The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief departs from the pack in recording a five-point drop in Coalition support to 20%, with Labor up two to 28%, One Nation up two to 26% and the Greens up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on his positive rating to 29%, up one on neutral to 26% and down two on negative to 45%; Angus Taylor is entirely unchanged at 23%, 50% and 27%; and Pauline Hanson is up two to 32%, up one to 24% and down three to 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 36%, Taylor down two to 21% and Hanson up three to 25%.
The poll also finds 65% agreeing that social media platforms “should be legally required to reduce risks” compared with 22% for an alternative option of them being “free to decide”. It was conducted last Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1583; extensive breakdowns of the voting intention results are as usual featured in the report on the pollster’s website.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two to 25%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 25%, the Coalition down two to 21.5%, and the Greens up one-and-a-half to 16%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5, and its leads over the Coalition are out from 53-47 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted September 7 to 13 from a sample of 1583.
Also out from Morgan this week was data compiled from its polling throughout this year breaking out One Nation support by country of birth. While many of the sub-samples would have been exceedingly small, it paints an interesting overall picture, having support for the party at 36% among those born in South Africa, around 30% among continental Europeans, around 25% among those born in Australia, the UK and New Zealand, and lower elsewhere, although the party managed 17% among those born in the Middle East compared with around 10% among those born in eastern and southern Asia.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 2:25 pm
There is no such thing as a sustainable car – ICE or EV.
————
Correct. Stop wasting money on freeways and build busways and train lines instead. This will leave roads nice and empty for people like me, who require them to make money.
Most of you can then scrap your pointless little electric cars and catch the bloody bus to work.
Albo’s carbon footprint alone has torpedoed zero net fifty
Yep. …and where they live in homes where the ceiling is a standard height and their personal housing footprint approximates that of, say, Japan.
Our per capita housing footprint is around nine times as big as that of Japan.
Rex, News Corp understood perfectly well that they were insulting their readers’ intelligence when they hatched “Airbus Albo”. If you had anything other than shit between your ears, you would never have gone within a million miles of it.
D&M
That is the technique used n newspapers and TV stations in Australia to make up a crisis.
All the Australian MSM does that. No exceptions.
Unfortunately, a lot Australian punters believe that sort of stuff.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 2:32 pm
I’m waiting patiently for SF to get stuck into the need to ground airline activity if the world is to get anywhere near zero net fifty..
————-
Remember way back when climate change became a known problem and people of your generation decided to do fuck all about it?
If you promise to give away all of your petrochemical manufactured life possessions to a homeless person, I’ll promise to never take an overseas holiday again.
M’s frown lines are getting deeper and deeper.
You really are a smarmy dill. I have personally planted enough trees to cover a life time’s emissions several times over. I am in the carbon black. I don’t fly because of the emissions. I do my shopping on foot. I wear out my clothese. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
I know that I can’t overcome the massive investment by the fossil fuel industry in trying to delay or stop climate action. Think of it as a widow’s mite.
Of course the fossil fuel profiteers can rely on all sorts of blustering loudmouths to run their lines for them for free.
BW
People will say “you are now opposed divorce. How are you a Labor voter”.
Just joking.
I also oppose a divorce because of ‘difference of opinions’ or ‘no fault divorce’. OMG, I would have voted against Whitlam Labor.
Marriage is not some ‘one night stand’. It is commitment 2 people made to each stay with each other “to hold from this day forward, for better, for worse, for richer, for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love and to cherish, till death do us part,”
It is common for people to invest jointly when they are together. There are lifetime advantages in this. Various rules are stacked in favour of couples who stay together.
When they part, the advantages don’t just stop.
Sometimes, because investments have to be wound down before their maturation time has come, disadvantages accrue.
Bring out your dead!
M just dumped Ellis in it.
Yes, BW. Mr Ellis might be inclined to offer himself for a video appearance now.
https://yapms.com/app/aus/vic_lower/2022330/blank?m=ucllddk1ai7bm6d
This is my prediction for the 2026 Victorian state election as of right now.
Is he somewhere safe like Lebanon?
nath @ #126 Friday, September 18th, 2026 – 1:34 pm
Strangely this 30% dont get daily news stories published about them, except when their children happen to be in the other 70% of the population.
BW
And earlier on he placed poor Anita under the bus when he said she provided virtually nothing. And, by inference, it pushed dear Charles further under the bus.
Thomas Brian Mutter
That would be a great result for the Greens, maybe they can add Albert Park.
Frankston is a toss up between Labor, ON and Liberal Party.
Teals are unlikely to win Hawthorn, can see the Greens coming second behind the Liberal Party.
Commentary on various instances of GOP candidates attempting to distance themselves from Trump as the midterms approach.
Been saying this for a while.
We’re going down the wrong track.
