The weekly Roy Morgan poll records One Nation tumbling another three-and-a-half points after their five-and-a-half point drop last week, reducing them to 22.5%. This still isn’t enough to cost them their lead over the Coalition, who are unchanged at 21.5%, while Labor is likewise steady at 28%. The difference is instead made up by a one-point gain for the Greens to 14% and a two-and-a-half point gain for independents and others to 14%. A Labor-versus-One Nation two-party measure based on respondent allocation has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 56-44. The lead over the Coalition is 55-45 based on respondent allocation, out from 53.5-46.5, and 54-46 based on 2025 election preference flows, out from 52.5-47.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1584.
Other news:
• A Western Australian state by-election looms in the seat of Secret Harbour after Paul Papalia, who had been in parliament since 2007 and in cabinet since Labor came to power in 2017, announced his resignation on Monday citing a family illness. Labor confirmed yesterday its candidate will be Georgia Tree, a former staffer to local federal MP Madeleine King and government relations employee at Woodside. With its low ethnic diversity and abundance of trades workers, the outer southern suburbs seat appears to be promising terrain for One Nation. Tom Rabe of the Financial Review reports “multiple Labor sources” say recent internal polling from the seat has One Nation running neck-and-neck with Labor in the “mid-30s”, with the Liberal vote “hovering in the high teens”. Perhaps surprisingly, Liberal leader Basil Zempilas has vowed the party will field a candidate.
• The finalised boundaries were published this week for the federal redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory, with those for South Australia and Tasmania to follow over the coming weeks. This involves two seats that Labor won in 2025 by margins of around 20%, one over the Greens (Canberra, held by Alicia Payne) and one over the Liberals (Fenner, held by Andrew Leigh), and one the party came within 700 votes of losing to teal independent Jessie Price (Bean, held by David Smith). Bean both gains from and loses to Canberra: I calculate a 54.0-46.0 split in favour of Labor over Price out of the roughly 9500 formal votes being transferred from Bean to Canberra, and a near tie in the remainder. The extent to which the former helps Price, should she run again, depends on the unknown quantity of her latent support from the similarly sized area transferred from Canberra to Bean. What does favour her, albeit modestly, is the reversal of a plan from the originally proposed boundaries to transfer Norfolk Island from Bean to Canberra, whose votes I estimate as having broken 576-305 in Price’s favour in 2025.
• A DemosAU Tasmanian state poll for Pulse Tasmania has Liberal on 28%, One Nation on 21%, Labor on 21%, the Greens on 14% and independents on 12%. The last such poll in November did not feature One Nation as a response option, and had Liberal on 35%, Labor on 23%, the Greens on 15% and independents on 17%. The result at the election in July last year was Liberal 39.9%, Labor 25.9%, Greens 14.4% and independents 15.3%, producing a seat result of Liberal 14, Labor 10, Greens five, independents 5 and Shooters Fishers and Farmers one. The poll credits Premier Jeremy Rockliff with a 41-32 lead over Labor’s Josh Willie, in from 43-32. Rockliff is rated positively by 35%, neutrally by 27% and negatively by 38%; Willie positively by 23%, neutrally by 48% and negatively by 29%. The poll was conducted June 21 to July 6 from a sample of 999.
HBG
As The Revisionist @ 7:41 PM, you are a parody of yourself.
Lindsay Graham, dead from a heart attack at age 71, was a complicated character.
– cheer leader for Netanyahu’s Gaza genocide
– lead supporter for Ukraine against the genocidal Russian invasion
– voted against marriage equality for LGBTQ
– died a never married bachelor, who MAGA influencer Laura Loomer testified in court that he was gay
Politically, adding his Senate vacancy to that of the absent Mitch McConnell reduces the Republican numbers to 51. And this may limit the Trump appointments to top positions.
“As The Revisionist @ 7:41 PM, you are a parody of yourself.”
I dont know, there was plenty of crowing that the … CSA would eat the Greens.
Yet here we are; and unlike certain authoritarian bents around here, the Senate remains strong.
If I can’t get to 76 by 8:00 ACST then I’ll just show the most recent result that I got.
Update: 66-75 seats for Labor now.
Thomas Brian Mutter
I don’t see Labor going below 80 seats ATM, that might change if interest rates keep rising and inflation stays high.
Kevin Bonham: ResolvePM ALP 28 L-NP 23 (+3) ON 26 (-3) Grn 12 IND 6 (-1) others 5
No 2PP provided. My estimates:
ALP 51.5 (-0.9) vs L-NP
ALP 51.6 (+0.7) vs ON
Dr fumbles yeah but the problem is the most she speaks the more people won’t like her she’s gonna have the same problem Peter had
Sprocket- Lindsey Graham also had to raise his younger sister after his parents died. Messed up his Air Force career.
The margin of error on the Resolve poll is 2%, so the movements in the One Nation and Liberal votes are significant.
