The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers is the latest to record a decline in support for One Nation, though the three-point drop on last month to 26% still leaves them ahead of the 24% recorded in the post-budget poll in May. The Coalition is up three to 23%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 28% and 12% respectively.
Movement on the three-way preferred prime minister question, which was posed for the first time last month, is yet more pronounced: Pauline Hanson slumps eight points to 25% with Anthony Albanese up four to 33% and Angus Taylor up five to 21%. Albanese’s combined very good plus good rating is up four points to 39%, his best since December, while poor and very poor are down two to 53%. Angus Taylor is respectively up three to 41% and up two to 34%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, who recorded a positive rating of 45%, but the negative rating is not provided in the report.
Responses were gauged to 13 propositions advanced by Hanson in her National Press Club speech, including some that polled favourably because they were unobjectionable. Of interest was that 39% agreed with Hanson that zero should be dropped and fossil fuels favoured over renewables in future, compared with 33% who were neutral and 27% who disagreed, a distinctly more climate-skeptical result than is usual from such questions. Hanson scored predictably well on immigration, but less so on cutting public broadcasting and withdrawing from the United Nations.
The poll had an unusually large sample of 2252, with around 1800 being the norm. I believe this is because its Victorian samples are being beefed up from now until the November state election to allow for monthly state poll results from samples of around 1000, as compared with the pollster’s normal practice of publishing bi-monthly results combining samples of around 500 from two national polls (as it will continue to do for New South Wales).
Any cuts to Australia’s overseas migration intake will cost the federal budget’s bottom line and plunge the country into deeper debt, complicating the equation for political parties as they promise to significantly slow the flow of immigrants into the country.
Fresh costings released by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office on Tuesday show the budget’s underlying cash balance would improve by $80.6 billion in a decade if the annual migrant intake increased by 40,000 more people than current assumptions.
But cutting the assumed annual net migration figure by an extra 40,000 people would deteriorate the bottom line by about $79.1 billion. The reason higher overseas migration improves federal coffers is that migrants are generally younger and arrive in Australia at working age, after most of their education costs have been covered, meaning they deliver more in personal income tax and economic activity than they cost in government spending over time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-loses-billions-nation-in-deeper-debt-the-cost-of-cutting-migration-20260714-p60f3l.html
Confessions
I live in Tangney, not the leafy riverside bit, and I used to be surprised at how many of my neighbours voted Liberal at the local school. I thought of it as a working-middle class suburb!
An influx of migrants over the last decade has changed things around here a lot.
A party that campaigns against migration won’t get much traction against Sam Lim.
That’s out of touch.
Confessionssays:
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:14 pm
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-loses-billions-nation-in-deeper-debt-the-cost-of-cutting-migration-20260714-p60f3l.html
We’re about to see a real time example of this in the US where ICE have resumed and escalated operations to capture, detain and deport approx 3000 people a day after slowing down and going dark after the Minneapolis catastrophes.
Good luck, America. And good luck, Australia if we get a ON/Coal government.
_____________________
I’d advise against that comparison:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2026/01/historic-decline-in-net-international-migration.html
https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/05/have-we-entered-era-of-high-productivity-growth/
Donald Trump will give a televised address on Thursday about newly declassified intelligence on investigations into US elections and what the White House says are voting machine vulnerabilities.
The President is expected to use his speech to press his false claim again that he lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden due to massive fraud.
Propelled by Trump’s repeated claims that US elections are “rigged”, the administration has for over a year sought to increase federal oversight of election administration and reshape the way Americans vote – a plan that legal experts say would take power away from states in violation of the US Constitution.
With Republican control of Congress at stake in the November midterm elections, Democrats and some election security experts have expressed concerns that the Trump administration plans to interfere in those contests.
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-2020-election-fraud-claims-address-4644272
My thoughts (for what they are worth) on Lindsay Graham’s death.
Yes, I understand there was a family history of aortic dissection
However, he was pro-Ukraine (a personal friend of Zelensky), and anti-Iran (a personal friend of Netanyahu): both of which could be construed as “anti-Russian”.
