With nearly every pollster in the game having pitched in last week, a quiet period looms. The weekly Roy Morgan should be along later today as always, and DemosAU is about due for one of its big-sample MRP projections. On the broader electoral front, there is the following to report:
• The Weekend Australian had the quarterly Newspoll detailed breakdowns from its four polls conducted in April, May and June. The state results show movement towards One Nation and away from Labor clearly evident in Victoria and South Australia, less evident in New South Wales, and not at all evident in Queensland and Western Australia, with Labor gaining three points in the former case. Breakdowns by education are distinctive in that One Nation is up six among those with technical qualifications, but effectively unchanged for everyone else. Voting intention is barely changed among 18-to-34s, whereas One Nation are up significantly among the older cohorts. Presumably inspired by the budget tax measures, the breakdowns now include housing tenure, as commonly featured by other pollsters. To commemorate the occasion, I have added tabs for these results to the BludgerTrack poll data features (keep clicking the “more” tab until you see them).
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published an interim report from its routine inquiry into the last election, which notably focuses on aggressive behaviour at polling booths. The majority report cites data on public complaints received by the AEC, and recommended that “election participants” be required to register and observe a code of conduct. The AEC, whose bailiwick currently ends six metres from the entrance, would enforce this code within a “campaign zone” around the polling place, in which signage limits would also apply. The report argued that much of the offending behaviour “seemed to involve third parties”, and while it didn’t name names, committee chair Jerome Laxale told parliament while tabling the report of “an assault by third parties identified in submissions like the Plymouth Brethren and Advance”.
• Certainly the Plymouth Brethren angle had been divined by the committee’s Coalition members, who headlined their dissenting report “less inquiry, more hyperpartisan witch hunt” – the latter having been directed against “Australians based on their religious faith”. While acknowledging aggressive behaviour was an issue, their own volunteers having been “targets for intimidation by unions and other third party organisations on polling booths for many elections”, the Coalition members forcefully rejected the recommendations as burdensome, open to abuse and possibly unconstitutional. Also in the Coalition report was a call for the early voting period, already truncated from three weeks to two before the 2022 election, to be reduced to one week, and for the AEC to be “more strident on ensuring that people accessing pre-poll are doing so for one of the reasons prescribed in the Act”.
• The official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to at the next election, which is calculated a year into each parliamentary term, will be made later this month. Antony Green has done their work for them based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics population data, and concludes there will be no change from the status quo, Queensland having recorded not quite enough growth to get it over the line for a thirty-first seat. Queensland will nonetheless get a redistribution under the seven-year rule, which is now overdue after being twice delayed: first because of the election, and then because there was no point commencing the process until it was clear how many seats the state would have. Proposed boundaries were published in March for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, final boundaries for which are expected later this month.
• Wendy Askew has brought forward the retirement she recently announced for the end of her term in mid-2028, now to take effect in a “few weeks”. This means two vacancies are now available for Tasmanian Liberal Senate seats, together with that created by Jonathan Duniam’s surprise retirement announcement last month.
Henderson is fulfilling her role: win some, lose some, and everything in between. Personally, I think she does a damn fine job, though if Segal is looking for a weak point, that’s where she should go.
There’s an add for the proposed secession of WA that pops up on twitter sometimes.
They have a manifesto of a few hundred pages.
Re SL @8:01.
People who have never in their lives expressed the slightest concern about the environment other than as a resource to be mined, logged, cleared for partures or developed will be outraged.
Kirsdarke
Democrats are experts in snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Delete Henderson & insert the other Sarah. I was warned this would happen.
I particularly appreciated the end of the interview, where she cut off his answer by smarmily thanking him for being on her show. Instead of the usual “Thanks for having me”, or some other nice but phony media cliché, his reply was… nothing… an eloquent silence.
With Dallas McInerney out Taylor has lost several votes in the party room. Expect a challenge soon.
The Sarah Ferguson 7.30 interview with the Iranian Professor will/should be studied in journalist studies about how not to conduct an interview.
What goes wrong when the interviewer tries to impress with assertions and pursuing responses based on their opinions rather than seeking out information and perspectives from the interviewee.
Timmysays:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 7:49 pm
What exactly happened in Perth, that turned it from the most reliably conservative-voting city into a Labor one? Did a zillion immigrants suddenly take up Australian citizenships and overturn the vote?
And I thought Perth was meant to be a haven for white Afrikaners forced out of their own country….. the GENUINE refugees.
___________________
Because unlike the east coast, the WA economy has absolutely no trouble simultaneously building and running the most productive mining sector in the world and the most ambitious and effective public infrastructure build in the nation. And the WA government absolutely makes song about trying to diversify and value add in resources.
Because while the idea of building a rail line to the airport is so traumatic for Victorians they are about to vote in a One Nation government, WA just… got on with it and built one
Because WA’s multicultural conflict is when your Arab, Asian, and wog mates cant decide who’s boat to take fishing on the weekend.
