I am late in noticing the Resolve Strategic poll of New South Wales state voting intention for Nine Newspapers, which follows the pollster’s usual pattern in combining responses from the state from the last two monthly national polls. One Nation is up three points to a new peak of 25%, while Labor returns to 29% after a three-point spike in March-April, the Coalition drops three to a new low of 23%, and the Greens gain one to 11%. Chris Minns’ lead over Kellie Sloane as preferred premier shifts from 38-18 to 36-16. The sample for the poll was 1100.
Also out this week was a rare Australian Capital Territory poll conducted by DemosAU, with results providing little indication that Labor’s 26-year hegemony is about to come to an end. Labor was on 32%, compared with 34.1% at the October 2024 election; the Liberals were on 21%, compared with 33.5%; and the Greens were on 11%, compared with 12.2%. One Nation, who did not contest the 2024 election, were on 14%. A generic independent category accounted for 19%, with 3% designated as others. When non-major party voters were asked who they were favoured to form government, 42% of the independent voters opted for Labor compared with only 18% for the Liberals. Chief Minister Andrew Barr was viewed positively by 33%, neutrally by 29% and negatively by 38%, while Liberal leader Mark Parton respectively scored 26%, 48% and 28%. The poll was conducted July 2 to 16 from a sample of 979.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of NSW or ACT politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I think the NSW Coalition are facing a wipe out outside of Sydney.
A 26 year “hegemony”? On these numbers, the ALP will need to deal with the Greens. These deals made life more expensive and unpleasant for the population.
It’s definitely looking like a mess. I’d be very surprised if the ALP didn’t win a second term, but the make up of parliament and legislating is going to be very problematic. It’s the same picture Australia-wide.
The issue is the ALP governs to the benefit of a relatively small proportion of the population, metropolitan folks who work in government jobs. Even when they try making decisions to benefit broader groups, in practice the benefits invariably flow to these same metropolitan populations with employment tied to the public sector.
At this rate, the Nation’s Capital may well be an electoral autocracy with Labor being in for so long. At least in Victoria, and South Australia there was 1 term for the Liberals in the 21st century.
Yes Wombat, and you’re no doubt aware that cohort of voters includes the tertiary institution employees. One should add the tertiary students and moderately to wealthy superannuated public servants. The ACT federal seats are locked in to the ALP, Greens and Teals.
If a centre/right party or coalition is ever in a position to do so, the Constitutionally required federal territory should be radically redefined so as to disperse the current ACT voters into NSW electorates.
Mr Mutter, our comments crossed.
I find it incredible that the ACT where, directly or indirectly, every person’s employment is dependent on Canberra being the seat of the Australia Government would have 14% of voters preference One Nation.
When Purling and Bananaby slash and gut and downsize or abolish government departments where do these fools believe that their ongoing employment and income is going to be sourced?
No Notion will this alone or enable the Liberals to implement such policies as a criteria for guaranteeing supply.
From memory, the public/private split in employment in Canberra is approximately 50:50. Canberra has a reasonably large and healthy private sector. It effectively acts as a regional centre for south eastern NSW and the Snowies. There even still a fair bit of agriculture left.
On last election exhaustion figures I make that a 56 to 44 2PP to Labor vs the LNP (and 55/45 on my invented exhaustion percentages for Lab vs ON).
CFMEU claiming scalps in the ACT. Credit to Yvette Berry for falling on her sword
The ACT Liberals excel at being a shambles… third raters prone to infighting rather than putting together an alternative set of thought out policies.
“CFMEU claiming scalps in the ACT. Credit to Yvette Berry for falling on her sword”
Wow, people actually taking responsibility for staff failures. Compare that to the roach scattering after Robodebt when everyone that was directly involved refused to take responsibility and instead heaped it entirely on a woman who had passed away.
Rough guesswork for the ACT, assuming the two existing independents win and no new ones get in (obviously impossible to know two years out):
Brindabella: ALP 2, Lib 2, ON 1 (Grn -1, ON +1)
Ginninderra: ALP 2, Lib 1, Grn 1, ON 1 (Lib -1, ON +1)
Kurrajong: ALP 2, Lib 1, Grn 1, Emerson (no change)
Murrumbidgee: ALP 2, Lib 1, ON 1, Carrick (Lib -1, ON +1)
Yerrabi: ALP 2, Lib 1, Grn 1, ON 1 (Lib -1, ON +1)
Total: ALP 10, Lib 6, ON 4, Grn 3, Ind 2. One Nation win a seat everywhere except Kurrajong, off the Libs except in Brindabella where the Greens get squeezed out instead. (The ON gains in Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi might be a bit wobbly thanks to the dreaded Ginninderra effect – could go Lib 2 ON 0.)
Not much difference to the current situation. Either a left-wing majority if the Greens want to be involved, or Labor just carry on in minority government.
