The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief departs from the pack in recording a five-point drop in Coalition support to 20%, with Labor up two to 28%, One Nation up two to 26% and the Greens up one to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on his positive rating to 29%, up one on neutral to 26% and down two on negative to 45%; Angus Taylor is entirely unchanged at 23%, 50% and 27%; and Pauline Hanson is up two to 32%, up one to 24% and down three to 44%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese up one to 36%, Taylor down two to 21% and Hanson up three to 25%.
The poll also finds 65% agreeing that social media platforms “should be legally required to reduce risks” compared with 22% for an alternative option of them being “free to decide”. It was conducted last Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1583; extensive breakdowns of the voting intention results are as usual featured in the report on the pollster’s website.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two to 25%, One Nation up one-and-a-half to 25%, the Coalition down two to 21.5%, and the Greens up one-and-a-half to 16%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation is out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5, and its leads over the Coalition are out from 53-47 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52.5-47.5 to 53-47 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted September 7 to 13 from a sample of 1583.
Also out from Morgan this week was data compiled from its polling throughout this year breaking out One Nation support by country of birth. While many of the sub-samples would have been exceedingly small, it paints an interesting overall picture, having support for the party at 36% among those born in South Africa, around 30% among continental Europeans, around 25% among those born in Australia, the UK and New Zealand, and lower elsewhere, although the party managed 17% among those born in the Middle East compared with around 10% among those born in eastern and southern Asia.
By the way, I currently expect republicans to win about 51 seats in the senate.
Probably not final.
The Politico newsletter doesn’t think much of pre-canned kneejerk virtue signalling…
The Australian Politico newsletter is not bad, you wouldn’t read this stuff in the MSM.. they seem to have someone just lurking the corridors of APH
https://www.politico.com/canberra-playbook
For those hanging out for the NSW Resolve poll, here ‘tis..
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/voters-deliver-verdict-on-guns-as-political-division-widens-20260918-p60y9d.html
The Albanese is government wants to ban the use of smart glasses in the Australian Public Service in a move that would be a global first.
Finance and Public Service Minister Katy Gallagher is seeking advice from the Australian Public Service Commission (APSC) on options to ban or restrict the use of glasses capable of recording, amid growing privacy and security concerns.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9352447/katy-gallagher-targets-smart-glasses-use-in-public-service/
Something odd here with Resolve, the Federal poll taken at the same time has much different primary numbers. Are the ON respondents that savvy?
In case people would like to read about revised migration policy as announced yesterday, The Guardian is reporting on both policy and ABS data, amidst the political spin (and subediting).
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/17/labor-immigration-students-families-overstay-visa-tony-burke
“The home affairs minister, Tony Burke, has unveiled long-awaited changes to immigration rules, promising to bring down net overseas migration (Nom) to 245,000 this financial year, and 225,000 in 2027-28.
On Thursday the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed that Nom had eased to 292,000 in the year to March, from 299,000 in December.” This is being driven by changes to reduce ongoing stays by various means e.g. working holidays and asylum, along with reducing family visas for some international students.
