Category: Federal Politics 2025-2028

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 26, Coalition 23 (open thread)

No change whatsoever in voting intention in the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which features further questions on budget measures and immigration.

Nine Newspapers reports the latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll records no change on voting intention since last month, with Labor on 28%, One Nation on 26%, the Coalition on 23% and the Greens on 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down two to 37%, with poor and very poor steady on 53%. Angus Taylor is down a point on both to 40% and 33%, while Pauline Hanson is at 46% (up one on last month) and 41% (last month’s result was not reported). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down a point to 32%, Angus Taylor down two to 19% and Pauline Hanson up one to 26%. Further detail can be found on a redesigned Resolve Monitor display on the Nine Newspapers sites.

A series of questions the series has posed since the May budget offer the government some encouragement. Over four monthly iterations, support for winding back negative gearing has gone from 35% to 33% to 37% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 26% to 23% to 20%; while support for changes to the capital gains tax discount has gone from 36% to 31% to 35% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 31% to 24% to 21%. The poll also finds 60% support for the objective of bringing house prices down, down one on last month, with only 10% opposed, up one. Labor does less well out of a question on its handling of immigration: 26% says it has handled it in “a carefully planned and managed way”, with 54% rating it “unplanned and unmanaged”. Fifty-six per cent said they would support stricter visa controls, with only 14% opposed.

The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2256, a temporary increase on the usual 1600 or so. This allows the surveys to double as monthly polls of state voting intention in Victoria ahead of its election in late November, which will presumably follow over the coming days. On that note, a Victorian poll from DemosAU/Premier National was published today, which I will have a post on overnight.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

A volatile poll series finds Labor at a new low, while a more stable one records little change.

The fortnightly YouGov poll, which is now branded News24 Pulse following Sky News’ name change, is little changed on last time: Labor is steady on 28%, One Nation down one to 24%, the Coalition steady on 22% and the Greens down one to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have Labor leading the Coalition 52-48, which is in from 53-47, and One Nation by 56-44, which is unchanged. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor is up two to 35% and down three to 46%. Albanese holds a preferred prime minister lead of 42-38 over Angus Taylor, in from 43-37, and leads Pauline Hanson 51-38, in from 52-37. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Monday – the sample size remains to be seen, but would have been around 1500.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 25.5%, their worst result for the term, but with the Coalition also down, by a point-and-a-half to 22%. One Nation is up two to 26%, while the Greens are up half to 15.5%, their equal best result for the term. Respondent-allocated two-party results have Labor leading both One Nation and the Coalition by 53-47, which is respectively in from 54-46 and out from 52-48, while Labor’s lead on previous election preferences narrows from 52.5-47.5 to 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1647.

Newspoll: Labor 29, One Nation 29, Coalition 18 (open thread)

The latest Newspoll finds improved personal ratings for Angus Taylor failing to translate on voting intention.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor down a point on three weeks ago to 29%, its weakest result since the government came to power; the Coalition down a point to 18%, a point higher than its record low in late June; One Nation down a point to 29%; and the Greens up two to 14%.

The most substantial change in the poll is an improvement in Angus Taylor’s personal ratings, his approval up four to 34% and disapproval down five to 46%. Only net ratings are provided for Anthony Albanese, who is down from minus 18 to minus 22 (UPDATE: down two on disapproval to 37% and up two on disapproval to 59%), and Pauline Hanson, who is down from neutral to minus three (UPDATE: down one on disapproval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 49%). Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister narrows from 44-36 to 44-37, while a three-way question has Anthony Albanese steady on 46%, Pauline Hanson down one to 31% and Angus Taylor up one to 23%. The report also says that some manner of head-to-head result has Albanese leading Hanson 56-44. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1242.

RedBridge Group: Labor 29, One Nation 31, Coalition 22 (open thread)

One Nation records its best poll result in six weeks, as Labor slumps on various two-party preferred measures.

