Federal polling: DemosAU, Morgan, One Nation breakdowns (open thread)

The Coalition takes a big hit in one poll and a smaller one in another, while Roy Morgan offers detail on One Nation support by country of birth.

The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief departs from the pack in recording a five-point drop in Coalition support to 20%, with Labor up two to 28%, One Nation up two to 26% and the Greens up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on his positive rating to 29%, up one on neutral to 26% and down two on negative to 45%; Angus Taylor is entirely unchanged at 23%, 50% and 27%; and Pauline Hanson is up two to 32%, up one to 24% and down three to 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 36%, Taylor down two to 21% and Hanson up three to 25%.

The poll also finds 65% agreeing that social media platforms “should be legally required to reduce risks” compared with 22% for an alternative option of them being “free to decide”. It was conducted last Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1583; extensive breakdowns of the voting intention results are as usual featured in the report on the pollster’s website.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two to 25%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 25%, the Coalition down two to 21.5%, and the Greens up one-and-a-half to 16%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5, and its leads over the Coalition are out from 53-47 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted September 7 to 13 from a sample of 1583.

Also out from Morgan this week was data compiled from its polling throughout this year breaking out One Nation support by country of birth. While many of the sub-samples would have been exceedingly small, it paints an interesting overall picture, having support for the party at 36% among those born in South Africa, around 30% among continental Europeans, around 25% among those born in Australia, the UK and New Zealand, and lower elsewhere, although the party managed 17% among those born in the Middle East compared with around 10% among those born in eastern and southern Asia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

203 thoughts on “Federal polling: DemosAU, Morgan, One Nation breakdowns (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 5
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  1. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 2:25 pm

    There is no such thing as a sustainable car – ICE or EV.

    ————

    Correct. Stop wasting money on freeways and build busways and train lines instead. This will leave roads nice and empty for people like me, who require them to make money.

    Most of you can then scrap your pointless little electric cars and catch the bloody bus to work.

  2. Douglas and Milko says:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 1:45 pm

    I do not know why the Guardian always picks some professional middle-class person for these type of articles. There would be many people who are struggling simply because of inflation (food, Petrol et.) plus interest rate rises.

    Yep. …and where they live in homes where the ceiling is a standard height and their personal housing footprint approximates that of, say, Japan.

    Our per capita housing footprint is around nine times as big as that of Japan.

  3. Rex, News Corp understood perfectly well that they were insulting their readers’ intelligence when they hatched “Airbus Albo”. If you had anything other than shit between your ears, you would never have gone within a million miles of it.

  4. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 1:45 pm
    Zwacktyld

    Boerwar can speak for himself, but I think if you read the article linked, the lady who was the focus of the article had split from her partner, so was now trying to cover what was meant to be a 2 income mortgage with 1 income (of course that is going to be tough). Her main option should have been to sell out when the relationship broke down. Complaining that her situation was somehow anyone other than her and her ex’s fault is a bit rich (And as BW said, the place had 10-12 foot ceilings – not exactly a shack)

    That is what I thought. How (not hope!!) many of us here have had to sell a house because of a relationship breakdown? It sucks, but most people do not blame the government.

    I do not know why the Guardian always picks some professional middle-class person for these type of articles. There would be many people who are struggling simply because of inflation (food, Petrol et.) plus interest rate rises.

    D&M
    That is the technique used n newspapers and TV stations in Australia to make up a crisis.
    All the Australian MSM does that. No exceptions.
    Unfortunately, a lot Australian punters believe that sort of stuff.

  5. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 2:32 pm

    I’m waiting patiently for SF to get stuck into the need to ground airline activity if the world is to get anywhere near zero net fifty..

    ————-

    Remember way back when climate change became a known problem and people of your generation decided to do fuck all about it?

    If you promise to give away all of your petrochemical manufactured life possessions to a homeless person, I’ll promise to never take an overseas holiday again.

  6. Strange Fruit says:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 2:44 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 2:32 pm

    I’m waiting patiently for SF to get stuck into the need to ground airline activity if the world is to get anywhere near zero net fifty..

    ————-

    Remember way back when climate change became a known problem and people of your generation decided to do fuck all about it?

    If you promise to give away all of your petrochemical manufactured life possessions to a homeless person, I’ll promise to never take an overseas holiday again.