And Michelle Grattan’s article in The Conversation is worth a read as well:
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-burke-delivers-overdue-migration-baby-but-is-it-sturdy-enough-to-withstand-the-critics-291994
Tony Burke playing the role of Goldilocks. Who would have thought? 🙂
World News & Politics Patrol:
Australia and New Zealand could follow Canada into associated EU membership, Metsola tells Euronews: https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/australia-zealand-could-canada-associated-073056082.html
Trump threatens to stop trading with EU over ‘laughable’ membership offer to Canada: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/17/trump-calls-eu-offer-to-canada-associate-membership-laughable-threatens-tariffs
Carney says Canada will decide its own partnerships after Trump calls EU proposal ‘laughable’: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/carney-canada-eu-associate-member.html
Poland shuts airports and scrambles fighter jets over Russian drone threat: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/09/17/poland-shuts-airports-over-russian-drone-threat/?accesscontrol=facebookchannel_open
Russian military jets violate Lithuanian airspace, Italian fighters scrambled: https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2026/09/17/russian-military-jets-violate-lithuanian-airspace-italian-fighters-scrambled_80e985a6-17e5-43ce-8fd1-6fce67bcd94c.html
US clears way for $24.3 billion fighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-state-department-oks-possible-243-billion-military-aircraft-sale-saudi-arabia-2026-09-17/
Police have launched an investigation after a man was seen stalking a Jewish area in north London with what appeared to be an ‘assault rifle’, leaving terrified shoppers running for cover: https://metro.co.uk/2026/09/17/shoppers-scramble-man-walks-london-street-assault-rifle-29628027/
Reform to hand crypto investors hundreds of millions in tax breaks: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-farage-crypto-currency-tax-breaks-donations-b3051857.html
Ireland’s national broadcaster will boycott 2027 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation: https://apnews.com/article/ireland-eurovision-contest-israel-boycott-902293d4a2e18b50c2d0407f18df7e70
Trump Tells North Carolina Hurricane Relief Depends on Midterm Outcome: https://newrepublic.com/post/215533/donald-trump-north-carolina-hurricane-relief-funds-midterms
The quiet campaign to stop Kamala 2028 is growing louder: https://www.vox.com/politics/503096/midterms-actually-campaign-kamala-harris-2028-gavin-newsom
“I will f—— punch someone in the face for talking about Hegseth,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) told Raw Story just outside the U.S. Capitol: https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/i-will-punch-someone-in-the-face-republican-goes-berserk-over-heseth-impeachment-threat/
Some Gas Stations ‘Out of Diesel’ as Prices Surge: https://www.newsweek.com/some-gas-stations-out-of-diesel-as-prices-surge-12454753
Since 2025, Trump Made More Stock Trades Than All 535 Congress Members Combined: https://truthout.org/articles/since-2025-trump-made-more-stock-trades-than-all-535-congress-members-combined/
Judge says government must give 30 days’ notice before demolishing Kennedy Center: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/6096246-kennedy-center-emergency-hearing-demolition-trump-beatty/
Man who sprayed Minnesota Rep. Omar with vinegar sentenced to 14 months in prison: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/man-who-sprayed-minnesota-rep-omar-with-vinegar-sentenced-to-14-months-in-prison/
ICE agent charged with assault, lying about shooting, jailed in Minnesota: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/ice-agent-charged-with-assault-lying-about-shooting-arrested-minnesota-2026-09-17/
Kevin Bonham: DemosAU ALP 28 L-NP 20 ON 26 Grn 13 Ind/Other 13
No 2PP.
My estimates for this poll ALP 53.3 (+3.4) vs L-NP
ALP 52.5 (+1.5) vs ON
The Pentagon is considering pulling 25,000 or more U.S. troops out of Europe, nearly a third of the American forces stationed there, NBC News reports
The potential drawdown comes as NATO allies warn of a growing threat from Russia and raise fresh concerns about America’s commitment to European security.
Thanks, Hh
Hello? What do farmers think will happen to their crops if Hanson reduces the potential workforce by 750,000 over three years?
And where is all the shouty whining whinging about that?
If Russia remains fully engaged with fighting Ukraine then the european elements of NATO don’t need the US component to quickly trash Russia.
BW – exactly why Russian threats against Europe are hot air.
Thanks for the NSW numbers Sprocket, and Wombat last night
I think the one big difference between the state and federal numbers is…. Albanese. Interesting to see state Labor sub 30 though
Australian ICE ready to hit the streets. Interesting points by Dr Abul Rizvi, former deputy secretary of the department, saying officers should be well trained, plain clothed and unarmed
Border Force will likely tick the first box, although they are apparently recruiting for the roles at present so it’ll be interesting to see how much training is provided and when they start work. 12 months?
President Donald Trump’s electoral coalition is falling to pieces and one blunder is to blame, Vice President JD Vance’s former adviser Sohrab Ahmari argued Thursday.
“Well, it was nice while it lasted,” Ahmari wrote for UnHerd. “Beginning in 2016, Donald Trump won over large shares of working- and lower-middle-class Americans to the GOP” — and that ultimately blossomed into a coalition that won the 2024 election as well. “But now a re-realignment may be afoot.”
A recent poll done by Siena College for The New York Times, Ahmari noted, indicated “that nearly two-thirds of Americans earning less than $50,000 a year intend to vote for a Democratic nominee in the upcoming midterm election, while only about a third support a GOP nominee. If these numbers hold once voters actually head to the polls, they could spell serious trouble for the President and his party.”
