With nearly every pollster in the game having pitched in last week, a quiet period looms. The weekly Roy Morgan should be along later today as always, and DemosAU is about due for one of its big-sample MRP projections. On the broader electoral front, there is the following to report:
• The Weekend Australian had the quarterly Newspoll detailed breakdowns from its four polls conducted in April, May and June. The state results show movement towards One Nation and away from Labor clearly evident in Victoria and South Australia, less evident in New South Wales, and not at all evident in Queensland and Western Australia, with Labor gaining three points in the former case. Breakdowns by education are distinctive in that One Nation is up six among those with technical qualifications, but effectively unchanged for everyone else. Voting intention is barely changed among 18-to-34s, whereas One Nation are up significantly among the older cohorts. Presumably inspired by the budget tax measures, the breakdowns now include housing tenure, as commonly featured by other pollsters. To commemorate the occasion, I have added tabs for these results to the BludgerTrack poll data features (keep clicking the “more” tab until you see them).
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published an interim report from its routine inquiry into the last election, which notably focuses on aggressive behaviour at polling booths. The majority report cites data on public complaints received by the AEC, and recommended that “election participants” be required to register and observe a code of conduct. The AEC, whose bailiwick currently ends six metres from the entrance, would enforce this code within a “campaign zone” around the polling place, in which signage limits would also apply. The report argued that much of the offending behaviour “seemed to involve third parties”, and while it didn’t name names, committee chair Jerome Laxale told parliament while tabling the report of “an assault by third parties identified in submissions like the Plymouth Brethren and Advance”.
• Certainly the Plymouth Brethren angle had been divined by the committee’s Coalition members, who headlined their dissenting report “less inquiry, more hyperpartisan witch hunt” – the latter having been directed against “Australians based on their religious faith”. While acknowledging aggressive behaviour was an issue, their own volunteers having been “targets for intimidation by unions and other third party organisations on polling booths for many elections”, the Coalition members forcefully rejected the recommendations as burdensome, open to abuse and possibly unconstitutional. Also in the Coalition report was a call for the early voting period, already truncated from three weeks to two before the 2022 election, to be reduced to one week, and for the AEC to be “more strident on ensuring that people accessing pre-poll are doing so for one of the reasons prescribed in the Act”.
• The official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to at the next election, which is calculated a year into each parliamentary term, will be made later this month. Antony Green has done their work for them based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics population data, and concludes there will be no change from the status quo, Queensland having recorded not quite enough growth to get it over the line for a thirty-first seat. Queensland will nonetheless get a redistribution under the seven-year rule, which is now overdue after being twice delayed: first because of the election, and then because there was no point commencing the process until it was clear how many seats the state would have. Proposed boundaries were published in March for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, final boundaries for which are expected later this month.
• Wendy Askew has brought forward the retirement she recently announced for the end of her term in mid-2028, now to take effect in a “few weeks”. This means two vacancies are now available for Tasmanian Liberal Senate seats, together with that created by Jonathan Duniam’s surprise retirement announcement last month.
So, that Senator Henderson person made a few breathless triple zero calls (or maybe more than the few she admitted to) in the wake of Telstra’s problems, to conjure up some anti -Government-by- association sentiment.
Not even a thought that she was blatantly exacerbating the situation for those genuinely seeking assistance in an emergency.
And she has fallen flat on her face.
Good.
Asha….
You are right of course regarding the complex nature of housing and it provision.
What I perceive is the fact that many of us want, when we seek to purchase a house/home/property, an “asset” as it were, which has utility of its own -whether its market value goes up or down.
Say, one buys gold, shares and the like – of themselves they have little utility to the owner – though, of course, could make a bundle of dough.
If one asks the value of a ton of gold bars while on a desert island, other than building a wall out of them, what real utility would they have?
I think our society has lost its way to the extent that those who buy property as investment largely discount the utility value or perhaps forget which is really the prime purpose of housing viz to put a roof over one’s head.
I am pleased my residence is now worth much more in money terms than it used to, but its real value is the service it provides.
My assumption was that Whingers and Whiners Inc. would be along to do the obligatory whinging and you have not disappointed me.
Oh look, Boerwar whinging about whingers again…
So Angus has finally noticed the ON threat…. it took till they got to 30 percent in the polls! Does that mean the LNP will not preference ON?
