Morgan: Labor 27.5, Coalition 23, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)

480 thoughts on “Morgan: Labor 27.5, Coalition 23, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)”

1. 
   Diogenes says:
   Friday, July 24, 2026 at 9:44 pm

   I imagine that a Royal Commission is a “balance of probabilities” judgement so if you only hear one side of the argument, it’s a judgement by default. But I could be wrong.
   
   But what is being judged? Seems like nothing more than a whinge fest. How do you create a report from that?

2. Commonwealth Games became too woke by cancelling all shooting events.

   (That’s the kind interpretation, because if anyone is familiar with the CGs, the alternative explanation as to why it was excluded may not be a good look for the Scots)

   https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/samaresh-jung-cwg-commonwealth-games-nostalgia-melbourne-2006-10799109/

   https://www.sportingnews.com/in/tsn/news/medals-india-commonwealth-games-past-performance-every-cwg-edition-detailed/a4a4d33fea914374d6d10b5e

   

3. For a country of one point a lot billion people, India’s sporting achievements are pathetic. There’s cricket, and there used to be hockey, then there’s … not a huge lot else.

   If there were an Olympic medal for underachievement, they’d win followed by daylight.

4. “But what is being judged? Seems like nothing more than a whinge fest. How do you create a report from that?”

   I think that the Commissioner hears the evidence and then crafts their report according to the terms of reference. Hearing the direct accounts of the lived experience of Jewish people in Australia is useful to put things in context and being seen to meet the terms of reference:

   “AND that hearing from the Jewish Australian community will be important to informing the recommendations of your inquiry and recognising concerns relating to educational and cultural institutions, and other sectors of Australian society. ”

   Except personal, I think this bit now looks a bit unfortunate. 🙁

   “AND that the Australian Government has adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism. ”

   Although this bit may be where Israel / Zionist advocates get uncomfortable if they are talking about reasons for the the rise in antisemitism after 7/10/23.

   “tackling antisemitism by:

   investigating the nature and prevalence of antisemitism in institutions and society, and examining its key drivers in Australia,”

   https://asc.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/letters-patent-royal-commission-antisemitism-and-social-cohesion

5. Gazapalooza again, the real issues affecting cost of living for Australians, NOT!

   Bleeding heart clowns like rexy and hbg crying over spilt milk that Albo isn’t rent in sackcloth and ash
   over the murderous goons who voted for and instigated the murder of children cowering in panic rooms,

   Absolutely Sickening!

6. Morning from a very cold Mildura (well it IS winter…)

   Can’t sleep so thought I would put down some ruminations that I have been ruminating about.

   In regards to the future prospects of the Victorian Premier and the Allen Government at this stage on paper it does not look good. I have a lot of time for Jacinta but there has been quite a few issues on her watch that have not been handled well.

   Sure there have been some big wins such as the Metro Tunnel opening and the ongoing level crossing removal projects, West Gate Tunnel and so on, however JA is unable to cut through in regards to ‘bread and butter’ topics and other issues that seem to take up considerable newsprint and radio / TV airtime.

   For example:

   Local government
   – Always a vexed issue. There are quite a few Councils that are now ‘rogue’, lumbered with party political machinations or, in the case of my former employer Hepburn Shire Council (HSC), totally dysfunctional due to one individual being a vexatious litigant. JA needs to step up and either bring in administrators or redraw boundaries (in the case of HSC) as clearly many of the smaller Councils cannot continue to function effectively.
   – Councils are being forced to do more with less $$$ from the State. This needs a radical rethink and as mentioned above probably some realignment of Council boundaries.