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-iran-2677872558/
The Labor Government will stop international students who immigrate here from bringing their families with them.
One Nation will stop international students and skilled workers who immigrate here from bringing their families with them.
Yet the Greens talk of the Government’s changes as if they are “same same” with One Nation.
For most international students, ‘their family’ means their parents, siblings and grandparents.
For skilled workers, it mainly means their spouses and children.
Apples and oranges.
Interesting reporting of the changes in Asia
Article mentions One Nation and Trump
Not a good look imo
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/australia-bar-foreign-students-bring-partners-children-while-studying-6390571
newy boy says:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 7:34 am
The Labor Government will stop international students who immigrate here from bringing their families with them.
One Nation will stop international students and skilled workers who immigrate here from bringing their families with them.
Yet the Greens talk of the Government’s changes as if they are “same same” with One Nation.
For most international students, ‘their family’ means their parents, siblings and grandparents.
For skilled workers, it mainly means their spouses and children.
Apples and oranges.
_______
That isn’t true. The majority of international student family member visas are for spouses and children. I have had two PhD students bring over their spouse and children while studying here. Thankfully PhD students are exempt from these changes.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 7:09 am
Thanks, Hh
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/18/tony-burke-rejects-farmers-claims-immigration-changes-will-increase-food-prices-ntwnfb
Hello? What do farmers think will happen to their crops if Hanson reduces the potential workforce by 750,000 over three years?
And where is all the shouty whining whinging about that?
___________________
LNP and Greens are addicted to low wage workers, whether it be the families of international students or European backpackers.
The policy in totality biases the system towards Asia (ASEANs can still bring family) and the pacific (PALM is untouched) anyway – some may call this a softness in what was announced (fair), but there is no geostrategic policy purpose to prioritise Euro backpacker/”refugees” over the Pacific.
Invest in your business technology and pay your fucking workers better.
Unfortunately I can’t provide a link but if you can read an article by Kos Samaris in today’s Pearls and Irritations.
In my opinion very impressive
Here’s a link:
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/09/what-age-was-supposed-to-teach-us-all/
David Shoebridge interview on RN Breakfast this morning well worth a listen
Mentioned the approach pre 2015 included Community Support Officers (I think) who talked to visa overstayers about why they are still here and if the issue was financial supported them to leave. Apparently it had a 93% success rate
Sounds a lot better than locking people up in privatised facilities, apparently run by the same company Trump uses
400,000 on bridging visas with processing taking years.
Add business, farmers, tourism operators and universities to those disappointed by the changes and it’s sounding very messy
Of course Burke is saying he would have gone further but doesn’t think he’d get changes through Parliament. Michelle Grattan just called him cowardly for not trying
I said yesterday I hope the Burke gets they balance right, sounds like he failed
Time for work, enjoy your Friday folks
Go Swannies
Having just returned from a trip across the Gulf from Darwin to Cairns it was noticeable how essential the back-packer workforce is to both tourism and the general economy in that region.
HI , reading the restrictions to be introduced in the future on this workforce I said I thought the farmers and tourism business’ would be lobbying strongly for an easing of the restrictions.
The ABC radio news is carrying news of the coalition’s displeasure that their voters are going to lose their workers.
Que the ‘easing’ of restrictions along with plenty of publicity as to why. I’m guessing that this is the way Labor plans to be seen to be doing something about immigration, al the while making it very clear though the public discourse that immigrants are very important.
HBG
I’ve spotted my first oxymoron of the morning even before I’ve set out on my daily walk!
Looks like the previous DemosAU poll 4 weeks back – which was horrid for the Government – was a bit of an outlier.
The PhD stipend provided by the government is $27,00o a year. It generally takes 3-4 years to get a PhD. Having family support has been shown time and again to be critical to finishing the hardest degree the planet has.
Hard Being Green says:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 8:02 am
David Shoebridge interview on RN Breakfast this morning well worth a listen
Mentioned the approach pre 2015 included Community Support Officers (I think) who talked to visa overstayers about why they are still here and if the issue was financial supported them to leave. Apparently it had a 93% success rate
Sounds a lot better than locking people up in privatised facilities, apparently run by the same company Trump uses
400,000 on bridging visas with processing taking years.