    You really are a smarmy dill. I have personally planted enough trees to cover a life time’s emissions several times over. I am in the carbon black. I don’t fly because of the emissions. I do my shopping on foot. I wear out my clothese. Yadda, yadda, yadda.

    I know that I can’t overcome the massive investment by the fossil fuel industry in trying to delay or stop climate action. Think of it as a widow’s mite.

    Of course the fossil fuel profiteers can rely on all sorts of blustering loudmouths to run their lines for them for free.

  7. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 2:30 pm
    Houses and divorce.

    Divorce is a well-worn pathway to poverty.

    Who knew?

    BW
    People will say “you are now opposed divorce. How are you a Labor voter”.
    Just joking.
    I also oppose a divorce because of ‘difference of opinions’ or ‘no fault divorce’. OMG, I would have voted against Whitlam Labor.
    Marriage is not some ‘one night stand’. It is commitment 2 people made to each stay with each other “to hold from this day forward, for better, for worse, for richer, for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love and to cherish, till death do us part,”

  8. It is common for people to invest jointly when they are together. There are lifetime advantages in this. Various rules are stacked in favour of couples who stay together.

    When they part, the advantages don’t just stop.

    Sometimes, because investments have to be wound down before their maturation time has come, disadvantages accrue.

  9. BK says:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 3:06 pm

    Yes, BW. Mr Ellis might be inclined to offer himself for a video appearance now.

    Is he somewhere safe like Lebanon?

  10. nath @ #126 Friday, September 18th, 2026 – 1:34 pm

    Mostly Interestedsays:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 1:17 pm
    The choices these days are pay $700-$800 a week on rent, or pay $1k-$1.2k a week on a mortgage.
    __________
    30% of the population own their home outright.

    Strangely this 30% dont get daily news stories published about them, except when their children happen to be in the other 70% of the population.

  11. BW
    And earlier on he placed poor Anita under the bus when he said she provided virtually nothing. And, by inference, it pushed dear Charles further under the bus.

  12. Thomas Brian Mutter
    That would be a great result for the Greens, maybe they can add Albert Park.

    Frankston is a toss up between Labor, ON and Liberal Party.

    Teals are unlikely to win Hawthorn, can see the Greens coming second behind the Liberal Party.

  13. … Keating said Australia’s increasing enmeshment within the US military, especially through Aukus, was seeing Australia’s “sovereignty effectively being shredded”.

    “Australia is now getting locked in and locked up to the military prerogatives of the United States.”
    ….

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/18/paul-keating-aukus-locking-australia-into-us-china-war

    Been saying this for a while.

    We’re going down the wrong track.

  14. D&M

    I do not know why the Guardian always picks some professional middle-class person for these type of articles. There would be many people who are struggling simply because of inflation (food, Petrol et.) plus interest rate rises.

    Professional middle-class people read the Guardian. The battlers generally do not.

    That’s the paradox of contemporary left-wing politics. It’s a performance carried out on behalf of people who mostly never show up to watch it.

  15. “This is my prediction for the 2026 Victorian state election as of right now.”

    Thomas, Interesting, but what is your basis for these predictions? There seems to be so much to disagree with.

  16. I wonder why?

    President Donald Trump may be omnipresent in American politics, but one place you won’t find him during the midterm elections: starring in Republican TV ads.

    A new CNN analysis shows that Trump is a bit player – often seldom mentioned at all – in a blitz of Republican messaging increasingly filling the airwaves in some of the biggest races of the year. Since the start of September, Democrats have been much more likely to invoke Trump’s name than Republicans…

    It’s a striking contrast from Trump’s plea to make the midterm elections all about him, as he repeatedly tells his supporters: “Pretend that I’m on the ballot.” His near absence from GOP advertising underscores the degree to which he has become a political liability, with his national approval rating just 36%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/17/politics/donald-trump-republican-ads-cnn-analysis

  17. Ven:

    I also oppose a divorce because of ‘difference of opinions’ or ‘no fault divorce’. OMG, I would have voted against Whitlam Labor.
    Marriage is not some ‘one night stand’. It is commitment 2 people made to each stay with each other “to hold from this day forward, for better, for worse, for richer, for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love and to cherish, till death do us part,”

    People change. They can grow apart and out of love with each other. Some wind up in relationships with abusive psychos who don’t reveal their true nature until it is too late. Others can just be good people who lose their passion for each other and end up resenting and endlessly hurting each other as a result.

