The weekly Roy Morgan poll records One Nation tumbling another three-and-a-half points after their five-and-a-half point drop last week, reducing them to 22.5%. This still isn’t enough to cost them their lead over the Coalition, who are unchanged at 21.5%, while Labor is likewise steady at 28%. The difference is instead made up by a one-point gain for the Greens to 14% and a two-and-a-half point gain for independents and others to 14%. A Labor-versus-One Nation two-party measure based on respondent allocation has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 56-44. The lead over the Coalition is 55-45 based on respondent allocation, out from 53.5-46.5, and 54-46 based on 2025 election preference flows, out from 52.5-47.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1584.
Other news:
• A Western Australian state by-election looms in the seat of Secret Harbour after Paul Papalia, who had been in parliament since 2007 and in cabinet since Labor came to power in 2017, announced his resignation on Monday citing a family illness. Labor confirmed yesterday its candidate will be Georgia Tree, a former staffer to local federal MP Madeleine King and government relations employee at Woodside. With its low ethnic diversity and abundance of trades workers, the outer southern suburbs seat appears to be promising terrain for One Nation. Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports “multiple Labor sources” say recent internal polling from the seat has One Nation running neck-and-neck with Labor in the “mid-30s”, with the Liberal vote “hovering in the high teens”. Perhaps surprisingly, Liberal leader Basil Zempilas has vowed the party will field a candidate.
• The finalised boundaries were published this week for the federal redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory, with those for South Australia and Tasmania to follow over the coming weeks. This involves two seats that Labor won in 2025 by margins of around 20%, one over the Greens (Canberra, held by Alicia Payne) and one over the Liberals (Fenner, held by Andrew Leigh), and one the party came within 700 votes of losing to teal independent Jessie Price (Bean, held by David Smith). Bean both gains from and loses to Canberra: I calculate a 54.0-46.0 split in favour of Labor over Price out of the roughly 9500 formal votes being transferred from Bean to Canberra, and a near tie in the remainder. The extent to which the former helps Price, should she run again, depends on the unknown quantity of her latent support from the similarly sized area transferred from Canberra to Bean. What does favour her, albeit modestly, is the reversal of a plan from the originally proposed boundaries to transfer Norfolk Island from Bean to Canberra, whose votes I estimate as having broken 576-305 in Price’s favour in 2025.
• A DemosAU Tasmanian state poll for Pulse Tasmania has Liberal on 28%, Labor on 21%, the Greens on 14% and independents on 12%. The last such poll in November did not feature One Nation as a response option, and had Liberal on 35%, Labor on 23%, the Greens on 15% and independents on 17%. The result at the election in July last year was Liberal 39.9%, Labor 25.9%, Greens 14.4% and independents 15.3%, producing a seat result of Liberal 14, Labor 10, Greens five, independents 5 and Shooters Fishers and Farmers one. The poll credits Premier Jeremy Rockliff with a 41-32 lead over Labor’s Josh Willie, in from 43-32. Rockliff is rated positively by 35%, neutrally by 27% and negatively by 38%; Willie positively by 23%, neutrally by 48% and negatively by 29%. The poll was conducted June 21 to July 6 from a sample of 999.
Hey William. You appear to have accidentally left ON (21%) out of your recap of the results for the Tassie poll.
Sorry to hear of the death of Bonnie Tyler. She had a wonderfully rasping way of delivering her songs: sort of a Welsh, female Rod Stewart. For most of her career, she didnt really get the material she deserved.
But Total Eclipse of the Heart was a pop masterpiece of its day. It had it all. Written by the master of musical melodrama Jim Steinman (I Would Do Anything For Love, etc), driven along hard by the magnificent Roy Bittan (piano) and Max Weinberg (drums) from Springsteen’s E-street Band and with a totally bizarre video (inspired by the old sci-fi flick Village of the Damned) directed by Australia’s own Russel Mulcahy.
And on top of all that, Bonnie’s gravelly voice sounding full of pain.
They don’t make pop songs like they used to. Tay-Tay couldn’t get within a bull’s roar of Bonnie, Steinman and co.
Vale.
My seat break down, of the 35 seats in Tasmania
Liberal 12
Labor 8
ON 8
Greens 5
Ind 3
Meher Baba.
Yes, she had just the right voice for that song. This is a person who spent her life making other people happy, with her talent. Her’s is a worthwhile.life.
Re-reading William’s opening post
It has never struck me before that one of the perks of being the member for Bean would be an excuse to visit Norfolk Island several times a year. Must be nice.
Those numbers add up to 36.
Tassie with a chunk of One Nation MP’s would probably end up with a similar government as now given Labor doesn’t accept the reality that they can’t win in their own right and the Liberals, especially if Bridget Archer takes over, are better placed working with the Greens and Independents on most issues
Wouldn’t be ideal though
I remember talking to Labor folk at a union party years back, good Labor left people who were about to have a conference. They were confident of winning on a few things including same sex marriage, not selling uranium to India and a couple of others. They lost them all
While selling uranium for use as clean energy makes sense, selling it to a country that hasn’t signed the nuclear proliferation treaty and is nuclear armed not so much. Despite any guarantees we’re being given
The Norfolkers love being represented by someone who lives 2,000km away.
