Newspoll: Labor 30, One Nation 30, Coalition 19 (open thread)

Newspoll bucks recent trends in finding One Nation as strong as ever, with Labor failing to sustain a gain from last time.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor losing a three-point gain it made in the last poll three weeks ago, putting them back at 30%. The uneven polling picture for One Nation is maintained with a one-point increase to 30%, only one point shy of its record result from the poll before last. The Coalition is up two to 19% after descending from 21% in April to 17% late last month. The Greens are down a point to 12%, having bumped around in a range from 11% to 13% since the start of the term.

Anthony Albanese is on 39% approval and 57% disapproval while Angus Taylor is on 30% and 51%, which in both cases are down one on approval and steady on disapproval. Albanese’s lead over Angus Taylor on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-36 to 44-36, and a three-way version of the question has Albanese down three to 46%, Taylor up two to 22%, and Pauline Hanson up one to 32%. Hanson is up a point on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1238.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

974 thoughts on “Newspoll: Labor 30, One Nation 30, Coalition 19 (open thread)”

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  1. subgeometersays:
    Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 8:15 pm
    New Chatgpt bot under testing busted out of its sandbox, then hacked a library of AI models looking for tools to steal to pass its evaluation, all without being tasked (so they say).
    =========================================

    Just got a picture of an AI system that didn’t do its homework before an exam and then copied answers over Grok’s shoulder to fail miserably.

  2. Mavis @ #940 Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026 – 7:12 pm

    ‘Pauline, if we have both been victims of domestic violence, why aren’t we on the same page?

    There is no “two-way street” when it comes to domestic violence but hidden within the controversy of Pauline Hanson’s words are two ideas that deserve to be judged. Sadly, in some landscapes of thriving populist chauvinism, these ideas can be adopted unchallenged.

    The first is that women can perpetrate domestic violence. They can. Men can be victims. Same-sex relationships can be violent. Abuse is not the exclusive preserve of one sex.

    The “two-way street” playbook has haunted domestic violence discourse for decades. It’s a line that sounds reasonable on the surface and that’s precisely what makes it so corrosive. It launders victim-blaming through the language of balance. At times, the public conversation has become trapped between slogans such as “believe women” on one side and “it takes two to tango” on the other.

    The conversation we actually need requires us to hold two ideas at once: that domestic violence can affect anyone, but that intimate-partner violence remains overwhelmingly gendered. Hanson’s foray into this space is presented as plain-speaking, but its effect is to legitimise one of the oldest and most damaging misconceptions about domestic violence.

    Think the Family Court is a disaster now? Hanson would make it worse.

    The appeal of that story is obvious. It’s easier to sit with. It doesn’t require us to confront uncomfortable truths about gendered violence, about the culture that enables it, or about the fact that most perpetrators are men and most victims are women and children.

    It lets some commentators avoid the harder, more specific work of understanding why abuse happens and what stops it. “Two-way street” is a rhetorical shrug dressed up as insight. I know first hand that this framing doesn’t describe domestic violence. It describes an excuse for it.

    When someone says a beating or a campaign of coercive control was somehow mutual or provoked, they are not offering a nuanced take on relationship dynamics. They are shifting responsibility away from the person who caused harm and onto the person who suffered it. This has happened publicly to me and was published in headlines. It does immeasurable damage.

    Survivors already carry enormous shame and self-doubt and abusers are often skilled at convincing their victims that they caused their own mistreatment or that if they’d just behaved differently none of it would have happened.

    The mechanics of abuse are not symmetrical. We continue to imagine domestic violence as a collection of bad incidents: A punch, a shove, a bruise. The far more sophisticated weapon is coercive control: the slow rearrangement of another person’s reality until leaving feels more dangerous than staying. Control can be financial before it is physical. Emotional before it is criminal. It isolates before it intimidates. It convinces intelligent, capable people that they are incapable. It erodes confidence so gradually that survivors can’t identify the precise moment they stopped believing they had choices.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pauline-we-ve-both-been-dv-victims-so-why-do-you-describe-it-so-differently-20260722-p60hot.html

    Although these concepts would be too difficult for Hanson to comprehend, they are nevertheless compelling & needed to be said.