   Public transport
   – Some good wins regarding the Metro Tunnel but the west is hurting particuarly in regards to chronic over-crowding on Geelong and Ballarat line services. JA needs to fast track electrification to Melton (actually take the wires to Bacchus Marsh) and Wyndham Vale and around back to Werribee. Furthermore get some fundamentals right such as V/Line having a proper back up signalling network when telcos go down.
   – The SRL is an albatross around the Vic Government’s neck and the long term benefits have not been sold well at all. This needs a rethink now.
   – The tram network needs some love and rapid expansion to places such as Knox City, Southland and other places.
   – The bus network needs a major root and branch review with significant reform and JA needs to adopt a Dan Andrews approach to deal with vested interests in the bus industry.

   Roads
   – Yes potholes are a big issue particularly in the regions so JA needs to get back to bringing road maintenance ‘in house’ and not rely on external contractors and sub-contractors to do the work. Road maintenance is a complex issue and is not helped by huge B and C triple trucks ripping up the roads.
   – JA needs to get tough with the road freight industry and get more containers and freight back on rail where it belongs. Furthermore registrations for these huge US imported ‘SUVs’ need to be tripled and treated like a truck. Want to drive a massive Dodge RAM… you need a MR licence.

   Media
   – The Age is clearly running an anti-JA campaign which is a continuation of the anti-Dan campaign along with shoutback radio 3AW which also belongs to the same stable as The Age. JA needs to change the narrative and get more on the front foot like she did at Docklands a few weeks ago when the Indian PM was in town.

   Say sorry and admit failings
   – JA needs to person up and admit the Vic Govt has made some stupid blunders and decisions that in the light of day should be reconsidered. Be open, honest and own it. Commonwealth Games is one such issue although in hindsight it was probably the right one.

   Just some random thoughts at 0315 on a Saturday morning.

7. 

8. One Nation is on track to sweep the Victorian election by winning up to 34 seats in a “f..king urgent” crisis for Labor and Australian politics at large, party members have been warned, as state MPs consider whether moving on Premier Jacinta Allan will save them from a wipeout in their heartland at November’s election.

   As the surge of One Nation threatens to tear through outer-suburban and regional Labor electorates, factional leaders at the ALP national conference in Adelaide have spent the past two days debating whether to send a delegation to Ms Allan to convince her to stand down in favour of Deputy Premier Ben Carroll to prevent an electoral bloodbath.

   Victorian Trades Hall Council secretary Luke Hilakari told Labor delegates at a side event at the conference on Friday that if Victoria fell to One Nation there would be little hope for the rest of the country. The head of the state’s union movement, who has been warning about One Nation’s threat to Labor’s traditional working-class base well before leadership rumblings emerged against Ms Allan, said polling commissioned by his organisation suggested Pauline Hanson’s party could win up to 34 seats in November. This could make it the majority partner in a coalition government, he warned.
   Mr Hilakari said unionism was the solution to One Nation’s resurgence and Senator Hanson’s achilles heel was industrial ­relations, saying she needed to be exposed as someone who wanted to “destroy the lives of working people”. “We are at like a really dangerous moment in our democracy, and it is f..king urgent … In Victoria, One Nation is growing,” he said. “They can form government. I’ve got them potentially winning at their very best 34 seats on a really good day for them … that’s a dangerous idea that Pauline Hanson may want to select the next premier for Victoria. So there is a lot at stake right now, and the victory for them goes straight through the working class.”
   https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/one-nation-could-win-34-seats-in-urgent-crisis-for-victorian-labor/news-story/cd425206a274bed8e14d42b473219871?amp

9. Australia’s proposed nuclear submarine fleet will leave behind tonnes of weapons-usable uranium-235: radioactive for hundreds of millions of years, and capable of being processed into scores of warheads, nuclear experts have told a public inquiry into Aukus.
   And a former White House national security adviser has told the Guardian that Australia’s Aukus deal – involving the transfer of highly enriched uranium to a non-nuclear weapons nation – sets a dangerous proliferation precedent that other countries such as Iran could try to exploit, weakening global control of the spread of weapons-usable nuclear material.
   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/25/aukus-nuclear-submarines-danger-weapons-grade-uranium

10. Imaca
    That would put them on par with the US. A supposedly Christian State that really only pays lip service to Christianity.