I get Labor 2PP of about 28+0+6.5+10.2+7.7 = 52.4. I’d round that to 52%.
This assumes that 85% of Green preferences, 25% of One Nation and 70% of “other”, which now excludes One Nation, go to Labor.
Archaeo – Histories
@archeohistories
One of the most important and frequently misunderstood aspects of the fall of the Western Roman Empire is that it was not, for most people who lived through it, a recognizable event in the way that modern historical narratives suggest.
The date 476 AD — September 4, the day Romulus Augustulus handed over his crown to Odoacer — was not recorded at the time as the end of an empire. Most Romans living in Italy, Gaul, Spain, or North Africa in late 476 AD continued their daily lives without experiencing any dramatic visible change in governance, law, or material conditions. The same Roman law codes remained in use. The same roads carried the same traffic. The same administrative structures, now simply commanded by Germanic leaders rather than Roman emperors, collected the same taxes and adjudicated the same disputes.
The Roman Senate in Rome continued to function for decades after 476 AD. The Roman consul — the traditional highest civilian magistracy of Rome, dating back to the early Republic — continued to be appointed annually until 534 AD, nearly sixty years after the date conventionally marked as Rome’s fall. Roman administrative titles, Roman legal terminology, and Roman cultural institutions persisted in various forms across the former Western Empire for generations.
What actually ended in 476 AD was the specific political institution of a Roman emperor recognized as ruling in the West — a role that had been increasingly nominal, contested, and militarily dependent for decades before Odoacer decided to stop bothering to maintain the fiction of a civilian emperor above him.
The concept of 476 AD as the fall of Rome was largely established by later historians — most significantly the 18th century historian Edward Gibbon in his monumental “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” — who identified this specific date as a convenient and meaningful watershed in a process of change that had been unfolding across several centuries and would continue to unfold for several centuries more.
What most Romans experienced in 476 AD was not a fall but a continuation — a continuation that would gradually, over generations, become something different enough from what had come before that historians looking back would reach for the word “ended.”
#archaeohistories
BS Fairman
Lindsay Graham’s defence of alleged drunken groper Brett Kavanaugh for a seat on the Supreme Court was but one low light of his subsequent career..
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/28/politics/lindsey-graham-donald-trump-brett-kavanaugh
Also he supported Iran war vehemently.
He was despicable because sucked upto Trump and his agenda to win elections. No sympathy for him.
As I said earlier Graham is a despicable person. As far as I know he never voted against Trump agenda.
Another Lindsay Graham low light was doing some Trump henchman duty by phoning Georgia election officials while the votes were being counted in 2020 – as the Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Basically, telling them to void mail in ballots for Biden.
He was indicted by the ill fated Fani Willis grand jury, but he was never charged.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/georgia-jury-recommended-charges-against-senator-lindsey-graham-in-trump-election-case-20230909-p5e3ax.html
And you think Weekend at Mitch’s hasn’t spawned some conspiracy theories.
The Lindsay Graham ones are just beginning….
I’m not at all a fan of Kavanaugh, but none of the allegations against him were exactly open and shut cases, at least as I recall them.
This is the first I have heard of VVPs. I had come across the concept of distributed power networks before, but hadnt really given it any thought.
Something to fear or something to embrace? Are you effectively giving away your solar and battery storage for the greater good but putting yourself individually at a disadvantage?
Ven
And when I teach Year 7 Roman History, that’s how we end it – that people at the time would have been bewildered if you told them the Roman Empire had fallen.
It’s like the Dark Ages – a Thing that affected Britain more than most other countries of that era, but of course, our ‘history’ is that of Britain rather than Europe.
Again, someone in Constantinople would have been incredulous if you’d told them they were living in the Dark Ages…
Are we going to see a Newspoll tonight?
Italian authorities dismantled a Russian espionage network in Rome that aimed to gather information on Western air defense systems provided to Ukraine, Defense News reported.
Italian police surveilled a suspected officer of the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) during interactions with an informant. The investigation recorded requests for data regarding the European Samp-T system, which has been transferred to Kyiv, and the Michelangelo Dome, an air defense system developed by the Italian company Leonardo that is scheduled for testing in Ukraine in November.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80109
Perhaps Loony Loomer can explain why Russia chose to bump off Graham instead of Zelenskyy.
meher baba @ #665 Sunday, July 12th, 2026 – 8:52 pm
Except that the completely believable, distinguished lady who testified that he raped her, provided a perfect drawing of the layout of the house and room in which the ‘alleged’ rape took place. And several other college contemporaries of his described his drunken antics in repellent, identical detail.
MI @ 8:58
VPPs don’t have a great reputation – probably because some people didn’t understand what they were signing up for, were subsequently unhappy and complained loudly. Negative customer experiences generally get more attention than positive ones.