He was also a powerful Senator who famously commanded Trump’s ear. His death, his absence, could dampen Trump’s resolve to help Ukraine, and to oppose Iran… both of which could make Putin smile, bigly. Who organised the licence for Ukraine to make Patriot missiles? I bet Lindsay Graham had a lot to do with it. What did he have in mind to report on Meet The Press the next morning? We’ll never know.
I didn’t like the man. He was a turncoat and a cynic. He was also – via reports free of the threat of defamation actions – a closet queer cross-dresser who utterly condemned queer cross-dressers. He both condemned Trump, and sucked up to him. He criticised the January Sixers, but ignored the cops they beat up so mercilessly.
Nevertheless, his death should be profoundly and forensically investigated. It’s too perfect.
YouGov
July 7-14
ALP – 28 (-1)
ONP – 26 (-4)
LNP – 20 (+3)
GRN – 12 (-1)
CSA – 2 (NEW)
IND/OTH – 6 (-5) (IND -6, OTH-6)
ALP/LNP – 53/47
ALP/ONP – 56/44
I’m just glad that none of our leaders in Australia are reality TV stars and people aren’t just voting “for the memes” and are actually taking leadership of a country with the seriousness that it deserves.
Rossmcg:
Sounds like aspirational voters to me, which the Liberals under Howard captured well during their tenure. These people too will wax and wane, as Labor showed us last year when they waxed towards the party with sensible economic policies.
But what of the Liberal heartland voters in leafy inner city electorates that have always voted Liberal? These were the Liberal base and now they’ve gone, presumably never to return.
Other than thoroughly rejecting Hansonism and going after her hard, I don’t know how the Liberals get back to being a competitive option for government, but what they’re doing now sure isn’t it.
A political shape shifter whom JD Vance has tried to emulate with his multiple name changes and positions.
Ah – beaten to it by @Darcy!
I do find it odd that CSA is being polled nationally when odds are they’ll only target specific seats. But, good on YouGov for at least asking the question (I guess).
Negligible change in the preferred PM Albanese (45%) vs Taylor (34%). Enormous change in the Albanese (54%) vs Hanson (35%) contest though, an 11% net swing (Albanese +6, Hanson -5) toward the incumbent.
I’m guessing the 2% national vote should have the party retain the seats of Warringah and Wentworth.
The Labor Party has regained its position as the most popular party in the country while One Nation lost support after Pauline Hanson’s push for a “monoculture”.
The latest Sky News Pulse / YouGov poll, conducted from July 7-14, found Labor had returned to the top of the primary vote on 28 per cent, despite dropping one point.
While One Nation’s support dipped by four points to 26 per cent, it still has a comfortable lead over the Coalition on 20 per cent (up three points).
The Greens received 12 per cent of the vote while the new teal party, Community Strong Australia, recorded just 2 per cent of the vote in its first appearance in the poll.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pauline-hansons-monoculture-call-sees-one-nation-support-slide-as-labor-regains-poll-lead-in-sky-news-pulse/news-story/ff02004ef7e9634e18b54b227fba984b
I think in part why the Liberals are struggling to see One Nation as an existential is they can see the One Nation members are people like Malcolm Roberts and think we’re not going to loss to clowns like that. Most sitting Liberals would have probably meet their One Nation opponent from the last few elections and fail to see how on earth “that” is going to be their undoing.
So according to Paul Kelly, he is okay with Liberal party supremacy and a natural order but since they lost power and look absolutely hopeless, that is because due to “breakdown in the political system’s ability to command public trust and deliver governance.”
And Paul Kelly is supposed to be sane journalists/ commentators.
No wonder Australian journalists/ commentators increasingly looking bat shit crazy.
However, you are ready to believe the same journalists/ commentators views when it comes to foreign affairs.
For example, their views on China, Israel and India and their leaders.
So do we assume the Morgan poll was an aberration?
Other than Newspoll, ALP and Greens are stuck on 28% and 12% respectively in multiple polls. The vote change is between L-NP and ON and Libs are the beneficiaries.
