Category: Federal Politics 2025-2028

RedBridge Group: Labor 29, One Nation 31, Coalition 22 (open thread)

One Nation records its best poll result in six weeks, as Labor slumps on various two-party preferred measures.

The Financial Review has its monthly poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, which is somewhat at odds with recent trends in recording a two-point rise for One Nation to 31%, equalling their best-ever result the month before last, and the Greens slumping four points to 10%. Less unusual is a four-point rise for the Coalition to 22%, but it’s typically been accompanied by softer results for One Nation. Labor meanwhile is down a point to 29%.

Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and it records what may be its worst result of the term in trailing the Coalition 52-48, after leading 54-46 last month. Using preference flows from the previous election (which involves extrapolating the 6.4% who voted One Nation to the 31% recorded in the current poll), a Labor lead of 55-45 last month becomes a 50-50 tie.

For leadership ratings, only net favourability is provided – I will hopefully be able to break this out into favourable and unfavourable later today. Anthony Albanese is down a point to minus 19; Angus Taylor is up three to minus six and Pauline Hanson is steady on minus 10. The three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese down a point to 32%, Pauline Hanson up one to 24% and Angus Taylor up four to 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1001.

UPDATE: Leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down a point on favourable to 30%, up three on neutral to 19% and steady on 49% unfavourable; Angus Taylor is up three to 20%, up three to 31% and steady on 26%; and Pauline Hanson down one to 36%, up four to 15% and down one to 46%. Also featured in the poll are one off personal ratings for Gina Rinehart (27% favourable, 27% neutral, 36% unfavourable) and John Howard (43%, 28% and 21%).

Federal polls: YouGov, Spectre Strategy, Essential Research (open thread)

Three new federal polls tell a similar story on voting intention, with two showing a marked deterioration in Angus Taylor’s standing.

The fortnightly result from the YouGov poll series now known as News24 Pulse has Labor steady on 28%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition up two to 22% and the Greens up one to 13%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures give Labor unchanged leads of 53-47 over the Coalition and 56-44 over One Nation. Anthony Albanese is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and 55% respectively, while Angus Taylor is unchanged at 33% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister narrow from 45-34 to 43-37 against Taylor and from 54-35 to 52-37 against Hanson. The poll also finds only 10% rate that multiculturalism has “not served Australia well”, with 37% rating it an unalloyed good and 46% good but “becoming a problem”. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1519.

Also out is the fourth poll for the term from Spectre Strategy, whose primary votes of Labor 28%, One Nation 26%, Coalition 23% and Greens 12% differ from their April result only in being a point lower for the Coalition. Labor has a steady respondent-allocated two-party lead over the Coalition of 51-49, while that over One Nation widens from 52-48 to 54-46. Quite a few of the poll’s other indicators were improved for Labor after bad results in April, including Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which are up two on favourable to 33%, up four on neutral to 19% and down five on unfavourable to 47%. Angus Taylor is down two to 26%, up two to 34% and up eight to 33%, while Pauline Hanson is down two to 41%, up two to 16% and up two to 42%.

The Essential Research has updated its website with its monthly voting intention result, which has Labor up one to 31%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens up two to 12%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has been particularly sticky for Labor, now has Labor leading 48-47 after trailing 48-46 last time. Angus Taylor takes a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 33% and up seven on disapproval to 44%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 38% and up one to 52%. The poll had a sample of 1060 and I assume was conducted last Wednesday through to Monday. The Guardian reports further results on the salience of various issues and how the government has handled them, which should shortly be published along with other attitudinal results on the pollster’s website.

Federal polls: DemosAU MRP poll and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest endeavour to project seat outcomes from a large-sample poll points to a hung parliament and a decimated Coalition.

DemosAU has published its quarterly MRP poll for Capital Brief, which combines demographic modelling with a large-sample survey of 9343. This has produced its most radical result yet with respect to One Nation, showing a median projection of 68 seats for Labor (down 15 on the first quarter MRP and 26 on the 2025 election), from a primary vote that drops three points to 26%; 60 for One Nation (up eight on the first quarter), who gain three to 30%; 13 for the Coalition (up four on the first quarter and down 30 on the 2025 election), who are steady on 21%; three for the Greens (up two on both the first quarter and the 2025 election result), who are up one to 13%; and six others (up one on the first quarter, but down six on 2025).