    Its a fascinating question.

    Is the US a Christian nation, undoubtedly. Is it Church of England garden tea party and cucumber sandwich Christian, undoubtedly not.

    We struggle with understanding fundamentalism in Australia, we’re almost uniquely a middle of the road nation for all sorts of historical reasons, and to my mind that is the sole reason we’re the lucky country.

    Every now and then the non-fundamentalists get hold of the reins of power in the US and we’re fooled into thinking that they are normal human beings, but make no mistake the Christian fundamentalists run the joint.

11. “TM
    She is trying to shore up her leadership by getting the MP’s aligned to the ASU on her side in the event of a challenge. In return for its support the ASU want the cap lifted as they say it is acting as a barrier to wage increases for local council employees. It’s members.
    They want councils to be able to pass the cost of these increases onto local residents.”

    In one of those rare moments I’m aligned with TM about the AWU (not necessarily about Victoria but the union).

    I bumped into an AWU union when discussing council mergers down here in Tasmania. Any way you slice it we have too many, and they are too small to be viable. I’m pro merger and the AWU defended the anti merger stance, and when all was said and done their only reoccurring argument was that it would cost AWU members their job. My last point on the matter was the vast number of benefits gained by the actual rate payers, they said that didnt matter the (very small) number of AWU jobs was more important that rate payers.

12. Local governments are a menace. Too large to confine them to the 3 Rs but too small to be viable governments and too easily hijacked by spivs and nutters.

    Victoria needs no more than 10 of them. 1 for ‘much of Melbourne’ like Bris. 1 each for Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Peninsula and Wodonga (with agreement of nsw to share admin) and a few others

13. World News & Politics Patrol:

    London Mayor: ‘I will act to enforce arrest warrant against Netanyahu’: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/3fe2hlsw1

    CJP protests: India tells GitHub to block Bitchat app, Jack Dorsey leaks notice: https://www.indiatoday.in/technology/news/story/cjp-protests-india-tells-github-to-block-bitchat-app-jack-dorsey-leaks-notice-2955199-2026-07-24

    Woman, 25, charged after suspected car bomb intercepted near Irish border: https://news.sky.com/story/extremely-significant-car-bomb-intercepted-near-border-by-irish-police-13566599

    Trump says he trusts Russia and China’s leaders not to enable Iran: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-warns-china-russia-against-involvement-iran-war-2026-07-24/

    Trump mulls escalation in Iran but says Tehran is getting ‘more serious’ in talks: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/24/world/live-news/iran-war-trump

    US imposes new tariff of 12.5% on Switzerland over forced labour: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/us-imposes-new-tariff-of-12-5-on-switzerland-over-forced-labour/91793008

    Russian ballistic missile strikes Kyiv arms exhibition, killing at least 10, injuring 100: https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-daytime-missile-attack/

    Zelensky warns of another Russian mass missile attack, says Moscow preparing for ‘significant’ wave of mobilization: https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-warns-of-another-russian-mass-missile-attack-says-moscow-preparing-for-significant-wave-of-mobilization/

    Zelensky Tells Loomer Ukraine’s Drone Range Will Reach 10,000 Km by 2027: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81018

    Nearly £250,000 wiped off average house price in central London in a year in 23% slump: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/house-prices-fall-central-london-mortgage-interest-rates-b1290892.html

    ‘Reacher’ Star Alan Ritchson Calls Trump ‘F**king Rapist’ in Epstein Files Tirade: https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2026/07/24/reacher-star-alan-ritchson-trump-all-up-into-13-year-olds/

    Senior Pentagon Official Suspended After Bashing Trump on Hidden Camera: https://www.newsweek.com/senior-pentagon-official-suspended-bashing-trump-on-hidden-camera-brandon-newsom-12232247

    RFK Jr. Now Responsible for 35-Year Record High in Measles: https://newrepublic.com/post/213515/rfk-jr-35-year-record-high-measles

