Category: Federal Politics 2025-2028

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records next to no change on voting intention, with Labor up a point from their nadir to 25%, One Nation steady at 27%, the Coalition steady at 23% and the Greens down one to 13%. The Labor-versus-Coalition two-party result, which is based on preference flows in 2025, remains tied; Labor’s lead over One Nation, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences, widens from 54-46 to 53-47. The poll is distinctive in being first to show Anthony Albanese trailing Angus Taylor on preferred prime minister, Taylor’s 41-39 lead being a reversal of the result last time. Conversely, Albanese’s lead over Pauline Hanson widens from 50-42 to 51-39. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.

The Australian reports the regular three-weekly Newspoll has Labor down two points to 27%, putting One Nation back in the lead as they hold steady on 28%. The Coalition gains a point to 21% and the Greens are down one to 13%. Leadership ratings are little changed for Anthony Albanese (steady on 36% approval and down one on disapproval to 59%) and Angus Taylor (up one to 37% and steady on 47%), but Pauline Hanson is up four on approval to 47% and down four on disapproval to 48%, for whatever reason.

The three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down one to 44%, Pauline Hanson steady on 30% and Angus Taylor up one to 26%. On the conventional measure, Albanese’s lead over Taylor narrows from 44-39 to 42-40. Also featured are ratings for seven senior ministers, Penny Wong emerging strongest with high name recognition and a slight net positive result (38% satisfied, 15% neutral, 36% dissatisfied), while Jim Chalmers scores 24% satisfied, 16% neutral, 40% dissatisfied. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1200.

We also have the monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, which finds the Coalition up four points to 24%, bouncing back after a four-point drop last time. Both Labor (who are down two) and One Nation (steady) on 26%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The seat estimates rate Labor unlikely to retain a majority, with a range of 64 to 77 out of 150 seats, with ranges of 37 to 56 for the Coalition, 18 to 32 for One Nation and zero to four for the Greens. Albanese’s personal ratings are 26% positive (down three), 28% neutral (up two) and 46% negative (up one); Taylor is at 27% (up four), 47% (down three) and 26% (down one); and Hanson is at 31% (down one), 24% (steady) and 45% (up one). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 36%, Taylor up one to 22% and Hanson down two to 23%. Head-to-head, Albanese leads Taylor 39-36 (in from 39-35) and Hanson 43-33 (in from 45-33). The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1500.

Also out today from Brisbane’s Sunday Mail is a federal voting intention result from the recent DemosAU Queensland poll. This has Labor running third in the state at 23%, with One Nation on 31%, the Coalition on 24% and the Greens on 12%. The poll was conducted October 14 to 21 from a sample of 1200.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition nudging into second place with a two-point gain to 23.5%, while One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 22.5%. Labor is steady on 26% and the Greens have gained half a point to 15.5%. Labor holds respondent-allocated two-party leads of 55-45 over One Nation, out from 54.5-45.5, and 52.5-47.5 over One Nation, in from 53-47. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on previous election preference flows is in from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47. The poll was conducted October 12 to 25 from a sample of 2711. The full release features breakdowns for the five mainland states.

UPDATE (28/10): The monthly Essential Research poll has Labor down one to 28%, One Nation up three to 28%, the Coalition up one to 23%, the Greens steady on 12%, the remainder including a 4% undecided component. For what it’s worth while they are running third, the pollster’s 2PP+ measure gives the Coalition its best result over Labor in years, a 52-44 lead comparing with 48-46 in Labor’s favour last time. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor records strong improvement with a four-point increase in approval to 35% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 40%.

Also featured is a suite of questions on how various issues would go if One Nation were leading the federal government, with 43% holding that immigration levels would be better handled compared with 32% for worse. The results are net negative across the other nine issues, though by generally modest margins, particularly on government spending and debt and community safety. A question on best party to manage the economy finds 31% opting for Labor, 25% for One Nation and 23% for the Coalition; another on ensuring the economic best interests of Australians has Labor 32%, One Nation 29% and Coalition 18%. The poll has a sample of 1087, and I assume was conducted last Wednesday to Monday.

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll from YouGov gives Labor its worst primary vote result from any poll this term, dropping one point to 24% with One Nation down one to 27%, the Coalition up two to 23% and the Greens down one to 14%. Labor and the Coalition are now tied on a two-party preferred measure based on 2025 election preference flows, after Labor led 52-48 last time. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is unchanged at 53-47.

Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 62%, while Angus Taylor is up one to 35% and down two to 49%, and Pauline Hanson is steady at 50% and up two to 42%. Albanese’s leads of preferred prime minister nudges from 40-39 to 41-39 against Angus Taylor, and from 50-40 to 50-42 against Pauline Hanson (different movements are shown on the News24 site, but I believe mine are correct). The poll was conducted October 13 to 20 from a sample of 1542.

DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.

By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.

The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.

The latest Newspoll result in The Australian has Labor’s primary vote up two points from three weeks ago to 29%, with One Nation down two to 28%, the Coalition up one to 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 36% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Angus Taylor is up one to 36% and down three to 47%; and Pauline Hanson is down one to 43% and up one to 52%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 45%, Hanson down two to 30% and Taylor up one to 25%. Of the traditional preferred prime minister question, we are told that Albanese leads Taylor by five points, compared with a 42-41 lead last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Tuesday from a sample of 1241.

Nine Newspapers also has its monthly Resolve Strategic poll, showing Labor up a point to 29%, One Nation down two to 25%, the Coalition down one to 23% and the Greens up one to 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and result is up two to 36%, with poor and very poor up one to 54%. Angus Taylor is respectively up two to 41% and up three to 33%, and Pauline Hanson is down two to 45% and up four to 41%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up three to 32%, Taylor up one to 22% and Hanson up one to 26%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 2250.

Resolve Strategic should follow up with a Victorian state result over the coming days. There is also a new Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, which is covered at the top of the previous post.

The latest fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov records only minor change on the last result, although Labor’s one-point drop to 25% is noteworthy in being a new low for them in this series. One Nation is up a point to 28%, the Coalition is steady on 21% and the Greens are up one to a new peak of 15%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on the respondent-allocated two-party measure is in from 55-45 to 53-47, while its lead over the Coalition on the previous election flows two-party measure is unchanged at 52-48.

Anthony Albanese is unchanged at 33% approval and down one to 61% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down two to 34% and up three to 51%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is down to 40-39, in from 41-37 last time, and his lead over Hanson has narrowed from 50-38 to 50-40. The poll also finds 63-37 breaking against Jim Chalmers’ proposition that last week’s interest rate increase was “primarily the result of the conflict in the Middle East”. It was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1505.

The Financial Review has its monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll, showing One Nation gaining a point to lead on the primary vote with 29%, Labor down one to 28%, the Coalition down one to 21% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll is distinctive in crediting the Coalition with a 54-46 two-party lead over Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52-48, albeit that the Coalition would clearly be running third in most seats on these numbers. A measure based on 2025 election preference flows shows 50-50, after Labor led 52-48 last time. Labor holds an unchanged respondent-allocated lead of 52-48 over One Nation.

The report has net approval ratings for various figures, for which I will hopefully be able to provide more detail later today. Anthony Albanese has slumped ten points to a net minus 27%, Jim Chalmers is down nine to 23%, Pauline Hanson is up two to minus 10, and Angus Taylor is down three to minus six. Respondents were also asked about Michelle Bullock, who was at minus three, though the uncommitted rate here would be worth knowing. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 31%, Hanson up two to 26% and Taylor steady on 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1000.

Note also the post below on today’s Brazilian presidential election.