I think it could be because Taylor attacked ON.
https://yapms.com/app/aus/house/2025001/blank?m=eo1jsrmcrwdwfaj
This is a new blank map that I’ll use for simulations/election predictions that have the 2 Community Strong Australia MPs already filled in.
That way I can override those 2 seats when it comes to teal independents.
Dingbat – Yes, it was out of kilter with the other polls. But that doesn’t make that poll “wrong”, just possibly “rogue”. Afterall, one in 20 polls will fall outside the 95% standard confidence interval.
Bushfire Bill @ #555 Tuesday, July 14th, 2026 – 9:04 pm
BB:
“Too perfect”? Nah. Acute aortic dissection is probably the least likely cause of death to be faked – or covertly induced. This was stochastic biological chance, not karma, malfeasance or woke transgender leftists.
McConnell, on the other hand, may be technically alive & recovering, but I doubt that he will never play the Senate again. I suspect that his down time without CPR was > 5 minutes.
Wombat,
Until they’ve dissected him, the “aortic dissection” diagnosis has to be regarded as provisional.
My niece was Gleeson’s associate about 2007 give or take a year
If some bunch of priests want mockery, they are certainly motivating me to add to the chorus. Speaking as a former inmate of a boarding school where many – over 10 from my days -‘teachers’ went to jail. This place hasn’t been a church for 100 years
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/14/divine-playhouse-lgbtq-events-cancelled-sydney-church
EDIT: it bookends a week where the notorious floggers and kiddy fiddlers in the Christian Brothers scheme to remove their assets from the victims grasp came to fruition
The most interesting detail in the YouGov poll is the fall in the female ALP vote, now fully 5% below blokes. This fall in the ALP female vote seems to be pretty entrenched, present for months now. I haven’t heard anyone provide a convincing explanation, although I’m pretty certain my wife’s theory is on the money, but it’s one of those things perhaps left unspoken.
https://yapms.com/app/aus/house/2025001/blank?m=huafp5b4w23238m
This is what the YouGov/Sky News Australia poll would look like if it was replicated at the 2028 election.
Rhwombat
If Mitch McConnell isn’t technically as dead as a doornail, I’ll eat my hat. If he isn’t capable of uttering a few words on camera after all this time, that amounts to the same. The newspaper(upsidedown) in his lap doesn’t cast a shadow on his pyjamas
Rhwombat
Thanks, I haven’t read any details on McConnell other than his vague statement. I wondered what was meant by his being”unconscious”. Do we have any medical details? Obviously if he has to be revived and wasn’t breathing for an extended period then his mental functioning must have been damaged.
McConnell has been reported before as suffering “micro strokes”. Could this have been more and worse of the same?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ariannajohnson/2023/07/27/mcconnells-abrupt-freeze-up-couldve-been-a-seizure-or-stroke-or-just-dehydration-experts-say/
Just to clarify…
I didn’t say that Lindsay Graham WAS murdered, just that he was famously anti-Putin, and may well have had a big say in the licensing of Ukraine to make Patriot missiles, and that his death should not be dismissed at first hand.
Has there been a formal autopsy? No. They are guessing about “aortic dissection”.
Patriot missiles aren’t just your random firecracker. They are famously capable of being one of the few counter weapons capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, as opposed to shooting down slow-moving drones (which Ukraine is already really good at, with a 90%-plus kill rate).
High-speed ballistic missiles are what’s doing the real damage against Ukrainian civilian targets today. Stopping them would blunt virtually all of Putin’s remaining bombardment and demoralisation strategies against Ukraine. Having them, or a license to make them to use against Putin’s missiles is a REALLY big deal for Ukraine. My guess is that Trump blurted out the announcement about Patriot missiles at the NATO Summit (as he is won’t to blurt) and Lindsay Graham seized the chance to go over to Ukraine to seal the deal, probably in return for a commitment from him (as a prominent Senator of long-standing and considerable influence) to support (or pretend to support) Trump’s precious “Save America” legislation. Graham may have been about to announce a Patriot missiles licensing deal on national TV – thus steam-rollering Trump into going through with his commitment – but died before he could get the chance.
