The Sydney Morning Herald today reports on the bi-monthly New South Wales state polling numbers from its regular Resolve Strategic series, in a report that does not appear to be online at the time of writing, although the results can be found on the website’s Resolve Monitor feature. This records little change on the previous result, with Labor unchanged at 29%, One Nation unchanged at 25%, the Coalition up a point to 24%, and the Greens unchanged at 11%. With Mike Newman now anointed as One Nation’s prospective parliamentary leader, there is now a three-way preferred premier question which has Chris Minns at 27%, Kellie Sloane at 15% and Newman at 8%, compared with Minns’ 36-16 lead over Sloane two months ago.
The poll combines the New South Wales results from the pollster’s last two monthly national surveys for an overall sample of 1100. The 550 respondents to the more recent monthly survey were asked about the federal-state agreement on tighter gun laws, finding 63% in support with 19% opposed.
Further New South Wales state election news:
• The Australian reported on Tuesday on a poll of 1000 respondents conducted for the Minerals Council of Australia by Insightfully, which had Labor and One Nation each on 29%, with the Coalition on 18% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted August 5 to 12 from a sample of 1000.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reported a fortnight ago that a “recent private poll” in Cessnock, which will be contested for One Nation by leadership hopeful Mike Newman, had One Nation leading Labor by 50% to 24%.
• James Griffin, who succeeded Mike Baird as Liberal member for Manly in 2017, announced a fortnight ago that he will not seek re-election. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports candidates for Liberal preselection could include upper house member Natalie Ward; Adelaide Cuneo, who “works in the energy sector”; and Northern Beaches deputy mayor Georgia Ryburn. Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Elouise Massa, who has campaigned for a government takeover of Northern Beaches Hospital since failures were identified by a review into the death of her son, will run as an independent.
• A week on from James Griffin’s announcement, Liberal colleague Alister Henskens announced that he too will bow out at the election as the member for one of the party’s safe seats. Henskens entered parliament as the member for Ku-ring-gai in 2015, transferring to the successor seat of Wahroonga after it was abolished in 2023.
• The Byron Shire Echo reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain has won a Labor preselection ballot for the seat of Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Henskens is northern suburbs not eastern.
The main SMH article is now online.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/voters-deliver-verdict-on-guns-as-political-division-widens-20260918-p60y9d.html
NSW Labor should be re-elected on Resolve’s numbers, though it would be helpful to see a regional breakdown.
Whereas the primaries in the Insightfully poll could produce a very messy parliament.
I’d probably expect Labor’s vote to be distributed well enough to hold government in OPV, but there ought to be concern as to where its been lost – presumably in the peri-urban or regional areas to ONP, but are they getting a swing in the inner metro areas to challenge the Liberals? I can imagine a big chunk of the lost Coalition vote is in the rurals and outer suburbs to ONP but is there an SA-style movement from LIB to ALP in inner Sydney as well?
Looking forward to getting more detailed polling as the campaign continues, should concern Labor that ONP and the Coalition are getting nearly 50% between them
newyboy and anyone who knows about regional Labor holds
Why did Cessnock went pear shaped for Labor (ON 50%, Labor 24%)?
Is any regional Labor seat safe anymore?
How can NSW Labor get most seats in NSW parliament let alone majority?
Minns approval rating dropped by 8%, going all to NSW ON leader, who is an unknown? What is happening?
People in Cessnock didn’t leave the party, the party left them
Cessnock has almost certainly a ‘Red One Nation’ Voter base (leans Labor economically, let and let live for Gays (supports Gay Marriage) but also nationalist being pro-Jan 26, voted No to the Voice and believes in the Anglo-Celtic Default) indicated from a very High No Vote for the Voice Referendum with at 72-75% No Vote under current boundaries. Secret Harbour by election has indicated as they had around 70% No Vote for the Voice.
Remember NSW has optional preferential voting for state elections, so some of that One Nation vote won’t necessarily go back to the Coalition in terms of 2nd preferences.
The new NSW One Nation leader is getting way more publicity and airtime on radio than Kelly Sloan – would the Liberals be comfortable with this?
My guess is another Labor minority government elected next March, Labor loses Cessnock and Camden but gains Ryde and one or two other seats in the Sydney metro area. Miranda is a chance, Simon Earl running again, he almost won it last time. Terrigal is similar, same Labor candidate from last time nominated again, he was ahead on election night but got swamped by postals and absentees.
In the Hunter and Central Coast, only Newcastle, Charlestown, Lake Macquarie and Terrigal are probably safe from a major incursion. The first two because they both have parts that are ‘inner city’ and upper middle class – sectors not naturally attractive to One Nation, Lake Macquarie by having Greg Piper as an independent MP, and Terrigal because its coastal areas are upper middle class and a more distant extension of the North Shore. However – Upper Hunter, Cessnock, Maitland, Port Stephens, Wallsend, Swansea, Wyong, The Entrance and Gosford could all see major ON inroads if not wins. With the exception of Upper Hunter, all are Labor seats. OPV and the distaste of some Liberal voters to preference ON will at the least provide a buffer. Otherwise it could get a tad ugly. The only solace to Labor is that they might be able to pick up Terrigal in the process.
“The main SMH article is now online.”
Someone needs to fix their graphs on the polls. They have IND and OTH both on 5% but IND has a bigger bar. And their poll adds up to 99%. Perhaps the poll should have IND at 6%.
My estimates of a 2PP accounting for vote exhaustion are:
* Labor 54.65 to ON 44.55, with an estimated exhaustion based on last election but with some tweaking to reduce it. For example I can’t see Greens voters exhausting anywhere near as much in a Labor vs ON contest, for example.
* ALP 55 to LNP 45, directly using last election exhaustion.
@ blackburnpseph, I would say Wallsend is probably not going to fall to One Nation as the Labor margin is just very big to begin with and the No Vote to the Voice was not as high with polling booths mainly just around the national average or even below.