D&M
Professional middle-class people read the Guardian. The battlers generally do not.
That’s the paradox of contemporary left-wing politics. It’s a performance carried out on behalf of people who mostly never show up to watch it.
“This is my prediction for the 2026 Victorian state election as of right now.”
Thomas, Interesting, but what is your basis for these predictions? There seems to be so much to disagree with.
Hugh White has a piece on AUKUS in a Conversation podcast today that summarises the five year history of AUKUS. He describes it as “barking mad”.
https://theconversation.com/australias-barking-mad-bet-on-nuclear-submarines-the-aukus-deal-five-years-on-291988
I wonder why?
Ven:
People change. They can grow apart and out of love with each other. Some wind up in relationships with abusive psychos who don’t reveal their true nature until it is too late. Others can just be good people who lose their passion for each other and end up resenting and endlessly hurting each other as a result.
It is utterly insane to expect people to remain in a union forever, no ifs or buts. It is bad for them, and even worse for any children they may have. There is zero rational reason for enforcing such a rule besides the profoundly arrogant expectation that others must live their lives according to your own values.
The funny thing about the Ed Sheeran carry on is that if there is one major musician who is going to be the least effected by having supporting musicians quit on them, it’s Ed Sheeran. He can do a full concert by himself. He’d probably save millions by the sound of it too.
I was fascinated that Paloma Faith says ‘free Palestine’ to her children every night before bed.
I think she’s expecting a lot from a baby, a toddler and a ten year old.
meher b
Yep!
Socratessays:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 3:44 pm
Hugh White has a piece on AUKUS in a Conversation podcast today that summarises the five year history of AUKUS. He describes it as “barking mad”.
_________
I’ve been saying that for 5 years too.
Does Hugh White get AI to write his work? Its starting to sound all very familiar:
https://www.theage.com.au/opinion/if-we-strike-a-deal-with-japan-were-buying-more-than-submarines-20160314-gni3hl.html#ixzz43E1Rc1le
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-20/australia-attack-class-submarines-project-costs-delays-criticism/13074440
I have a feeling that if One Nation is getting 22-23% of the vote, a lot of it is going to be concentrated in Provincial and Outer Suburban seats, and since Labor is in such a weak position, they’ll sweep the vast majority of those seats. And that weakness in the Labor vote is also why I think the Greens would sweep inner city Melbourne. Hawthorn is a dark horse seat that I have going to the Teals just because of how social progressive it is.
Aaah, a piece of paper again, but Manila coloured not pink, fuchsia, pice etc
Aaah, a piece of paper again, but manila coloured not pink, fuchsia, puce etc.
Edit spelling
Apparently inflation is we peasants fault for spending too much and so we need more whippings and people out of work. Nothing at all to do with the Orange Menace and what he has done to global oil prices and all that flows from that. It’s your fault ya spendthrifts.
Thomas Brian Mutter, Friday, September 18, 2026 at 4:06 pm:
———————————-
TBM – I disagree that a ON PV of 22-23% entails that it is concentrated in any particular classification of seats. If we take the BludgerTrack PV swings: having the +20.6% swing to ON occurring alongside -7.2% from Labor and -10.5% from the Coalition (with the rest coming from Others), indicates to me that ON’s vote is more likely to be concentrated in Coalition seats than in Labor ones. But even then, it’s not certain.
Richard Flanagan – Albanese isn’t just betraying authors like me. He’s selling out Australia to AI colonists
https://archive.is/MWXRX#selection-211.0-211.89
Inflation may well be the fault of Trump, but the ability to reduce it requires the population to reduce their spending through increasing the cost of their debt.
That my dears is the way.
Pegasus, it’s a bit of a stretch to assert that copy&pasting stuff is authorship.
Edit: Ooops! I now see it’s Flanagan who is the author; not you. 🙂
TBM
Thanks for your response, I do not disagree that the ON vote would seemingly be concentrated in the Outer Suburban, Provincial and Regional seats, my disagreement is with the seats you identified. It is hard to say with any certainty which seats ON will win but I would count them as ‘Possible’ . In the possible category:
– Murray Plains
– Ripon
– Eureka
– Melton
– Sunbury
– Lara
– South Barwon
– Bellarine
– Yan Yean
– Carrum
– Frankston
– Pakenham
– Hastings
– Bass
– Morwell
Seats such as Cranbourne or the Narre Warrens are just too Non Anglo to have a substantial ON vote.
I also think that Hawthorn will be a Liberal retain – John Pessutto is well liked locally, and Box Hill could be a Lib pick up. Can’t see Ivanhoe being a Liberal pickup – the base Greens vote is too high and Labor have a very strong base in West Heidelberg.
I do agree that the Greens can pick up Prahran, Footscray and possibly Northcote or Pascoe Vale but Preston being close was a bit of a fluke last time.