Graham was NOT in poor health before his death. Everyone, except two witnesses, reported him as being in good health and spirits. We have Trump’s word, and the word of an unidentified female person that he was not feeling well *on the night*. Trump, for what his word is worth, can ALWAYS be relied upon to lie. It’s his modus vivendi. But who was the “mystery person” who called 911? We literally don’t know. It could have been a “trans” prostitute (whom, it is now emerging, Graham patronised with great gusto) putting on an hormonally induced female-sounding voice, while fleeing the scene, not wanting to “get involved”. “She” has certainly not been found. The paramedics had to break Graham’s door down to effect entry. Graham was completely alone when they arrived. No staff, no family, no friends, no-one at all present.
To NOT investigate his death would be a grave omission, in my opinion. He was too important a person, with too vital a mission – one that involved speaking at Presidential level with two of the most prominent world leaders, within hours of each other – for the cause of his death to be signed-off on as just “His time must have been up”.
The Wombatsays:
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 10:09 pm
The most interesting detail in the YouGov poll is the fall in the female ALP vote, now fully 5% below blokes. This fall in the ALP female vote seems to be pretty entrenched, present for months now. I haven’t heard anyone provide a convincing explanation, although I’m pretty certain my wife’s theory is on the money, but it’s one of those things perhaps left unspoken.
____________________
If you want an economic explanation, consider that the vast majorty of jobs created in Australia have been public sector or public sector adjacent. Similarly with wage growth. This means a bit more female than male, but still benefits a lot of men.
But Labor’s private sector industrial policies have largely benefited male dominated industries- public equity into critical minerals and emerging manufacturing, major industrial bailouts, even the accelerating renewables build down to home battery installation. All male dominated jobs. And apparently free tafe enrolments are reaching a million.
This leaves largely private sector female leaning industries as not a priority of industry policy – such as retail, food and accommodation, and some private admin roles (accountants etc).
But these latter industries are also ones absorbing the recent high migration period, especially international students working part time. Hence why polls showed One Nation picking up female voters strongly, as they represent the front line of the economic dislocation of excessive labour supply.
Anyway, that’s my theory at least. A chart dump for another evening.
Re Holdenhillbilly @ 8:53 PM.
And without immigration Australia would probably undergo demographic collapse within a couple of generations. And really, the old argument regarding populate or perish never really went away, especially now as the old order is breaking down.
But the merits or otherwise of immigration is probably not an argument that can be won by logic, statistics or projections…
Morgan is both weekly and a bit bouncy. Over the last 3 weeks it has had minus 4, minus 5 and plus 4 for One Nation (by memory, haven’t checked exact figures) so it’s actually showing a similar drop to other pollsters.
Steve777says:
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:21 pm
But the merits or otherwise of immigration is probably not an argument that can be won by logic, statistics or projections…
_____________________
Could you point me to the housing supply & demand statistics or projections in the PBO estimates?
https://www.pbo.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-07/PBO%202026-27%20Medium-Term%20Budget%20Outlook.pdf
So, Trump murders most of the Iranian leadership by pretending to negotiate with them, then bombing them when they assemble to discuss his offer, kills thousands of innocent Iranians as “collateral damage” to his “obliteration” campaign, causes the Iranians to retaliate by way of – as a direct response – blocking the Strait of Hormuz, THEN wants to charge a 20% premium on the value of goods shipped through the Strait to keep it open (which there is no way he can guarantee).
Why isn’t this an old style Mafia shakedown?
Bizzcan at 11.08pm.
“But Labor’s private sector industrial policies have largely benefited male dominated industries”
Due to a lack of blokes and some affirmative action, mining companies are increasingly employing females. For example, BHP Iron Ore has 35% female workforce and at their South Flank mine it is 40%.
Kirsdarke at 4.56 and 5.34 pm, Isle of Rocks at 5.20 pm and John in 6003 at 6.43 pm
“Nor does TOP have local or regional membership branches. In these respects, its internal structure more closely resembles right-libertarian ACT than a conventional centrist party.”