    Cyclosporiasis outbreak expands to 9 states: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cyclosporiasis-outbreak-expands-9-states-rcna589013

    “Sick of This Sh*t”: Mike Johnson Snaps Over Republican Dysfunction: https://newrepublic.com/post/213490/mike-johnson-snaps-fails-control-republican-party

    Trump Unveils Sweeping New Tariffs Expected to Cost Americans $100 Billion a Year: https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-section-301-tariffs

14. Councils probably were fit for purpose prior to the internet. Not so much these days. Sub departments inside a state government is probably the right model these days.

15. Sucked in Sky News.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2026/jul/24/sky-australia-news-24-rename-weekly-beast

16. The Liberal party finally finds the ideal women members: those who take a vow of silence.

    When NSW Liberal operative Christian Ellis, 34, moved to Deniliquin and allegedly embarked on a push to stack branches to unseat the former opposition leader Sussan Ley in Farrer, the one-time political staffer found the perfect party members in the Carmel of Elijah nuns.

    On a rural property between the tiny Riverina town of Mathoura and Deniliquin is the monastery home to the Carmelite nuns who largely live their lives in silence. Multiple Liberal Party sources have said nuns from the monastery were allegedly signed up as party members as part of Ellis’ efforts to take over the region’s branches.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-former-opposition-leader-the-alleged-branch-stacking-and-the-silent-nuns-20260724-p60i9g.html

17. ON the natural home of nut jobs.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-neanderthals-or-rednecks-inside-the-rise-of-one-nation-in-sydney-20260722-p60hjd.html

18. Holdenhillbilly at 6.57 am

    Gender gap in perceptions of Trump now about 20%. Male disapproval of Trump only 44%, female is 63%.

    Such a shame for the US and the world that a clear majority of women took so long to see beyond their men.

19. The NSW Liberal Party has some interesting factions, albeit somewhat shortened in stature for now. There is the Moderates, the Uglies, and the Cult of Personality types who are attracted to the latest charismatic personality- like GladysB or Scott Morrison.

    Then there are ‘The Reformers’, who are about to feature in ICAC hearings about corrupt payments, branch stacking and how you get a seat at the pew.

    Many more names were to come, however, in the contents of an anonymously authored document entitled “The Men Who Stole the Hills”, which subsequently began circulating in state parliament and eventually was tabled.

    The dossier’s focus was a group of deeply religious members of the Liberal Party’s right faction founded by Ellis in February 2018, later registered as an unincorporated entity – ABN 35 184 583 948 – under the name NSW Reformers.

    Dirt files or “shit sheets” are a common reality of modern politics, but this one took it to a new level: slickly produced, running to more than 300 pages, replete with the names and party offices held by members of the group, the relationships between them, including employment histories, along with times and dates of events involving them, maps, graphs, tables of data and full colour pictures of numerous party members and associates.

    The Reformers believed they were doing God’s work, as “a movement that seeks to promote Christian values in society”.

    The dossier described them as “a group formed with the sole and express purpose of recruiting or stacking branches to the NSW Liberal Party with the goal of installing their own people into Council and Parliament…”

    The group’s “primary decision makers”, it claimed, were “a small body consisting of people who had known each other for years through shared community, religion, and schooling from the Opus Dei sect of Catholicism.”

    The dossier alleged then premier Dominic Perrottet to be one of these three key “decision makers”. Also named was Damien Tudehope, the then minister for finance and government leader in the NSW upper house. The third was the premier’s brother, Charles Perrottet. No allegations of corruption have been made against Dominic Perrottet.

    Supposed “main operators” or “stars” in the sect’s plan to control the party included Christian Ellis, Robert Assaf, Dylan Whitelaw and another Perrottet brother, Jean-Claude.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2026/07/25/whos-who-icacs-liberal-probe

20. President Trump abruptly switched aircraft when leaving Turkey this month after what officials judged to be a credible threat that Iranian proxy forces were targeting him and Air Force One, according to multiple people briefed on the matter.