Of course not.
Not across what Segal’s issues with ABC and SBS are, but from mpov both go out of their way to provide balanced reporting.
Torchbearer
Angus has a chance of rebuilding the Coalition vote but he can’t afford any weasel words re ON. He’s gotta be ruthless on them.
Re the Victorian election.
I’m confident that the ON vote won’t result in many seats for them, but will help the Coalition win.
Jess Wilson should win Kew and take over as Premier.
Moira won’t get to the starting blocks.
Doing one of my regular checks on One Nation Victoria’s web site…
(Still no candidates, other than the one for the Nepean by election).
Love this one, from their economic policy –
‘capping expenditure on high-profile vanity projects.’
So they’re going to fund vanity projects. And they’re only capping the high profile ones…
So our Prime Minister in waiting goes to England and meets Tommy Robinson and, shortly, their own Prime Minister in waiting.
Do you think that means she’ll drop in the polls because she veered too far to the right? Of course not!
The Left don’t realise that it’s the silent majority who share her views.
I’m glad Angus Taylor has attacked Pauline Hanson and One Nation. And I like the timing – doing it while she is in the UK chumming up with a multiply-convicted criminal.
I would be overjoyed if he now came out and said as a follow-up “We will not be directing preferences to One Nation, because their policy ‘solutions’ would be disastrous for Australia”. Who knows – such sentiment might staunch the bleeding of Coalition voters in the polls.
Karen Middleton – Bush Turkey
https://www.themonthly.com.au/karen-middleton/2026-07-09/bush-turkey
“Was the PM’s appearance on a crass podcast really an attempt to play to a particular audience or was it less complicated than that?”
‘The Left don’t realise that it’s the silent majority who share her views.’
They’re so silent they don’t tell pollsters how they’re going to vote.
I’ve been hearing about the silent majority for decades. They never seem to find a voice, or be in the majority.
Rex
I don’t currently see the Coalition winning a majority in Victoria – I think they will be a minority government relying on One Nation members for support. This may change of course – One Nation haven’t yet nominated any lower house candidates I believe, and once they start doing this we will back watching the inevitable ‘One Nation Follies’ vaudeville show!
One Nation haven’t yet nominated any lower house candidates I believe
______________
Maybe they are doing a thorough job for once. They should be able to attract better candidates considering their polling. If you can hold a seat for a few terms you should come close to making a million or more.
18 weeks to the Victorian election and no ON candidates. Wowee.
“I’m glad Angus Taylor has attacked Pauline Hanson and One Nation. And I like the timing – doing it while she is in the UK chumming up with a multiply-convicted criminal.”
Being a multiply-convicted criminal doesn’t mean much if you’re criminialised by a communist or socialist ultra-woke government for expressing the views of a large section of the mainstream population. Dogmatically speaking, the President of the United States is a multiply-convicted criminal. But he still won an election fair and square, including the popular vote.
Kos Samaras – Gen Z is not ageing into the old Australia
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/07/gen-z-is-not-ageing-into-the-old-australia/
“Gen Zs are not bound by those anchors. They are the first generation of Australians socialised not by place but by connectivity. Their formative communities were not the street or the suburb but the group chat, the feed, the server. A 17-year-old in Werribee, a 19-year-old in Blacktown and a 22-year-old in Logan are consuming the same content, at the same time, shaped by the same recommendation algorithms, algorithms that neither know nor care which electorate they live in.
This matters enormously, because everything we know about how Australians form political identity assumed the old model. And the old model is dead.
:::
Gen Z has not aged into anything, because the asset escalator they were promised has been switched off. The 28-year-old is renting like the 21-year-old, precariously employed like the 21-year-old, and locked out of ownership like the 21-year-old. When material circumstances don’t diverge, neither do politics. The life-cycle theory of conservatism required a life cycle. There isn’t one anymore, or at best, the life-cycle has drastically changed.
:::
The structural point is this: One Nation’s coalition is being assembled almost entirely from older generations living in outer suburban and regional Australia. That coalition is demographically finite. Every electoral cycle, roughly 400,000 to 500,000 new Gen Z voters come onto the roll, and nine in ten of them are unavailable to the populist right. By the close of this decade there will be more than five million Gen Z Australians enrolled to vote.
