Three new federal polls produce a range of movements for the leading parties, partly but not entirely due to their different time scales (weekly for one poll, fortnightly for another, monthly for a third). The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov, which was an outlier last time in failing to show a drop for One Nation, comes good this time with a four-point drop to 26%, while Labor is down a point to 28%, the Coalition are up three to 20% and the Greens are down one to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred measures have Labor’s lead out from 54-46 to 56-44 against One Nation, and in from 54-46 to 53-47 against the Coalition. Pauline Hanson also takes a hit on preferred prime minister against Anthony Albanese, whose lead is out from 49-40 to 54-35. Albanese is up two on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 56%, while Angus Taylor is down three to 33% and up two to 49%, and Albanese’s lead over Taylor as preferred prime minister is out from 44-35 to 45-34. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1468.
The monthly DemosAU poll for Capital Brief has Labor down one to 26%, One Nation down one to 29%, the Coalition up three to 21% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are down one for positive to 25%, up two for neutral to 27% and and down one for negative to 48%; Angus Taylor is up two on positive to 24%, down one for neutral to 49% and down one for negative to 27%; and Pauline Hanson is down three on positive to 34%, steady on 23% neutral and up three on negative to 43%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese steady on 35%, Taylor up three to 22% and Hanson down two to 26%. Head-to-head ratings, which weren’t included last time, have Albanese and Taylor tied at 38-all, and Albanese leading Hanson 42-37. The poll was conducted July 3 to 8 from a sample of 2694.
As with the weekend’s Resolve Strategic poll, respondents were queried about their views on a range of statements advanced by Pauline Hanson during her National Press Club speech, with distinctly less favourable results – the most obvious explanation being that Resolve Strategic’s question specifically identified the views with Hanson whereas DemosAU did not. Resolve had 33% in favour and 39% opposed on the question of whether Australia “should be monocultural, rather than multicultural”, while an all but identically worded proposition from DemosAU has 25% in favour and 51% opposed. Hanson’s proposal for the ABC had 31% in favour and 40% opposed from Resolve, while DemosAU respectively has it at 21% and 54%. Where Resolve had 32% in favour and 36% against the contention that “it should be easier for companies to sack people”, DemosAU had 32% in favour and 43% opposed to the seemingly more gently worded “employers should have more flexibility to dismiss workers”.
After recording a nine-point slump for One Nation over its two previous polls, the weekly Roy Morgan series has them bouncing back five-and-a-half points to 28%, with Labor down half a point to 27.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 20% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation has duly narrowed, from 56-44 to 52.5-47.5, and its leads over the Coalition have narrowed from 55-45 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1612.
A good discussion on VAD:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXEjdZ1oCi0
Ironically, the NT has yet to approve it.
@B.S. Fairman at 7:12pm
It might be the fight that Andy Burnham needs to cement his leadership. Apparently Parliament won’t be sitting again until September so there’s nothing major on the policy front he can pass in Westminster immediately.
However, getting into a fight with Trump’s lot being difficult about extraditing a pair of alleged rapists would be something that’d bolster him politically, just as long as he has the spine for it.
Prosecutors of the Crown aren’t like the MAGA clowns posing as lawyers in the USA, they take their jobs seriously and if they’re pressing charges then they won’t easily be fobbed off.
And who’s left to defend the Tates in the UK? Nigel Farage is currently wallowing in his own problems now that the teflon’s worn thin. This could be Burnham’s Mark Carney moment, but again, he has to have the spine for it. If he doesn’t and lets Trump’s lot walk over him then that’s his leadership pretty much over.
Bragg referring to Labor as communists puts him in the same boat as the bloke I met in my travels a few years ago from Texas, the Queensland one, who declared Albanese was a communist who had no right to be prime minister having won less than 30 percent of the vote.
I can sort of excuse the Texan cos he’s from Queensland and may not be well educated.
No excuse for Bragg. Just stupid.
Thanks guys it’s just annoying wearing an eye cap basically I taped it up when I go to bed and then when I get up I just put it under my glasses because the masking tape it’s just not good for it
From the “I Hadn’t Realised…” Department.
