Two new state poll results for Victoria, with the November 28 election now only a little two months away (and my state election guide on the way shortly):
• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll that as the Coalition down a point to 29%, One Nation up three to 25% (after a four-point dip last time), Labor up a point to 24% and the Greens up a point to 15%. Respondent-allocated two-party preferred measures have the Coalition leading Labor 56-44, but Labor leading One Nation 53-47. The poll was conducted September 1 to 14 from a sample of 2371. RedBridge Group’s Kos Samaras offers an exposition on the results and promises more detail to follow.
• Nine Newspapers’ Resolve Strategic series, which is reporting Victorian state results on a monthly basis until the election, records little change on last time, with Labor steady on 25%, the Coalition up a point to 28%, One Nation steady on 23% and the Greens steady on 12%. Jess Wilson is up two on preferred premier to 28%, with Ben Carroll unchanged on 20% and One Nation’s Warren Pickering down two to 8%, leaving an unchanged 44% undecided. Further questions find 49% favouring pausing or cancelling the Suburban Rail Loop, with 27% preferring that it proceed as planned; 35% support for the government’s policy to fund dental care clinics, with 43% favouring its cancellation. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 967.
• There is also a result from Roy Morgan that combines 643 responses from a full year of polling in the Greens-held seats of Melbourne, Brunswick and Richmond, which finds the Greens on 41%, Labor on 35%, the Liberals on 14% and One Nation on 2%. The combined result across the three seats in 2022 was Greens 38.7%, Labor 30.6% and Liberal 15.7%.
Other recent election-related news:
• After a long period of holding its fire, One Nation has lately been unveiling lower house candidates on its website. One such is Michael Piastrino, an Albert Park hairdressing salon owner who demonstrated a penchant for Trumpian rhetoric as Liberal candidate for Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave in 2022, who is running against former Liberal leader in Berwick.
• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports the only nominee to succeed Jacinta Allan as Labor candidate in Bendigo East is Timothy Rickwood, a teacher at Bendigo Senior Secondary College who shares Allan’s alignment with the Socialist Left.
• In Bendigo West, where Labor member Maree Edwards likewise announced last month that she would not seek re-election, the the two nominees for preselection are Brenton Baldwin, a former staffer to Jenny Mikakos, and Toby Heydon, who serves Forest Creek ward on Mount Alexander Shire Council.
• Controversial Liberal-turned-independent upper house MP Moira Deeming has joined Family First and will seek re-election in Western Metropolitan region as its lead candidate.
• David Ettershank, who holds an upper house seat in Western Metropolitan for Legalise Cannabis, has announced he will not seek re-election.
Important to note those are preferences that flowed via the Greens rather than only preferences directly from Greens voters