JM from Qld says:
    Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 6:49 am
    The Coalition can say whatever they like, if ON win enough seats and they need their support to govern, be it state or federal, they’ll change their tune.
    ———————————-
    Problem for the lib/nats , since one nation voter based is on the same political side
    If one nation win seats, it’s coming off the lib/nats

  12. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as the U.S. does not change its behavior and accept Iran’s conditions, newly appointed Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Tuesday. “America must end the war, pay Iran’s frozen assets, the war must end throughout the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza,” he added.

  14. Until that Japanese WW2-apologist ex-ambassador put a hostile spin on a three month old podcast episode, nobody cared. Now The Australian gave him a platform, too much of the rest of our media are death-riding this for all it’s worth. I swear many of these ‘journos’ want Japan to take offence at us.

  15. ASIO is set to get new powers to secretly probe university collaborations with hostile and authoritarian nations after the Education Department ­rebuked 26 universities over risky research.
    Universities will be forced to report all dealings with any institution in China, Iran, Russia, Belarus, Brunei, Vietnam or Laos, under changes to the Foreign Relations Act before parliament.
    Every education and research institution in those countries will be deemed to “lack institutional autonomy from their government’’, meaning hostile or authoritarian governments can meddle in sensitive research ranging from cyber security to military and biological warfare.
    The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation will no longer have to notify universities or academics when they are under investigation.
    https://archive.is/kBXie

  19. MelonGate takes a twist with Cash calling for the AFP to investigate the leaking of the communication between Australia and Japan lol

    PK raised it at the time on Insiders saying it was bigger than KylieGate, works out she was right. In discussing it on the Politics Now podcast yesterday she suggested people watch the clip and make up their own mind

    I’d imagine those defending it here haven’t actually seen it

    Bit late for a leadership change in NZ, they must have some terrible internal polling to even be considering it

  21. HBG, I’ve seen the clip several times. Its a bit cringe, but the way people on PB and the Murdoch press along with their lackies are carrying on is a total beat up.

    And to say otherwise is just hypocrisy considering the seat sniffers et al across the board.

  23. MI dipping into the distant past re seat sniffing

    Dare I suggest, 2 wrongs done make a right?

    I’m sure MelonGate will fade away as KylieGate and his “difficult” line re Grace Tame have. I’m not sure they’ll be forgotten though and wouldn’t be surprised if they are raised again during the election campaign

  25. sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 7:05 am
    The Financial Review has bumped the business news down from the lead for – MelonGate
    _______________________
    Well considering it’s made the BBC and CNN.
    What do you expect.

  26. “I’ve seen the clip several times. Its a bit cringe, but the way people on PB and the Murdoch press along with their lackies are carrying on is a total beat up.”

    Albo is totally being “Murdoched”.

    Distraction from Labor policy wins.

  27. Morgan is my favourite poll, well when it goes the left way lol

    I wonder what’s happened to their version of the MRP? They were talking it up a month ago

  28. We have 80,00o ,come over here!!

    But of course USA runs on economic growth in Australia it’s Labor federal governments population Ponzi policy that’s gets growth.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-visas-revoked-foreign-nationals-b3031380.html

    Encore heres another 75k….
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-ice-record-arrests-july-b3030791.html
    “Dumocrats”

    Aussies see this above in the news sometimes and this drives up One nations vote.

    Crime at 100 year low in USA. They are winning!

  29. Hard Being Greensays:
    Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 7:49 I’m sure MelonGate will fade away as KylieGate and his “difficult” line re Grace Tame have. I’m not sure they’ll be forgotten though and wouldn’t be surprised if they are raised again during the election campaign.
    _______________________
    It will always be there in the background.
    As a reminder of what type of person he really is.

  30. HardGreen

    Family saw it for the first time last night.

    One of us is a Green voter.

    None of us saw what we were told we should be seeing. (And all of us had been assuming he was Guilty as Charged before that).

    What we saw was a sweeping gesture, which – even if paused at exactly the right moment – still didn’t look like cupping.

    Regardless, if the Japanese aren’t fussed by it, I’m not sure anyone else should be.