I’d heard that Trump was introducing an “Advance Knowledge” or “Early Warning” tier to Truth Social, by which those who wanted the latest news earliest could cough-up their $hard-earned for a Premium Membership of Truth Social.
But what I hadn’t realised was that the premium is US$1.2 MILLION per year (US$100,000 per month).
Yikes!
https://youtu.be/0OUDhrREgpY?si=0LRhLuVQyAk5P5DG
Newspoll – 19 July 2026
Change from 28 June in brackets
Primary vote
Labor: 30% (–3)
One Nation: 30% (+1)
Coalition: 19% (+2)
Greens: 12% (–1)
Other: 9% (+1)
Better Prime Minister
Anthony Albanese: 44%
Angus Taylor: 36%
Uncommitted: 20%
Albanese’s lead has narrowed to 8 points, down from 11 points on 28 June.
Leader ratings
Albanese satisfaction: 39% (–1)
Albanese dissatisfaction: 57% (no change)
Albanese net approval: –18 (down 1)
Angus Taylor satisfaction: 30% (–1)
Angus Taylor dissatisfaction: 51% (no change)
Angus Taylor net approval: –21 (down 1)
Pauline Hanson satisfaction: 47% (+1)
Pauline Hanson dissatisfaction: 47% (–2)
Pauline Hanson net approval: 0 (up 3)
Three-way PM measure
Albanese: 46% (–3)
Hanson: 32% (+1)
Taylor: 22% (+2)
Forced Albanese v Hanson measure
Albanese: 57% (no change)
Hanson: 43% (no change)
Headline: Labor has fallen back into a tie with One Nation, while the Coalition has recovered slightly from its historic low. Albanese’s leadership advantage has narrowed, but neither he nor Taylor improved their personal ratings.
Bushfire Bill @ #1405 Sunday, July 19th, 2026 – 7:53 pm
Very explicitly, this will allow Trump to sell critical information a few minutes before other people get it.
In a world where literally seconds can make the difference on stock trades, this Premium Membership will tap into a time delay mechanism where ‘Truths’ will go to the people who pay several minutes before the rest of the world gets it.
He has just created the first pay to win system for presidential announcements
Bushfire Bill @ #1404 Sunday, July 19th, 2026 – 7:53 pm
Gotta run, but two quick thoughts popped. (1) Maybe WB could try something like that. (2) We could all chip in for the first month and resell the info, say at $20K per month to 20 gullible people. It would be just a pyramid scheme.
35% news poll, posts that did not age well.
Between Monday and Thursday last week, n = 1238.
https://archive.is/qz9fv
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-pauline-hanson-regains-ground-and-liberals-rise-as-labor-falls-to-equal-lowest-point-since-2022/news-story/da8374ff67e3769478b13867909a1074
Newspoll federal poll
Primaries: ALP 30 (-3) ON 30 (+1) L/NP 19 (+2) GRN 12 (-1) OTH 9 (+1)
No TPP provided
well none for 5 for me on Newspoll
Labor sub 30, nope
One Nation behind, nope
LNP low 20’s, nope
Greens in the teens, nope
Newspoll around 9.30pm, nope
LOL
lol HBG 🙂
The grouch vote still strong……the Libs currently in dire straits…the Nationals on the verge of wipe out……Greens stuck at a benchmark level and Labor still in government – and will be for at least the next (nearly) two years.
It continues to astound that neigh on 1 in 3 voters think ON is some kind of solution……
Still, a vote is a vote in democracy so that it how it pans out.
I have not met many professed – argue-the-ON-policies-out – people yet.
Where are they hiding?
Its the economy, stupid, and the economy is migration – no matter how insane the racial rhetoric is around it.
And interest rates.
I knew Labor would be down after the podcast.
Honestly I wonder if every party is going to be stuck around the 30% I don’t think we’re going to see the highs of 40% first preferred any more
An exact time between Labor and One Nation with Labor losing support.
Very concerning stuff considering the last Newspoll.
I’ll see how many seats Labor can win with these numbers in a few minutes.
This poll shows very little difference to June 4 poll in PV.
As well June 4 poll had Albanese personal ratings as 36 approve 60 disapprove.