    It is utterly insane to expect people to remain in a union forever, no ifs or buts. It is bad for them, and even worse for any children they may have. There is zero rational reason for enforcing such a rule besides the profoundly arrogant expectation that others must live their lives according to your own values.

  18. The funny thing about the Ed Sheeran carry on is that if there is one major musician who is going to be the least effected by having supporting musicians quit on them, it’s Ed Sheeran. He can do a full concert by himself. He’d probably save millions by the sound of it too.

  19. I was fascinated that Paloma Faith says ‘free Palestine’ to her children every night before bed.

    I think she’s expecting a lot from a baby, a toddler and a ten year old.

  20. meher b

    Professional middle-class people read the Guardian. The battlers generally do not.

    That’s the paradox of contemporary left-wing politics. It’s a performance carried out on behalf of people who mostly never show up to watch it.

    Yep!

  21. Socratessays:
    Friday, September 18, 2026 at 3:44 pm
    Hugh White has a piece on AUKUS in a Conversation podcast today that summarises the five year history of AUKUS. He describes it as “barking mad”.
    _________
    I’ve been saying that for 5 years too.

  22. I have a feeling that if One Nation is getting 22-23% of the vote, a lot of it is going to be concentrated in Provincial and Outer Suburban seats, and since Labor is in such a weak position, they’ll sweep the vast majority of those seats. And that weakness in the Labor vote is also why I think the Greens would sweep inner city Melbourne. Hawthorn is a dark horse seat that I have going to the Teals just because of how social progressive it is.

  23. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock said inflation in Australia was “too high” as she prepares to consider lifting interest rates for the fourth time this year

    Apparently inflation is we peasants fault for spending too much and so we need more whippings and people out of work. Nothing at all to do with the Orange Menace and what he has done to global oil prices and all that flows from that. It’s your fault ya spendthrifts.

  24. Thomas Brian Mutter, Friday, September 18, 2026 at 4:06 pm:
    ———————————-

    TBM – I disagree that a ON PV of 22-23% entails that it is concentrated in any particular classification of seats. If we take the BludgerTrack PV swings: having the +20.6% swing to ON occurring alongside -7.2% from Labor and -10.5% from the Coalition (with the rest coming from Others), indicates to me that ON’s vote is more likely to be concentrated in Coalition seats than in Labor ones. But even then, it’s not certain.

  25. Inflation may well be the fault of Trump, but the ability to reduce it requires the population to reduce their spending through increasing the cost of their debt.

    That my dears is the way.

  26. Pegasus, it’s a bit of a stretch to assert that copy&pasting stuff is authorship.

    Edit: Ooops! I now see it’s Flanagan who is the author; not you. 🙂

  27. TBM
    Thanks for your response, I do not disagree that the ON vote would seemingly be concentrated in the Outer Suburban, Provincial and Regional seats, my disagreement is with the seats you identified. It is hard to say with any certainty which seats ON will win but I would count them as ‘Possible’ . In the possible category:
    – Murray Plains
    – Ripon
    – Eureka
    – Melton
    – Sunbury
    – Lara
    – South Barwon
    – Bellarine
    – Yan Yean
    – Carrum
    – Frankston
    – Pakenham
    – Hastings
    – Bass
    – Morwell
    Seats such as Cranbourne or the Narre Warrens are just too Non Anglo to have a substantial ON vote.
    I also think that Hawthorn will be a Liberal retain – John Pessutto is well liked locally, and Box Hill could be a Lib pick up. Can’t see Ivanhoe being a Liberal pickup – the base Greens vote is too high and Labor have a very strong base in West Heidelberg.
    I do agree that the Greens can pick up Prahran, Footscray and possibly Northcote or Pascoe Vale but Preston being close was a bit of a fluke last time.

  28. An RBA Governor has commented that GLOBAL interest rates are closer to normal than they have recently been and since the GFC

    So the balance in favour of borrowers has amended to neutral across borrowers and depositors

    I repeat, it is not the interest rate settings the media and vested interests bang on about, it is the size of the debt being carried by a cohort only of Australian citizens

    Interest rate settings have been accommodative since the GFC then the Pandemic – so it is well and truly the time to reward savers with equal consideration in setting interest rates

    If anyone has not taken advantage of the past 19 years to use interest rate settings to pay down debt, more fool them

  29. The current bout of inflation is not being caused by wage increases or excessive discretionary spending, it’s mainly increases in fuel prices, which for those who need their car for work (the majority for commuting and many for work travel) is definitely not discretionary. It’s not as if everyone’s taking long motoring holidays. In fact fuel price increases would act pretty much like an interest rate increase in the way it soaks up money that then is no longer for discretionary spending.