    The threat emerged while Mr. Trump was attending the NATO summit. He had flown into Ankara on the new Qatari-donated Boeing 747-8, which lacks the same advanced defensive capabilities of the old Air Force One, as The New York Times previously reported.

    After the U.S. government picked up on the threat, the Secret Service urged Mr. Trump to change planes. He later announced that he would be using the old plane to leave the country.

    The information about the nature of the threat, which has not been reported before, sheds light on why the White House moved swiftly to swap out the planes. It also underscores the concerns about the security of the donated jet, which Mr. Trump pressed to be ready as soon as possible for his use.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/us/politics/trump-plane-iran-threat.html

21. It’s too late to change leaders in Victoria imo, the election is only 3ish months away

22. Poor Well Done Angus might be about to get some media attention – though not one of his choosing.

    ICAC hearings start on Monday for 8 weeks, and one of those in the dock is his former campaign manager…

    Dallas McInerney The conservative Catholic and chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW has long been seen as a dominant figure on the hard right. He is being investigated over allegations of donations that were not declared, that exceeded applicable donation caps and were used to fund right-wing branch-stacking.

    He is allied to the so-called Reformers, and also is close to Opposition Leader Angus Taylor. When it was announced that McInerney was being investigated by ICAC, David Elliott called for Taylor to resign, saying “the fact that Dallas McInerney was his campaign treasurer leaves him and the Liberal Party exposed”. There is no suggestion Taylor is implicated in any way. McInerney has “temporarily” stood aside from his job with Catholic Schools NSW.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2026/07/25/whos-who-icacs-liberal-probe

23. As JD Vance prepares to make a decision about his 2028 plans, the vice president is facing a barrage of online attacks from within his party, criticism his allies say appears to be part of a coordinated attempt to poison the well for him politically.

    His detractors have adopted the “Never Vance” slogan and flooded social media, especially over the past week, with attacks including claims that Vance is “unfit” to be vice president due to his efforts to negotiate a peace deal with Iran. They have asserted, without evidence, that Vance is making policy decisions not supported by President Donald Trump. They have likened him to former president Barack Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont).

    The sustained public hostility from Vance’s own side of the aisle is unlike that faced by other vice presidents in decades, both in intensity and in the early timing — two years before the party will choose its next presidential nominee. The unusual nature is a product of the central role that social media plays in today’s political discourse, as well as the high stakes as Republicans prepare to select a new standard-bearer after Trump, Vance allies and critics say.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/24/knives-are-out-vance-gop-his-allies-say-its-coordinated-op/

    It’s not too hard to poison the well. Vance is extremely unpopular with ordinary voters.

24. And opening the batting for The Reformers on Tuesday is the well connected Michael O’Hara…

    Damien Tudehope The shadow attorney-general and leader of the opposition in the Legislative Council is not accused of any wrongdoing yet has become something of a casualty of Operation Rosny even before the start of hearings. On July 3, Tudehope announced he was stepping aside from his positions, on the basis he had been called as a witness and that Project Rosny was investigating “several people with whom I have had close relationships during my political career”.

    Tudehope is former president of the anti-abortion group Right to Life NSW, and spokesperson for the Australian Family Association. He once ran against the Liberal Party as a candidate for the Australian Family Alliance. For more than 30 years up to 2010, he worked as a solicitor for the law firm O’Hara & Company, whose principal, Michael O’Hara, is said to be similarly socially conservative.

    Michael O’Hara Also the owner of dozens of hotels, O’Hara is under investigation to determine whether undeclared donations were made through one of his companies, Paslibdan Pty Ltd, to be used for branch-stacking. According to a list of witnesses released by ICAC on Wednesday, O’Hara will be the first to give evidence, next Tuesday.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2026/07/25/whos-who-icacs-liberal-probe

25. 
    Why do most people misunderstand the reality of our global energy grid? It’s not an accident. What the data shows is a technological and economic revolution moving at an exponential pace. But public perception is stuck 15 years in the past.
    

