Federal polling: DemosAU, Morgan, One Nation breakdowns (open thread)

The Coalition takes a big hit in one poll and a smaller one in another, while Roy Morgan offers detail on One Nation support by country of birth.

The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief departs from the pack in recording a five-point drop in Coalition support to 20%, with Labor up two to 28%, One Nation up two to 26% and the Greens up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on his positive rating to 29%, up one on neutral to 26% and down two on negative to 45%; Angus Taylor is entirely unchanged at 23%, 50% and 27%; and Pauline Hanson is up two to 32%, up one to 24% and down three to 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 36%, Taylor down two to 21% and Hanson up three to 25%.

The poll also finds 65% agreeing that social media platforms “should be legally required to reduce risks” compared with 22% for an alternative option of them being “free to decide”. It was conducted last Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1583; extensive breakdowns of the voting intention results are as usual featured in the report on the pollster’s website.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two to 25%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 25%, the Coalition down two to 21.5%, and the Greens up one-and-a-half to 16%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5, and its leads over the Coalition are out from 53-47 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted September 7 to 13 from a sample of 1583.

Also out from Morgan this week was data compiled from its polling throughout this year breaking out One Nation support by country of birth. While many of the sub-samples would have been exceedingly small, it paints an interesting overall picture, having support for the party at 36% among those born in South Africa, around 30% among continental Europeans, around 25% among those born in Australia, the UK and New Zealand, and lower elsewhere, although the party managed 17% among those born in the Middle East compared with around 10% among those born in eastern and southern Asia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

770 thoughts on “Federal polling: DemosAU, Morgan, One Nation breakdowns (open thread)”

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  1. The Wombat @ 8:02 pm

    Just a lesbian who likes guns. But it’s more defined by not being a “sword lesbian” who are more inclined to fantasy, cosplay kinda stuff. A gun lesbian is going to be dressed in military style tactical gear, versus a sword lesbian who might favour sometimes mucking around as a a Viking shield maiden. Obviously, as a middle aged male wombat, I’m completely all over this stuff.

    Umm. Are you sure all these women are “Lesbians”?

    Why shouldn’t women like guns, and swords.

    When I was growing up in the Blue Mountains, we had guns at home. And I shot those guns. It was something we did back then. Being able to shoot seemed an important skill.

    And sometimes we shot rabbits, and cooked them. Because it was within living memory for my family that people, during the depression, and WWII, did not have enough to eat, particularly when it came to protein.

    Anyway, this is the book by my very good friend:
    https://www.booktopia.com.au/great-australian-rabbit-stories-jenny-quealy/book/9780733328084.html

    Us women do what we have to, to feed our families.

  2. Milko, my education on the topic was primarily in response to a photo of my daughter wandering off to shoot a deer. I completely understand what you mean, I’ve made very sure my daughter can do exactly the same thing, should the need arise. Because one day it will, absolutely guaranteed. Hopefully that time might not be for a very long time, not in my daughters lifetime, but at the moment I’m not sure it won’t be next week.

    Amusingly, last time my daughter was home she was trying to talk me into buying her a katana, so maybe she swings both ways.

  3. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 8:29 pm
    D&M
    Yep. Hunger in the Great Depression was the genuine article.
    _____________________________
    How did you get through it?

  4. Re the use of “alleged”: the ABC is reporting – in the case earlier discussed – that a person has been “charged with alleged murder”. That’s plainly nonsense. The charge is murder.

    In reporting the event, a murder is alleged, but the charge itself is murder and should be reported that way.

  5. Newspoll, 20 September

    Primary votes: ON 30% (unchanged), ALP 27% (−2), Coalition 19% (unchanged), Greens 13% (unchanged), others 11% (+2).

    Leader satisfaction:

    * Albanese: 35% satisfied (−3), 62% dissatisfied (+3); net −27 (−6).
    * Taylor: net −15 (+2).
    * Hanson: 44% satisfied (−3), 51% dissatisfied (+3); net −7 (−6).

    Better PM: Albanese 42% (−2), Taylor 41% (+6).

    Three-way preferred PM: Albanese 44% (−2), Hanson 32% (+1), Taylor 24% (+1).

    Fieldwork: 14–17 September; sample 1,244. No 2PP figure reported in the article.

  6. Labor’s primary vote has collapsed to a near record low of 27 per cent for the first time since 2012 – down from 37 per cent in September last year – as nearly two-thirds of Australians say they aren’t satisfied with Anthony Albanese’s performance.

    Amid expectations of two further rate hikes by Christmas and calls for the Albanese government to intervene on soaring petrol prices, an exclusive Newspoll has ­revealed major blows for Labor and the Prime Minister, who will spend the week in New York for the UN General Assembly.

    The Newspoll, conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights between Monday and Thursday last week, showed core support for Labor fell from 29 per cent to 27 per cent, marking the lowest level of core support for the ALP since April 2012. The lowest ever primary vote recorded by Labor was 26 per cent in September 2011 during Julia Gillard’s three-year tenure as prime minister.

  7. 62% dissatisfied. Heading into Starmer territory.

    Thanks GovNerd.

    One Nation steady and Labor at 27%. This is Julia Gillard turf circa 2012.

  8. BW

    D&M
    Yep. Hunger in the Great Depression was the genuine article.

    In Jen’s book she talked about how the rabbits kept the bush population fed during the Great Depression.

    I also now spend a considerable part of my time in the Dordogne, in France. There is a reason why hunting and fishing are considered essential skills there. Under the Vichy and the Nazi occupation, the land was asset stripped. A friend recently showed me the proclamation about the Nazi’s taking over her father’s factory in Bordeaux.

    So what am I saying?

    Being able to fend for yourself is actually really important. Whether it is invasion, scarcity, or whatever.

    But, really, how much firepower do you need to shoot a rabbit or a deer?

  9. The combined major party primary vote hit a new record low in the latest Newspoll, with 46 per cent of Australians supporting Labor (27 per cent) and the ­Coalition (19 per cent), down from 66.4 per cent at last year’s federal election. One Nation’s primary vote remained at 30 per cent, the Greens stayed at 13 per cent and others increased from 9 to 11 per cent. While Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s net approval rating improved to minus 15, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s performance slipped to minus seven, with 44 per cent of voters satisfied with her performance, 51 per cent ­dissatisfied and 5 per cent ­uncommitted.

    Half or more of the population is currently dissatisfied with the performance of all three leaders. After ramping up the Coalition’s attacks on Mr Albanese’s character, Mr Taylor edged closer to his rival in a one-on-one contest measuring who voters think would make the better prime minister, with 42 per cent of voters backing the Labor leader and 41 per cent supporting the Liberal leader.

    But after adding Senator Hanson to a three-way contest, Mr ­Albanese leads with 44 per cent of support, ahead of the One Nation leader on 32 per cent and Mr Taylor on 24 per cent.

  10. Hard Being Green says:
    Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 9:07 pm
    Feels like Labor is headed for sub 25, the Albanese factor is playing a HUGE influence
    ================
    Heck – they’re just about there. 25% on Morgan last week and now this.

  11. Both Albanese and Taylor need to go. The Coalition has Hastie, but i can’t see that the ALP has an obvious solution. HBG, I completely agree, Albanese is very much the problem for the ALP again, as with football tickets or Qantas lounge, i suspect this golf club palaver is really damaging.

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