:::
Australian institutions, parties, mastheads, codes, brands, spent the last decade asking when this generation would grow up and become like everyone else.
The honest answer is: they already grew up. They’re just not becoming like anyone we’ve seen before.”
I am all for Angus’s full attack on ON- BUT he will still preference them…
Totally undermines his message….
If I lived in a regional area I might put my hand up for a ON spot.
I’ve done more disgusting things for money.
Fastwheels
“ Do we have another Liberal liar?”
No, turns out she was probably right and Brown was probably wrong. The Coroner is investigating now.
Henderson interviewing Hastie.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/07/06/monday-miscellany-newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-29/#comments
One for Soc and A-E
On the Canadian sub buy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijJzPkgqz-I
The Russian-appointed governor of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, warned Wednesday that fuel shortages on the peninsula are likely to drag on as Ukrainian strikes continue to disrupt Russia’s energy infrastructure and supply routes.
“The fuel supply situation remains tense and will continue for some time,” Aksyonov wrote on Telegram, according to Reuters. “On certain days there will be no fuel available to be freely sold.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79876
OMG Timmy’s back!
Census night is about a month away, it’ll reveal more about why rents have increased imo. More people living alone and more people wanting a spare room or two to WFH
Add in the number of properties being used as short term rentals and there are less long term rentals available than there used to be
Obviously, there’s a lot less public housing as well
Not things that developed overnight but all part of the picture
In saying that, if you own a established rental property with grandfathered negative gearing attached would you be in a hurry to sell?
There are many words one can use to describe One Nation supporters, but silent isn’t one of them.
nath says:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 6:35 pm
If I lived in a regional area I might put my hand up for a ON spot.
I’ve done more disgusting things for money.
_______________________
Crikey I’m in regional Vic, if they give me money I will run for ON as a spoiler.
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Crikey I’m in regional Vic, if they give me money I will run for ON as a spoiler.
________________________________
You gotta get into Parliament to get the cash. Just join up, if you get lucky you can quit ON, sit as an Indy and pocket 800k in the term.
Even better if you can play the “I used to be a leftard buuuut” card…
Arthur Fery, the Anglo-French tennis player, who has reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon, has earned $US868,053 thus far in his career. Even if he loses, he’ll reap £900,000. Not since Ivanisevic won the final in 2001 (defeating Rafter) has a wildcard won the big one. I wish Fery well, but I doubt he’ll beat Zverev, who’s on a roll after winning the French.
Incidentally, and I say this as height is not always determinative, Fery is 5’9″; Zverev, 6 feet 6 inches. Sorry for the old measurements, but I’ve never quite got used to metrication or decimal currency.
I think if One Nation ends up being like The Greens in becoming a static base party it would probably hover around 15-20% just like how The Greens hover at 10-15%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jul/08/untold-story-why-reform-figures-face-nca-scrutiny-nigel-farage
Millions of pounds and many, many questions: the untold story of why Reform figures face NCA scrutiny
Exclusive: The details behind the financial transactions that bankers have flagged up to the National Crime Agency
“The Guardian understands Fiona Cottrell did not send the money straight to the Britain Means Business account. She routed it via a UK bank account of an Australian money exchange platform called Oneify.
According to sources, she moved the £1m to Oneify after deposits of hundreds of thousands of dollars were repeatedly made into her account. The sums came to her in several tranches, and the Guardian has been told banks were unable to trace the ultimate source of the funds.
The NCA has sought assistance in tracing the money from Austrac, their Australian counterpart, as the Oneify money exchange platform is registered there, the Guardian understands.”
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2026/07/parsing-farages-demarche-farce.html
“Here, again, there is a Brexit connection or, rather, an illustration of how Brexit has segued into Brexitism. The idea that the referendum, because it was a vote, gave rise not just to ‘the will of the people’ but rendered all further involvement by judges, civil servants or even parliament itself illegitimate, was one of the most pernicious features of the post-referendum period. Now, Farage is seeking to draw on the same well-spring, by declaring that his by-election will be about ‘the people versus the Establishment’. He even reprised one of the most irresponsible of the appeals to leave voters, to use the vote not to decide on the ostensible issue under consideration but simply to “stick two fingers up at the Establishment”.