    Arguing we are in a S curve when it comes to energy transition.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgBTARXEfxU

26. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 6:24 am
    Australia’s proposed nuclear submarine fleet will leave behind tonnes of weapons-usable uranium-235: radioactive for hundreds of millions of years, and capable of being processed into scores of warheads, nuclear experts have told a public inquiry into Aukus.
    And a former White House national security adviser has told the Guardian that Australia’s Aukus deal – involving the transfer of highly enriched uranium to a non-nuclear weapons nation – sets a dangerous proliferation precedent that other countries such as Iran could try to exploit, weakening global control of the spread of weapons-usable nuclear material.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/25/aukus-nuclear-submarines-danger-weapons-grade-uranium

    ___________________

    What a stupid article, trust the guardian to blame all the world’s woes on Australia – yeah it Australia (who is working with the iaea) who’s to blame, not Israel, nor Saudi who are about to start enriching themselves. And if the US and UK are really that concerned, they can take the material back afterwards.

27. Alpha Zero @ 5.15pm
    My wife and I had prepared the Tour Snacks.
    We set the recorder and switched onto the Etepe once the footy concluded.
    A stunning victory from Poggy.
    Looking hugely to tonight’s stage when I arrive home from the footy.

28. Totally normal and not at all a sign of cognitive decline.

    President Donald Trump on Friday ordered the installation of signs outside the Smithsonian National Museum of American History that warn of “inaccurate” exhibits and direct people to “accurate information regarding America’s history.”

    In an executive order, Trump cited a 162-page White House report released on July 4 titled “Saving America’s Story,” which, according to the president, “demonstrates that the Smithsonian leadership does not present American history as a shared national inheritance to be taught and celebrated, but instead views American history as a ‘prime tool’ to advance ideas of social justice and the radical transformation of our society.”

    The White House said in a companion statement that the Smithsonian generally and its American history museum in particular have veered “toward extreme political activism, rooted in Marxism, to divide, dispirit, and discourage Americans.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2026/07/24/trump-orders-warning-signs-near-smithsonian-escalating-fight-over-history/

29. TM

    ‘We don’t even have a rubbish tip in Geelong anymore. It was closed due to asbestos years ago and they have done nothing about since.’

    You can thank Kennett for that. Closing tips was one of the consequences of council amalgamations. Because tips are expensive to run, when three or so councils were amalgamated, most opted to only keep one out of the three (worse, many of these councils had multiple tips already, and dropped down to one or two).

    However, it has to be said that the EBA’s strict requirements has made local tips unaffordable. In our area, this has meant that several councils have got together to form an overarching waste management scheme, which means that most councils under this do not have a tip at all.

    They’ve opted for ‘transfer stations’ instead, which is a collection point from which your rubbish goes somewhere else.

    This is a pie which isn’t going to be unbaked. Firstly, it’s just too expensive. Secondly, if you want to see NIMBY in glorious action, try suggesting that you’re going to buy a bit of land for a tip.

30. Mavis @ 7.28pm
    In another life time, prior to retirement, I was the Sports Convenor at the Primary School where I taught.
    I organised and ran an “Out of School Sports Program” in addition to organising all of the other school sporting programs.
    Fortunately, the school admin recognised the huge workload which this entailed and I was timetabled extra relief periods, per week, to compensate for much of this work load.
    One of the sports which was offered, was Lawn Bowls.
    The first group contained 15 students.
    It later became one of the most popular options.
    I always wondered how it became so popular, so I went one day, and discovered that apart from expert instruction the club provided a sausage sizzle, drinks and ice creams for the students after their games.
    The bowls bus was always the first to fill and leave.
    The students always reported that they had enjoyed the bowls experience!