NSW Resolve – Almost looking like a Victorian poll with the two major parties and One Nation all on primaries in the 20s, though NSW Labor should be re-elected given its clear lead over the NSW Coalition and the effect of OPV. No regional breakdown is provided, but if there’s a similar pattern to the recent NSW DemosAU poll, Labor should win seats off the Liberals in the inner suburbs, One Nation should take seats off both majors in regional areas and the outer suburbs should be very messy (ALP 29%, ONP 29%, L/NP 21%, GRN 15% in DemosAU). Chris Minns maintains a strong lead as preferred premier in Resolve.
ACT DemosAU – Agree with Bird of paradox’s assessment. ACT Labor will easily retain government on these numbers. The ACT Liberals will be worried they’re barely ahead of a generic independent.
The only hope for any sort of non-Labor government in the ACT in the foreseeable future would be if David Pocock made the decision to shift to territory politics. But it would be a tricky business in the early stages, and I can’t see that he’d be satisfied being the leader of what is basically a shire council with pretensions.
Bird of Paradox apparently Fiona Carrick may be happy serving just the one term, see if that changes or not
I’ll be disappointed if the Greens don’t win at least 4 again next time
Interesting article today on the ABC website re the fallout from Yvette Berry doing the right thing and resigning from cabinet and as deputy chief minister. Who takes over her ministries?
Based on last year’s federal results, if David Pocock ran in the ACT he’d drag at least half a dozen Pococklings in with him, which would probably end up going as well for him as it did for Nick Xenophon, Jacqui Lambie etc. He’d be much better off where he is now.
As for NSW: 6News on Twitter had an interview with the Green candidate for Summer Hill, who’s getting in nice and early. With the trouble Jo Haylen got herself into, that seat is somewhat vulnerable for Labor (despite the margin) and probably the main target for the Greens. Maybe Lismore if Janelle Saffin retires, and meanwhile they’ll have to hold Ballina with a retiring MP of their own – both those seats could become a crazy four-way tussle between ALP/Grn/Nat/ON.
Can Labor ever lose Government in the ACT? video on the political history of the ACT since self Government and its future ~13 mins. From a small youtuber (~3,300 subscribers) who posts about Australian politics.
https://youtu.be/ZHl9whhIWIQ?si=5kdRlMGD24K5fOus
Short answer: maybe.
I get that McKellism and Wranism require a right wing Labor leader…but does Minns have to be that right wing?
He definitely feels more conservative than Gladys
I was pleased to see Mandy Nolan put her hand up for Ballina, should hopefully help keep the seat Green
ICAC hearings into NSW Libs start this week and set to run for 8 weeks. Time to stock up on your preferred snacks! https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2026-media-releases/operation-rosny-public-inquiry-to-commence-into-allegations-involving-possible-offences-under-the-electoral-funding-act
A few things on the ACT – Craig Emerson and ‘Independents for Canberra’ basically ran as an extension of Pocock and won 1 seat, but received about 13% in Kurrajong and about 8.5% – Pocock’s vote is very personal to him.
I expect ONP to be strongest where the population leans older, whiter and less educated – which is Tuggeranong and Belconnen – Gungahlin skews more diverse than Canberra as a whole and Woden/Weston Creek is boosted by significant development. ONP would also be hurt by really bad preference flows, so my gut feel is they’d max out at 2 seats.
Most likely outcome is
Brindabella – ALP 2 – LIB 1 – ONP 1 – TBD 1
Ginninderra – ALP 2 – LIB 1 – ONP 1 – GRN 1
Kurrajong – ALP 2 – LIB 1 – IND 1 – GRN 1
Murrumbidgee – ALP 2 – LIB 1 – IND 1 – TBD 1
Yerrabi – ALP 2 – LIB 1 – GRN 1 – TBD 1
ALP 1O – LIB 5 – GRN 3 – IND 2 – ONP 2 – TBD 3
David Pocock’s main policy interests are federal – I can’t imagine hm being interested in running for the ACT Assembly.
From this distance (I grew up in Canberra but haven’t lived there for many years), Mark Parton comes across as the sort of Liberal leader who would play reasonably well in Canberra and seems to be steering clear of culture-war areas which are vote-losers in the ACT, but from this poll he doesn’t seem to be getting much traction. One of the big problems they have is attracting talent – there are people I knew from my time in Canberra who at that time (don’t know if they still are) were involved with the Liberal Party and are now prominent in local business/professional circles, but for someone like that to go into the Assembly would be a major financial hit, and if there isn’t a realistic pathway to becoming Chief Minister there aren’t many who would do that.
“ICAC hearings into NSW Libs start this week and set to run for 8 weeks. Time to stock up on your preferred snacks”
Let’s hope this time some of the corrupt brazen pricks end up in jail.
The stupid alert went for three rings only labor muppets!
VIC state election not good timing for labor as house prices have been designed by labors recent policies to go down this year and the couple of hundred thousand who took Up various state and federal rebate stunts will be torched on equity.aka be in negative with the threat of yet more interest rate rises.
Btw counter intuitive but outer suburbs migrants ignored on infrastructure and more, piling in adding stress will like one nation’s restrictions on population.
Ooops delete above wrong section.