I have a guide up for the Western Australian state by-election for Secret Harbour, where events have moved quickly since Paul Papalia announced his retirement on July 6. The by-election will be held on August 29, and candidates are already in place following the ballot paper draw on Tuesday. A remarkable field of 16 candidates has emerged, with six independents joining candidates from 10 of the state’s 13 registered parties. This is unlikely to dent perceptions of the by-election as a contest between Labor and One Nation, in an area whose low ethnic diversity and large trades workforce reflects that of the South Australian seats where One Nation emerged as a threat to Labor in March.
Labor’s candidate is Georgia Tree, a former staffer to local federal MP Madeleine King and government relations employee at Woodside. One Nation has endorsed Luke Herdegen, a gymnasium franchisee and former national weightlifting champion. Basil Zempilas’s contention that any defeat for Labor would a win for the Liberals said much about his party’s prospects, though it has a seemingly strong candidate in Ryan Robertson, a Rockingham councillor, real estate agent and former submariner, the latter a particular asset in a seat located near the HMAS Stirling naval base.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the by-election. The open thread for general discussion is here.
This is another preview of the Coalition preferencing One Nation to stop Labor winning seats – which in 2028 might achieve what was nearly achieved in South Australia : moving enough Labor seats to One Nation to make One Nation the official opposition. Which could create the bizarre scenario of Angus Taylor (if he actually held his seat against One Nation!) losing the election but also losing his position as leader of the Opposition despite still being Liberal leader.
I predict a one nation win in Secret Harbour.
A ON win in Secret Harbour might well provoke another crisis in the WA Libs.
The SA Libs under Antic are said to be closer to ON than is healthy and there are sure to be like minded Liberals in WA.
They should remember the flirtation with ON that produced the first McGowan landslide.
Byelection pulls all the fruitloops out of the woodwork. I don’t know why people think this is bad for the libs – surely 2 seats in 2021 is the very bottom.
I live nearby this seat, and I think Labor will probably still win – but it will definitely be a Labor vs One Nation contest. Labor’s candidate comes off as a little arrogant and uninspiring (to say nothing of the fact that she lives some 60km outside of the district), and having walked directly out of a corporate job with a gas company doesn’t really do her favours with anyone who is interested in the environment or in making gas companies pay some more tax (widely supported across the political spectrum according to the polling) either.
My prediction: Labor to retain with a 2CP of 55-60 versus One Nation. Subject to change if there’s some actual public polling done.
Think ON will win only bcos the result is immaterial and people can give the govt. a kick in the pants with no consequences and vent their anger at the LNP at the same time- like Farrer and SA election (A pox on both your houses). The Vic election is a different matter bcos there is a genuine possibility of a change of govt. I think when the voters go to the polls on Nov 28 2026 they will cast their vote for ALP or LNP, but who knows. U wouldn’t be dead for quids
Ticktock
Thanks for the inside info. When I first heard about this by-election I thought it was a lay down misère for One Nation but maybe not so after all.
Basil Zempilas’ comments are akin to raising the white flag I think. And if the Liberal vote really tanks from the already-low 25% at the last election to under 15% like in Farrer it will be interesting to hear the spin from Zempilas (and Taylor). If it’s under 10% will the Liberals have to ‘change or die’ again?
Greens to win it imo
Or run 4th
Apparently the One Notion candidate has a colourful past involving cocaine use, panic attacks, Albanian underworld figures and a multi-millionaire girlfriend.
https://bsky.app/profile/kevinbonham.bsky.social/post/3mrc75tp4nc22
@HBG:
If there’s a huge stampede of Liberal supporters flocking to One Nation, it could be pretty funny to see the Liberals lower than the Greens (or the Libs being excluded before the Greens)! Probably the best outcome for the Greens in this seat that’s even remotely within the realm of plausibility.
One Nation isn’t polling as strongly in WA, if the recent DemosAU poll is accurate, with WA Labor on 33%, the WA Liberals on 23% and One Nation on 18%. Though One Nation will be very happy with the demographics of this seat and will likely be very competitive here. Agree that it will almost certainly be an ALP-ONP contest at the final count.
One Nation have always had a solid core support of between 8 to 12 per cent here and national focus will incentivise voters to send a strong message to both major parties The Liberal candidate has good credentials so although their vote may not be as high as they hoped it will not collapse completely and being no 1 on the ballot will help.
As for the proverbial comment that One Nation preferences damaged the Libs in 2017 this is incorrect. The Barnett govt had been in power for two terms and with the lack of an emerging leader within the Liberals voter fatigue had set in together with burgeoning debt. The polling before the 2017 Election had a clear trend against them. Barnett trots this out as an excuse now.
This will be a tight contest but my prediction is a narrow One Nation win with voters angry at being forgotten.
I’d take 3rd place TickTock, it’ll be interesting to see where it lands
Sounds like there are some interesting candidate choices. I get confused at times if Labor runs the state over there or Woodside does. The 2 seem to be interchangeable at times
I have a lot of family and people I know live in the Secret Harbour and Port Kennedy area. I do fear that One Nation will win this seat, with Liberal preferences. Unfortunate for the people in the area, but the electorate gets who they vote for. Best chance for Labor is One Nation’s lack of rigour when it comes to screening candidates. Could see a few more skeletons come out of the closet yet.
Vote 1, Teresa van Lieshout (St Teresa)
If the libs manage to get their vote above one nation i wonder if they could win on one nation preferences. But then again maybe labor voters will ignore the htv and preference labor instead.