    Interest rate increases are a blunt instrument at the best of times, but especially under current conditions.

  30. ‘You can’t put everything on immigration’: The suburbs at breaking point

    https://archive.is/vOxcO#selection-197.0-197.72

    “In suburbs groaning under these pressures, One Nation’s appeal is not necessarily its stance on immigration. It’s anger at a raft of other policy areas that have no easy solution.

    “The overwhelming majority of people who have moved to One Nation over the last eight months, nine months, tell us they’ve done so because they’re sick of the two-party system,” says RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras.

    The rapidly changing demographics of these areas on the fringes of Sydney and Melbourne, where more than 50 per cent of residents were born outside of Australia, mean that if One Nation is going to take any of these seats, then this election is likely to be its only chance.

    “If they have a really good day, they could pick up some peri-urban electorates, both from Labor and the Coalition,” says Samaras. “But it’s always going to be challenging for them because the group of Australians that provide those gains are proportionately declining in number every year.”

  31. David
    The cash rate is now at a healthy level and 3.5% inflation, while on the high side is okay but the problem is lower inflation and lower rates created the expectation they were normal and policy settings are making it difficult to fix circumstances.

  32. “it’s Ed Sheeran. He can do a full concert by himself. He’d probably save millions by the sound of it too.”

    No doubt there’s plenty of pedo billionaire money to keep a compliant performer above water. But this saga has been a meaningful cultural victory for the pro-humanity side

  33. But this saga has been a meaningful cultural victory for the pro-humanity side

    It has been quite astounding turn around in public opinion from the oppressor to the oppressed and a statement that would have been fine 2, 3 years ago was rightly trashed.

    Not going to affect brave Ed’s bank account or lifestyle, but it would be hard to put this week down as a win for the pro-ethnic cleansing, pro-genocide side of the debate, and perhaps I’m being optimistic but the whole ‘let’s both sides a genocide’ has at last been seen, at least by some, in the morally and intellectually bankrupt frame it has always deserved, and perhaps fewer people will use that bit of propaganda going forward.

  34. In the ’50s & ’60s, female participation in the workforce was far lower than it is today, which is around 47% for women and 53% for men. This means that many households have two breadwinners and should accordingly be able to absorb increases in interest rates.

    To highlight this, in Jan 1990 the cash rate peaked at 17.50% – great if you had cash to invest. This rapidly declined, and by 1992, the rate was slashed to 5.75%. The cash rate now is 4.35%, with a strong possibility of at least two consecutive rises of 25 basis points.

    Those who are complaining that they can’t afford their mortgage should look at their discretionary spending, particularly those who max out their credit cards, where the average interest rate for purchases is from 14.5%, and for cash advances, 21.99% per annum.

    My advice to my young relatives is to get a pair of scissors & cut the card(s) up, or only use a credit card when it’s absolutely necessary. Things went downhill in ’74, when Bankcard was introduced in Oz.

    There will be some who have been burdened with poor health & wages, or set back in other ways, and that’s unfortunate. But many complain about the cost of living and buy, for example, Crocs at $80, when you can get them for $8 from Aldi. Oh, I can’t be seen in them!

  35. This covers the Sheeran saga well I think.

    Ed Sheeran wants to stay out of politics. By quitting his tour, his support acts have exposed the hollowness of neutrality
    Laura Snapes
    Laura Snapes
    By standing behind support act Macklemore, who was removed from the tour for his vocal support of Palestine, these artists are demonstrating the self-sacrifice necessary to stand against those crushing free speech

    Thu 17 Sep 2026 02.43 AEST

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/commentisfree/2026/sep/16/ed-sheeran-macklemore-loop-tour-support-acts-quit-robert-kraft

  36. It has been said before, but the Reserve Bank’s weapon of choice (only weapon) is becoming increasingly marginalised. A growing proportion of the population benefit from higher interest rates – and we all have Super.

    https://theconversation.com/as-the-population-ages-the-rbas-interest-rate-policy-is-no-longer-fit-for-purpose-271098

    And don’t get me started on why the interest rate apparently can fix the problems caused by completely external inflation factors such as the oil price. And the efforts come at what cost?

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