If Farage’s gambit succeeds (a question I’ll come back to) then, even if he is subsequently found to have breached parliamentary standards, he will use the result to delegitimize that finding. He has already denounced the process as “political” in order to discredit it as being a motivated attack upon him, but doing so also has the effect of positioning it within the same arena as the overt politics of the voting process. Thus, it becomes possible to say that its findings are irrelevant because ‘the people have spoken’.”
nath says:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 7:01 pm
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Crikey I’m in regional Vic, if they give me money I will run for ON as a spoiler.
________________________________
You gotta get into Parliament to get the cash. Just join up, if you get lucky you can quit ON, sit as an Indy and pocket 800k in the term.
_________________
Oh bugger that, maybe if it is upper house then no need even to turn up
You don’t get money for running for ON
You pay them. Heaps. For campaign material like signs etc.
That’s the business model.
The second podcast of Michael Liebreich’s Deep Dive Australia series features Chris Bowen and is excellent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYtapcSdZOo&list=PLc8cNKXCII70
Almost as good as the first with ARENA CEO, Darren Miller:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBhkBTZ9lSI&list=PLc8cNKXCII70
Mercifully it is over. And presumably when he says “the structures that are being taken away from us by those in power”, he means Democrats’ refusal to field candidates with credible rape allegations against them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/us/politics/graham-platner-maine-senate.html
Timmy 632pm
One of Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon’s crimes was immigration fraud, trying to enter the United States of America under a false name with somebody else’s passport. I’m not sure whether you consider the USA a ‘communist or socialist ultra-woke government’.
He was also convicted for assaulting a police officer who had the temerity to intervene when Stephen was attacking his girlfriend.
All in all a top bloke.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/telstra-hit-by-fresh-triple-zero-fault-hours-after-outage-fixed-20260708-p60dsp.html
How many of those were made by Sarah Henderson?
Rossmcg 718pm
And apparently when ON get the ‘reimbursement’ from the government for each vote, that goes straight to head office and the poor old candidate misses out again!
@Rocket Rocket
Well no wonder they have the habit of defecting or becoming independent. Half expect ON to get a cut of their wages too
Rex Douglassays:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 6:10 pm
Not across what Segal’s issues with ABC and SBS are, but from mpov both go out of their way to provide balanced reporting.
_____________________________
Balanced reporting is by Segal’s definition – Antisemitic…
The problem with these people is that to them, the leaders and people of Israel can NEVER be in the wrong.
Bonnie Tyler, the iconic singer behind 80s chart topper Total Eclipse of the Heart, has died at age 75.
“Bonnie’s family and team are heartbroken to announce that Bonnie unexpectedly passed away last night in hospital in Portugal as a result of the illness that she was being treated for,” a statement on her official website read.
Timmy says:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 6:20 pm
No Notion have no traction whatsoever in Western Australia, where they are seen for the reactionary idiots they so clearly are.
We have a peaceful, harmonious culture in WA, where the overwhelming majority of the population are at ease in a very successful, prosperous, forward-looking and inclusive multicultural community.
No Notion are no more than political buffoonery. They will never attain power in this country.
Dyne-O-Mite interview with an Iranian academic on 7.30 now.
Sarah’s tut-tutting and condescension is water off a duck’s back to him.
She is finding out, in no uncertain terms, that she doesn’t get to tell everyone how to act and to think.
What exactly happened in Perth, that turned it from the most reliably conservative-voting city into a Labor one? Did a zillion immigrants suddenly take up Australian citizenships and overturn the vote?
And I thought Perth was meant to be a haven for white Afrikaners forced out of their own country….. the GENUINE refugees.
Sarah just had her arse handed to her after that interview.
The pursed lips were much more arched after that.
Dear old (75) Bonnie Parker meets her maker:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLj5ixRE_LY
The ADF has test-fired a prototype missile defence system as it works towards building a missile defence network across the country.
The system included a mix of Australian and American technology, with Defence aiming to build a medium-range system to defend against missiles or aircraft bound for Australia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-09/adf-missile-interceptor-australian-defence-china-icbm-test/106898684
This is not good: https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/wind-farm-kills-20-wedge-tailed-eagles-in-18-months-20260709-p60dwl or https://archive.is/UQ5Lx