Outlier last poll ( perhaps) returning to status quo with Albanese personal ratings still better than 4 June.
Deep breath everyone.
Cheers and a good night to all.
I don’t know why people thinking it’s bad for Labor most like you know the coalition is not in a good position I’ll be in Labor then you know the coalition
Kevin Bonham:
#Newspoll ALP 30 L-NP 19 ON 30 Grn 12 others 9
No 2PP. My estimate 53.2 (-3.1)
My estimate for ALP vs ON 51.2 (-2.8) to ALP
Mostly Interestedsays:
Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 8:06 pm
35% news poll, posts that did not age well.
======
Yep, that was me too. Heck, I didn’t think Labor would drop and Hanson would climb.
Sorry, I am a numpty on polling. I wil stick to reading others posts here.
Looks like the Hanson thing is not over yet
@Thel C
To be fair, the sample was taken from Monday-Thursday last week, before Hanson’s bullshit began to sour over the weekend.
I’m going to wait until the next Newspoll to see if this remains the case. If so, then, yep, shit’s pretty much fucked. Hanson’s teflon is invincible.
Well, bugger that for a sick joke. Still, while there is life there is hope. Essendon won today.
Regular posters post much sillier things than what you did, Thel C.
Sample size a bit over 1600 —> margin of error about 2.5%.
The movement from the last Newspoll is significant. Given that the last Newspoll showed a jump in Labor support and it’s since dropped back, maybe last week was a rogue.
Thomas Brian Muttersays:
Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 8:33 pm
An exact time between Labor and One Nation with Labor losing support.
Very concerning stuff considering the last Newspoll…….
==================
It’s very concerning. I know someone has produced a Kevin Bonham 2pp calculation, but from what I see it’s…
30 (ON) + 19 (LNP) plus 13% of the Greens plus 40% of independents/others.
This looks well in excess of 50%
Why people want to keep bouncing back to the right – I don’t know – but this poll is sh!t.
SO much for thinking the ALP might bounce up to 35%.
Clearly they love Tommy Robinson looney talk and Malcom Roberts looney talk. It’s like heroin for them.
Just one last post before bed time.
If you look through the polling data in bludger track you will see the last Newspoll PV for labor at 33% stands out like the proverbial dogs …. compared to other polls at that time. Even at 30% labor PV is still at the top end with all/ most of polling has labor at around 28%.
I am not saying it is all chocolates and champagne for labor by any means but the howling at the moon by some posters ( with more to come I am sure) is a bit of a stretch with , in my opinion, this poll simply returning to the current national status quo.
Cheers.
In a speech a couple of days ago, Tim Ayres said:
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/t-ayres/media/chamber-minerals-and-energy-wa-breakfast
While I’m not naive enough to think the govt will get much credit for the above, come election time I am confident that voters will assess the alternatives and vote for the only sane choice.
New thread.
SL
Living in WA and taking an interest in such matters I well recall the doom and gloom merchants quoted in the media when trump started the war that there would be no fuel and no fertiliser and no crops.
We will all be ruined, they cried.
Well the local grain industry’s monthly report I read the other day said the planned acreage was pretty much planted and after good early season rain over much of the grain growing areas things are looking good.
I have no confidence that the usual suspects in rural and regional wa will give Labor any credit for assuring fuel and fertiliser was available.
They will find something else to whinge about.
Arky says:
Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 6:36 pm
Meanwhile I see The Age is seizing on the Comm Games approaching to run reminders of the Vic government’s comm games debacle even though there’s not anything new to report. Typical of them.
__________________
Not unwarranted. They shouldn’t have bid for it if they couldn’t afford it and weren’t prepared to commit to it. Especially given how keen India is to host a Games.
I am trying to watch the FIFA World Cup Final. Can they just STFU with singing and start the bloody game? Tom Cruise is waffling on about stuff we, as football fans, already know.
And I am not going to watch the half-time show. If I had wanted a concert I would have bought a ticket for a concert, or changed the channel to watch a concert.
I am here for a football match.
nath
You may not have noticed but there are few countries that now have birth rates above replacement rates. Those countries are the only ones that can reliabily supply immegrants.