Compared with the first quarter result, One Nation is now rated the more likely winner in Labor-held Paterson, Eden-Monaro, Ballarat, McEwen, Petrie, Dickson, Moore, Pearce, Bass, Lyons and Lingiari, together with Liberal-held Cook; the Coalition has recovered front-runner position from One Nation in Casey, Flinders and Moncrieff, as has Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo; Liberal are now rated favourites over Labor in Chisholm; and the Greens are rated favourites in Labor-held Richmond and Brisbane. The survey period was May 27 to July 11; plentiful further detail is available from the pollster’s full report.

Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan result, which has Labor steady on 27.5%, One Nation up three to 25.5%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 55-45 to 53.5-46.5, and its leads over the Coalition narrow from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on 2025 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1643.

Morgan: Labor 27.5, Coalition 23, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)

Roy Morgan maintains the mixed picture of recent polling for One Nation, reversing their strong gain of a week ago.

The weekly federal poll from Roy Morgan has maintained its recent volatile form with respect to One Nation, who return to the 22.5% they recorded a fortnight ago before spiking to 26% last week. The beneficiaries on this occasion are the Coalition, up three to 23%, while Labor is steady on 27.5% and the Greens are up a point-and-a-half to 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 52.5-47.5 to 55-45. Against the Coalition, Labor’s lead is out from 54-46 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1679.

Federal redistributions: South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT

Radical boundary changes in Tasmania, minor ones in South Australia and the ACT, and limited political implications all round.

Assuming the government serves out a more-or-less full term, the next federal election will be held under new boundaries in three states and one territory, the exceptions being New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Queensland’s redistribution has been held up pending official confirmation that its population growth will not entitle it to a new seat, but the other three redistribution processes have reached their fruition over the past fortnight, barring the delicate question of nomenclature.

The finalised boundaries for South Australia cancel two of the changes from the proposed boundaries published in March, leaving only the transfer of 10% of Spence’s voters to its northern Adelaide neighbour Makin, and small transfers from Mayo to Boothby and Barker. The former have little impact on the substantial Labor margins in both of the affected seats, while the latter adds half-a-point to Rebekha Sharkie’s margin in Mayo. Beyond that, the regional and remote seat of Grey, which bears the name of a colonial governor, will become O’Donoghue, in honour of the late Aboriginal leader Lowitja O’Donoghue.

Tasmania’s redistribution is as radical as South Australia’s is conservative, and has an extra layer of interest in also providing the boundaries for state elections (votes shares at state level have been calculated by Ben Raue). Where formerly Clark accommodated Hobart’s core and Franklin its south and east, the redistribution has made a hard boundary out of the Derwent River, causing Franklin — which has the proposed new name of Tongerlongeter (subject of a critical opinion piece by Tony Abbott in The Weekend Australian) — to lose the suburbs and periphery south of Hobart to Clark. Clark’s gains are balanced by transferring northern Hobart to what had previously been the largely rural electorate of Lyons, while Franklin extends up the state’s east coast as far as Bicheno, taking a large chunk of what had formerly been Lyons.

For all their scope, the impact of the changes appears remarkably modest in electoral terms. None of the changes I estimate in the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party margins reach a full percentage point, and One Nation, who would appear to be a competitive prospect in the state’s regional seats, has had minimal change to its primary vote shares. Losing a large chunk of the territory he has serviced since 2010 will not help Andrew Wilkie, but he likely remains safe: the transfer to Lyons (which accounts for 43% of the enrolment) is not his strongest territory, and future state independent Peter George scored 22.9% in the area being gained from Franklin, much of which would doubtless transfer to Wilkie.

The minimal changes arising from the Australian Capital Territory redistribution were covered in a post a fortnight ago. My own calculations for new margins and party vote shares are accounted for in very great detail in spreadsheets for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Similar exercises can be found on the sites of Antony Green and Ben Raue.

Newspoll: Labor 30, One Nation 30, Coalition 19 (open thread)

Newspoll bucks recent trends in finding One Nation as strong as ever, with Labor failing to sustain a gain from last time.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor losing a three-point gain it made in the last poll three weeks ago, putting them back at 30%. The uneven polling picture for One Nation is maintained with a one-point increase to 30%, only one point shy of its record result from the poll before last. The Coalition is up two to 19% after descending from 21% in April to 17% late last month. The Greens are down a point to 12%, having bumped around in a range from 11% to 13% since the start of the term.

Anthony Albanese is on 39% approval and 57% disapproval while Angus Taylor is on 30% and 51%, which in both cases are down one on approval and steady on disapproval. Albanese’s lead over Angus Taylor on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-36 to 44-36, and a three-way version of the question has Albanese down three to 46%, Taylor up two to 22%, and Pauline Hanson up one to 32%. Hanson is up a point on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1238.