Its fucking jobs and growth mate. The east coast whingers don’t get it.
.
Marvel stadium (Docklands stadium), Melbourne is full with about 30000 Indian diaspora, who attended Modi public rally.
Yeah, I can’t imagine what events might have happened in recent years to make the Liberals so unpopular in WA. Must be all the immigrants.
Strikes me as passing strange that she changed her name to Bonnie Tyler.
I can’t see much difference, theatrically speaking, from Gaynor Hopkins (her real name) to Bonnie Tyler.
Total Eclipse of The Heart is a masterpiece it must be said. Another Jim Steinman classic.
Vensays:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 8:51 pm
Marvel stadium (Docklands stadium), Melbourne is full with about 30000 Indian diaspora, who attended Modi public rally.
_______________________
It holds at least 50. So maybe 60% full.
Still a lot of people though.
Was a bit unusual when Bonnie Tyler sang TEOTH with the schoolboy on Countdown
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ueOkwDh36tk&ra=m
Fwiw, there is this:
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-india-joint-statement-energy-security
I was having a reread of the live thread for the 2025 election the other day, cause I’m the kind of weirdo who does that sort of thing. And, boy, it sure is interesting to compare the sort of things “Timmy” was writing there to his posts now.
There’s also this:
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/t-ayres/media/advancing-education-science-and-technology-ties-india
Speaking of WA, Labor have their candidate for the Secret Harbour by-election:
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-labor-reveals-candidate-for-secret-harbour-byelection-after-minister-steps-down-20260709-p60dzz.html
Georgia Tree, who’s almost a local (the suburb of Warnbro got moved out of the seat last redistribution, hence the name change). Has worked for Madeleine King (federal MP for Brand and resources minister) and also for Woodside as a government relations staffer. Soon she’ll be working for the government as a Woodside relations staffer – the line between the state government and the resource industry gets pretty blurry sometimes. Could be worse, could be Alcoa…
The two top AFL teams have managed to kick 4 goals 20 behinds up to half time.
Count Binface is only relevant because of the British institution of the Declaration of the Poll, which dates back to the age of hustings, open ballots and rotten burroughs. The picture of the future PM standing between a candidate with a bin on his head and a candidate in a fox suit summed up many people’s view of the British character.
I think we should limit postals to those that arrive before the vote so that we can have a declaration at about 3 am on Sunday morning – this will ensure that candidates like Sir Bogan Wheelie-Bin will appear.
Boerwar
Yeah. But one of them is Fremantle. A mystery team at times to long suffering supporters
Like me
BoP
Might as well change Western Australia to Woodside Australia
To be fair while the airport link was finished under and pulled into Metronet, it was actually commissioned by the libs who are usually alergic to public, well public anything but public transport in this case.
It was also a little over done. A metronet engineer told me to go and have a look at the finish of the airport line stations because never again in WA will a train station have such a nice finish.
Last time I went to Sydney and last time to Europe took metronet from home to the airport easy stress free, cheaper than chips; use it whenever I can. (Swap trains from the Midland or Ellenbrook lines at Meltham, not Bayswater, so you can just take you luggage across the island platform.)
She asked him a question about sequestered Iranian finances, to which he replied “Not sequestered… stolen”. After several attempts to bypass his objections, Ferguson said, in her best “school marm” voice, “We’re not going to argue about that” insisting he answer the question, on her original terms. At which point he again denied the premise of her question at which point she told him he’d had a good go, but that was enough for her. She then ended the interview, thanking him and receiving silence in reply.
Meanwhile, Trump has just now declared all-out war against Iran, bombing bridges, ports, and many other infrastructure features.
The quote from the White House is:
If you can put up with Ben Meiselas yet again opening a clip with “All Hell is breaking loose as…”, the rest of the clip covers the escalating situation pretty well.
https://youtu.be/qt6MgBX3600?si=lZNzUWgsxt2SRyVU
WWP: If you want to see a really over-done train station, visit the new ones up past Butler. They’re all in the middle of nowhere (so quiet it’s spooky after dark), but enormous. Yanchep has 16 bus platforms, which is ever slightly over-engineered considering there’s only four routes that run out of there – probably less than 100 total services on a weekday. The new underground busport in the middle of Perth CBD has the same number of bays – that’s for hundreds of different routes! Don’t get me wrong, I’m very pro-public transport and love living in a state which can spend this kind of money on it, but did these really need to be so grand? It’s like they’re trying to make up for Ellenbrook having to wait 20 years for the train line which was designed into the place from day one, by doing the polar opposite.
Have been Perth for 3 weeks now …..using the red cat ..blue cat buses free
Out to whiteman park to visit new grand daughter….shes lovely….
Train quick and stations clean ..
Mandurah train line the same
Came into town via airport line …..bit of a walk from Jetstar to the train station…
Using buses at will ….
All for the grand cost of a concession daily go anywhere $3:20.