    Thanks Mavis. That is an impressive piece – both intellectually compelling & because the author has the guts to put herself out there without privilege or persiflage.

  3. subgeometer says:
    Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 8:15 pm

    Claude Code began as a side project of Anthropic led by Boris Cherny, who speaks to us today about the early days of Claude Code and how he and his team approach building an agentic coding tool.
    Claude ..

    “We put a lot of effort into training, and it’s actually yielding really impressive results. Alignment has actually been going better than we expected as a result. The second layer is various guardrails.
    For example, when we run Claude Code at Anthropic, we run it within something we call a sandbox. In the sandbox, just make sure the model can only access the files that you give it access to. And it can only read the websites that you give it access to.
    So we kind of enforce this boundary around the model. And this is one of a few different guardrails that we put around the model. And by the way, our sandbox is open source.
    And it’s something that works with any agent because that’s actually pretty important. Like we want this to be something that-
    Does it ever breach the sandbox?
    It can. And this is something we look for all the time. So we do red teaming, we do penetration testing.
    So we actively try to find these breaches. And whenever we find one, we fix it as quickly as we can. But we generally want every model to be safer.”

    From Odd Lots: The Creator of Claude Code on The Hottest Piece of Software in the World, 20 Jul 2026
    https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-creator-of-claude-code-on-the-hottest-piece/id1056200096?i=1000777521827&r=902.057
    This material may be protected by copyright.

  4. The AFR have an article on the faceless men and women:

    Factions matter because they determine the composition of the cabinet, the National Executive, the National Executive Committee and the leadership of committees. The more numbers you have, the more sway you have over the policy direction of the party.

    Leigh, who was elected to parliament in 2010, is a rarity – he is not a member of any faction. He is also a case study in why not playing the factional game can hurt your prospects.

    https://archive.is/62nYm

  6. Steven.In.Mildurasays:
    Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 4:34 pm
    On the topic of newspapers and ‘papers of record’, Victoria once did have, IMHO, a proud newspaper heritage not only in the capital but also regional centres.
    _______________________
    Still have the Portland Observer and the Hamilton Spectator down in the South West.
    Previously printed by a local family, but is now part of the Star News Group.
    Local sport would be lost without it. Was always a big deal when you made the local.
    A good score at golf, or got in the best at footy. Got a bit of a write up once (with photo) after catching a big snapper off the Lee Breakwater

  7. President Trump wants FIFA President Gianni Infantino to be the next secretary-general of the United Nations, The Post has learned. Infantino, 56, grew close to Trump through organizing this year’s World Cup, with the Swiss-born soccer administrator bending over backward to charm and include Trump, even giving him FIFA’s inaugural Peace Prize in December.
    https://nypost.com/2026/07/21/us-news/trump-wants-to-nominate-fifa-boss-gianni-infantino-for-un-secretary-general-following-world-cup/

  8. Leigh – like myself – knew what the price of not joining a faction is. Everyone in Labor does.

    Any time he wants to, he could.

    Much more interesting to explore why he doesn’t.

    (It has some advantages. People in factions don’t tend to mingle with those in other factions – as someone who is factionless, you talk to everyone.

    Quite few times, that meant that a faction would approach me to recommend someone from another faction for a role.

    You can also end up in a ‘balance of power’ situation.

    And you still have a vote for important positions, so you get courted for that – if a faction knows I’m voting for one person, they can then afford to have one of their people vote for someone else they want elected.

    But it’s usually a principle thing…)

  11. Holden – Thankfully, Trump doesn’t have the ability to appoint the UN Secretary-general. He does have a veto however over the appointee (as does any of the 5 permanent members of UNSC).
    Most of the rest of the UN is hoping for a candidate from the Americas and there is expectation that the person will be a woman. Not sure that Trump will cope with a Latin American woman.
    So far there are 7 candidates: Michelle Bachelet (Chile), Maria Farnanda Esponiosa (Antigua & Barbuda), Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica), Carolyn Rodrigeus (Guyana), Rafael Grossi (Argentina) and Macky Sall (Burundi).

