Category: Federal Politics 2025-2028

Newspoll in The Australian becomes the latest pollster to have One Nation leading on the primary vote, recording a four-point surge to 31% with Labor down one to 30%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese records his worst net leadership rating to date, with approval down four to 36% and disapproval up three to 60%, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is in from 46-38 to 44-38. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1240.

The fortnightly YouGov Sky News Pulse poll joins RedBridge Group and DemoAU in recording a primary vote lead for One Nation, who have surged four points in the second such poll since the budget to 29%, with Labor down two for the second fortnight in a row, to 26%. The Coalition has more than lost the two-point gain it made in the post-budget poll, being down three to 20%, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Two-party measures have Labor leading One Nation 52.5-47.5, in from 53-47, and the Coalition 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48.

Anthony Albanese has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 60%. He holds a 47-41 lead over Pauline Hanson on preferred prime minister, in from 50-38, and 41-39 over Angus Taylor, in from 41-38. Forty-six per cent of all respondents said they believed the Coalition and One Nation should work together to form government with 31% opposed, breaking down to 45% and 28% among Coalition voters and 53% and 25% among One Nation voters. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to yesterday from a sample of 1471.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has One Nation drawing level with Labor on the primary vote at 27%, with Labor down half a point and One Nation up one-and-a-half, with the Coalition down three to 20% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred is unchanged at 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead improves from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 53.5-46.5 on previous election flows. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1542.

A new poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research for the Financial Review is the strongest yet for One Nation from any pollster, recording a four-point increase on last month’s result to 31%. This puts them well clear of Labor, who are down three to 28%, and particularly the Coalition, who are down two to 20%, while the Greens are down a point to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor with leads of 51-49 over both One Nation and the Coalition, which are respectively in from 55-45 and 54-46 last time.

Anthony Albanese’s combined very favourable and mostly favourable rating is down five to 29%, with unfavourable and very unfavourable up five to 48%, and neither down two to 18%. Pauline Hanson is steady on 40% positive, down one to 40% negative and down one to 14% neutral. Angus Taylor is up one to 21% positive, up three to 25% negative and down four to 23% neutral. Whereas Albanese and Hanson have near total name recognition, 21% say they have never heard from Taylor, down only one on last month. Jim Chalmers’ positive rating is down five to 17% and his negative rating is up eight to 35%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down two to 31%, Pauline Hanson up two to 25% and Angus Taylor steady on 14%. Questions on the budget have 23% rating it good for the country as a whole and 53% bad, with 11% saying it would be good for them personally and 48% bad. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1005.

Also just out is a Fox & Hedgehog poll in the News Corp tabloids, which has Labor on 29% (down a point on the last such poll in late March), One Nation on 27% (up four) and the Coalition on 25% (up two), with no result provided in the report for the Greens (UPDATE: Down three to 10%). Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from the last poll, and Labor leading One Nation 54-46, in from 56-44. The poll also finds 40% agreeing that Pauline Hanson and One Nation are ready for government, with 45% disagreeing. The sample for the poll was 1700, with field work dates not disclosed – hopefully more detail will be provided shortly by the pollster.

UPDATE: Full report from Fox & Hedgehog here. Angus Taylor notably holds a lead on 38-36 lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 39-35 in late March. Albanese is down one on approval to 29%, steady on 19% neutral and up two on disapproval to 51%; Taylor is up five on approval to 29%, down two on neutral to 32% and up five on disapproval to 29% (“never heard of” is down from 18% to 10%). A hypothetical question inclusive of a teal party had it on 6%, with Labor three points to lower at 26%, the Greens one point lower at 9% and the others essentially unchanged. Voluminous further questions on the budget include an overall finding of 19% favourable, 47% unfavourable and 25% neutral. Thirty-two per cent said they had seen the much-hyped social media memes on the budget tax policies, with 60% saying they had not.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 27.5%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation up one to 25.5% and the Greens up two to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. A Labor-versus-One Nation result has the former leading 53.5-46.5 – I believe we may be getting this in future instead of the Labor-versus-Coalition result based on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from 1613.

Also just out is the monthly Essential Research poll, which has Labor down a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation (who have either improved or held steady in every monthly result from this series since March last year) up three to 28% and the Greens steady on 11%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s respondent-allocated 2PP+ measure, which has been weaker for Labor than other pollster’s two-party measures, has Labor in front for the first time since December, the 48-47 result (the balance being undecided) comparing with 49-47 to the Coalition last month. However, personal ratings for Anthony Albanese are his worst yet from this series, his approval down four to 37% and disapproval up three to 54%, and the regular national mood result has a two-point drop in “right direction” to 28% and a four-point increase in “wrong track” to 58%, the worst result since Labor came to power.

