Category: Federal Politics 2025-2028

The latest fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records only minor change on the last result, although Labor’s one-point drop to 25% is noteworthy in being a new low for them in this series. One Nation is up a point to 28%, the Coalition is steady on 21% and the Greens are up one to a new peak of 15%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure is in from 55-45 to 53-47, while its lead over the Coalition on the previous election flows two-party measure is unchanged at 52-48.

Anthony Albanese is unchanged at 33% approval and down one to 61% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down two to 34% and up three to 51%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is down to 40-39, in from 41-37 last time, and his lead over Hanson has narrowed from 50-38 to 50-40. The poll also finds 63-37 breaking against Jim Chalmers’ proposition that last week’s interest rate increase was “primarily the result of the conflict in the Middle East”. It was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1505.

The Financial Review has its monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll, showing One Nation gaining a point to lead on the primary vote with 29%, Labor down one to 28%, the Coalition down one to 21% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll is distinctive in crediting the Coalition with a 54-46 two-party lead over Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52-48, albeit that the Coalition would clearly be running third in most seats on these numbers. A measure based on 2025 election preference flows shows 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 last time. Labor holds an unchanged respondent-allocated lead of 52-48 over One Nation.

The report has net approval ratings for various figures, for which I will hopefully be able to provide more detail later today. Anthony Albanese has slumped ten points to a net minus 27%, Jim Chalmers is down nine to 23%, Pauline Hanson is up two to minus 10, and Angus Taylor is down three to minus six. Respondents were also asked about Michelle Bullock, who was at minus three, though the uncommitted rate here would be worth knowing. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 31%, Hanson up two to 26% and Taylor steady on 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1000.

Note also the post below on today’s Brazilian presidential election.

Two federal polls that reported this week:

• The monthly Essential Research poll recorded a recovery for Labor after a particularly bad result last time, up three on the primary vote to 29%, with the Coalition down four to 22%, One Nation up two to 25%, the Greens down one to 12% and undecided up one to 6%. Labor edged into a 48-46 lead over the Coalition on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, after the Coalition led 50-45 last time. Anthony Albanese was up two on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor was down one to 31% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The full report features extensive further questions on immigration (including a finding that general attitudes have improved since April, with 46% viewing it as generally positive and 39% as generally negative, up five and down six respectively), one on gambling, and another on (indirectly) Ed Sheeran. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1008.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll breaks from the pollster’s recent practice in encompassing a fortnight of surveying, and presumably half consists of the result that was published last week, with an overall sample of 2569. The movements on last week’s result are duly more modest than Morgan’s recent form, which was presumably the idea: Labor up one to 26%, One Nation steady on 25.5%, the Coalition up one to 22.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor is out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and steady on 52-48 on previous election flows. With its expanded sample, the release linked to above also treats us to full voting intention breakdowns from the mainland states.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, which are notable in having both major parties well down on the April-June aggregation in Queensland (Labor down five to 25%, the Coalition down three to 19%, the Greens up three to 12% and One Nation up four to 36%) and the Coalition running fourth in South Australia (Labor steady on 32%, One Nation down one to 31%, Greens steady on 14%, Coalition down three to 13%), albeit that the sample in the latter case is only 369.

As well as being well ahead of both major parties in Queensland, One Nation is one point clear in New South Wales and only one point behind Labor in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor is down five among the 35-to-49 age cohort, compared with one to three among the other three, and One Nation is up four among 18-to-34 and three among 35-to-49, while being little changed among the older cohorts, although the party’s support is still by some distance weakest among 18-to-34. Labor is down six points among those on incomes below $50,000 and, no doubt relatedly, eight points among renters, while One Nation is respectively up four and five.

The results are combined from four polls conducted between July 13 and September 18 from an overall sample of 4967.

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor steady on 26% (after dropping three points last time), One Nation down three to 27%, the Coalition up three to 21% and the Greens up two to 14%. Labor remains ahead on two-party preferred, with leads of 55-45 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 52-48 over the Coalition (unchanged). Anthony Albanese’s leadership ratings are similar to those recorded by Newspoll, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up three to 62%, while Angus Taylor is unchanged at 36% and 48%. Albanese retains preferred prime minister leads of 41-37 over Taylor (43-39 a fortnight ago) and 50-38 (51-40). The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1471; extensive demographic breakdowns on voting intention can be found in the News24 report.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll records unusually little change, with Labor steady on 25%, One Nation up half a point to 25.5%, the Coalition steady on 21.5% and the Greens down half a point to 15.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead against One Nation is in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead is in from 55-45 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52-48 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1561.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has One Nation widening a primary vote lead by holding steady on 30% while Labor falls two to 27%, and the Coalition and the Greens remain unchanged at 19% and 13% respectively. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 62%. The one indication Pauline Hanson has been harmed by recent bad press is her personal ratings, with approval down three to 44% and disapproval up three to 51%. Of Angus Taylor we are told only that his net rating has improved from minus 17 to minus 15 (UPDATE: Up two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%), but he has almost closed the gap on head-to-head preferred prime minister, on which Albanese’s lead has narrowed from to 44-35 to 42-41. The three-way measure has ­Albanese down two to 44%, Hanson up one to 32% and Taylor up one to 24%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1244.

The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief departs from the pack in recording a five-point drop in Coalition support to 20%, with Labor up two to 28%, One Nation up two to 26% and the Greens up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on his positive rating to 29%, up one on neutral to 26% and down two on negative to 45%; Angus Taylor is entirely unchanged at 23%, 50% and 27%; and Pauline Hanson is up two to 32%, up one to 24% and down three to 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 36%, Taylor down two to 21% and Hanson up three to 25%.

The poll also finds 65% agreeing that social media platforms “should be legally required to reduce risks” compared with 22% for an alternative option of them being “free to decide”. It was conducted last Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1583; extensive breakdowns of the voting intention results are as usual featured in the report on the pollster’s website.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two to 25%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 25%, the Coalition down two to 21.5%, and the Greens up one-and-a-half to 16%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5, and its leads over the Coalition are out from 53-47 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted September 7 to 13 from a sample of 1583.

Also out from Morgan this week was data compiled from its polling throughout this year breaking out One Nation support by country of birth. While many of the sub-samples would have been exceedingly small, it paints an interesting overall picture, having support for the party at 36% among those born in South Africa, around 30% among continental Europeans, around 25% among those born in Australia, the UK and New Zealand, and lower elsewhere, although the party managed 17% among those born in the Middle East compared with around 10% among those born in eastern and southern Asia.