It is laughable that people are still talking about the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as if it were a real thing.
It is laughable that some political parties still rely on the UN to impose world peace in general and peace for australia in particular.
… laughable if it were not so very stupid and so very dangerous…
…kiddy stuff in a world full of very dangerous adults
The world order that sheltered that Treaty disappeared with Xi, Putin and Trump.
Two of that three are engaged in full time war.
The third has been sinking and ramming ships of other countries, issues constant threats of invasion and casually does a fuck-you by firing a nuclear-capable missile across half a dozen countries.
Not one of them recognizes international law as in any way constraining them.
One Notion not a registered party in Tas!
This article illustrates why reform is so difficult. The Gas Reservation Scheme will benefit the BCA’s members, yet the BCA is adopting the same vacuous talking points as the gas producers. Meanwhile, the Qld govt continue to act like arseholes and the AFR eggs it all on:
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/show-us-gas-reservation-modelling-bca-20260709-p60e0r or https://archive.is/0kUYX
Incidentally, the govt appears to be implementing all of the other fundamental reforms that were recommended in the Gas Market Review, but no one has bothered to report that.
Congrats to the Dockers on the win last night, it was a crazy game. We held them for 3/4 but they were too classy in the end
Things are looking good for the Swans though, great to have Papley back, Charlie kicking goals and Errol building up fitness.
A decent run home sets us up beautifully for the finals although I doubt many would begrudge the Dockers winning a flag if we don’t get it done
David Shoebridge good on India calling out their human rights record although to be fair, they would be in their rights to call out ours as well
Sad to see Iran and the middle east is flaring up again. Lucky Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons imo although the war is based on a lie
RIP Bonnie Tyler
Time for work, enjoy your day
Edit. A shame Morocco lost, France too good
Oh yeah, 5am post.
Liberal 12 – 2 in all seats, 3 in Bass and Braddon
Labor 8, 1 in all seats 2 in Lyons, Franklin and Clark
ON 6, 1 in 4 seats (not Clark), 2 in Lyons, Bass and Braddon,
Greens 5 – 1 in all seats
Ind 4 – who knows which ones, probably 1 in Clark, Franklin, Bass and Braddon
The other geographical anomaly is that Jervis Bay remains in the ACT electorate of Fenner. Andrew Leigh must enjoy the occasional constituent visit there to inspect the impossibly white sand beaches – and contemplate whether this nuclear site will ever be completed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jervis_Bay_Nuclear_Power_Plant
But do have many branches created in the past 12 months.
“Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is not currently a registered political party for Tasmanian state elections. However, the party lodged its official registration application with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission and is actively working to finalize its status”
https://www.onenation.org.au/tasmania-launch-success
I was reflecting this morning on what an absolute catastrophe the Dean Winter leadership was for tas Labor. The failure to make the no confidence vote hit home, a collapse of the PV(they’ve lost a third of their PV from 12 months ago), a missed opportunity to take minority government with the Greens, all the anti environment stances which have cost seats to independents, now being squeezed by ON.
sprocket at 8.16 am
As you know there’s a lot of PFAS pollution around Jervis Bay needing attention from a well researched MP.
It was Billy McMahon’s one great contribution to Australian history that he stopped the prospect of a nuclear power plant at Jervis Bay, at the time when Australia had ratified the NPT, albeit with some delay.
Norfolk Island has a population of about 2,200, so maybe about 1,500 voters, way too small to justify its own MP, which would be about 100,000 (70,000 voters). Including them in an Australian constituency is really the only way to give them representation.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Spain immigration scheme sees 1.2 million apply for legal status: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/spain-immigration-scheme-sees-1-2-million-apply-for-legal-status
Russia has found way to jam Starlink and take down Ukraine’s drones: https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/08/russia-has-found-way-to-jam-starlink-and-take-down-ukraines-drones/
Putin likely to escalate Ukraine war, despite Trump peace push: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-likely-escalate-ukraine-war-despite-trump-peace-push-sources-say-2026-07-09/
Russian drone kills last resident of border village in Kharkiv Oblast: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043232/
Count Binface rules out pact with Monster Raving Loony Party: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/07/09/count-binface-rules-out-pact-monster-raving-loony-party/
Rogan: Trump ‘might’ve f‑‑‑ed it up’ with Iran war: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5961073-joe-rogan-trump-iran-war/
Ted Cruz warns Talarico has ‘real chance’ to flip Texas’ U.S. Senate seat: https://www.chron.com/politics/article/ted-cruz-james-talarico-senate-race-22339154.php
Trump Suffers Third E. Jean Carroll Loss in 24 Hours: https://newrepublic.com/post/212895/donald-trump-third-e-jean-carroll-loss-24-hours
Navy will remove sailors with medical shaving conditions after 1 year of failed treatment: https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2026-07-08/navy-guidance-shaving-waivers-22212393.html
U.S. Navy Commander Declared Dead as Trump Reignites Iran War: https://newrepublic.com/post/212862/us-navy-commander-declared-dead-trump-reignites-iran-war