The data shows they save people money:
https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/inquiry-national-electricity-market-report-june-2026.pdf
However, you have to shop around to find a plan that suits your needs and read the fine print carefully, so you know what you are signing up for.
https://yapms.com/app/aus/house/2025001/blank?m=vwwwdzrkmsp51m3
This is the map that I got when I averaged out the 2 polls of July together.
Dark ages is a misnomer, much of the recorded history was lost when libraries were burnt and only the Western Roman Empire fell in the 5th century.
Net Zero should be dropped, with a focus on fossil fuels over renewables in the future… 39% agree …. 27% disagree & 33% are too stupid to know what day it is. Resolve pollsters have a special data base to draw on for this rubbish.
Why does the chart specify “South East Queensland” instead of just Queensland in general?
Thomas Brian Mutter @ #678 Sunday, July 12th, 2026 – 9:33 pm
Because they live in the stone age north of Gympie
SL @ #672 Sunday, July 12th, 2026 – 9:12 pm
The entire scenario has now changed with the ‘three hours for free’ scenario.
Globird, for an example, allow you to download 50 kWh during that the 3 hour 11 am to 2 pm window, which means that if you inverter can cope, you can get 50kWh into your battery for use during the rest of the 24 hours. You will still have to pay connection fees ($1.95 per day) but other wise free power if you don’t use that much! In my case I have a 32 kWh battery and a SigEnergy inverter which can handle 12 kW quite nicely so I’m sitting pretty with prospective power bills of about $60 per month.
Prior to this development I have been on the Amber VPP setup, which has produced power bills between -$74 and +$134 per month. Average about $40. I am still evaluating. One thing, beware of evil Ausgrid ‘demand charges’.
meher baba says:
Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 8:52 pm
I’m not at all a fan of Kavanaugh, but none of the allegations against him were exactly open and shut cases, at least as I recall them.
___________
Exactly open and shut means convicted. Is that the minimum threshold to be met to be a US Supreme Court judge? That they were able to avoid jail? What a country 🙂
yabba, Tasmania does not have 3 free hours, but I think there is something similar that you can book several free 1 hour slots. I had not thought to charge my battery during that, thanks for the tip.
6 out of 7 polls now show Labor retaking the lead. It turns out that the National Press Club address, and the continued language of “monoculturalism” are really damaging now for One Nation.
I’m not sure it’s that simple, Thomas. I’ll point out that on the Resolve polling, support for “monoculture” (whatever that means), is 7 points higher than the One Nation primary, 33% vs 26%. However, I’m sure a lot of culturally conservative Australians born overseas will have switched their vote from One Nation to the Coalition in the last few weeks.
I thought the most interesting part of the Resolve polling was actually the very soft support for net zero policy.
I too have the same arrangement, Yabba and find it quite economical (Amber VPP + battery and inverter setup)
Lindsay Graham’s invention of the “convention” that a Supreme Court Justice could not be appointed in the final year of a Presidential term did it for me.
4 years later, in 2020, he voted to appoint Amy Coney Barrett: the final year of Trump’s first term. When challenged for his blatant hypocrisy he gave Democrats the finger… for being foolish enough to trust him.
Re the Dark Ages, one view that gels with those expressed upthread by Landlord and Zoomster:
https://youtube.com/shorts/Mt1VUyqukLU?si=3FSqQg7mcTTSx5mN
(Short ~ 2 mins).
Re Bushfire Bill @11:06
Standard operating procedure for the Right. They do whatever it takes. Observe conventions, make up new ones or break them, whichever best serves the exigencies of the day. After all, they work for the real elites, the 0.1%, those who own and control big corporations, while decrying their more vocal opponents as “elites”.
Same goes in Australia for our three Right-wing populist parties. Our local populists have the added advantage that their friends control the biggest megaphones.
B.S. Fairman at 7.21 pm, Sceptic at 9.31 pm and The Wombat at 10.31 pm
As B.S.F. points out, those questions are not about policy at all. If anything they are about rather vague rhetoric.
The energy transition away from a near total reliance on fossil fuels is occurring, belatedly and with limited planning. The rhetoric in this case is lagging behind the economic realities.
The policy debate against renewables occurred during the 2025 election. The Tories lost miserably, as the smart one, S. Birmingham, expected.
The Teal wall will prevent the Tories from delaying the transition further towards much greater reliance upon renewables. Better late than never.
If Resolve and other pollsters were interested in testing presumptions, they would ask mutually inconsistent propositions about the same issues.
Then the extent of confusion in the electorate would be demonstrated.
As the old wrestler D. Rumsfeld once said, the politician’s task is not to follow polls, especially when vague, but rather to help change perceptions.
Labor too strong
haters cope and seethe
Thanks for reading my winter 2026 Australian politics bulletin.
From who?
Most commenters here on the Unfortunate Acronym Party have had extremely low expectations for it.
Unfortunate Acronym Party (UAP). Lol
New thread.