Stations clean and transit officers everywhere at appears all stations
They have done it well…and all well sign posted
As for the footy: it appears Freo have discovered the uncharted regions between the big sticks. Last time they were this bad in a first half (against Geelong last month, also at home on a Thursday), they flicked the switch to “good” and managed to win in the end. Looks like history repeating (pretty much level at 3QT), but why can’t this team just put four moderately good quarters together and win like that? It’d be much better for my blood pressure.
Bird of paradox says:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 10:00 pm
WWP: If you want to see a really over-done train station, visit the new ones up past Butler. They’re all in the middle of nowhere (so quiet it’s spooky after dark), but enormous. Yanchep has 16 bus platforms, which is ever slightly over-engineered considering there’s only four routes that run out of there – probably less than 100 total services on a weekday. The new underground busport in the middle of Perth CBD has the same number of bays – that’s for hundreds of different routes! Don’t get me wrong, I’m very pro-public transport and love living in a state which can spend this kind of money on it, but did these really need to be so grand? It’s like they’re trying to make up for Ellenbrook having to wait 20 years for the train line which was designed into the place from day one, by doing the polar opposite.
________________________________
Because ideally, each will end up looking like Sendai station once development is done.
WA has 3 main failings:
– Build fantastic train stations, yet to build the stuff surrounding it.
– Perth North/South a bit too sprawled, but should at least build fast rail to Busselton & Margaret River
– Way too harsh gun laws, should at least deregulate gel blasters.
Will be voting Shooters and Fishers #1, Labor #2 at the next election.
nath
By leaving all local campaigning till the last minute. Right mate. Can’t wait to see the superstars they nominate after the election has been called
subgeometersays:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 10:52 pm
nath
Maybe they are doing a thorough job for once
By leaving all local campaigning till the last minute. Right mate. Can’t wait to see the superstars they nominate after the election has been called
__________
I said maybe.
good game of footy tonight. Swans threw everything at them in the first half.
The Big Kahuna would look good in a Collingwood jumper.
Nath
Collingwood, and every other club, had chances to get treacy
A rookie draft selection.
Embarrassing a few recruiters every week.
Dam that Papley is so worthless. Kicks 1 goal and carries on like he’s won a Premiership then never seen again.
Plus he’s got a rotten head like a crooked cop.
WA definitely needs to massively step up density in proximity to train stations. It was, or at least a first step, was going to be part of metronet, but they chickened out when the property council looked their way with a raised eyebrow.
It would be decades in the making but a high speed rail from Geraldton, through a new city halfway between Perth and Gero, down to Bunbury, Busselton, Augusta and to Albany, with dedicated new industrial and commercial parks, new high density housing around hubs, developed out from Perth could really help give non Perth urban alternatives but with reasonable access to Perth.
Could stop the sprawl and help support new industries. A stop at Margaret River might even allow people to afford to live near enough time wise to Margaret River and the tourist places could find staff again.
But we can not even do density near a railway station yet, so our chances of master planning high density urban environments to support new industry and commerce along a new high speed rail is realistically zero.
@zoomster says: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 8:06 pm
“There’s an add for the proposed secession of WA that pops up on twitter sometimes.”
~~~
Besides the odd drongo, nobody in WA genuinely thinks about nor wants WA independence. Whatever mass support it had evaporated in the 1930s and it only lives on in the minds of east coasters who need a strawman to tear down whenever they need a whinge.
Although given certain drivel in a previous page, it looks like East Coasters are unfortunately capable of delivering worse…
@WeWantPaulsays: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 11:20 pm
I generally agree with you, although it will be harder to do so in newer stations which are built in the middle of highways. The sites that can be densified easily are the heritage lines where there would be less disruption if there were densification efforts. Iirc the state government has done some work around the stations on the Fremantle line.
However it was a shame what happened with the Canning Vale stations, there really was no excuse to capitulate easily.
Kirsdarke at 2.28 pm
“It seems the Luxon government’s popularity has got something of a boost going into the election in November.”
No significant change from previous polls after NZ budget 6 weeks ago.
Look at the trend graph at this link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
Luxon more than most leaders will be praying that Trump does not keep his war from being resolved.
Rex at 5.51 pm
The diplomatic reason for not selling uranium to India is India’s refusal to ratify the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
Rudd knew enough about diplomacy to recognise that. Gillard was a policy free zone (according to Carmen Lawrence who had many occasions to observe her) and rather ignorant of diplomacy as well. Just ask Bob Carr.
When Gillard was looking for a point of policy difference from Rudd when their antagonism was 100% personal she chose selling uranium to India.
Read strictly, the NPT does not give special legal privileges to the 5 states that had nuclear weapons by 1968, because article 6 imposes a clear obligation on all states to negotiate seriously on nuclear disarmament.
When asked by the Teals about when the government will honour Labor’s promise to ratify the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty, Albo and Marles typically affirm that their primary fidelity is to the NPT.
In fact they adhere not to the strict terms of that treaty, but rather to the distorted interpretation of it that is promoted by the US, Russia, China, Britain and France.
New thread.