  12. PK must be expecting some excitement given she’s headed to the ALP National Conference

    I’m hoping for some old fashioned stoushes and people fighting for what they believe in but I won’t hold my breath

    Noting of course, that as I’ve said before, the Platform isn’t worth the paper it’s written on

  14. @Kirsdarke:

    That interested me enough to actually go look for myself.

    Deltapoll DID ask a question specifically naming Andy Burnham.

    Yougov didn’t.

    What I do not know is what order they asked the questions in. It isn’t necessarily the order presented in the summary sheet.

    They also do not disclose if there was any kind of preamble to the questions.

    The mere fact that Deltapoll specifically name Andy Burnham as “future prime minister” to ask about his favorability, and that their poll is so much more favourable to Labour than YouGov which doesn’t name Burnham in their questions, does make me think that’s probably the source of the discrepancy.

    The next round or two of polling once it filters through even Joe Notpayingattentiontopolitics that Burnham is the Prime Minister and Starmer is gone, that will be more decisive obviously as far as the kind of bounce that Burnham is generating.

  15. Oil futures are increasing at a rate, Bond Yields are similarly increasing and Stock Markets are under pressure

    Globally

    This is hang on by your fingertips stuff

    And we are all paying including because of the impact on confidence (so discretionary spending) impacting retailers

    Plus the impacts of COVID are still in evidence across supply chains – including particularly in the construction industry and building components

    What we see now courtesy of certain individuals could not be happening at a worse time

    And Central Banks hovering eying impacts in inflation (and lifting interest rates following well worn protocols)

    The increases in Bond Yields including on Futures Markets is troubling (unless you are mortgage free with money in the bank – but even then the pressures on Equity Markets is a worry as is the Yield up price down bond market investments, so both significant negatives to wealth accrual noting also that debt levels are impacting on house prices for sellers

    Then we get to what is the nuclear capacity of these deranged players and will they resort to using nuclear weapons

    Hopefully polling in the USA and in Israel ahead of November will see the incumbents panic and reverse course (noting the Israel government will only go harder thinking this is a winning strategy as it has been over the past 80 years)

  16. And I will add into the 2 way street (because much is hidden)

    With 2 very young children pre primary school and just in primary school, I threatened that if I ever again witnessed those children being hit again I would take the matter to the authorities

    To cut to the chase

    The Family Report Ordered and prepared by the Family Court of Australia including the children told the Counsellor that they had been told not to tell their father of being hit because “it would break the marriage”

    After reading that (in my barristers chambers) I just collected my children from their school, took them home and hugged them

    There was a raft of false allegation made against me

    Including that I had sexually abused my daughter made to 3 different jurisdictions across 2 States (so a knowingly false allegation made to Police who interrogated my daughter but, after I presented correspondence to them refused to lay charges in regard false and knowingly false allegation being made to them)

    Anyway I obtained the custody of my children in those proceedings, have never seen my former wife since and life has gone on – and most successfully especially given I gave up employment to parent my children (and attempt to recover them from the trauma they had endured)

    I was assisted financially by my employers putting the allegations to me in the work place – and taking them to Court including that costs were awarded against them

    Hanson has a point

    But, being Hanson, she has mangled it to the detriment of fathers and their children

  17. fuck me David. That sounds terrible. It makes me realize how lucky I am to have never experienced such things… or at least not yet. Seen all parts of it over the years though, from the best, to the absolute worst. This polarization helps no-one. It’s rarely the ‘good’ people and the ‘bad’ people. That’s the thing that much of this media is trying to facilitate. It’s mostly good people in my experience.

  18. Does anyone else remember M. Ward of the “Men’s Confraternity” who wrote shitloads of cranky letters to the ed in the West back in the 90s? Some of this is reminding me of that.