That is the key bit of the article by Richard Shaw of Massey Uni linked by John.
In other words, TOP is a media-driven show, appealing to those who would find W Peters well past it.
They have a lot of candidates but probably few serious prospects at electorate level, if any. Runners at:
https://www.opportunity.org.nz/team
As for Ms Quilae Wong’s chances in Mt Albert, they are probably minimal. The Labour incumbent should get a sophomore surge, as well as the general increase in the Labour vote vs National. TOP got about 3.4% in the electorate in 2023. It would be a huge shock for Ms Wong to even get close.
The main point is that National have not had even a minor poll lead outside Morgan for 5 months:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
Trump’s continuing war will hurt Luxon’s chances substantially, when he is already at historic lows.
Luxon was already the most unpopular first term NZ PM for yonks before Trump made his task harder:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/17-03-2025/luxons-epic-unpopularity-in-one-chart
An AI roadmap which doesn’t even mention our privacy rights over our data. Seriously. Things like this is why the major parties are on the nose with the electorate. You would expect an AI policy to cover our right to have our data deleted, and/or not used by AI – especially sensitive data like medical records. Instead, they’re treating it like the single biggest issue with AI doesn’t exist. And they wonder why we don’t want to vote for them.
New thread.
Bushfire Bill @ #570 Tuesday, July 14th, 2026 – 9:57 pm
Um. No. Aortic dissection is diagnosed by CT, not autopsy.
Re: Telstra outage, a quick look at (old) time servers.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Fair enough, but “if it ain’t fixed, don’t break it” applies too.
Telstra had a REALLY bad time last week
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1T9xQy-dsQo
It’s…yawn…another round of TACO time.
https://thenightly.com.au/world/middle-east/middle-east-latest-us-launches-strikes-as-trump-backflips-on-20-per-cent-hormuz-fee-as-strait-blockade-starts-c-22578587
Jaeger
I kid you not. I had people in my sphere seriously blaming former Premier Daniel Andrews for the Telstra outage last week.
My daughter, her partner and I were left speechless by their explanation as to why it was his fault.
The derangement syndrome is strong with some people.
It’s getting to the stage that the mango Mussolini needs to be shown the door………….he is diabolical
———-
Trump on his Thursday speech: “It’s really big news. It’s really big news. Our country has to shape up. What we’re gonna be talking about Thursday — it doesn’t get bigger, because without free and fair elections you don’t have a country.”
As I mentioned yesterday, vic teachers are in a pay dispute with the vic govt. Ben Carroll is the Education minister.
The union membership have voted to strike next week.
The word is that until this dispute is resolved, there will be no change in leadership as Ben Carroll is the heir apparent
This short excerpt defines the legacy of Lindsey Graham.
https://x.com/RickSanchezTV/status/2076737011763789950/video/1?s=61
I have posted before about receiving email from various Libs. They obviously have access to addresses. I also get stuff from Jackie Lambie and a few others as well.
Todays liberal email includes;
* The Liberal Party has been the most successful political movement in modern Australian history. (What’s modern? – the ALP has been around for much longer so if survival is success, they must be going OK as well)
* We must consider how to make the Liberal Party a fit-for-purpose political machine in the 21st century. (Maybe stop selecting 20th century troglodytes)
This link takes you to their discussion paper; https://commission.liberal.org.au/discussion-paper/3-ourmembers
On page 1 it says “Our question must be “What would Menzies do?” Hang on, aren’t they trying to move into the 21st century?
A google search for significant Menzies achievements doesn’t produce much but does include “increasing immigration” and improving higher education. That will go down like a lead balloon to the right wing loons.
I haven’t read it all but I did find that over half of their members are over 60 years old and males outnumber women 2:1.
The Liberal-National Coalition, under various names for both parties, have been in power for about two thirds of the time since 1920 when our two and a bit party system consolidated, so pretty successful, measured in terms of winning and staying in office.