Twenty-five per cent expressed approval of the budget with 39% disapproving and 24% neutral, which is at the better end of comparable results in post-budget polling. As in other such polling, responses to its most contentious measures was more positive: winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on property was supported by 33% and opposed by 27%, with 26% neutral; and tax changes on shares and investments were supported by 32% and opposed by 29%, with 26% neutral. However, only 26% supported the changes on trusts, with 38% opposed. Twenty-eight per cent thought the housing system would be more fair for young people, 30% thought less fair and 22% felt it would make no difference.

The immigration policies announced by Angus Taylor in his budget reply speech found strong support, with 58% in favour of capping immigration to the number of new house builds and 14% opposing, and 57% in favour of limiting welfare to Australian citizens, with 19% opposed. The report in The Guardian relates that the sample size was 1027; it was conducted, I assume, from last Wednesday to this Monday. The full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.

A RedBridge Group/Accent Research MRP poll for the Financial Review, based on 6015 responses from April 29 to May 14, has a median seat prediction of 76 seats for Labor, 53 for One Nation, 12 for the Coalition (ten for Liberal, two for Country Liberal – which is to say they are forecast to gain the two Northern Territory seats for Labor), eight for independents, one for Bob Katter and none for the Greens. The first preferences numbers this is based on are Labor 31%, One Nation 28%, Coalition 21% and Greens 11% – a more current field work period would presumably have produced a worse result for Labor. For those new to the multi-level regression with post-stratification concept, the Financial Review explains it “analyses how traits such as age, gender and religion estimate opinions nationwide … then takes those insights and combines them with census data to reconstruct a picture of the area”.

Sixty-two seats out of 150 are rated a better than even chance of changing hands based on the poll’s numbers, which have One Nation gaining all 16 Coalition-held seats in Queensland, all nine of the Nationals’ other seats, 12 seats from the non-Queensland Liberals (mostly regional, but also including urban fringe seats of Lindsay, La Trobe, Casey and Canning) and 16 seats from Labor (nearly all their regional seats, several on metropolitan fringes and two in northern Brisbane). Labor are projected to gain Ryan, Fowler and Mayo from the cross-bench, and Liberal to gain three seats in Melbourne from Labor and Bradfield from teal independent Nicolette Boele.

There is also a conventional federal poll from DemosAU that matches the pollster’s previous result from last month as Labor’s worst since the election, with Labor steady on 26%, the Coalition steady on 23%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up two to 28% – the first primary vote lead recorded by the latter in a regular polling series. The pollster provides a seat projection based on the results that has Labor within a range of 65 to 74, falling short of a majority even at the top end, with One Nation from 47 to 58, the Coalition from 16 to 28, the Greens from one to five and others from two to six.

Respondents were also asked how they would vote if Pauline Hanson retired, it being noted that she is 71, with results of Labor 28%, Coalition 27%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese down a point to 34%, Pauline Hanson up three to 27% and Angus Taylor up one to 23%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are up one on positive to 27%, up one on negative to 47%, with 26% neutral; Angus Taylor is up three on positive to 28%, and down one negative to 27%, with neutral at 47%; and Pauline Hanson is up five to 39%, and down three to 36%, with 25% neutral.

The budget was rated generally bad by 43% and generally good by 23%, with 27% agreeing and 36% disagreeing it would make Australia fairer; 28% agreeing and 39% disagreeing it would help long-term housing affordability; 44% agreeing and 17% disagreeing the tax changes would hurt the economy; and 53% agreeing and 16% disagreeing they would make life harder for the average Australian. Nonetheless, 34% approved of the negative gearing measures with 29% disapproving, 28% approved and 29% disapproved of the capital gains tax discount changes, and 27% approved and 34% disapproved of the maximum 30% tax rate on income from trusts. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502. Extensive breakdowns are available in the full report.

Two further additions to the post-election budget polling pile (perhaps shortly to be joined by Essential Research). The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov finds Labor down two points to 28%, the Coalition up two to 23%, One Nation up one to 25% and the Greens down one to 13%. Labor has two-party leads of 52-48 against the Coalition and 53-47 against One Nation, which are in from 54-46 and 57-43 last time (the latter seemingly being an aberration, the previous result having been 54-46).