An RBA Governor has commented that GLOBAL interest rates are closer to normal than they have recently been and since the GFC
So the balance in favour of borrowers has amended to neutral across borrowers and depositors
I repeat, it is not the interest rate settings the media and vested interests bang on about, it is the size of the debt being carried by a cohort only of Australian citizens
Interest rate settings have been accommodative since the GFC then the Pandemic – so it is well and truly the time to reward savers with equal consideration in setting interest rates
If anyone has not taken advantage of the past 19 years to use interest rate settings to pay down debt, more fool them
The current bout of inflation is not being caused by wage increases or excessive discretionary spending, it’s mainly increases in fuel prices, which for those who need their car for work (the majority for commuting and many for work travel) is definitely not discretionary. It’s not as if everyone’s taking long motoring holidays. In fact fuel price increases would act pretty much like an interest rate increase in the way it soaks up money that then is no longer for discretionary spending.
Interest rate increases are a blunt instrument at the best of times, but especially under current conditions.
‘You can’t put everything on immigration’: The suburbs at breaking point
https://archive.is/vOxcO#selection-197.0-197.72
“In suburbs groaning under these pressures, One Nation’s appeal is not necessarily its stance on immigration. It’s anger at a raft of other policy areas that have no easy solution.
“The overwhelming majority of people who have moved to One Nation over the last eight months, nine months, tell us they’ve done so because they’re sick of the two-party system,” says RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras.
The rapidly changing demographics of these areas on the fringes of Sydney and Melbourne, where more than 50 per cent of residents were born outside of Australia, mean that if One Nation is going to take any of these seats, then this election is likely to be its only chance.
“If they have a really good day, they could pick up some peri-urban electorates, both from Labor and the Coalition,” says Samaras. “But it’s always going to be challenging for them because the group of Australians that provide those gains are proportionately declining in number every year.”
Grange, and the grapes of lawful wrath:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/sep/18/labor-migration-plan-tony-burke-coalition-qantas-renewable-energy-ntwnfb?page=with:block-6aacd1698f085ee1fe6a029c#block-6aacd1698f085ee1fe6a029c
Mitch, just this side of Bernie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riCDjSxmwGM
David
The cash rate is now at a healthy level and 3.5% inflation, while on the high side is okay but the problem is lower inflation and lower rates created the expectation they were normal and policy settings are making it difficult to fix circumstances.
LOTY
What comes after free money is always a disappointment.
“it’s Ed Sheeran. He can do a full concert by himself. He’d probably save millions by the sound of it too.”
No doubt there’s plenty of pedo billionaire money to keep a compliant performer above water. But this saga has been a meaningful cultural victory for the pro-humanity side
It has been quite astounding turn around in public opinion from the oppressor to the oppressed and a statement that would have been fine 2, 3 years ago was rightly trashed.
Not going to affect brave Ed’s bank account or lifestyle, but it would be hard to put this week down as a win for the pro-ethnic cleansing, pro-genocide side of the debate, and perhaps I’m being optimistic but the whole ‘let’s both sides a genocide’ has at last been seen, at least by some, in the morally and intellectually bankrupt frame it has always deserved, and perhaps fewer people will use that bit of propaganda going forward.
In the ’50s & ’60s, female participation in the workforce was far lower than it is today, which is around 47% for women and 53% for men. This means that many households have two breadwinners and should accordingly be able to absorb increases in interest rates.
To highlight this, in Jan 1990 the cash rate peaked at 17.50% – great if you had cash to invest. This rapidly declined, and by 1992, the rate was slashed to 5.75%. The cash rate now is 4.35%, with a strong possibility of at least two consecutive rises of 25 basis points.
Those who are complaining that they can’t afford their mortgage should look at their discretionary spending, particularly those who max out their credit cards, where the average interest rate for purchases is from 14.5%, and for cash advances, 21.99% per annum.
My advice to my young relatives is to get a pair of scissors & cut the card(s) up, or only use a credit card when it’s absolutely necessary. Things went downhill in ’74, when Bankcard was introduced in Oz.
There will be some who have been burdened with poor health & wages, or set back in other ways, and that’s unfortunate. But many complain about the cost of living and buy, for example, Crocs at $80, when you can get them for $8 from Aldi. Oh, I can’t be seen in them!
This covers the Sheeran saga well I think.
It has been said before, but the Reserve Bank’s weapon of choice (only weapon) is becoming increasingly marginalised. A growing proportion of the population benefit from higher interest rates – and we all have Super.
https://theconversation.com/as-the-population-ages-the-rbas-interest-rate-policy-is-no-longer-fit-for-purpose-271098
And don’t get me started on why the interest rate apparently can fix the problems caused by completely external inflation factors such as the oil price. And the efforts come at what cost?