The Financial Review has its monthly poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, which is somewhat at odds with recent trends in recording a two-point rise for One Nation to 31%, equalling their best-ever result the month before last, and the Greens slumping four points to 10%. Less unusual is a four-point rise for the Coalition to 22%, but it’s typically been accompanied by softer results for One Nation. Labor meanwhile is down a point to 29%.

Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and it records what may be its worst result of the term in trailing the Coalition 52-48, after leading 54-46 last month. Using preference flows from the previous election (which involves extrapolating the 6.4% who voted One Nation to the 31% recorded in the current poll), a Labor lead of 55-45 last month becomes a 50-50 tie.

For leadership ratings, only net favourability is provided – I will hopefully be able to break this out into favourable and unfavourable later today. Anthony Albanese is down a point to minus 19; Angus Taylor is up three to minus six and Pauline Hanson is steady on minus 10. The three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese down a point to 32%, Pauline Hanson up one to 24% and Angus Taylor up four to 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1001.

UPDATE: Leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down a point on favourable to 30%, up three on neutral to 19% and steady on 49% unfavourable; Angus Taylor is up three to 20%, up three to 31% and steady on 26%; and Pauline Hanson down one to 36%, up four to 15% and down one to 46%. Also featured in the poll are one off personal ratings for Gina Rinehart (27% favourable, 27% neutral, 36% unfavourable) and John Howard (43%, 28% and 21%).

Federal polls: YouGov, Spectre Strategy, Essential Research (open thread)

Three new federal polls tell a similar story on voting intention, with two showing a marked deterioration in Angus Taylor’s standing.

The fortnightly result from the YouGov poll series now known as News24 Pulse has Labor steady on 28%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition up two to 22% and the Greens up one to 13%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures give Labor unchanged leads of 53-47 over the Coalition and 56-44 over One Nation. Anthony Albanese is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and 55% respectively, while Angus Taylor is unchanged at 33% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister narrow from 45-34 to 43-37 against Taylor and from 54-35 to 52-37 against Hanson. The poll also finds only 10% rate that multiculturalism has “not served Australia well”, with 37% rating it an unalloyed good and 46% good but “becoming a problem”. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1519.

Also out is the fourth poll for the term from Spectre Strategy, whose primary votes of Labor 28%, One Nation 26%, Coalition 23% and Greens 12% differ from their April result only in being a point lower for the Coalition. Labor has a steady respondent-allocated two-party lead over the Coalition of 51-49, while that over One Nation widens from 52-48 to 54-46. Quite a few of the poll’s other indicators were improved for Labor after bad results in April, including Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, which are up two on favourable to 33%, up four on neutral to 19% and down five on unfavourable to 47%. Angus Taylor is down two to 26%, up two to 34% and up eight to 33%, while Pauline Hanson is down two to 41%, up two to 16% and up two to 42%.

The Essential Research has updated its website with its monthly voting intention result, which has Labor up one to 31%, One Nation down one to 25%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens up two to 12%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has been particularly sticky for Labor, now has Labor leading 48-47 after trailing 48-46 last time. Angus Taylor takes a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 33% and up seven on disapproval to 44%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 38% and up one to 52%. The poll had a sample of 1060 and I assume was conducted last Wednesday through to Monday. The Guardian reports further results on the salience of various issues and how the government has handled them, which should shortly be published along with other attitudinal results on the pollster’s website.

Federal polls: DemosAU MRP poll and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest endeavour to project seat outcomes from a large-sample poll points to a hung parliament and a decimated Coalition.

DemosAU has published its quarterly MRP poll for Capital Brief, which combines demographic modelling with a large-sample survey of 9343. This has produced its most radical result yet with respect to One Nation, showing a median projection of 68 seats for Labor (down 15 on the first quarter MRP and 26 on the 2025 election), from a primary vote that drops three points to 26%; 60 for One Nation (up eight on the first quarter), who gain three to 30%; 13 for the Coalition (up four on the first quarter and down 30 on the 2025 election), who are steady on 21%; three for the Greens (up two on both the first quarter and the 2025 election result), who are up one to 13%; and six others (up one on the first quarter, but down six on 2025).