Add business, farmers, tourism operators and universities to those disappointed by the changes and it’s sounding very messy
Of course Burke is saying he would have gone further but doesn’t think he’d get changes through Parliament. Michelle Grattan just called him cowardly for not trying
I said yesterday I hope the Burke gets they balance right, sounds like he failed
Time for work, enjoy your Friday folks
_________
You claim in the one post that Shoebridge says the revised immigration policy is too hard and that Grattan says it is cowardly. You conclude Burke failed to get the balance right.
Fascinating 🙂
I grew up as a fruit picker, we had 10,000 apples trees on my step fathers farm. The government paid us to push them all out in the 80s.
I recall as a small child living in the back seat of a car in the 70s whilst my single mother went from small country town to small country town picking grapes, asparagus, and other various crops. When I was a teenager I worked in other peoples orchards, and then as an 18 year old in the early 90s hitchhiked and paid my way around the country picking fruit. Right up until my 30s I ducked back into fruit picking during uni holidays as a way to top up my wage.
Most of the other workers were white Australians who lived at or below the poverty line, my own family had been itinerant farm workers for generations. But even so I would recommend this as a summer job to my kids when they become teenagers, it builds character and puts money in your pocket.
All that is now several decades ago for me now, but I am sure if you look hard enough that Australia is still there, you just wont see it from the armchair of PB blogging.
Mostly Interested says:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 8:19 am
The PhD stipend provided by the government is $27,00o a year. It generally takes 3-4 years to get a PhD. Having family support has been shown time and again to be critical to finishing the hardest degree the planet has.
_________
It takes a village!
p.s. the stipend is a little higher these days https://www.education.gov.au/research-block-grants/research-training-program#toc-rtp-stipend-rates
Griff
Hmm, I might have check my notes on stipends, I was told by the research head in my school it was $27k
Morning all. I agree with Boerwar, Bizzcan and others that the immigration reforms announced necessary were both necessary and justifiable. Importing large numbers of low skilled immigrants to fill low skilled and low paid jobs does Australia’s economy no favors. It only drives wages and productivity down. It probably deters investment in automation too.
The evidence from the decade of Liberal misrule in the 2010s proves it. All it does is create social division and inequality.
We should only make exceptions where Australia’s strategic interests justifies it, or we have some historic responsibility, as with Pacific nations.
Some universities offer the PhD based on previously written work. I know the ANU is one such. A Law School colleague got one on the basis of pedestrian work largely comprised of of his updating of a work written by a retired academic. I caused a fuss on the relevant university committee when I pointed out that a book written by the candidate on a foreign policy topic had no footnotes or other means of checking the book’s assertions. (The research school wanted the author on staff, and the PhD was awarded.)
My general point is that the standards of the PhD have been thoroughly trashed.
HH
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9352447/katy-gallagher-targets-smart-glasses-use-in-public-service/
I say go for it and ban the glasses. I find it hard to think of a legitimate use for these glasses that could not already be done by a smartphone. They would facilitate illegal acts.
Xanthippe works in Adelaide W&C hospital and part time at Adelaide Uni. There are many areas where public filming is not permitted for good reasons of patient and student privacy. Persons wearing theses glasses would make current privacy laws unenforceable.
Rafiki says:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 8:39 am
Some universities offer the PhD based on previously written work. I know the ANU is one such. A Law School colleague got one on the basis of pedestrian work largely comprised of of his updating of a work written by a retired academic. I caused a fuss on the relevant university committee when I pointed out that a book written by the candidate on a foreign policy topic had no footnotes or other means of checking the book’s assertions. (The research school wanted the author on staff, and the PhD was awarded.)
My general point is that the standards of the PhD have been thoroughly trashed.
_________
It was ever thus. Plenty of stories!
Rafiki @ #33 Friday, September 18th, 2026 – 8:39 am
No, thats why ANU just lost it’s VC and Chancellor. You fukc with standards at your own risk.
Rafiki
Your anecdotal experience of PhDs may be true but does not prove it to be generally true.
When I completed my PhD at UQ in an Arts faculty it had over 400 references. It went through three independent reviews as required by faculty rules.
I’d agree with MI that universities that don’t comply with their standards should face action. They devalue themselves.
There is some merit in the government’s proposed visa policy, especially with regard to families of Student Visa holders.