{sound of wheezing laughter}
William:
*raises eyebrow*
Hard Being Green:
Now now, it’s not always the resource industry running this state. Sometimes the property development industry has a turn too (our other alternate premier, Nigel Satterley). Go down to the bottom end of Warnbro Sound Ave to see WA’s other main industry at full pelt. Every time I go down that part of the world there seems to be a new subdivision getting built.
Its the basic political calculus. Spend resource taxes, generated in the north west (out of sight out of mind) in Perth where the voters are, stay in power.
Make hay while the sun shines I guess, it won’t last forever
Credit were it’s due though, WA has resisted the temptation of pokies and the windfall they provide governments. At great cost to the population more broadly
It seems the feckless Libs have lifted preferences for ON above that of Labor. Whether that will make any difference to the outcome is anyone’s guess. What is does show is that the Libs would actually prefer the potential chaos of ON in parliament rather than a more steadfast Labor/LNP offering.
What a gutless lot the Libs are.
I don’t think it should come as a surprise to anyone that the WA Libs think they have more in common with Pauline Hanson than they do with Roger Cook. Their HTV decision is, accordingly, not a surprise.
I wonder if part of the no pokies policy in WA is that if they had pokies – and the associated revenue – they would even less reason reason to suck GST revenue out of the rest of the country. They can ride both horses – minimise social harm – and keep the money pouring in.
So, the Libs are going to preference some Christian group, followed by Hanson’s crew. It will be interesting to see how many Libs follow the Party’s
How-to-Vote cards.
Labor announcing today that their promised freeway upgrade to the southern suburbs will get underway next year:
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/700-million-kwinana-freeway-upgrade-greenlit-with-extra-lanes-for-southern-suburbs-commuters-20260726-p60iol.html
Can you read into that that they’re a little worried, or is that just normal election-time pork-barrelling?
From that article:
Old news, getting reannounced. There’s always some kind of work happening on the freeway – that whole section between Roe Hwy and Beeliar Dr just got rebuilt a couple of years ago, which inevitably moved the traffic jam a few km south. Nothing particularly special about it.
Libs promising to build Karnup train station if they win government… in 2029:
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/secret-harbour-by-election-liberals-promise-to-build-karnup-station-build-if-it-wins-government-in-2029-c-22630404
Bit odd as a pitch for a by-election in 2026, tbh. There will be another election in Secret Harbour at the 2029 state election, after all. That said, the station really ought to be built, and the Liberals aren’t alone in being (at least nominally) in support of it.
Mind you, it was Liberal MP Hastie and the federal Morrison government that kind of knocked Karnup station on its head to begin with – federal co-funding arrangements meant that a station was built at Lakelands (in Liberal-held Canning) instead of Karnup (which was in Labor-held Brand back then). Funny how political winds change.
If polling shows one nation doing well watch Hastie get involved the last thing he needs is a beach head, in his wider fed electorate for one nation.
There is some fanfare about One Nation potentially winning Secret Harbour, but it is highly unlikely. Secret Harbour, and the Rockingham are generally, is actually doing quite well despite its ‘bogan’ reputation. The area doesn’t have the same level of social disadvantage of nearby Mandurah or Kwinana. The unionised older generation is still very rusted-on Labor, both in primary vote and preferences, along with most women in the electorate. Young blokes and ‘fit mums’ will be susceptible to One Nation and put off by the bohemian Tree, but even if One Nation reaches 30% of the Primary Vote, their preferences will flow to Labor rather than the Liberals. Labor’s margin will be dented and they have reasons to worry about the implications of the result for the rest of WA, but this by election will be much-ado about nothin’
Dan…
Regardless of your comments any paint off Labor will be seized upon by the West newspaper, its editor and its owner(s) as some kind of ‘victory’ for their side of politics.
At the moment, none of the major political parties can be immune from the Gripe Factor which seems to be infecting the brains of those who look for simple, non-cost outcomes, for fixing the “problems” of the State/Country.
If Labor holds the seat – which logic suggests is the likely outcome – any swing against Labor will be welcomed by those whose politics range from the (nominally) sensible stance to the fools out in ON-ville.
Dan
I think you mean fantasy rather than fanfare
One Nation as a working political model is an unproven fantasy.
Yes, quite possibly, but One Nation being capable of winning a by-election is a recently proven reality.
Interesting discussion.
It is safe ALP country, however if the ALP/Greens primary vote falls below 45% (which is likely) it could be a close-run thing. In the actual state election it is hard to see this seat as anything but Labor.
But this is a by-election, and the government is completely out of touch with voters on many issues, so it could be an opportunity for a bit of government bashing.
The interesting question is whether the Libs get more votes than ON. They have a strong local candidate and are making a very strong push. ON has lots of media, but no organisation, so might struggle to get the vote many think they will get.
my prediction is the ALP on preferences, 2PP of 52/48. So, a close-run thing compared to previous elections. Madeleine King will be a little concerned. She had a big swing against her last election.
As to the thinking on preferencing ON above the ALP, that isn’t waving the flag, that is a no-brainer for any on the right of centre. The mantra is get the ALP/Greens out of office. The ALP preference the far-left Greens ahead of more sensible options, even as they often loath each other. Whether people follow that advice is a different story.
Have lived here all my life, have voted Labor all my life – until now. VERY unhappy with the ALP both at State and Federal level, I am old school and we seem to be heading incrementally farther and farther to the left, we have abandoned our regional brothers and sisters and are no longer the party for the people and it is heartbreaking when you see what the ALP USED to be, and what we USED to stand for. As such I believe ONP will prosper, and this time they also get my vote – Get back to traditional Aussie values and give young Aussie families a chance.