Compared with the first quarter result, One Nation is now rated the more likely winner in Labor-held Paterson, Eden-Monaro, Ballarat, McEwen, Petrie, Dickson, Moore, Pearce, Bass, Lyons and Lingiari, together with Liberal-held Cook; the Coalition has recovered front-runner position from One Nation in Casey, Flinders and Moncrieff, as has Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo; Liberal are now rated favourites over Labor in Chisholm; and the Greens are rated favourites in Labor-held Richmond and Brisbane. The survey period was May 27 to July 11; plentiful further detail is available from the pollster’s full report.

Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan result, which has Labor steady on 27.5%, One Nation up three to 25.5%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 55-45 to 53.5-46.5, and its leads over the Coalition narrow from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on 2025 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1643.

Morgan: Labor 27.5, Coalition 23, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)

Roy Morgan maintains the mixed picture of recent polling for One Nation, reversing their strong gain of a week ago.

The weekly federal poll from Roy Morgan has maintained its recent volatile form with respect to One Nation, who return to the 22.5% they recorded a fortnight ago before spiking to 26% last week. The beneficiaries on this occasion are the Coalition, up three to 23%, while Labor is steady on 27.5% and the Greens are up a point-and-a-half to 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 52.5-47.5 to 55-45. Against the Coalition, Labor’s lead is out from 54-46 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1679.

Federal redistributions: South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT

Radical boundary changes in Tasmania, minor ones in South Australia and the ACT, and limited political implications all round.

Assuming the government serves out a more-or-less full term, the next federal election will be held under new boundaries in three states and one territory, the exceptions being New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Queensland’s redistribution has been held up pending official confirmation that its population growth will not entitle it to a new seat, but the other three redistribution processes have reached their fruition over the past fortnight, barring the delicate question of nomenclature.

The finalised boundaries for South Australia cancel two of the changes from the proposed boundaries published in March, leaving only the transfer of 10% of Spence’s voters to its northern Adelaide neighbour Makin, and small transfers from Mayo to Boothby and Barker. The former have little impact on the substantial Labor margins in both of the affected seats, while the latter adds half-a-point to Rebekha Sharkie’s margin in Mayo. Beyond that, the regional and remote seat of Grey, which bears the name of a colonial governor, will become O’Donoghue, in honour of the late Aboriginal leader Lowitja O’Donoghue.

Tasmania’s redistribution is as radical as South Australia’s is conservative, and has an extra layer of interest in also providing the boundaries for state elections (votes shares at state level have been calculated by Ben Raue). Where formerly Clark accommodated Hobart’s core and Franklin its south and east, the redistribution has made a hard boundary out of the Derwent River, causing Franklin — which has the proposed new name of Tongerlongeter (subject of a critical opinion piece by Tony Abbott in The Weekend Australian) — to lose the suburbs and periphery south of Hobart to Clark. Clark’s gains are balanced by transferring northern Hobart to what had previously been the largely rural electorate of Lyons, while Franklin extends up the state’s east coast as far as Bicheno, taking a large chunk of what had formerly been Lyons.

For all their scope, the impact of the changes appears remarkably modest in electoral terms. None of the changes I estimate in the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party margins reach a full percentage point, and One Nation, who would appear to be a competitive prospect in the state’s regional seats, has had minimal change to its primary vote shares. Losing a large chunk of the territory he has serviced since 2010 will not help Andrew Wilkie, but he likely remains safe: the transfer to Lyons (which accounts for 43% of the enrolment) is not his strongest territory, and future state independent Peter George scored 22.9% in the area being gained from Franklin, much of which would doubtless transfer to Wilkie.

The minimal changes arising from the Australian Capital Territory redistribution were covered in a post a fortnight ago. My own calculations for new margins and party vote shares are accounted for in very great detail in spreadsheets for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Similar exercises can be found on the sites of Antony Green and Ben Raue.

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