Federal polls: DemosAU MRP poll and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest endeavour to project seat outcomes from a large-sample poll points to a hung parliament and a decimated Coalition.

DemosAU has published its quarterly MRP poll for Capital Brief, which combines demographic modelling with a large-sample survey of 9343. This has produced its most radical result yet with respect to One Nation, showing a median projection of 68 seats for Labor (down 15 on the first quarter MRP and 26 on the 2025 election), from a primary vote that drops three points to 26%; 60 for One Nation (up eight on the first quarter), who gain three to 30%; 13 for the Coalition (up four on the first quarter and down 30 on the 2025 election), who are steady on 21%; three for the Greens (up two on both the first quarter and the 2025 election result), who are up one to 13%; and six others (up one on the first quarter, but down six on 2025).

Compared with the first quarter result, One Nation is now rated the more likely winner in Labor-held Paterson, Eden-Monaro, Ballarat, McEwen, Petrie, Dickson, Moore, Pearce, Bass, Lyons and Lingiari, together with Liberal-held Cook; the Coalition has recovered front-runner position from One Nation in Casey, Flinders and Moncrieff, as has Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo; Liberal are now rated favourites over Labor in Chisholm; and the Greens are rated favourites in Labor-held Richmond and Brisbane. The survey period was May 27 to July 11; plentiful further detail is available from the pollster’s full report.

Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan result, which has Labor steady on 27.5%, One Nation up three to 25.5%, the Coalition down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 55-45 to 53.5-46.5, and its leads over the Coalition narrow from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on 2025 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1643.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

312 thoughts on “Federal polls: DemosAU MRP poll and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Andrew_Earlwood @ #298 Tuesday, July 28th, 2026 – 10:41 pm

    “ yabba says:
    Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 10:31 pm
    As a chemical engineer (Sydney, 1967), a long long time ago, who actually worked in the two Sydney oil refineries, the reason that they were shut down was that they were stuffed, as in utterly and completely fucked. Rooted, worn out. Not worth saving. The platformer catalyst was inneffectual, half of the bubble caps in the main distillation columns had turned to rubble, and the heat exchangers were leaking like sieve. As I said, fucked, rooted, sad, tired, no bloody good.”

    ______

    I guess the point though is why were they not maintained, with key items of kit routinely replaced if the refineries were so critical for fuel security. Somehow Labor is to blame in all of this. Just has to be. Because … vibes … something something 25 years in office, at least nearly as much as the LNP so that we can all sing ‘Lib/Lab. Same/same. All no good. Yadda yadda’.

    On a world scale, they were tiny. Pointless. Not worth the effort. And their discharges into waterways were foul. You’ve got to be kidding!

  3. …the reason that {Sydney oil refineries} were shut down was that they were stuffed, as in utterly and completely fucked.

    Those would be engineering terms 🙂 …

  4. “ On a world scale, they were tiny. Pointless. Not worth the effort. And their discharges into waterways were foul. You’ve got to be kidding!”

    ____

    So, that begs this question: is ‘fuel security’ best delivered for Australia by continuing to decarbonise the economy and doing deals with our major – mainly Asian – trading partners for secure imports of mineral fuels and other important ‘stuff’ like urea that cant be produced in sufficient volume for Australia’s domestic usage? If so, what exactly HAVE been the failings of either Labor or Liberal governments over the years and decades?

  5. Worth pointing out that it has been very hard to get private money to build new refineries in Australia for years. The oil industry has been moving to a smaller number of larger refineries since before became an issue. We are a comparative backwater on world trade routes. An investor gets more return building a bigger refinery in Singapore.

  6. Since 1970, Labor has been in power for just under 26 years, which is a little over one third of that time. The “Law of Thirds” seems to be a political axiom in Australia: “In the long term, time in power Federally in Australia splits one third to Labor, two thirds to parties of the Right”. It’s held since the current two and a bit party system consolidated in 1920. Whether it will continue remains to be seen.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood says Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 10:41 pm

    I guess the question though is why were they not maintained, with key items of kit routinely replaced if the refineries were so critical for fuel security?

    I would suggest Donald Horne might have had the answer to that question. There is after all a certain quality to Australian business executives.

  10. Steve777

    Similar in the UK

    Since Maggie’s win in 1979:-

    Tory rule 32 years, including the 5 year coalition with the LibDems (68%)
    Labour rule 15 years and counting (32%) .. will be 18 years/36% by the 2029GE

    From WW2 to Maggie ie the ‘postwar social democratic consensus’ period Labour did better:-

    Tory rule 17 years
    Labour rule 17 years including 3 years of the Lib-Lab pact

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