    But hey, you run with the Liberals…

  31. The shadow housing minister Andrew Bragg will be up at the national press club and says the opposition will strip the 2000 page national construction code, which he says makes it “illegal to build a cheap safe house”, down to an 80-page “basic Australian standard”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/aug/12/australia-politics-live-question-time-anthony-albanese-angus-taylor-coalition-andrew-bragg-housing-construction-immigration-one-nation-pauline-hanson-gambling-melon-gift-japan-ndis-ntwnfb

    Time for a Royal Commission into Bragg’s sell out to the Developer Lobby.. non so corrupt as the LNP.

  32. I see Melons still figure prominently. It’s a totally manufactured “scandal”, as Zoomster said at the end of the old thread.

    My last word on Melons. I have some work to do.

  33. I’ve refrained from commenting on the melon thing until now, because it’s one of those issues on which the Labor luvvies are going to have very set opinions and nothing whatsoever is going to budge them.

    But I am finding myself getting very bored with reading the view that this is all some sort of terrible Murdoch beatup.

    When it first got a bit of coverage a few weeks ago, I checked out the video. It was appalling and horrendously embarrassing and Albanese should feel utterly ashamed about it, as should the ministers and other apologists who have argued that this hand gestures were inadvertent or in some way not meant to suggest what most people watching (other than Labor luvvies) would conclude they were suggesting.

    Anyway, even if I’m wrong and the hand gestures were inadvertent, what on earth was he doing appearing on a show hosted by some sort of a ning nong in a safari suit and which has the moronically crude name “Bush Deep?” What on earth was he trying to prove: that he’s our first 1oo% bogan Prime Minister?

    I think that, on the whole, the guy has been doing a good job, but this is a terrible black mark which, deservedly for him, isn’t going to go away in a hurry. Especially on top of the Kylie stuff.

    Trump has done so much recently to vulgarise governmental processes and practices. The last thing we needed was for an Australian Prime Minister to join in.

    I doubt it will do much damage to our relations with Japan: Takaichi seems to me to be the sort of person who would laugh about this rather than take deep offence. Although, let’s be clear, I think she would be laughing at Albo’s embarrassment, not at what to all intents and purposes appeared to be a crude joke.

    As a friend of my family’s always used to say about people who weren’t really quite the right type, Albo is a bit “Hotel Sordide”, isnt’ he?

  34. Thanks, Hh.

    The Hanson/Taylor government will have to run a referendum to change the Constitution to ensure that their promised national security law changes are legal. The lawyers framing the Referendum questions are going to have their work cut out for them. How to exclude IDF soldiers who are trying to return to Australia fresh from protecting Jewish terrorists who daily assault, bash, terrify and murder West Bank palestinians, for example.

    But we all know that this is racist dog whistling performative politics.

    The Hanson/Taylor government is promising to reduce national housing standards so that slumlords can increase their profits. This is not performative politics. They mean this one. It is core ideological business for the Hanson/Taylor government will be strip standards in every public domain.

  35. The NZ Nationals Caucus has been going for 45 minutes without resolution.
    The poll just out had Luxon as preferred PM of just 17% of the voters.
    However, Chris Hipkins of Labour is only on 15%.

  36. And zoomster, I love you dearly, but

    Albo made a sweeping motion with his hands. Yes, if you pressed ‘pause’, at one stage his hands – far, far apart, too far apart to be imitating breasts – hovered in the area of his chest.

    It didn’t look anything like a cupping motion.

    He spoke the words “a couple of melons” while moving his hands towards his chest in what was entirely the appropriate motion… Appropriate, that is, if you happen to be Benny Hill. If it was inadvertent, it was extremely unfortunate timing.

  37. I suspect the leaked Japanese diplomatic note was actually leaked by Japan in an attempt to kill off the beat up
    They’re obviously not familiar with how feral the Australian media and LNP politicians are so it misfired badly.

  38. Just heard Senator Cash on the TV and the famous raucous delivery was reduced to a bit above a whisper. Winter respiratory infections are no respecters of politicians by the sound of it

  39. The Australian is telling us that the Great Barrier Reef is just fine…

    Meanwhile… Australian fire crews are fighting fires in europe and the the US, the US has just had its hottest month since 1885, the 40 million people who depend on the Colorado Basin/Oglalla Aquifer are facing the ‘pay-later’ bit of ‘fly now pay later’ by way of an over-extended water budget, and significant parts of China are under water…

    Oh, and a record El Nino looms.

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