Trump says he’ll ask Supreme Court to rehear birthright citizenship case: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5960418-donald-trump-supreme-court-birthright-citizenship/
McConnell Staffer’s Admission Deepens Health Mystery: https://www.thedailybeast.com/mitch-mcconnell-staffers-admission-deepens-health-mystery/
Federal Investigators Say Certain DOGE Records Were Deleted: https://www.wired.com/story/federal-investigators-say-certain-doge-records-were-deleted/
Suspect in Charlie Kirk killing said ‘he wishes he hadn’t done it’, roommate testifies: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/09/erika-charlie-kirk-transparency-judge
Former Olympian pleads not guilty in Reflecting Pool damage case: https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/former-olympian-pleads-guilty-reflecting-pool-damage-case-134616521
Mexico to file criminal complaints in US over deaths of Mexicans in immigration enforcement: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-file-criminal-complaints-us-over-deaths-immigration-custody-2026-07-09/
US troop presence in Europe depends on Greenland deal and Iran, Trump says: https://tvpworld.com/94250304/us-troops-in-europe-depends-on-greenland-deal-trump-says
Leaked Documents Reveal Possible Secret Russia-China Military Plan to Disable Starlink: https://united24media.com/world/leaked-documents-reveal-possible-secret-russia-china-military-plan-to-disable-starlink-20627
Hundreds march in Houston demanding justice after ICE shoots, kills Lorenzo Salgado Araujo: https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2026/07/09/hundreds-of-protestors-march-canal-st-following-deadly-ice-shooting-of-lorenzo-salgado-araujo/
Former top BHP economist urges tougher government policies to push miners to decarbonise
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jul/10/former-bhp-economist-carbon-price-emissions
“A former chief economist at mining company BHP says stronger climate policy by governments is needed to “move the needle” and incentivise tough decarbonisation decisions at major resource companies.
Internal documents, leaked to Guardian Australia and the ABC earlier this year, showed BHP had delayed vast renewables projects in the Pilbara, scrapped a project that would have delivered significant cuts to global emissions, and war-gamed options to push the electrification of its polluting diesel truck and train fleets into the next two decades.
Experts and analysts have previously said the slowdown in BHP’s decarbonisation progress put Australia’s broader climate targets at risk and exposed significant flaws in a key climate policy, the safeguard mechanism.”
BW
The NPT still has its uses.
I remember some years ago that Mark Regev said one of Israel’s many attacks on Iran was justified because Iran was building nuclear weapons despite being a signatory of the NPT. Israel was defending the integrity of the treaty (despite not being a signatory)
sprocket_
Jervis Bay is destined to become the east coast port for US nuclear submarines.
BW – I reckon if there’s one nation which can leave the NPT, develop a nuclear arsenal, and fully expect not to be treated as a pariah for doing so, it is Ukraine. Look what price they paid for giving away its nuclear arsenal to join the NPT. Any country which had a problem with Ukraine doing that would be cruel in the extreme.
Telstra was repeatedly warned by academics and government agencies it was vulnerable to the kind of issue that caused this week’s national outage.
The outage was blamed on a software bug that caused its clocks to go out of sync, a concern that has been repeatedly raised in recent years.
An expert says industries that depend on telecommunications networks need to understand how much of their own resilience relies on them staying online.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-10/telstra-warned-about-vulnerability-before-national-outage/106896906
A huge boost for Jacinta Allen at the packed MCG last night – footy?
Nah. Watch this to see what OneNation is up against…
https://youtu.be/_k1yyUN5HTA?si=GOj-WDw6hB6jgyVz
Mostly Interested at 8.21 am
There would be a possible Honours thesis on the topic of why does a Labor caucus often choose poorly when selecting their next leader.
Winter had little experience when promoted as the saviour. Likewise with Latham. Remember that the caucus chose Shorten the chronic podium finisher over Albo, who had more parliamentary experience.
Re NZ, the National Party under Luxon (also inexperienced in terms of parliamentary work) has taken the populist path outlined by Don Brash in 2004, the John Stone of NZ, who went close in the 2005 election.
If you want to understand what Luxon has rejected there is a good old book titled Becoming Bicultural by James Ritchie (1992), a long time advisor to the Tainui tribe in the Waikato area.
A copy is available on eBay in SA.
Luxon is well to the right of the late Jim Bolger, PM in the mid-1990s.
James Ritchie is what can be termed an anti-populist academic. With his wife Jane he once wrote a book on violence in NZ, arguing seriously that rugby should be transcended because it is merely legitimated violence.
People might laugh about it, but it’s now a very serious proposition from a health perspective. The research on contact sports and their causation of early onset dementia is sobering.
Re Timmy at 7:49 pm (old thread)
I would say that it’s because Labor now presents the only option for sensible, non-ideological government at the State and Federal level. A Government that will actually get on with the job rather than spending its time and energy culture-warring and demonising and attacking opponents. A Government that does its best to work for everyone. It’s the one party that works for people who derive their income and wealth from salary and wages.