  20. Cartoon Catch-up

    Rowe

    Wilcox

    Pope

    Katauskas

    Golding

    Mark David

    Megan Herbert

    Harry Bruce

    Cartoons from Iffland

    Badiucao

    Christopher Downes The Mercury

    Rod Emmerson NZ Herald

    North American Cartoons

    De Adder

    Weurker

    Heller

    The New Yorker

  21. Virtually every phone in the country will blare an emergency siren at 2pm AEST on Monday 27 July, as part of the first Australia-wide test of a new national warning system called AusAlert.
    Most phones, and some smartwatches and tablets, will receive a pop-up notification and an alert sound that cannot be silenced – even if your device is on “do not disturb” or silent mode.
    The warning system will be deployed to prepare Australians for fires, floods, terrorist incidents or health emergencies – but it has raised questions about regional access and the risk it poses to women and children experiencing domestic and family violence.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/22/ausalert-test-sound-national-alert-emergency-warning-system-date

  22. World News & Politics Patrol:

    JD Vance accuses Israel of ‘manipulating’ US public opinion to prolong Iran war: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1m107yj327o

    Canada cancels joint bridge-opening event with US after Trump announces tariffs: https://apnews.com/article/canada-us-gordie-howe-bridge-trump-9327c97c42ca4a2343f337c7b30e7375

    Marco Rubio tells diplomats to play down talk of American tech ‘kill switch’: https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/marco-rubio-tells-diplomats-play-down-talk-american-tech-kill-switch-2026-07-22/

    Japan PM Takaichi’s ‘0-3 hours sleep’ post draws criticism across party lines: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260722/p2a/00m/0na/005000c

    Trump: US will attack Iranian bridge, power plant for every ship targeted in Hormuz: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-us-will-attack-iranian-bridge-power-plant-every-ship-targeted-hormuz-2026-07-22/

    Pakistan seeks $10 billion fund from US after mediating Iran talks: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-seeks-10-billion-us-backstop-facility-boost-reserves-source-says-2026-07-21/

    Ukrainian drones hit Russian online giant retailer Wildberries for second time: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c36de9n4pxpo

    Ex-CEO of Southern Water among four charged with conspiracy to defraud: https://news.sky.com/story/ex-ceo-of-southern-water-among-four-charged-with-conspiracy-to-defraud-13565944

    McConnell’s Kentucky Republicans Confronted on Disappearance: https://www.thedailybeast.com/mcconnells-kentucky-republicans-confronted-on-disappearance/

    Hegseth Is Demanding US Households Pay $5,000 More Per Year to Fund the Pentagon, Economist Says: https://www.commondreams.org/news/pete-hegseth-budget-request

    Kelly: Military ‘doesn’t need more testosterone, it needs better leadership’: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5981471-kelly-opposes-hegseth-testosterone-screenings/

    The White House has stacked billions in oil revenue after toppling Venezuelan despot Nicolas Maduro in January. Where has it all gone? https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hit-with-demand-for-answers-over-secret-13b-raked-in-from-venezuelan-oil-revenues/

    Pete Hegseth’s pastor says the punishment for being gay in the “ideal world” is execution: https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/07/pete-hegseths-pastor-says-the-punishment-for-being-gay-in-the-ideal-world-is-execution/

    Trump claims fallen soldiers said ‘we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon’: https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-honor-heroes-attend-dignified-transfer-dover-air/story?id=134979766

    US to announce deal allowing Saudi Arabia a nuclear programme: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj03r59z73po

    Daniel Siad, modelling scout linked to Jeffrey Epstein, found dead at Paris home: https://news.sky.com/story/modelling-scout-linked-to-jeffrey-epstein-found-dead-in-paris-home-13565917

    More than 11,500 cyclosporiasis cases reported in 41 states: CDC: https://abcnews.com/Health/11500-cyclosporiasis-cases-reported-41-states-cdc/story?id=134979908&cid=social_twitter_wnt

  24. I’m sure it’s been said before, but it’s ironic that most enjoyers of this blog are probably far less able to anticipate the political impact of things like leadership changes than the average person on the street.

    By coming here, you self identify as a ‘non-representative individual’.

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