Federal polls: YouGov, DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Broadly similar voting intention numbers from three separate pollsters, though they have followed different paths to get there.

Three new federal polls produce a range of movements for the leading parties, partly but not entirely due to their different time scales (weekly for one poll, fortnightly for another, monthly for a third). The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov, which was an outlier last time in failing to show a drop for One Nation, comes good this time with a four-point drop to 26%, while Labor is down a point to 28%, the Coalition are up three to 20% and the Greens are down one to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred measures have Labor’s lead out from 54-46 to 56-44 against One Nation, and in from 54-46 to 53-47 against the Coalition. Pauline Hanson also takes a hit on preferred prime minister against Anthony Albanese, whose lead is out from 49-40 to 54-35. Albanese is up two on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is down three to 33% and up two to 49%, and Albanese’s lead over Taylor as preferred prime minister is out from 44-35 to 45-34. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1468.

The monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief has Labor down one to 26%, One Nation down one to 29%, the Coalition up three to 21% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are down one for positive to 25%, up two for neutral to 27% and and down one for negative to 48%; Angus Taylor is up two on positive to 24%, down one for neutral to 49% and down one for negative to 27%; and Pauline Hanson is down three on positive to 34%, steady on 23% neutral and up three on negative to 43%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 35%, Taylor up three to 22% and Hanson down two to 26%. Head-to-head ratings, which weren’t included last time, have Albanese and Taylor tied at 38-all, and Albanese leading Hanson 42-37. The poll was conducted July 3 to 8 from a sample of 2694.

As with the weekend’s Resolve Strategic poll, respondents were queried about their views on a range of statements advanced by Pauline Hanson during her National Press Club speech, with distinctly less favourable results – the most obvious explanation being that Resolve Strategic’s question specifically identified the views with Hanson whereas DemosAU did not. Resolve had 33% in favour and 39% opposed on the question of whether Australia “should be monocultural, rather than multicultural”, while an all but identically worded proposition from DemosAU has 25% in favour and 51% opposed. Hanson’s proposal for the ABC had 31% in favour and 40% opposed from Resolve, while DemosAU respectively has it at 21% and 54%. Where Resolve had 32% in favour and 36% against the contention that “it should be easier for companies to sack people”, DemosAU had 32% in favour and 43% opposed to the seemingly more gently worded “employers should have more flexibility to dismiss workers”.

After recording a nine-point slump for One Nation over its two previous polls, the weekly Roy Morgan series has them bouncing back five-and-a-half points to 28%, with Labor down half a point to 27.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 20% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation has duly narrowed, from 56-44 to 52.5-47.5, and its leads over the Coalition have narrowed from 55-45 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1612.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 26, Coalition 23 (open thread)

Another poll finds One Nation taking a knock, the dividend this time yielded by a still struggling Coalition.

The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers is the latest to record a decline in support for One Nation, though the three-point drop on last month to 26% still leaves them ahead of the 24% recorded in the post-budget poll in May. The Coalition is up three to 23%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 28% and 12% respectively.

Movement on the three-way preferred prime minister question, which was posed for the first time last month, is yet more pronounced: Pauline Hanson slumps eight points to 25% with Anthony Albanese up four to 33% and Angus Taylor up five to 21%. Albanese’s combined very good plus good rating is up four points to 39%, his best since December, while poor and very poor are down two to 53%. Angus Taylor is respectively up three to 41% and up two to 34%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, who recorded a positive rating of 45%, but the negative rating is not provided in the report.

Responses were gauged to 13 propositions advanced by Hanson in her National Press Club speech, including some that polled favourably because they were unobjectionable. Of interest was that 39% agreed with Hanson that zero should be dropped and fossil fuels favoured over renewables in future, compared with 33% who were neutral and 27% who disagreed, a distinctly more climate-skeptical result than is usual from such questions. Hanson scored predictably well on immigration, but less so on cutting public broadcasting and withdrawing from the United Nations.

The poll had an unusually large sample of 2252, with around 1800 being the norm. I believe this is because its Victorian samples are being beefed up from now until the November state election to allow for monthly state poll results from samples of around 1000, as compared with the pollster’s normal practice of publishing bi-monthly results combining samples of around 500 from two national polls (as it will continue to do for New South Wales).

Page 1 of 14
1 2 … 14