Anthony Albanese’s leads as preferred prime minister are in from 45-36 to 41-38 against Angus Taylor and from 54-35 to 50-38 against Pauline Hanson. Approval and disapproval ratings are not yet available, but we are told Anthony Albanese has gone from a net minus 14 to minus 19 (UPDATE: Albanese is down two on approval to 37% and up two on disapproval to 56%; Angus Taylor is down two to 36% and steady on 42%). The poll finds 9% expecting the budget will leave them better off and 44% worse off, with 47% for about the same. Thirty-one per cent agreed the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes would help first homebuyers, with 38% disagreeing and 31% unsure. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Monday, from a sample of around 1500 (UPDATE: 1504, to be precise). I will have further detail later today.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down a point to 29.5%, the Coalition down one to 24%, One Nation up two-and-a-half to 24.5% and the Greens steady on 11.5%. Labor leads 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 53.5-46.5, and 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows, in from 53.5-46.5. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.

As always, a flurry of federal polling is emerging in the wake of the budget, with more to follow over the coming days. Newspoll in The Australian finds Labor holding its ground on 31% of the primary vote, the winners out of any budget backlash seemingly being One Nation, up three to 27%, putting them well ahead of the Coalition, down one to 20%, with the Greens down one to 12%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are unchanged at 40% approval and 57% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is respectively up three to 36% and up two to 48%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Albanese’s lead at 46-38, in from 46-37.

This is despite perceptions of the budget’s impact on the economy being the worst recorded since Labor’s horror post-election budget in 1993 (Newspoll has consistently posed the same suite of post-budget questions since 1988), with 22% rating it good for the economy (in fact no different from last year’s budget, which came six weeks before Labor’s landslide win) and 47% bad (up 15 points on last year). In terms of personal financial impact, the net result is the worst since the Abbott government’s disastrous debut budget in 2014, with 11% expecting they will be better off and 52% worse off. However, this is not immensely worse than for the Albanese government’s first budget in October 2022, for which the respective results were 12% and 47%. On the other regular Newspoll post-budget question, relating to whether the opposition would have done better, the results are unremarkable: 39% say yes and 47% no, compared with 38% and 47% last year.

Further questions find 48% expecting the budget will worsen inflation, 9% improve it, and 32% make no difference; 39% expecting they will pay more tax, 7% less, and 41% no change; 27% rate it a step in the right direction on housing, compared with 38% for wrong direction and 22% for no difference; and 26% felt the government was “rebalancing the playing field to make things further” compared with 47% for “driving a wedge between younger and older generations” and 18% for neither. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1252.

Other polls are less sanguine with respect to Labor’s electoral standing, the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers finding them down three points to 29%, with the Coalition unchanged on 23%, One Nation up one to 24% and the Greens up one to 12%. The poll notably has Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister by 33-30, after Albanese led 33-32 last month. Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 34%, while his poor plus very poor rating is up four to 56%. Taylor is respectively down four to 37% and up three to 29%.

The Resolve Strategic poll finds 24% saying the budget will be good for their household compared with 35% for bad. Thirty-six per cent say the broken promises have damaged their view of Labor, with 31% saying they have not and 14% holding that their view of Labor has improved. However, pluralities are recorded in favour of the changes in capital gains tax, supported by 36% and opposed by 21% with the remainder undecided or neutral, and negative gearing, supported by 35% and opposed by 21%. Of 11 budget measures canvassed, only the cancellation of further work on the Inland Rail project, supported and opposed by 27% apiece, does not find more supportive than opposed.

A Freshwater Strategy poll for the News Corp papers records a tie on two-party preferred, after a 53-47 in the pollster’s last result three weeks ago, with Labor down three on the primary vote to 29%, the Coalition up two to 25%, One Nation up one to 26% and the Greens down one to 11%. The poll finds 21% rating the budget as positive and 46% as negative in terms of economic impact. Forty-five per cent say the changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax and trusts have reduced their trust in Anthony Albanese and Labor, with 13% saying their trust has increased. Forty-one per cent say they are less likely to vote Labor compared with 15% for more likely. Fifty-eight per cent believe the budget increases the chances of further interest rate rises, compared with 10% for decreases and 21% no effect. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1384.

A poll by Wolf & Smith, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 1002 (for “Amplify, a non-partisan community group founded by tech investor Paul Bassat”, as related by the Financial Review), has Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 24%, One Nation on 22%, the Greens on 11% and others on 13%. It finds pluralities in favour of the changes on negative gearing (41% with 32% neutral and 27% opposed) and capital gains tax (38% with 35% neutral and 26% opposed), but only for those who own their homes outright is it felt the impact will more likely be positive than negative (37% positive, 43% neutral, 20% negative), followed by prospective homebuyers (34%, 28% and 38%). Only 16% said the changes would be positive for renters and mortgage-payers, with a respective 45% and 43% expecting it to be negative.

Newspoll didn’t report this week on its normal three-weekly schedule, presumably to allow clear air for the Farrer by-election. But we do have the weekly result from the ever-reliable Roy Morgan, which had Labor up a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one to 25%, One Nation up half to 22% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on preference flows from the 2025 election. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1605.