However, the proposed reduction in WHVs is ill-informed. We’ve just finished a 10,000km trip to Darwin and back. Everywhere we went was staffed by WHV youngsters. There would be no remote area tourism industry without them.
I’m hoping that the proposed WHV reduction is just a stalking horse to give the Coalition something to demand compromise on.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 8:29 am
_______________________
Went down picking apples at a little town called Geeveston once.
A bloody tough job. OHS was non-existent.
HH thanks for the morning roundup. IMO there is some good news for a change.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/australia-zealand-could-canada-associated-073056082.html
There could be a lot of economic benefit in Australia (and NZ) pursuing this idea. In the past it has always been very difficult for Australia to negotiate free trade deals with the EU because of the protectionist demnds of European farmers. But recent events have softened that.
Many countries in the EU genuinely want stronger trade with countries other than USA now. Likewise with security agreements. Australia, Canada and New Zealand would all benefit. The 30% of Australian citizens with European ancestry would benefit from greater freedom of movement.
This is potentially much more valuable to Australia than the often promoted CANZUK block, which is really just a nostalgic attempt to revive the UK economy. In fact, an EU associate membership would be far more useful to the UK too. This might give them a way in.
The polls are all over the place for Labor and L-NP but one thing is for sure is that Australian MSM and LNP im their eagerness to bring down ALP allowed ON to grow exponentially not the detriment of not only ALP but L-NP.
Enjoy your so called success, you stupid idiots.
People like OC, The Wombat, Diogenes, SF may say that the issues (I won’t classify them as problems) of people, who are thinking of voting for ON, are genuine. They may be genuine or not but ON is not the answer. You know what happens when people vote for parties like ON. Prime example is USA.
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JOINT STANDING COMMITTEE ON ELECTORAL MATTERS
Inquiry into the 2025 federal election
PUBLIC HEARING
Friday 18 September 2026
10.00 am Australia Post
11.00 am Close
Livestream – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75oEaG9GQw0
Hearings next week in Darwin and Perth – https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/About_the_House_News/Media_Releases/Electoral_Matters_Committee_heads_to_Darwin_and_Perth_for_September_hearings
Taylormade
Did you run into someone who told you that everything was hopeless and that we’ll all be rooned?
That would be some time PB poster Mundo, who I believe lives down that way.
Arange
When do think you can get that number down to 49 before mid-term? or is it possible at all?
Taylormade @ #39 Friday, September 18th, 2026 – 9:03 am
Gold. What year? I grew up in that valley.
If Russia remains fully engaged with fighting Ukraine then the european elements of NATO don’t need the US component to quickly trash Russia.
————————————————–
They don’t want to attack Russia tho. They will do almost too much to avoid it (especially without strong backing or prompting from the US). And Putin knows this and will see how lukewarm of a war he can conjure up. Possibly with the tacit approval of Trump. Maybe even with implicit social media posts showing some joy about Russian lukewarm attacks.
And that assumes Europe stays unified. Who knows what stance European far right parties will take on this. They aren’t all going to be as level headed as Meloni.
The unknown is Putin’s health. Does he want to play a long game of cold/lukewarm warfare? Or is this sort of thing what he lives for?
The other unknown is Lukashenko. The little dictator that could. Is he a pawn or not? It is only 30km or so of Lithuania between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
meher baba says:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 8:16 am
HBG
David Shoebridge interview…well worth a listen
I’ve spotted my first oxymoron of the morning even before I’ve set out on my daily walk!
Thank you for the laugh.
I had just thought to myself – what ridiculousness do we have today and Boom, there it was.
Luigi Smithsays:
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 9:01 am
However, the proposed reduction in WHVs is ill-informed. We’ve just finished a 10,000km trip to Darwin and back. Everywhere we went was staffed by WHV youngsters. There would be no remote area tourism industry without them.
__________________
Then they can be PALM workers instead, though perhaps too brown for such establishments.
Sprocket
In Cessnock ON 50% PV, Labor 24%. Seriously?
WTF is that. Really, WTBF is that?
Oh, but OC will said that a lot of Cessnock people have concerns with lot of issues. They think ON is the answer for those concerns.
I lived near Cessnoya longtime ago( more than 30 years ago). At the time they said that Cessnock won’t last much longer because the mining is dying.